STATSYSTEMS SPORTS NCAAF REPORT
SATURDAY, DECEMBER 13th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** NCAA College Football Information – Week #16 *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every week during the 2014-15 NCAA College Football season we will analyze all of your daily football action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of StatSystems Sports. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
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Early Money Moving Big-Name Bowl Game Odds
Odds for the big-name college football bowl games have only been open for short time and already early action has dictated a few notable moves. We talk with Peter Childs, an oddsmaker with Sportsbook.ag, about that first rush of money, where it landed and how the books are adjusting.
•Cotton Bowl - AT&T Stadium - Arlington, TX
Baylor Bears vs. Michigan State Spartans (Open: +1, Move: +2.5)
Oddsmakers opened with Baylor, fresh off a College Football Playoff shunning, as a 1-point favorite versus Michigan State and immediately took money on the favorite, bumping this spread as high as BU -2.5. But according to Childs, he first considered opening the Cotton Bowl as a pick’em. On one side, you can say the Bears will come out to prove they belong among the Final Four vying for the national title. And on the other, you can say that Baylor will come out flat after the disappointment of not making the playoff cut. “I hate this spot for Baylor,” says Childs. “They were all in to get into the playoffs and it’s all they’ve talked about. Hell, they campaigned for it and hired media companies to market for it.”
“They have to be disappointed being here and that lack of motivation is a factor, in my opinion,” he adds. “I don’t understand all the support for Baylor in the past few hours, but we had to move it with the amount of action we’ve seen.”
•Sugar Bowl - Superdome - New Orleans, LA
Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Alabama Crimson Tide (Open: -9, Move: -10)
The No. 1 seed in the College Football Playoff opened just under a double-digit favorite versus No. 4 Ohio State in the Sugar Bowl – the semifinals for the national title game. Money hit the Crimson Tide and pushed the number to -10. However, that adjustment prompted action on the Buckeyes, following their one-sided stunner against Wisconsin in the Big Ten title game. Right now, Sportsbook.ag is dealing Alabama -10 (-105) / Ohio State +10 (-115). “So far, good two-way action at the number 10,” says Childs.
“Solid number and I don’t see this one moving all that much. We’ve seen quite a bit of Ohio State moneyline bets, to the point where we lowered them down from +280 to +270.”
•Chick-Fil-A Bowl - Georgia Dome - Atlanta, GA
Mississippi Rebels vs. TCU Horned Frogs (Open: -3, Move: -3.5)
Texas Christian is another Big 12 team with a chip on its shoulder heading into bowl season. The Horned Frogs were bumped from the Final Four by Ohio State, despite ranking No. 3 entering Week #15 and thumping Iowa State 55-3. They did everything they could do and weren’t even given a New Year’s Day time slot, instead settling for a New Year’s Eve game with Ole Miss. A flood of action forced bookmakers to move off the key number. They first adjusted the juice on TCU, going -3 (-115) trying to entice money on the discounted Rebels. But it wasn’t enough and they made the move to -3.5.
“Moving off the number -3 takes a lot of money, basically all the early money was on Texas Christian but at 3.5, we’re starting to see a bit of Mississippi money come in,” Childs told us here at StatSystemsSports.net on Tuesday. Much like its Big 12 brethren, Baylor, Texas Christian could be motivated to show up the selection committee or be completely disinterested in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl after having its national championship hopes dashed. “I see this like I do the Baylor game, I question TCU’s motivation here,” adds Childs.
“They wanted to be in the playoffs, not this bowl game. Mississippi will also have strong crowd support with this game being in the South, in Georgia (Georgia Dome).”
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Which College Football Teams Were The Best/Worst Bets This Season
The 2014-15 NCAA College Football regular season closed with a bang this Saturday. Conference crowns were handed out, the Big 12 still didn’t have a title game, and the inaugural College Football Playoff pictured was inked, along with all the other postseason matchups. Before we prepare for a month of wall-to-wall bowl wagering, let’s look back at the best and worst bets from this past college football season.
Best Bet
•TCU Horned Frogs: 11-1 SU, 10-2 ATS
Apparently no one on the College Football Playoff committee is a football bettor - or would admit it. If there was just one red-blooded bettor among the suits, TCU would have cracked the Final Four instead of playing Ole Miss in the disappointment bowl as a 3.5-point favorite. The Horned Frogs had only two blemishes on their ATS record this past season. They failed to cover as 3.5-point favorites in a 31-30 road win at West Virginia and nearly crapped the bed against Kansas of all teams, squeaking out a 34-30 road victory as 28-point chalk in Lawrence. There was another 10-2 ATS team in college football this year – the Western Michigan Broncos. However, we gave TCU the nod since they were up against the points in all but two games this season – versus Oklahoma and at Baylor – and WMU fell apart at the end of the year with a SU and ATS loss to Northern Illinois.
Worst Bet
•Connecticut Huskies: 2-10 SU, 2-10 ATS
Some will want to hang this albatross on Florida State, which went 3-10 ATS despite an undefeated record. But for the sake of profits, Connecticut was behind FSU in the ATS rankings. The Huskies finished at the bottom of the very shallow AAC – just ahead of 1-11 SMU, which went 4-8 ATS on the season. That lone win by the Mustangs – you got it – came in the season finale against the Huskies, winning 27-20 as a 13-point underdog. The sheer fact UConn was favored by almost two touchdowns is baffling. Connecticut was a favorite only three times – versus FCS Stoney Brook, at Army, versus SMU – and lost by an average of just over two touchdowns per game. The two games the Huskies did manage to cover in came in back-to-back outings: a 31-21 loss at East Carolina as 27.5-point pups and a 37-29 win versus Central Florida as 8.5-point home dogs.
Best Over
•Ohio State Buckeyes: 12-1 SU, 11-2 O/U
Want to know just how good an Over bet the Buckeyes where this year? They didn’t even need Wisconsin to score a single point in the Big Ten Championship, topping the total all by themselves in the jaw-dropping 59-0 win this past weekend. That was just the cherry on top of the Over sundae for Ohio State. It averaged 45.2 points per game on the season and scored 50 or more points in six of its 13 games. Not even losing two starting quarterbacks to stop the Buckeyes offense, with third stringer Cardale Jones passing for 257 yards and three touchdowns against the Badgers. Braxton who? Ohio State’s defense wasn’t up to the usual standards of Big Ten football, giving up more than three touchdowns per game. The Buckeyes’ yards against weren’t terrible – ranked 15th in the country – but opponents that did crack the OSU 20-yard line scored a touchdown on 70.27 percent of those red-zone trips. Oddsmakers have set the total at 58 points for Ohio State’s date with Alabama in the Sugar Bowl.
Best Under
•San Diego State Aztecs: 7-5 SU, 1-11 O/U
The Aztecs were nearly perfect for Under players if not for a 38-29 loss at Boise State, which finished the season 9-4 O/U. The Broncos scored 21 fourth-quarter points against SDSU, which allowed just 6.9 points per fourth quarter on the season, and trumped the 56.5 points total. San Diego State’s 12 games had an average total of 53.6 points, while its games produced an average of 45.9 points – a difference of 7.7 points. In the razor-thin world of total betting, that near eight points separation might as well be the Grand Canyon. The Aztecs' rushing game marched for 218.6 yards an outing and helped SDSU chew up 31:28 in time of possession – 30th in the country. San Diego State has an interesting bowl game with Navy, which does nothing but run, in the Poinsettia Bowl on Dec. 23. The Middies’ triple option helped post a 4-6 O/U mark heading into their annual showdown with Army Saturday.
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Navy A Big Test For Rookie Army Coach
(Line: Navy -15, Total: 57.5) - The final game of the 2014 regular season is the classic Army-Navy matchup, played this year at M&T Bank Stadium. The Black Knights will be closing up shop no matter what the outcome of this, the 115th edition of the battle between the Academies. Army won just twice through the first eight games of the season, defeating Buffalo and Ball State, but the team showed some resiliency in the last several weeks by posting two victories in three chances. The squad took down UConn by a score of 35-21 the second week of November, and then closed out the month with a 42-31 triumph over Fordham at home. The Black Knights failed to win a single true road game, but the good news is that the squad did squeeze out a neutral-site triumph over the Huskies.
As for the Midshipmen, they already have plans made for the postseason, facing off against the San Diego State Aztecs in the Poinsettia Bowl on December 23rd at Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego regardless of the outcome of this meeting. Heading to the postseason for the 11th time since 2003, Navy enters this meeting one game over .500 thanks to a narrow 42-40 victory over South Alabama on the road on November 28th. In terms of the series between these two programs, Navy is ahead by a count of 58-49-7, thanks in large part to a 12-game win streak that stretches back to 2002 for the Midshipmen. Last season, Navy delivered a 34-7 win in Philadelphia.
In games played in Baltimore, the Knights have managed to split four encounters, but at this particular facility, Navy is 2-0, with the most recent win being a 38-3 thrashing back in 2007. The last win for Army took place in 2001 as the team secured a 26-17 final at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia. Both of these teams rely heavily on running the football, but Navy has managed to add some passing to the mix thanks to quarterback Keenan Reynolds. The signal caller has thrown five touchdowns this season, against three interceptions, to at least give defenses reason to cover receivers when they do appear on the field.
But make no mistake, Reynolds is a run-first quarterback who has become one of the best at his position in that mode. With three rushing touchdowns against South Alabama, Reynolds set an NCAA record for rushing scores by a quarterback with 60, with 20 of those coming this year alone. The MVP in each of the last two Army-Navy battles, Reynolds has also set the NCAA mark for the most games (12) with at least three rushing touchdowns, passing Montee Ball of Wisconsin.
Ranked first in the nation in rushing with 357.8 ypg, the Midshipmen have nine players who have gained at least 100 yards this season, three with at least 500 yards as Reynolds leads the way with his 1,082 yards on 205 attempts over the course of nine games. Noah Copeland contributes another 78.1 ypg, averaging better than eight yards per carry, and landing in the end zone five times. Out on the edges, Jamir Tillman and Brendan Dudeck both have a pair of receiving scores, the former registering 18 receptions for 338 yards in an effort to keep defenses honest.
On the defensive side of the ball, Navy is giving up 426.2 ypg (86th in the nation), with a good portion of those yards coming on the ground (199.8 ypg), which ranks the squad 96th in the country. Jordan Drake paces the program with 85 tackles, while Parrish Gaines has picked off three passes and Bernard Sarra has been credited with three blocked kicks, something the Black Knights need to keep in mind. Another aspect of the game that Navy has excelled at this season is in the area of penalties. A disciplined group for sure, the Midshipmen are first in the nation in both fewest penalties per game (2.27) and yards assessed (23.4 ypg).
Navy will be tasked with slowing down an Army rushing attack which is fifth in the nation with 305.5 ypg. Considering the Black Knights are dead last in the FBS with a mere 64.5 ypg through the air, the Midshipmen should be able to load the box and attack the line of scrimmage. Quarterback Angel Santiago, who has taken the majority of the snaps for the Academy this season, has completed 51.5 percent of his pass attempts for a meager 44.4 ypg and a single TD, against one interception. Unlike Navy, the Knights go to the air only when they absolutely have to.
Instead, Santiago has taken off for a team-high 182 runs, leading to 793 yards and a team-best 10 touchdowns, his scoring total one ahead of Larry Dixon who is averaging 5.8 yards per carry on 177 attempts, leading to a team-high 1,028 yards. Another legitimate threat is Terry Baggett who, during the 2013 campaign raced for 304 yards and four touchdowns in a huge win over Eastern Michigan. He hasn't had a break-out game anywhere near that since, but you never know when he could get into a groove for the Black Knights. Should Army threaten to go to the air at any point this weekend, Edgar Poe would be a safe bet having caught a team-best 10 passes for 199 yards and a score, although Xavier Moss had even better results on his six grabs in 11 games, finding his way into the end zone twice.
The fact that the Knights rank 119th in the country in pass efficiency defense, with a rating of 154.88, it only makes sense that Navy would try to exploit that weakness. Jeremy Timpf, who leads the Knights in tackles with 102 and is first with 14.0 stops for loss, will do all he can to slow down the opposition, but it might be an uphill battle. Josh Jenkins (60 tackles) and Chris Carnegie (51 tackles) have combined with Timpf to account for 10 interceptions, but that aspect of the game will provide opportunities that are few and far between.
•KEY STATS
--ARMY is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in road games versus awful passing defenses - allowing a completion percentage of 62% or worse over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ARMY 19.7, OPPONENT 38.9.
--ARMY is 1-12 ATS (-12.2 Units) after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards last game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ARMY 20.8, OPPONENT 39.7.
--ARMY is 7-0 UNDER (+7.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ARMY 16.3, OPPONENT 25.6.
--ARMY is 12-2 UNDER (+9.8 Units) in road games versus excellent rushing teams - averaging >=5.25 rushing yards/carry since 1992.
The average score was ARMY 12.6, OPPONENT 30.6.
--ARMY is 0-9 against the 1rst half line (-9.9 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing >=5.9 yards/play over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ARMY 11.9, OPPONENT 21.2.
--ARMY is 8-0 UNDER (+8.0 Units) the 1rst half total when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ARMY 6.6, OPPONENT 9.8.
--NAVY is 44-17 ATS (+25.3 Units) in road games versus poor passing defenses - allowing a completion percentage of 58% or worse since 1992.
The average score was NAVY 30.3, OPPONENT 24.4.
--NAVY is 32-12 ATS (+18.8 Units) versus excellent rushing teams - averaging >=230 rushing yards/game since 1992.
The average score was NAVY 22.1, OPPONENT 22.8.
--NAVY is 27-9 ATS (+17.1 Units) in road games versus mistake free teams - 42 or less penalty yards per game since 1992.
The average score was NAVY 26.6, OPPONENT 20.3.
--NAVY is 7-0 UNDER (+7.0 Units) when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was NAVY 30.0, OPPONENT 18.1.
--NAVY is 10-1 UNDER (+8.9 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing >=5.9 yards/play over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was NAVY 24.7, OPPONENT 19.8.
--NAVY is 40-17 against the 1rst half line (+21.3 Units) versus good rushing teams - averaging >=200 rushing yards/game since 1992.
The average score was NAVY 11.1, OPPONENT 10.6.
--NAVY is 26-8 against the 1rst half line (+17.2 Units) in road games versus mistake free teams - 42 or less penalty yards per game since 1992.
The average score was NAVY 14.5, OPPONENT 9.9.
--NAVY is 7-0 UNDER (+7.0 Units) the 1rst half total versus excellent rushing teams - averaging >=5.25 rushing yards/carry over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was NAVY 11.7, OPPONENT 6.7.
•COACHING TRENDS
--KEN NIUMATALOLO is 8-0 UNDER (+8.0 Units) as a neutral field favorite as the coach of NAVY.
The average score was NAVY 24.8, OPPONENT 10.5.
--KEN NIUMATALOLO is 11-1 UNDER (+9.9 Units) in road games after a bye week as the coach of NAVY.
The average score was NAVY 20.2, OPPONENT 18.3.
--KEN NIUMATALOLO is 13-2 UNDER (+10.8 Units) the 1rst half total versus good rushing teams - averaging >=200 rushing yards/game as the coach of NAVY.
The average score was NAVY 11.3, OPPONENT 8.7.
--KEN NIUMATALOLO is 14-3 UNDER (+10.7 Units) the 1rst half total versus good rushing teams - averaging >=4.75 rushing yards/carry as the coach of NAVY.
The average score was NAVY 9.5, OPPONENT 12.2.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--NAVY is 15-7 against the spread versus ARMY since 1992.
--NAVY is 15-7 straight up against ARMY since 1992.
--14 of 22 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1992.
--NAVY is 14-7 versus the first half line when playing against ARMY since 1992.
--12 of 20 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.
--Under is 8-0 in the last 8 meetings.
--Under is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings in Army.
--Favorite is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--ARMY is 6-23 ATS L29 games following a bye week.
--ARMY is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf.
--Under is 9-0 in ARMY last 9 games in December.
--NAVY is 3-8 ATS versus a team with a losing record.
--Under is 8-1 in NAVY last 9 games in December.
--Under is 11-4 in NAVY L15 games following a bye week.
StatSystemsSports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the favorite covered the spread 8 times, while the underdog covered the spread 6 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 12 times, while the underdog won straight up 2 times. 24 games went over the total, while 2 games went under the total. *EDGE against the total =OVER.
--In past games, the favorite covered first half line 10 times, while the underdog covered first half line 4 times. *No EDGE. 19 games went over first half total, while 5 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.
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