Service Plays Saturday 12/6/14

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

StatFox Super Situations

CFB | OKLAHOMA ST at OKLAHOMA
Play Against - Road underdogs (OKLAHOMA ST) off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival against opponent off a home blowout win by 28 points or more
81-40 since 1997. ( 66.9% | 37.0 units )
1-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 1.0 units )

CFB | OKLAHOMA ST at OKLAHOMA
Play Against - Road underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (OKLAHOMA ST) after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, with a winning percentage of between 40-49% on the season
41-15 over the last 5 seasons. ( 73.2% | 24.5 units )
8-6 this year. ( 57.1% | 1.4 units )

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dr. Bob


*BOISE STATE (-21) 46 Fresno State 19

Sat Dec-06-2014 at 07:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 130 Over/Under 68.5

Boise State only won by 10 points, 37-27, when they hosted Fresno State earlier this season but Fresno applied to a 51-18-3 ATS situation for that game, which kept me from playing the Broncos. This time there is nothing to keep me from playing Boise State, as Fresno actually applies to a 39-108-1 ATS road dog situation that is 0-2 ATS when applying to a team playing as the visitor in their conference championship game. I’m not playing this game based on that situation but rather based on my math model, which gives Boise a profitable 54.4% chance of covering at -21 points based on the historical performance of my model.

Boise State’s offense had a down game in their first meeting with Fresno, as the Broncos should have gained more than 498 yards at 6.2 yards per play given that they have an offense that is 1.0 yards per play better than average (6.7 yppl against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average team) and Fresno’s defense would allow 6.4 yppl on the road to an average FBS attack (0.6 yppl worse than an average team). Fresno’s average defensive rating is actually worse than that, as the Broncos have allowed 6.3 yppl to teams that would combine to average just 5.3 yppl against an average defensive team. However, that average is skewed by a horrendous game against sub-par Wyoming offense in which the Bulldogs gave up 694 yards at 9.9 yppl. My model adjusts for outliers, which is why I have Fresno’s defense rated at 0.6 yppl worse than average instead of 1.0 yppl worse than average. The math projects 593 yards at 7.5 yppl for Boise State in the rematch, as quarterback Grant Hedrick should average more than the 9.0 yards per completion that he averaged in the first game (his lowest average of the season) given that Hedrick averages 12.4 ypc for the season and Fresno has allowed 14.1 ypc this year. Hedrick completed 70% of his passes in that first game against the Bulldogs, so it’s not like his receivers weren’t getting open. If Fresno would have allowed their normal 14 yards per completion in that game then Boise would have had 594 total yards, which is the same as what’s projected for this game by the math model. Even with their better than normal result against Boise State in their first meeting the Bulldogs still allowed an average of 49.3 points to the 3 good offensive teams that they faced this season (USC, Nebraska, and Boise) and Boise State has rung up 50 points or more in 5 of their last 7 games and should approach that number in this game.

It will be a challenge for Fresno’s offense to keep up, as the Bulldogs sub-par attack (5.6 yppl against teams that would allow 6.0 yppl to an average team) is up against a better than average Boise State defense that rates at 0.4 yppl better than average after adjusting for outliers. Boise’s average defensive rating is just 0.1 yppl better than average but they allowed New Mexico’s option attack to gain 627 yards at 9.7 yppl, which skewed that average upwards. Fresno doesn’t run any option, so Boise’s problems defending the option won’t surface in this game and the Bulldogs are projected to gain a modest 343 yards at 4.7 yppl in this game. Fresno gained 313 yards at 5.3 yppl in the earlier meeting but that yppl average was skewed by a 76 yard run and the Broncos averaged just 4.1 yppl in their other 58 offensive plays that game while one of their other touchdowns was after Boise turned the ball over at their own 5 yard line. Fresno actually only had two scoring drives of more than 2 plays in that game, both resulting in field goals, and I don’t see them having any consistent success offensively this time around either (6 of their 13 drives in the first meeting were 3 and out).

The first meeting between these teams was very misleading and it should ensure that Boise State is focused more than they would be had that first game been the blowout that this game is likely to be. There is value on the side of Boise and the situation is favorable this time around and I’ll make a small play on the Broncos.





I’ll take Boise State in a 1-Star Best Bet at -21 points or less.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SHEEP

Boise St -19 ($800)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dave Cokin:

121 Louisiana Tech +12
128 Ohio State +4

 

[predatorfl]

ROOT

pinnacle OHIO STATE
inner circle MISSOURI
perfect play FSU
no limit OREGON
millioniares BAYLOR

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Chris Torissi:

5* Louisiana Tech +11

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Greg Shaker | CFB Total
Sat, 12/06/14 - 4:00 PM


triple-dime bet
Missouri / Alabama Over 48.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

sleepyj | CFB Total
Sat, 12/06/14 - 10:00 PM


double-dime bet
Fresno St. / Boise St. Over 68.0

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Ben Burns football

Breakfast club Iowa st

Best bet Tulane

Conf championship goy Florida st

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Ivey Walters

CFB Double Dime 2% Ohio State +4.5

 

[68UpperNorth]

bookieshunter NCAA College Football

#117 K State +7 @ #118 Baylor (2*)
#115 Houston +7.5 @ # 116 Cincinnati (2*)
#121 La. Tech +10 @ #122 Marshall (3*)

 

[sportscrazy]

Norm Hitzges

December 5-8
Here are your Picks of the Pole for the football games of Dec. 5-8.




COLLEGE FOOTBALL


DOUBLE PLAYS: Oklahoma -21 Oklahoma State
Missouri +14 1/2 Alabama
Georgia Tech +4 Florida state


SINGLE PLAY's



TCU -34 Iowa State
SMU +12 UConn
Kansas State +7 1/2 Baylor
La. The +11 Marshall
Ohio State +4 Wisconsin

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

EZWINNERS

NCAAF

4* (125) Florida State -$185

NCAAB

1* (564) Tulane +1.5
1* (585) Weber State +2

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dr. Bob

*Kansas State (+7 ½) 32 BAYLOR 31
Sat Dec-06-2014 at 04:45 PM Pacific Rotation: 117 Over/Under 66.5 - Matchup Stats
Kansas State Money Line Play at +250 for 0.5 Stars
Kansas State continues not to get the respect that they deserve despite their 8-1 ATS record over their last 9 games and coach Bill Snyder’s 154-101 (60.4%) ATS record in all games since 1990 (his second season in his first stint with the Wildcats). The Wildcats have played just one bad game all season, a 20-41 loss at TCU, as their other loss was 14-20 loss to Auburn in a game they should have won. Even that TCU loss wasn’t that bad, as the Wildcats averaged 7.0 yards per play and allowed 6.7 yppl in that game. Kansas State is every bit as good as Baylor is from the line of scrimmage and the Wildcats are much, much better in special teams.

Baylor’s strength is obviously their offense, which has averaged 569 yards and 47.8 points in 10 games against FBS opposition. However, this season’s Bears aren’t quite as explosive when you look at it from a yards per play perspective, as they’ve averaged 6.3 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 5.6 yppl to an average team. While being 0.7 yppl better than average is good, it’s actually not as good as Kansas State’s offense, which has averaged 6.5 yppl against FBS teams that would combine to allow 5.4 yppl to an average team. If I assume that Baylor quarterback Bryce Petty plays (he’s questionable with concussion symptoms but had a full practice on Thursday and said he expects to play), and throw out his not so good game 1 performance against SMU when he was struggling with an injury, then Baylor’s offense would rate at 1.0 yppl better than average, which is still not quite as good as Kansas State’s +1.1 yppl rating. Baylor actually does have an overall edge offensively because the Bears run a lot more plays than their opponents but that edge is not as significant as the edge that Kansas State has on defense.

Kansas State’s defense has yielded only 5.1 yards per play this season to FBS opponents despite facing a schedule of teams that would combine to average 6.2 yppl against an average FBS defense and while the Wildcats didn’t play well against TCU and Oklahoma, they did hold Auburn’s prolific attack to just 5.0 yppl and 20 points and also kept the very good offenses of Texas Tech and West Virginia in check (just 13 point for Texas Tech and 5.1 yppl and 20 points allowed to West Virginia). The Wildcats’ defense has been a lot better than a Baylor defense that rates at 0.5 yppl better than average, allowing 5.3 yppl to teams that would average 5.8 yppl against an average defensive team. The numbers aren’t quite as good if I only use Big 12 games, which excludes the 67 total yards and 1.0 yppl they gave up when they overwhelmed SMU’s pathetic offense in week 1, but even if I include that SMU game I still rate Kansas State’s defense at 0.6 yppl better than the Baylor defense. The Bears have had a particularly tough time defending quality pass attacks, as they allowed an average of 349 passing yards at 8.5 yards per pass play to TCU, West Virginia, Kansas, Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech over the last 7 weeks (they performed well against Oklahoma, but only because the Sooners were without their star WR Shepard). Kansas State’s Jake Waters is a more efficient passer than Baylor’s Bryce Petty, as Waters has averaged 8.3 yards per pass play against FBS opponents that would allow 5.7 yppp to an average quarterback (Petty is 2.1 yppp better than average). I just don’t see Baylor’s suspect secondary stopping Waters given that the Bears’ pass defense is 0.6 yppp worse than the average of the teams that Waters has faced this season.

Kansas State has a clear advantage on a yards per play perspective, as the Wildcats are slightly better in that regard offensively and much better defensively. Baylor makes up for that difference by controlling the ball, as they have averaged 17.8 more plays per game than their opponents and are projected to have a 17.7 play advantage in this game. However, Kansas State is one of the best teams in the nation in special teams with a 2.9 yards edge in net punts and a 6.5 yards advantage in net kick off yard line average (their average starting yard line on a kickoff is 30.9 yard line and their opponent’s is the 24.4 yard line), which matters in a game with a lot of kickoffs expected. Baylor is just average in those categories and the field position due to special teams is a hidden advantage for Kansas State. Kansas State is a better overall team and Baylor may be a bit overrated due to being +9 in fumble margin in their 10 FBS games. That positive fumble margin is random and has benefitted Baylor an average of 3.2 points per game – points that aren’t likely to translate going forward. Baylor does have a strong home field advantage, as they are 18-3 ATS at home since 2011, but the Bears have won by more than 7 points just twice in 8 home games since 2011 when not favored by 10 points or more. Baylor is a bully that doesn’t play as well against other good teams while Kansas State is at their best as an underdog (53-28 ATS as a dog under Snyder since 1990, including 3-1 ATS this season). I do have a couple of general situations that favor Baylor but neither is strong enough to keep me off of Kansas State here – although I will make this a smaller rated play than the math merits (Kansas State is a 57% play based solely on the math). I’ll take Kansas State in a 1-Star Best Bet at +7 points or more. I also will play 0.5 Stars on Kansas State on the Money Line at (+250 or so).

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

BRIAN EDWARDS (CFB)

Missouri +14.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Wunderdog Sports Bonus Play

Game: Wisconsin Badgers vs. Ohio State Buckeyes
Time: Saturday 12/06 8:15 PM Eastern
Pick: Ohio State +4.5 (-102)

Ohio State has had an amazing season. When you consider they lost their starting QB before a single snap was made, and now have lost their #2 QB, and sitting at 11-1 with a chance to make the Final Four if things go right is pretty amazing. Cardale Jones will now call the signals, and he was a #12 rated pick overall coming out of high school, and he has great speed and size. He has run 26 times on the season for over 200 yards and 7.9 yards per carry, so I don’t think the Ohio State offense is going to slow down too much. Urban Meyer has enjoyed the spotlight in the role of a pick ‘em or a dog, where he is 15-9 straight-up and 18-6 ATS in his coaching career. Wisconsin has had success with Heisman hopeful Melvin Gordon. Gordon has run for 2,260 yards and 26 TDs on the season. I think this line has been over-adjusted with the OSU QB situation, disregarding the skill level of this entire Ohio State team. Wisconsin has been a dog in this series in 44 of the last 46 games played, and the two times they have been favored, they lost straight up, and I would not be surprised if that is three after this one. Take Ohio State and the points.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sports Lab

NCAA:
5* Missouri +14.5 *
1* SMU +11.5
1* Louisiana Tech +11.5

 

[goldencontender]

GC: College Football Play

​

Saturday The 7* 100% Highest Rated College Football Game of the Year takes center stage along with 4 more Powerful systems winners. In the NBA a 30-1 Power angle side play and 15-1 totals system are up along with Powerful College Hoops winners. Football overall is ranked #1 for a 5th straight week. NCAAF Play below


The Early College play play is on Houston. Game 115 at 12 noon eastern. Houston has Home loss revenge for last seasons loss to Cincy. They are 5-1 ats as dogs with revenge off a win of 10 or more and dogs of more than 3 to +10 that are off 2 straight conference wins are 66-28 ats vs an opponent off a road win. The Cougars are 9-0 ats in lined road games and have won both games this season vs winning opponents. They have also covered 4 of 5 on the road when the total is 56.5 to 63. Look for a good game between these two with Houston getting the cover. Don't miss the Saturday The 7* 100% Highest Rated College Football Game of the Year takes center stage along with 4 more Powerful systems winners. In the NBA a 30-1 Power angle side play and 15-1 totals system. NCAAB Power Angle and simulator plays will be added throughout the day. Football is ranked #1 for a 5th straight week on some of the high end leader boards. Jump on now and Cash big with the most powerful data in the Industry. For the Bonus Play take Houston. GC

 

[The-Chairman]

SaberHockeyCA

2-0 last night, 47-27 YTD

Florida Panthers