STATSYSTEMS SPORTS NFL REPORT
SATURDAY DECEMBER, 20th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** National Football League Information - Week #16 *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every week during the 2014-15 National Football League season we will analyze all of your daily football action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of Stat/Systems Sports. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
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Saturday's Week #16 Matchups
Systems Analyst William Stillman
#103 SAN DIEGO @ #104 SAN FRANCISCO
TV: 8:25 PM EST, CBS Sports
Line: Pick, Total: 41
The San Diego Chargers already face a very difficult task in trying to get back into playoff position with just two weeks left. Making it even more challenging is an expanding list of injured players. The Chargers won't have leading receiver Keenan Allen available and running back Ryan Mathews' status is unclear for Saturday evening's visit to the eliminated San Francisco 49ers. San Diego (8-6) was in control of the AFC's final playoff spot even after a 23-14 setback to New England on December 7th, but lost that distinction with a 22-10 defeat to another one of the conference's top teams, Denver, on Sunday.
The Chargers are one-game behind the current wild-card leaders, Pittsburgh and a Baltimore team they beat 34-33 on November 30th. San Diego also sits second out of three teams with 8-6 records and visits the top one, Kansas City, in its regular-season finale December 28th. "We've got two big games coming up, and we've got to turn our focus to that," wide receiver Eddie Royal said. "That will be a great time to get going." The Chargers, though, will have to play this game without Allen, who broke his right collarbone and hurt his right ankle last weekend. The second-year pro has a career-high 77 catches for 783 yards and four touchdowns.
"There's no doubt it hurts," said quarterback Philip Rivers, who missed practice Wednesday with chest and back injuries but expects to play. San Diego will have to lean on a receiving corps that features three other players with at least 45 receptions and 585 yards in Royal, Malcom Floyd and tight end Antonio Gates. The Chargers might also get tight end Ladarius Green (19 catches, 226 yards) back from concussion and ankle injuries. "I do feel like they will get the job done," Allen told the team's official website. "We will have a playoff seed, and I will hopefully come back and play."
Mathews sat out against Denver with a severely sprained right ankle, and wasn't at practice to begin this shortened week. Punter Mike Scifres also has a broken collarbone, and San Diego has placed second-leading tackler Donald Butler on injured reserve because of a dislocated elbow. Injuries have also played a role in San Francisco (7-7) missing the playoffs for the first time since 2010 with Patrick Willis (toe) and NaVorro Bowman (knee) among the most notable. Running back Frank Gore suffered a concussion in Sunday's 17-7 loss in Seattle that officially eliminated the 49ers, and his status is unclear.
Linebacker Ahmad Brooks is dealing with a dislocated (left) thumb, and it's unknown if right tackle Anthony Davis will return after missing four games because of a concussion. Leading tackler and rookie linebacker Chris Borland, however, is likely done for the season after hurting his ankle last weekend. The 49ers released defensive lineman Ray McDonald on Wednesday amid an investigation by San Jose police into McDonald on suspicion of sexual assault. San Francisco general manager Trent Baalke said CEO Jed York and coach Jim Harbaugh also were involved in the decision. This is the second time in recent months McDonald has been the subject of a police investigation. The 49ers have also dealt with the uncertainty of coach Jim Harbaugh's future.
Harbaugh, who led the team to a Super Bowl two seasons ago and two other NFC championships games in his tenure, has one season left on a five-year contract. Among the rumored landing spots for Harbaugh next season are his alma mater Michigan or the Oakland Raiders. "I would rather talk about how proud I am of them. There's been a lot taken away from them and the way they've been playing," said Harbaugh, who won 36 games over the previous three seasons. "I hate to keep contributing to that." Colin Kaepernick has also struggled mightily as the 49ers have totaled two touchdowns during a three-game skid -- the franchise's longest since an 0-5 start in 2010.
He has posted a 54.3 quarterback rating -- significantly lower than his 92.1 in the first 11 games -- with four interceptions to just one touchdown and has been sacked 15 times, bringing his total to an NFL-worst 49. "Regardless of the situation, we're going out to win," Kaepernick said. "There's no one on this team that's going to step on that field and say, 'Hey, our season is over. We're not going out to compete.' We're going to compete until the end." Kaepernick is set to face San Diego for the first time, and try to prevent the Chargers from claiming a series-best fourth consecutive victory. Rivers had three touchdowns in the last matchup, a 27-point triumph December 16[SUP]th[/SUP], 2010.
•KEY STATS
--SAN DIEGO is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) in road games versus poor punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was SAN DIEGO 24.3, OPPONENT 20.9.
--SAN DIEGO is 19-43 against the 1rst half line (-28.3 Units) versus poor punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was SAN DIEGO 9.9, OPPONENT 12.1.
--SAN FRANCISCO is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) versus mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 18.2, OPPONENT 19.7.
--SAN FRANCISCO is 38-17 OVER (+19.3 Units) versus poor rushing teams - averaging <=3.5 rushing yards/carry since 1992.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 26.2, OPPONENT 21.1.
--SAN FRANCISCO is 8-1 UNDER (+6.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 16.0, OPPONENT 17.7.
--SAN FRANCISCO is 6-0 UNDER (+6.0 Units) in home games versus mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 18.2, OPPONENT 14.3.
--SAN FRANCISCO is 47-24 against the 1rst half line (+20.6 Units) versus poor passing defenses - allowing a completion percentage of 61% or worse in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 13.3, OPPONENT 8.5.
--SAN FRANCISCO is 7-0 UNDER (+7.0 Units) the 1rst half total after a loss by 10 or more points over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 8.5, OPPONENT 6.0.
--SAN FRANCISCO is 11-2 UNDER (+8.8 Units) the 1rst half total after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 10.1, OPPONENT 7.7.
•COACHING TRENDS
--MIKE MCCOY is 13-3 UNDER (+9.7 Units) the 1rst half total versus the 1rst half line in road games as the coach of SAN DIEGO.
The average score was SAN DIEGO 8.9, OPPONENT 11.1.
--JIM HARBAUGH is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) after gaining 150 or less passing yards in last game as the coach of SAN FRANCISCO.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 23.5, OPPONENT 12.7.
--JIM HARBAUGH is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) versus good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game as the coach of SAN FRANCISCO.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 26.5, OPPONENT 19.9.
--JIM HARBAUGH is 14-4 against the 1rst half line (+9.6 Units) off 2 or more consecutive unders as the coach of SAN FRANCISCO.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 11.7, OPPONENT 6.8.
--JIM HARBAUGH is 9-1 UNDER (+7.9 Units) the 1rst half total off a road loss as the coach of SAN FRANCISCO.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 8.5, OPPONENT 5.9.
--JIM HARBAUGH is 14-2 UNDER (+11.8 Units) the 1rst half total after 1 or more consecutive losses as the coach of SAN FRANCISCO.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 9.2, OPPONENT 6.5.
--JIM HARBAUGH is 22-9 UNDER (+12.1 Units) the 1rst half total in the second half of the season as the coach of SAN FRANCISCO.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 10.3, OPPONENT 7.3.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
San Diego has dominated this non-conference series going 4-1 against the spread since 1997. The last meeting was in 2010, when the Chargers rolled 34-7 as 10-point home favorites. They also routed the 49ers 48-19 as 10-point favorites in Candlestick Park in 2006. San Francisco’s last straight-up or against the spread cover came in 2000, a 45-17 win as 3-point road favorites. Favorites are 5-2 ATS.
--SAN DIEGO is 4-3 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO since 1992.
--SAN FRANCISCO is 4-3 straight up against SAN DIEGO since 1992.
--4 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1992.
--SAN FRANCISCO is 4-3 versus the first half line when playing against SAN DIEGO since 1992.
--4 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.
•RECENT TRENDS
--SD is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 Saturday games.
--SD is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in Week #16.
--Under is 4-1 in SD last 5 games in December.
--SF is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Saturday games.
--SF is 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games in Week #16.
--Over is 8-3 in SF last 11 games in Week #16.
StatSystemsSports.nethas searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the underdog covered the spread 53 times, while the favorite covered the spread 47 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 61 times, while the underdog won straight up 42 times. 65 games went under the total, while 64 games went over the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the underdog covered first half line 88 times, while the favorite covered first half line 69 times. *No EDGE. 112 games went under first half total, while 100 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.
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#105 PHILADELPHIA @ #106 WASHINGTON
TV: 4:30 PM EST, NFL Network
Line: Eagles -8, Total: 50
No longer in control of their 2014 playoff destiny, the battered and turnover-prone Philadelphia Eagles are facing what amounts to a must-win situation against the historically bad Washington Redskins. With the visiting Eagles looking to avoid their longest losing streak in 15 months, Robert Griffin III hopes to make the most of another opportunity Saturday and help the Redskins halt a six-game losing streak. Philadelphia (9-5) led the NFC East following a impressive win at Dallas in Week #13, but back-to-back home losses to Seattle and the Cowboys have dropped the defending division champs one game back in the division.
Now the Eagles need to beat Washington and the New York Giants and a Dallas loss to either Indianapolis or the Redskins to return to the top. They'll have to win both games while Seattle, Green Bay or Detroit has to lose twice to secure a wild card berth. "I don't know if playing a scenario out in your head makes you feel better or whatever; I don't know how that helps you," head coach Chip Kelly said. "It's about one thing we can do and that's go out and play against Washington on Saturday." Kelly understands his squad will likely have to cut down on its league-high 34 turnovers to reach its goals.
With injured quarterback Nick Foles not quite ready to return, Mark Sanchez hopes to bounce back after completing just 56.3 percent of his passes for a combined 348 yards with two scores and three picks in his past two. "That's what has been hurting us," Sanchez said. "We need better ball security and that starts with me." Meanwhile, Washington (3-11) is tied for 31st with five interceptions and has forced 16 turnovers on the season. The Redskins are also allowing 28.3 points per game during a skid that has guaranteed a last-place finish for the sixth time in seven seasons.
Following a 24-13 setback to the N.Y. Giants last Sunday, they've lost 19 of 22 for the franchise's worst stretch since the 1960s. Washington has been particularly ineffective offensively, averaging 12.0 points over its past five games. Alfred Morris has struggled on the ground, rushing for a combined 55 yards on 22 carries in the last two. Griffin will be back under center after he was benched two weeks ago amid criticism from head coach Jay Gruden over the former Heisman Trophy winner's ability to lead the offense. He went 18 of 27 passing for 236 yards with a touchdown and also ran for a season-best 46 yards last Sunday afternoon after Colt McCoy aggravated a neck injury.
"He's got every chance this week against the Eagles to take this position and run with it," Gruden said. "And I'd like to see him have some urgency about him and play well, and hopefully there won't be much of a debate if he does well." Washington's leaky offensive line has given up the league's second-most sacks with 53. That certainly doesn't bode well heading into a matchup with the Eagles, who rank second with 47 behind 6’4” Connor Barwin's 14.5. Philadelphia, though, will be without outside linebacker Trent Cole after he had surgery on his broken left hand. Brandon Graham will make his first start since 2012 when he was a defensive end in a 4-3 alignment.
The Eagles, who have allowed 29.8 points per game over their last five, did not record a sack while allowing Kirk Cousins to throw for 427 yards in a 37-34 victory over the visiting Redskins on September 21st. Foles started for Philadelphia, finding 6’3” wide receiver Jordan Matthews for two touchdowns and Jeremy Maclin for another score. Maclin has 16 catches for 270 yards and two touchdowns in his last two games versus Washington. LeSean McCoy managed 22 rushing yards on 1.2 per carry -- his worst average since his rookie 2009 season -- after he had run for a combined 261 and three scores in two 2013 matchups.
•KEY STATS
--PHILADELPHIA is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in road games versus poor teams - outscored by 6+ points per game on the season in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 21.7, OPPONENT 23.6.
--PHILADELPHIA is 34-14 UNDER (+18.6 Units) after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored since 1992.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 22.4, OPPONENT 18.6.
--PHILADELPHIA is 9-22 against the 1rst half line (-15.2 Units) in road games versus poor kickoff coverage teams, allowing >= 24 yards per return since 1992.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 7.5, OPPONENT 14.6.
--PHILADELPHIA is 13-4 UNDER (+8.6 Units) the 1rst half total in road games versus mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 8.7, OPPONENT 9.1.
--PHILADELPHIA is 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) the 1rst half total after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 14.4, OPPONENT 16.4.
--PHILADELPHIA is 10-1 UNDER (+8.9 Units) the 1rst half total in road games after allowing 35 points or more last game since 1992.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 6.4, OPPONENT 9.4.
--WASHINGTON is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) versus poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game this season.
The average score was WASHINGTON 14.6, OPPONENT 30.4.
--WASHINGTON is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing >=350 yards/game this season.
The average score was WASHINGTON 14.3, OPPONENT 30.9.
--WASHINGTON is 17-4 ATS (+12.6 Units) versus excellent passing teams averaging 260 or more passing yards/game after 8+ games since 1992.
The average score was WASHINGTON 21.3, OPPONENT 21.6.
--WASHINGTON is 9-1 UNDER (+7.9 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was WASHINGTON 15.6, OPPONENT 24.2.
--WASHINGTON is 0-7 against the 1rst half line (-7.7 Units) in home games versus poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was WASHINGTON 8.5, OPPONENT 15.8.
--WASHINGTON is 0-7 against the 1rst half line (-7.7 Units) in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing >=350 yards/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was WASHINGTON 7.7, OPPONENT 16.0.
--WASHINGTON is 0-7 against the 1rst half line (-7.7 Units) in home games after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was WASHINGTON 7.0, OPPONENT 14.9.
•COACHING TRENDS
--CHIP KELLY is 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse as the coach of PHILADELPHIA.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 36.0, OPPONENT 27.6.
--CHIP KELLY is 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) the 1rst half total versus good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att. this season.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 17.7, OPPONENT 15.6.
--JAY GRUDEN is 6-0 UNDER (+6.0 Units) the 1rst half total after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games as the coach of WASHINGTON.
The average score was WASHINGTON 6.7, OPPONENT 8.8.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
Favorites are on a 6-1-1 ATS run here. The push came in Week #3 of this season, a 37-34 Philadelphia win as 3-point home favorites. The Eagles are 5-2-1 ATS in this twice-annual NFC East series since the second meeting in 2010, including 3-1 ATS in Washington. Road teams also have had a nice run of success of late going 7-3-1 ATS since 2009.
--PHILADELPHIA is 23-19 against the spread versus WASHINGTON since 1992.
--PHILADELPHIA is 30-15 straight up against WASHINGTON since 1992.
--27 of 44 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1992.
--WASHINGTON is 23-22 versus the first half line when playing against PHILADELPHIA since 1992.
--22 of 43 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.
•RECENT TRENDS
--PHI is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 Saturday games.
--PHI is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games in December.
--Over is 7-3 in PHI last 10 games in December.
--WAS is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Saturday games.
--WAS is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in Week #16.
--Under is 4-0 in WAS last 4 games in December.
StatSystemsSports.nethas searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the underdog covered the spread 19 times, while the favorite covered the spread 11 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 23 times, while the underdog won straight up 7 times. 21 games went over the total, while 18 games went under the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the favorite covered first half line 18 times, while the underdog covered first half line 18 times. *No EDGE. 24 games went under first half total, while 22 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.
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