Service Plays Saturday 12/7/13

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From This Week's PLATINUM SHEET
STATFOX FORECASTER

OHIO STATE (127) AT MICHIGAN STATE (128)
Latest Line: Michigan St. +5.5; Total: 51.5

One of the nation’s top offenses meets arguably the nation’s top D in the Big Ten title game. These teams met in East Lansing last season, with Ohio State holding on for a 17-16 win despite three turnovers. The Buckeyes are 24-0 SU under Urban Meyer, though they’ve failed to cover in their last three and allowed 41 points to struggling Michigan last week. This will be their first postseason game since 2011. MSU has held five of its last six opponents to six point or less. They’ve won eight in a row SU (6-2 ATS).
FORECASTER: Ohio State 23, Michigan State 22
 
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Stephen Nover

121 Missouri 2.0(-110) triple-dime bet

126 Arizona St. -3.0(-110) double-dime bet
 

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Pregame (so called) pros record from 1st jan 2013 till till Dec 5th 2013

Pro NameAmount W/L 2013 ($100 per unit)
Leonard-6.47
Essler-12.64
GF+2.26
Shaker+4.98
Marco-76.43
Scott-167.98
Nover-52.06
VR-27.32
 
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S & P INVESTORS............NCAA FOOTBALL GOY...........RICE +7 (BUY HOOK)

They hit NFL GOY last night on JAX +3.5 as posted in Service Plays yesterday
 

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Phil Steele Inside the PressBox Best Bets:

Stanford
Marshall
 
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CKO
11 Missouri over Auburn

Late Score Forecast:
11 Missouri 31- Auburn 24
SEC Championship at Atlanta, Georgia

10 *CONNECTICUT over Memphis
Late Score Forecast:
*CONNECTICUT 28 - Memphis 17

10 *BAYLOR over Texas
Late Score Forecast:
*BAYLOR 49 - Texas 24
 
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THE GOLD SHEET
♦♦♦♦ KEY RELEASES ♦♦♦♦
NORTHERN ILLINOIS by 12 over Bowling Green
ARIZONA STATE by 14 over Stanford
MICHIGAN STATE by 4 over Ohio State
 
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GREEN SHEET
COLLEGE KEY SELECTIONS
RATING 3 UTAH STATE (+3) over Fresno State
RATING 2 FLORIDA STATE (-28½) over Duke
RATING 1 TEXAS (+13½) over Baylor
RATING 1 OKLAHOMA STATE (-10½) over Oklahoma
We rank our Key Selections in order of preference, grading them on a scale of 1 to 5 with 5 being
a top selection.
 
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POINTWISE
COLLEGE KEY RELEASES
BAYLOR over Texas RATING: 1
OKLAHOMA STATE over Oklahoma RATING: 3
STANFORD over Arizona State RATING: 4
UTAH STATE over Fresno State RATING: 5
RATED "1" PLAYS THIS SEASON: 19-9
TOP 5 COLLEGE THIS YEAR: 44-25
 
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POWERSWEEP
KEY SELECTION
Big 10 CHAMPIONSHIP GAME • LUCAS OIL STADIUM • INDIANAPOLIS, IN
3* † Ohio St over Michigan St. - OSU has won 8 of the L/9 in the series and has covered
6 of the L/8. In 2008 we used our 5H Oct GOM on OSU (-3) and they delivered a 45-7 win.
In 2011 MSU had 24 Ohio natives on its roster (27 this year!) and upset the Buckeyes 10-7
(+3) at the Shoe. LY OSU ret’d the favor winning 17-16 (+2’) LY at MSU. TY’s B10 champ gm is
easily the most important B10 gm since #1 OSU beat #2 UM back in 2006. A win here puts the
Buckeyes in the BCS Champ gm while MSU looks to be in good shape for their 1st Rose Bowl
appearance s/’87 win or lose. The Buckeyes come in winners of 24 str gms (longest streak s/
USC ‘03-’05) but LW had to hold on for dear life over archrival UM 42-41 (-16) getting an int
on a 2-pt conv w/:32 left. It will be Irresistible Force vs Immovable Object here as the Buckeye
ground gm is arguably the best in the country avg 321 ypg (7.0) and will be taking on a MSU
rush D that is all’g just 65 ypg (2.2). The Spartans finished an unbeaten B10 season for the
1st time s/’66 beating Minnesota 14-3 (-16’) LW. While they have held 5 of their L/6 opp w/o a
td, that one opp, Neb, was one of the better offenses they faced TY (#39). They all’d 28 pts and
392 yds incl 182 on the ground and won the gm due to 5 Husker TO’s. Now they take our #4
off that is avg 48 ppg and 531 ypg. Meyer has the big gm exp, the Bucks had a wake-up call
LW, now face a QB that can’t beat them w/his legs and their pass rush can tee off on MSU QB
Cook (avg 4.6 sks per gm L/5). OSU heads to Pasadena and we’re not talking about playing
on January 1st.
FORECAST: Ohio St by 11 over Michigan St.

OTHER SELECTION
PAC-12 CHAMPIONSHIP GAME • SUN DEVIL STADIUM • TEMPE, AZ
2* Stanford over ARIZONA ST - This is the only rematch this year in a championship gm as
Stanford beat Arizona St 42-28 (-6’) back in mid-Sept on the Farm. The gm should go down as
a misleading statistical gm. Some may point out that ASt had a 417-391 yd and 20-19 FD edge
but all you had to do was watch the 1H of the gm. SU absolutely dominated with a 256-103 yd
edge and led 29-0 at the half. They extended it to 39-7 before they put the backups in and ASt
got 197 of their yds on 3 td drives. We easily cashed our Button #9 NCSportsline Comp Totals
play on the OVER. We also leaned with Stanford in the write-up prior to the gm calling them
to win by DD’s as they have won 3 str in the series (2-1 ATS). This is Stanford’s 2nd str P12
Champ gm as they beat UCLA 27-24 (-9) LY. However, that gm was at home and this will be on
the road. LW they beat ND 27-20 (-15’) as they dominated the LOS w/a 261-64 rush yd edge.
Speaking of domination, the Sun Devils turned LW’s Territorial Cup into a run away w/a 58-21
win (-11) over Arizona. However, it should be noted that ASt only had 22-20 FD and 478-424
yd edges as they benefitted from 4 UA TO’s. They are 7-0 SU/5-2 ATS at home TY outscoring
their opp by an avg of 49-21 (+156 ypg). This is only the 3rd time Stanford has been an AD in
the L/3 yrs. They are 1-0-1 ATS in that role taking a ND tm that played in the BCS Champ gm
LY to OT before losing 20-13 (+7) and then upsetting #1 Oregon 17-14 (+20’) in OT. They have
more exp in big-time gms, have our #3 D and will benefit from an ASt tm most likely playing
w/o RB Marion Grice (DNP LW) who leads the tm in rushing, is #3 in rec and has 20 td’s.
FORECAST: Stanford by 1 over ARIZONA ST
 
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STATFOX PLATINUM SHEET
STATFOX Super Situations
• Play Against - Road underdogs (OKLAHOMA) - off a conference win as an underdog of 6+
points against opponent off a conference win by 10+ points.
• The situation’s record is 31-3 over the last 10 seasons (91.2%, +27.7 units).
Rating = 5*
• Play On - Favorites of 21.5 to 31 points (FLORIDA STATE) - after 7 or more consecutive
straight up wins.
• The situation’s record is 49-15 over the last 10 seasons (76.6%, +32.5 units).
Rating = 4*
• Play On - Home favorites (MARSHALL) - off a home conference win against opponent
off a close conference win by 7 points or less.
• The situation’s record is 72-34 since 1992 (67.9%, +34.6 units).
Rating = 3*
SITUATIONAL TEAMS POWER TRENDS
• BAYLOR is 10-0 ATS (+10 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days
rest over the last 3 seasons. The average score was BAYLOR 51.5, OPPONENT 25.0.
PLAY ON BAYLOR
Rating = 4*
• UTAH ST is 8-0 ATS (+8 Units) versus good offensive teams - averaging >=5.9 yards/play
over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was UTAH ST 39.9,OPPONENT 16.1.
PLAY ON UTAH STATE
Rating = 3*
• AUBURN is 7-0 ATS (+7 Units) vesus good rushing teams - averaging >=4.75 rushing
yards/carry this season.
The average score was AUBURN 37.6, OPPONENT 29.1.
PLAY ON AUBURN
Rating = 3*
 
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Saturday's NCAAF betting cheat sheet: Afternoon action

Marshall Thundering Herd at Rice Owls (+6.5, 61)

The Rice Owls are ranked 62nd on offense, averaging 420.5 yards per game. The Owls are averaging 239.5 yards rushing and 181.0 yards passing so far
this season.

The Marshall Thundering Herd are ranked ninth on offense, averaging 513.2 yards per game. The Thundering Herd are averaging 219.9 yards rushing and
293.3 yards passing so far this season.

LINE: Rice opened as 4.5-point home dogs and have move slightly to +6.5. The total is up to 61.
WEATHER: There is a 50 percent chance of rain with a 12 mph wind blowing towards teh South end zone.
TRENDS:

* Marshall is 4-0 ATS in its last four games versus a team with a winning record.
* Over is 6-0 in Marshall's last six games overall.
* Under is 6-0 in Rice's last six games versus a team with a winning record.

Oklahoma Sooners at Oklahoma State Cowboys (-10, 57)

The Sooners defeated the Mountaineers early in the season but went on to lose to Texas and Baylor - two teams that Oklahoma State defeated - by a combined margin of 77-32. This season, Oklahoma sports a resume that includes victories over Notre Dame and and Texas Tech, as well as last week's 41-31 win over Kansas State.

The Cowboys have won seven straight games since their only loss of the season - a 30-21 defeat against a West Virginia team that wound up 4-8. The Cowboys have scored at least 20 points in 50 consecutive contests, but their defense quietly is much improved, holding Kansas, Texas and Baylor to an average of 12 points over the last three games.

LINE: The line opened at -10.5 and has moved to -10. The total opened at 58 and has been bet down to 57.
WEATHER: There is a 14 percent chance of precipitation with temperatures in the high teens.
TRENDS:

* Oklahoma is 6-2 ATS in its last eight meetings.
* Favorite is 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings.
* Oklahoma State is 6-0 ATS in its last six games overall.


Central Florida Knights at Southern Methodist Mustangs (OFF)

Blake Bortles' 167.3 passer rating has him in elite company, ranked seventh in the nation and his 276.2 passing yards per game falls behind only Gilbert and Louisville's Teddy Bridgewater in the conference. Central Florida's offense ranks 30th in the nation, averaging 34.6 points.

SMU quarterback Garrett Gilbert, is listed as questionable with a knee sprain. While the Mustangs have proven they can score in bunches with Gilbert under center, last week's goose egg against Houston is a concern, as is SMU's conference-worst 34.8 points per game, especially against the Knights' offense.

LINE: The line is currently off the board.
WEATHER: There is a 40 percent chance of ice pellets with an eight mph cross field wind.
TRENDS:
* Favorite is 4-0-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Home team is 3-0-1 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Central Florida is 3-1-1 ATS in its last five meetings.

Memphis Tigers at Connecticut Huskies (+1, 43)

Memphis has been ranked in the top 20 in the nation in total defense for most of the season but slipped to 27th after giving up a season highs for total yards (534) and points (41) to Temple.

Redshirt freshman quarterback Casey Cochran took over the starting job three weeks ago and has rejuvenated the offense as the Huskies have put up 21 or more points in three straight games after doing so only twice in their first eight contests.

LINE: UConn opened at +1 dogs. The total is currently at 43.
WEATHER: There is a 12 percent chance of rain with a eight mph wind blowing towards the Southeast end zone.
TRENDS:

* Memphis is 5-1 ATS in its last six road games.
* Under is 5-0 in Memphis' last five road games.
* Under is 4-0 in Connecticut's last four home games.

Texas Longhorns at Baylor Bears (-16.5, 71.5)

The Longhorns have scored at least 30 points in seven of their last eight contests, thanks in large part to an improved rushing attack that rolled up 281 yards and three touchdowns against Texas Tech on Thanksgiving night.

The Bears, who are currently averaging 55.4 points and 635.1 yards, have received a stunningly efficient season from Perry, as the junior quarterback has 3,557 passing yards with 28 touchdowns and two interceptions, in addition to 11 rushing scores.

LINE: Baylor opened at -13.5 and have been bet up to -16.5. The total opened at 73.5 and have moved down to 71.5.
WEATHER: There is a 40 percent chance of ice pellets with a 10 mph cross field wind.
TRENDS:

* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Texas is 1-5 ATS in its last six meetings.

Missouri Tigers vs Auburn Tigers +1.5, 59)

Game will be played at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta, Georgia

Missouri averages 489.5 total yards and rank 18th in the nation in rushing (236.9) with Henry Josey leading the way (951 yards, 13 TDs). The defense is tied for fourth in the nation with 37 sacks, has forced 27 turnovers and has at least one takeaway in 42 consecutive games, the longest active streak in the FBS.

Tre Mason, the SEC's leading rusher with 1,317 yards and 18 TDs, and dual threat quarterback Nick Marshall (1,627 passing yards, 11 TDs, 5 INTs; 922 rushing yards, 10 TDs) lead an offense that ranks fifth in rushing (318.3) and 15th in total yards (491).

LINE: Auburn opened at -1.5 and has moved to +1.5. The total is up to 59.
WEATHER: N/A.
TRENDS:

* Missouri is 6-1 ATS versus teams with a winning record.
* Auburn is 7-0 ATS in its last seven conference games.
* Over is 6-1 in Missouri's last seven games overall.
 
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Saturday's NCAAF betting cheat sheet: Evening action

South Florida Bulls at Rutgers Scarlet Knights (-4, 46.5)

South Florida hasn't won at Rutgers since 2005 and will head north without two seniors on defense. Freshman quarterback Mike White (79-of-144 for 942 yards,
three touchdowns, eight interceptions) - the team's fourth starting quarterback of the season - will make his fifth straight start.

The Scarlet Knights will likely be without Leonte Carroo (upper body), who is a touchdown away from tying the school's single-single receiving TD record. The Scarlet Knights are ranked seventh in the country in rushing yards allowed (102.3) but are minus-10 in turnovers.

LINE: Rutgers opened at -7 but have moved down to -4. The total is currently at 46.5.
WEATHER: There is a 12 percent of rain.
TRENDS:

* Underdog is 7-1 ATS in their last eight meetings.
* South Florida is 0-6 ATS in the last six meetings.
* Under is 9-1 in Rutgers' last 10 games following a SU loss.

Standford Cardinal at Arizona State Sun Devils (-3, 56)

The Cardinal boast an impressive resume that includes victories over Washington, UCLA, Oregon State, Oregon and Notre Dame, in addition to their earlier win against Arizona State.Stanford ranks 13th in the country in points allowed (19 per game) and has yielded no more than 20 points in any of its last six contests.

The Sun Devils improved to 7-0 at home last week with a convincing 58-21 victory over Arizona, as they led 30-7 at the half and cruised despite the absence of leading rusher Marion Grice (leg). D.J. Foster led the way with 124 rushing yards and two touchdowns, helping Arizona State improve its scoring output for the fourth straight game (20, 30, 38 and 58).

LINE: The Sun Devils opened as 3.5-point home faves and have moved slightly to -3. The total opened at 56.
WEATHER: There is a 10 percent chance of rain with a 10 mph wind blowing across the field.
TRENDS:

* Favorite is 5-0-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Home team is 3-0-1 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings at Arizona State.

Duke Blue Devils vs Florida State Seminoles (-29.5, 62.5)

The game will be played at Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, North Carolina.

The No. 20 ranked Blue Devils, who have won eight in a row, were picked to finish last in the Coastal Division and are heavy underdogs Saturday, but have come from behind to win their past four contests.

The Seminoles, who ascended to the No. 1 ranking after Alabama lost at Auburn last weekend, average 53.7 points per game. Quarterback Jameis Winston is a frontrunner for the Heisman Trophy, averaging a touchdown pass every 9.1 pass attempts for a Florida State offense that has scored 50 or more points seven times in 12 games.

LINE: The line opened at Florida State -28.5 and moved up to -29.5. The total opened at 61.5 and has jumped up to 62.5.
WEATHER: There is a 76 percent chance of rain with a 9 mph wind blowing across the field.
TRENDS:

* Favorite is 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Road team is 7-2 ATS in their last nine meetings.
* Blue Devils are 0-5 ATS in their last five meetings.

Louisiana Lafayette at South Alabama (-3, 58.5)

The UL Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns are ranked 42 on offense, averaging 443.7 yards per game. The Ragin' Cajuns are averaging 220.2 yards rushing and 223.5 yards passing so far this season.

The South Alabama Jaguars are ranked 48 on offense, averaging 431.2 yards per game. The Jaguars are averaging 171.0 yards rushing and 260.2 yards passing so far this season.

LINE: The line has held steady at South Alabama -3. The total has moved up from 58 to 58.5.
WEATHER: There is a 39 percent chance of rain.
TRENDS:

* UL Lafayette is 0-4 ATS in its last four games overall.
* South Alabama is 5-1 ATS in its last six games following a SU win.
* Over is 8-0-1 in UL Lafayette's last nine games following a SU loss.

Ohio State Buckeyes at Michigan State Spartans (+5, 51.5)

Game will be played at Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, Indiana

Ohio State has won a school-record 24 straight games but needed a failed two-point try in the final seconds last week to escape Michigan with a one-point victory. Braxton Miller and Carlos Hyde have combined to rush for 1,070 yards and 13 touchdowns over the past three games against Illinois, Indiana and Michigan.

The Spartans boast the nation’s top rushing, total and pass efficiency defense and complement it with the fifth-best turnover margin (plus-15) in FBS. They are also second nationally in third-down defense (28.7 percent) and fourth in scoring defense (11.8 points per game).

LINE: The line opened +5.5 and is now +5. The total hasn't moved from 51.5.
WEATHER: N/A.
TRENDS:

* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings
* Ohio State is 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine meetings.
* Road team is 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings.

Utah State Aggies at Fresno State Bulldogs (-2.5, 60.5)

The Aggies were expected to struggle after losing starting quarterback Chuckie Keeton to a season-ending knee injury, but they rallied behind freshman backup Darell Garretson, senior running back Joey DeMartino (12 touchdowns) and a stellar defense.

Fresno State's offense ranks fourth nationally in scoring at 47.3 points per game, and senior quarterback Derek Carr has thrown 45 touchdowns with only five interceptions.

LINE: The Bulldogs opened as 3-point home faves and are now -2.5. The total is currently 60.5.
WEATHER: There is a 10 percent chance of rain.
TRENDS:

* Utah State is 5-2 ATS in its last seven meetings.
* Underdog is 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Fresno State is 1-5 ATS in its last six home games.
 

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