Service Plays Saturday 12/13/14

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NCAA Football Game Picks

Navy vs. Army

The Black Knights (4-7 SU) take on a Midshipmen team that is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games versus teams with a losing SU record. Army is the pick (+15) according to Dunkel, which has Navy favored by only 12 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Army (+15). Here are all of this week's NCAA Football picks.
SATURDAY, DECEMBER 13
Time Posted: 10:00 a.m. EST (12/10)
Game 303-304: Navy vs. Army (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Navy 78.230; Army 65.643
Dunkel Line: Navy by 12 1/2; 62
Vegas Line: Navy by 15; 57
Dunkel Pick: Army (+15); Over

OTHER GAMES:
Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST
Game 353-354: Coastal Carolina at North Dakota State (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Coastal Carolina 76.586; North Dakota State 89.652
Dunkel Line: North Dakota State by 13
Game 355-356: Sam Houston State at Villanova (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Sam Houston State 68.808; Villanova 78.875
Dunkel Line: Villanova by 10
Game 357-358: Illinois State at Eastern Washington (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Illinois State 88.285; Eastern Washington 82.889
Dunkel Line: Illinois State by 6 1/2
 

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STATSYSTEMS SPORTS NCAAF REPORT
SATURDAY, DECEMBER 13th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** NCAA College Football Information – Week #16 *****

(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every week during the 2014-15 NCAA College Football season we will analyze all of your daily football action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of StatSystems Sports. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
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Early Money Moving Big-Name Bowl Game Odds
Odds for the big-name college football bowl games have only been open for short time and already early action has dictated a few notable moves. We talk with Peter Childs, an oddsmaker with Sportsbook.ag, about that first rush of money, where it landed and how the books are adjusting.

•Cotton Bowl - AT&T Stadium - Arlington, TX
Baylor Bears vs. Michigan State Spartans (Open: +1, Move: +2.5)

Oddsmakers opened with Baylor, fresh off a College Football Playoff shunning, as a 1-point favorite versus Michigan State and immediately took money on the favorite, bumping this spread as high as BU -2.5. But according to Childs, he first considered opening the Cotton Bowl as a pick’em. On one side, you can say the Bears will come out to prove they belong among the Final Four vying for the national title. And on the other, you can say that Baylor will come out flat after the disappointment of not making the playoff cut. “I hate this spot for Baylor,” says Childs. “They were all in to get into the playoffs and it’s all they’ve talked about. Hell, they campaigned for it and hired media companies to market for it.”

“They have to be disappointed being here and that lack of motivation is a factor, in my opinion,” he adds. “I don’t understand all the support for Baylor in the past few hours, but we had to move it with the amount of action we’ve seen.”

•Sugar Bowl - Superdome - New Orleans, LA
Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Alabama Crimson Tide (Open: -9, Move: -10)

The No. 1 seed in the College Football Playoff opened just under a double-digit favorite versus No. 4 Ohio State in the Sugar Bowl – the semifinals for the national title game. Money hit the Crimson Tide and pushed the number to -10. However, that adjustment prompted action on the Buckeyes, following their one-sided stunner against Wisconsin in the Big Ten title game. Right now, Sportsbook.ag is dealing Alabama -10 (-105) / Ohio State +10 (-115). “So far, good two-way action at the number 10,” says Childs.

“Solid number and I don’t see this one moving all that much. We’ve seen quite a bit of Ohio State moneyline bets, to the point where we lowered them down from +280 to +270.”

•Chick-Fil-A Bowl - Georgia Dome - Atlanta, GA
Mississippi Rebels vs. TCU Horned Frogs (Open: -3, Move: -3.5)

Texas Christian is another Big 12 team with a chip on its shoulder heading into bowl season. The Horned Frogs were bumped from the Final Four by Ohio State, despite ranking No. 3 entering Week #15 and thumping Iowa State 55-3. They did everything they could do and weren’t even given a New Year’s Day time slot, instead settling for a New Year’s Eve game with Ole Miss. A flood of action forced bookmakers to move off the key number. They first adjusted the juice on TCU, going -3 (-115) trying to entice money on the discounted Rebels. But it wasn’t enough and they made the move to -3.5.

“Moving off the number -3 takes a lot of money, basically all the early money was on Texas Christian but at 3.5, we’re starting to see a bit of Mississippi money come in,” Childs told us here at StatSystemsSports.net on Tuesday. Much like its Big 12 brethren, Baylor, Texas Christian could be motivated to show up the selection committee or be completely disinterested in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl after having its national championship hopes dashed. “I see this like I do the Baylor game, I question TCU’s motivation here,” adds Childs.

“They wanted to be in the playoffs, not this bowl game. Mississippi will also have strong crowd support with this game being in the South, in Georgia (Georgia Dome).”
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Which College Football Teams Were The Best/Worst Bets This Season
The 2014-15 NCAA College Football regular season closed with a bang this Saturday. Conference crowns were handed out, the Big 12 still didn’t have a title game, and the inaugural College Football Playoff pictured was inked, along with all the other postseason matchups. Before we prepare for a month of wall-to-wall bowl wagering, let’s look back at the best and worst bets from this past college football season.

Best Bet

•TCU Horned Frogs: 11-1 SU, 10-2 ATS
Apparently no one on the College Football Playoff committee is a football bettor - or would admit it. If there was just one red-blooded bettor among the suits, TCU would have cracked the Final Four instead of playing Ole Miss in the disappointment bowl as a 3.5-point favorite. The Horned Frogs had only two blemishes on their ATS record this past season. They failed to cover as 3.5-point favorites in a 31-30 road win at West Virginia and nearly crapped the bed against Kansas of all teams, squeaking out a 34-30 road victory as 28-point chalk in Lawrence. There was another 10-2 ATS team in college football this year – the Western Michigan Broncos. However, we gave TCU the nod since they were up against the points in all but two games this season – versus Oklahoma and at Baylor – and WMU fell apart at the end of the year with a SU and ATS loss to Northern Illinois.

Worst Bet

•Connecticut Huskies: 2-10 SU, 2-10 ATS
Some will want to hang this albatross on Florida State, which went 3-10 ATS despite an undefeated record. But for the sake of profits, Connecticut was behind FSU in the ATS rankings. The Huskies finished at the bottom of the very shallow AAC – just ahead of 1-11 SMU, which went 4-8 ATS on the season. That lone win by the Mustangs – you got it – came in the season finale against the Huskies, winning 27-20 as a 13-point underdog. The sheer fact UConn was favored by almost two touchdowns is baffling. Connecticut was a favorite only three times – versus FCS Stoney Brook, at Army, versus SMU – and lost by an average of just over two touchdowns per game. The two games the Huskies did manage to cover in came in back-to-back outings: a 31-21 loss at East Carolina as 27.5-point pups and a 37-29 win versus Central Florida as 8.5-point home dogs.

Best Over

•Ohio State Buckeyes: 12-1 SU, 11-2 O/U
Want to know just how good an Over bet the Buckeyes where this year? They didn’t even need Wisconsin to score a single point in the Big Ten Championship, topping the total all by themselves in the jaw-dropping 59-0 win this past weekend. That was just the cherry on top of the Over sundae for Ohio State. It averaged 45.2 points per game on the season and scored 50 or more points in six of its 13 games. Not even losing two starting quarterbacks to stop the Buckeyes offense, with third stringer Cardale Jones passing for 257 yards and three touchdowns against the Badgers. Braxton who? Ohio State’s defense wasn’t up to the usual standards of Big Ten football, giving up more than three touchdowns per game. The Buckeyes’ yards against weren’t terrible – ranked 15th in the country – but opponents that did crack the OSU 20-yard line scored a touchdown on 70.27 percent of those red-zone trips. Oddsmakers have set the total at 58 points for Ohio State’s date with Alabama in the Sugar Bowl.

Best Under

•San Diego State Aztecs: 7-5 SU, 1-11 O/U
The Aztecs were nearly perfect for Under players if not for a 38-29 loss at Boise State, which finished the season 9-4 O/U. The Broncos scored 21 fourth-quarter points against SDSU, which allowed just 6.9 points per fourth quarter on the season, and trumped the 56.5 points total. San Diego State’s 12 games had an average total of 53.6 points, while its games produced an average of 45.9 points – a difference of 7.7 points. In the razor-thin world of total betting, that near eight points separation might as well be the Grand Canyon. The Aztecs' rushing game marched for 218.6 yards an outing and helped SDSU chew up 31:28 in time of possession – 30th in the country. San Diego State has an interesting bowl game with Navy, which does nothing but run, in the Poinsettia Bowl on Dec. 23. The Middies’ triple option helped post a 4-6 O/U mark heading into their annual showdown with Army Saturday.
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Navy A Big Test For Rookie Army Coach
(Line: Navy -15, Total: 57.5) - The final game of the 2014 regular season is the classic Army-Navy matchup, played this year at M&T Bank Stadium. The Black Knights will be closing up shop no matter what the outcome of this, the 115th edition of the battle between the Academies. Army won just twice through the first eight games of the season, defeating Buffalo and Ball State, but the team showed some resiliency in the last several weeks by posting two victories in three chances. The squad took down UConn by a score of 35-21 the second week of November, and then closed out the month with a 42-31 triumph over Fordham at home. The Black Knights failed to win a single true road game, but the good news is that the squad did squeeze out a neutral-site triumph over the Huskies.

As for the Midshipmen, they already have plans made for the postseason, facing off against the San Diego State Aztecs in the Poinsettia Bowl on December 23rd at Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego regardless of the outcome of this meeting. Heading to the postseason for the 11th time since 2003, Navy enters this meeting one game over .500 thanks to a narrow 42-40 victory over South Alabama on the road on November 28th. In terms of the series between these two programs, Navy is ahead by a count of 58-49-7, thanks in large part to a 12-game win streak that stretches back to 2002 for the Midshipmen. Last season, Navy delivered a 34-7 win in Philadelphia.

In games played in Baltimore, the Knights have managed to split four encounters, but at this particular facility, Navy is 2-0, with the most recent win being a 38-3 thrashing back in 2007. The last win for Army took place in 2001 as the team secured a 26-17 final at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia. Both of these teams rely heavily on running the football, but Navy has managed to add some passing to the mix thanks to quarterback Keenan Reynolds. The signal caller has thrown five touchdowns this season, against three interceptions, to at least give defenses reason to cover receivers when they do appear on the field.

But make no mistake, Reynolds is a run-first quarterback who has become one of the best at his position in that mode. With three rushing touchdowns against South Alabama, Reynolds set an NCAA record for rushing scores by a quarterback with 60, with 20 of those coming this year alone. The MVP in each of the last two Army-Navy battles, Reynolds has also set the NCAA mark for the most games (12) with at least three rushing touchdowns, passing Montee Ball of Wisconsin.

Ranked first in the nation in rushing with 357.8 ypg, the Midshipmen have nine players who have gained at least 100 yards this season, three with at least 500 yards as Reynolds leads the way with his 1,082 yards on 205 attempts over the course of nine games. Noah Copeland contributes another 78.1 ypg, averaging better than eight yards per carry, and landing in the end zone five times. Out on the edges, Jamir Tillman and Brendan Dudeck both have a pair of receiving scores, the former registering 18 receptions for 338 yards in an effort to keep defenses honest.

On the defensive side of the ball, Navy is giving up 426.2 ypg (86th in the nation), with a good portion of those yards coming on the ground (199.8 ypg), which ranks the squad 96th in the country. Jordan Drake paces the program with 85 tackles, while Parrish Gaines has picked off three passes and Bernard Sarra has been credited with three blocked kicks, something the Black Knights need to keep in mind. Another aspect of the game that Navy has excelled at this season is in the area of penalties. A disciplined group for sure, the Midshipmen are first in the nation in both fewest penalties per game (2.27) and yards assessed (23.4 ypg).

Navy will be tasked with slowing down an Army rushing attack which is fifth in the nation with 305.5 ypg. Considering the Black Knights are dead last in the FBS with a mere 64.5 ypg through the air, the Midshipmen should be able to load the box and attack the line of scrimmage. Quarterback Angel Santiago, who has taken the majority of the snaps for the Academy this season, has completed 51.5 percent of his pass attempts for a meager 44.4 ypg and a single TD, against one interception. Unlike Navy, the Knights go to the air only when they absolutely have to.

Instead, Santiago has taken off for a team-high 182 runs, leading to 793 yards and a team-best 10 touchdowns, his scoring total one ahead of Larry Dixon who is averaging 5.8 yards per carry on 177 attempts, leading to a team-high 1,028 yards. Another legitimate threat is Terry Baggett who, during the 2013 campaign raced for 304 yards and four touchdowns in a huge win over Eastern Michigan. He hasn't had a break-out game anywhere near that since, but you never know when he could get into a groove for the Black Knights. Should Army threaten to go to the air at any point this weekend, Edgar Poe would be a safe bet having caught a team-best 10 passes for 199 yards and a score, although Xavier Moss had even better results on his six grabs in 11 games, finding his way into the end zone twice.

The fact that the Knights rank 119th in the country in pass efficiency defense, with a rating of 154.88, it only makes sense that Navy would try to exploit that weakness. Jeremy Timpf, who leads the Knights in tackles with 102 and is first with 14.0 stops for loss, will do all he can to slow down the opposition, but it might be an uphill battle. Josh Jenkins (60 tackles) and Chris Carnegie (51 tackles) have combined with Timpf to account for 10 interceptions, but that aspect of the game will provide opportunities that are few and far between.

•KEY STATS
--ARMY is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in road games versus awful passing defenses - allowing a completion percentage of 62% or worse over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ARMY 19.7, OPPONENT 38.9.

--ARMY is 1-12 ATS (-12.2 Units) after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards last game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ARMY 20.8, OPPONENT 39.7.

--ARMY is 7-0 UNDER (+7.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ARMY 16.3, OPPONENT 25.6.

--ARMY is 12-2 UNDER (+9.8 Units) in road games versus excellent rushing teams - averaging >=5.25 rushing yards/carry since 1992.
The average score was ARMY 12.6, OPPONENT 30.6.

--ARMY is 0-9 against the 1rst half line (-9.9 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing >=5.9 yards/play over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ARMY 11.9, OPPONENT 21.2.

--ARMY is 8-0 UNDER (+8.0 Units) the 1rst half total when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ARMY 6.6, OPPONENT 9.8.

--NAVY is 44-17 ATS (+25.3 Units) in road games versus poor passing defenses - allowing a completion percentage of 58% or worse since 1992.
The average score was NAVY 30.3, OPPONENT 24.4.

--NAVY is 32-12 ATS (+18.8 Units) versus excellent rushing teams - averaging >=230 rushing yards/game since 1992.
The average score was NAVY 22.1, OPPONENT 22.8.

--NAVY is 27-9 ATS (+17.1 Units) in road games versus mistake free teams - 42 or less penalty yards per game since 1992.
The average score was NAVY 26.6, OPPONENT 20.3.

--NAVY is 7-0 UNDER (+7.0 Units) when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was NAVY 30.0, OPPONENT 18.1.

--NAVY is 10-1 UNDER (+8.9 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing >=5.9 yards/play over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was NAVY 24.7, OPPONENT 19.8.

--NAVY is 40-17 against the 1rst half line (+21.3 Units) versus good rushing teams - averaging >=200 rushing yards/game since 1992.
The average score was NAVY 11.1, OPPONENT 10.6.

--NAVY is 26-8 against the 1rst half line (+17.2 Units) in road games versus mistake free teams - 42 or less penalty yards per game since 1992.
The average score was NAVY 14.5, OPPONENT 9.9.

--NAVY is 7-0 UNDER (+7.0 Units) the 1rst half total versus excellent rushing teams - averaging >=5.25 rushing yards/carry over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was NAVY 11.7, OPPONENT 6.7.

•COACHING TRENDS
--KEN NIUMATALOLO is 8-0 UNDER (+8.0 Units) as a neutral field favorite as the coach of NAVY.
The average score was NAVY 24.8, OPPONENT 10.5.

--KEN NIUMATALOLO is 11-1 UNDER (+9.9 Units) in road games after a bye week as the coach of NAVY.
The average score was NAVY 20.2, OPPONENT 18.3.

--KEN NIUMATALOLO is 13-2 UNDER (+10.8 Units) the 1rst half total versus good rushing teams - averaging >=200 rushing yards/game as the coach of NAVY.
The average score was NAVY 11.3, OPPONENT 8.7.

--KEN NIUMATALOLO is 14-3 UNDER (+10.7 Units) the 1rst half total versus good rushing teams - averaging >=4.75 rushing yards/carry as the coach of NAVY.
The average score was NAVY 9.5, OPPONENT 12.2.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--NAVY is 15-7 against the spread versus ARMY since 1992.
--NAVY is 15-7 straight up against ARMY since 1992.
--14 of 22 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1992.

--NAVY is 14-7 versus the first half line when playing against ARMY since 1992.
--12 of 20 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.

--Under is 8-0 in the last 8 meetings.
--Under is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings in Army.
--Favorite is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 meetings.

•RECENT TRENDS
--ARMY is 6-23 ATS L29 games following a bye week.
--ARMY is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf.
--Under is 9-0 in ARMY last 9 games in December.

--NAVY is 3-8 ATS versus a team with a losing record.
--Under is 8-1 in NAVY last 9 games in December.
--Under is 11-4 in NAVY L15 games following a bye week.

StatSystemsSports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:

--In past games, the favorite covered the spread 8 times, while the underdog covered the spread 6 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 12 times, while the underdog won straight up 2 times. 24 games went over the total, while 2 games went under the total. *EDGE against the total =OVER.

--In past games, the favorite covered first half line 10 times, while the underdog covered first half line 4 times. *No EDGE. 19 games went over first half total, while 5 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.
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PREDICTION MACHINE (CFB)

AGAINST THE SPREAD PICKS (Based on Games Played 50,000 times)

Rot – Time (ET) – Pick – Opp Line – Margin – Pick% – $
304 3:00 PM ARMY vs NAVY ♦ 15 ♦ -12.9 ♦ 52.6% ♦ $2



STRAIGHT-UP PICKS (Based on Games Played 50,000 times)
Rot – Time (ET) – Favorite – Opp – Points For – Points Against – Win%
303 3:00 PM NAVY vs ARMY ♦ 37.8 ♦ 24.9 ♦ 68.7%



OVER/UNDER PICKS (Based on Games Played 50,000 times)
Home – Rot – Time (ET) – Matchup – Line Total – Points – Pick – Pick% – $
304 3:00 PM NAVY vs. ARMY ♦ 57.5 ♦ 62.7 ♦ Over 56.3% ♦ $41


PREDICTION MACHINE (CFB)

AGAINST THE SPREAD PICKS (Based on Games Played 50,000 times)

Rot – Time (ET) – Pick – Opp Line – Margin – Pick% – $
304 3:00 PM ARMY vs NAVY ♦ 15 ♦ -12.9 ♦ 52.6% ♦ $2



STRAIGHT-UP PICKS (Based on Games Played 50,000 times)
Rot – Time (ET) – Favorite – Opp – Points For – Points Against – Win%
303 3:00 PM NAVY vs ARMY ♦ 37.8 ♦ 24.9 ♦ 68.7%



OVER/UNDER PICKS (Based on Games Played 50,000 times)
Home – Rot – Time (ET) – Matchup – Line Total – Points – Pick – Pick% – $
304 3:00 PM NAVY vs. ARMY ♦ 57.5 ♦ 62.7 ♦ Over 56.3% ♦ $41


College Football Picks
Game of the Week Analysis
Army vs. Navy: Predictalator Picks

ATS Pick of the Week: Army +15 vs. Navy (Covers 53%), OVER 57.5 (56%)
The lone game of the week for the college football (FBS) schedule is not just the default “game of the week,” it’s a compelling matchup between two rival programs. Army and Navy head to Baltimore to face off in their annual iteration of the fourth oldest and 11th most often played rivalry in college football. Navy leads the series 58-49-7 all-time and has won 12 straight. The Midshipmen are prohibitive favorites (by simulation and spread) to win again, but that does not mean that we expect Navy to cover the more than two touchdown spread.

Army enters this game 4-7 straight-up and 3-6 against-the-spread versus the 127th ranked college football schedule. The Knights rank just 118th in our College Football Power Rankings. Army’s defense ranks in the bottom ten against the run and the pass in all of the FBS. None of that is good. However, for a non-Power Five conference team, Army is above average on the ground and has experience defending Navy’s option-heavy ground attack. And, though there are some ugly blowouts, Army was able to keep the game within two touchdowns in two road losses earlier in the season, meaning in six of eleven games on the year, the Knights would have covered this 15 point spread. Senior running back Larry Dixon, who has never defeated Navy yet has dealt with injuries throughout his career, is the key to his team’s offensive effort. Dixon averages 5.8 yards-per-carry on the year. When he has had at least 20 rushes this season, Army is 3-0 this year. He is coming off of a 22 carry, 158 yard performance on the ground in the win over Fordham.

Navy is 6-5 straight-up and 5-5 ATS against the 77th ranked schedule in college football this year. Even with six victories and an easy schedule, Navy has only won by 15 or more points once over an FBS team all season (at home against Georgia Southern, 52-19, in Week 12). The Navy defense has been an issue as the Midshipmen rank just 102nd against the pass and 93rd nationally against the run. Navy has allowed an average of 31.5 points-per-game, while opponents have averaged five yards-per-carry against the team. On the year, Navy played six games against teams ranked 85th or worse in our Power Rankings. The Midshipmen went 4-2 straight-up in those games, but out-scored opponents by an average of just 32.8-30.3 in those games. This team is not good enough defensively nor really built to blow out the opposition.

According to 50,000 games played by the Predictalator at PredictionMachine, Navy wins over Army 68.7% of the time and by an average score of 38-25. As 15 underdogs projected to lose by less than two touchdowns, the Knights cover the spread 53% of the time, which is barely enough to justify a playable pick (52.4% is break even odds when wagering 11 to win 10, or -110). The total goes OVER 57.5 56.3% of the time, which warrants a wager of $41 from a normal $50 player.
 
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NHL

Hot teams
-- Chicago won its last eight games, allowing 13 goals.
-- Maple Leafs won seven of their last nine games.
-- Washington won three of its last four games.
-- Sabres won eight of their last eleven games.
-- Blue Jackets won last five games (three of last four in OT/SO). Pittsburgh won six of its last nine.
-- Anaheim won last six games, scoring 23 goals.
-- Minnesota is 5-0 in game following its last five losses.
-- St Louis won seven of its last ten games.
-- Nashville won 12 of its last 16 games. San Jose won six of its last seven.

Cold teams
-- Boston lost six of its laat eight games. Senators lost six of last seven.
-- Hurricanes lost four in row, 11 of last 14 games. Philly lost 13 of its last 16.
-- Islanders lost last three games, allowing 17 goals.
-- Detroit lost last two games, scoring three goals; they've won four of last five on road.
-- Tampa Bay lost four of last five road games.
-- Florida is 2-9 this season in game following a win.
-- Winnipeg is 3-4 in its last seven home games.
-- Coyotes lost seven of their last eight games.
-- Dallas Stars lost five of their last six games. Devils lost eight of their last ten.
-- Colorado lost four of its last five games.
-- Rangers lost five of their last six road games. Vancouver lost its last three games, all on road.

Series records
-- Bruins won three of last four games with Ottawa,
-- Flyers lost their last four games with Carolina.
-- Islanders lost four of last five games with Chicago.
-- Red Wings won three of last four visits to Toronto.
-- Lightning lost three of last four games with Washington.
-- Sabres lost eight of last ten games with Florida.
-- Penguins won last seven games with Columbus.
-- Ducks won six of last eight games with Winnipeg.
-- Coyotes lost five of last six games with Minnesota.
-- Devils won three of last four games with Dallas.
-- Blues won five of last six games with Colorado.
-- Rangers won their last four games with Vancouver.
-- Sharks lost five of last six games with Nashville.

Totals
-- Over is 4-0-1 in last five Ottawa-Boston games.
-- Last six Carolina games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 6-1-2 in last nine Chicago games, 0-3 in last three Islander games.
-- Under is 3-0-1 in last four Detroit games.
-- Four of last five Tampa Bay games stayed under.
-- Over is 3-1-1 in last five Florida games.
-- Five of last six Penguin games stayed under.
-- Over is 5-1-1 in last seven Anaheim games.
-- Four of last five Arizona games went over total.
-- Five of last six Dallas games went over the total.
-- Over is 6-2-1 in last nine St Louis games.
-- Six of last eight Ranger-Canuck games stayed under.
-- Five of last seven Nashville games stayed under.

Back-to-back
-- Red Wings are 2-1 if they played the night before.
-- Panthers are 1-1 if they played night before.
-- Pittsburgh is 2-2 if it played night before.
-- Anaheim is 2-1 if it played night before.
 
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StatFox Super Situations

NHL | ST LOUIS at COLORADO
Play On - Road teams against the money line (ST LOUIS) after 6 or more consecutive overs, quick starting team-outscoring opp by 0.2+ goals/game in first period
48-15 since 1997. ( 76.2% | 36.3 units )
2-1 this year. ( 66.7% | 1.1 units )

NHL | ST LOUIS at COLORADO
Play On - Any team against the money line (ST LOUIS) after 6 or more consecutive overs, excellent defensive team - allowing <=2.4 goals/game on the season
28-6 since 1997. ( 82.4% | 22.4 units )

NHL | ST LOUIS at COLORADO
Play On - Road teams against the money line (ST LOUIS) after 6 or more consecutive overs, good team - outscoring their opponents by 0.3+ goals/game
54-22 since 1997. ( 71.1% | 32.8 units )
2-1 this year. ( 66.7% | 1.1 units )
 
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StatFox Super Situations

NBA | DENVER at HOUSTON
Play On - Road teams (DENVER) after going under the total by 36 or more points total in their last five games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season
92-47 over the last 5 seasons. ( 66.2% | 40.3 units )
2-3 this year. ( 40.0% | -1.3 units )

NBA | BROOKLYN at CHARLOTTE
Play Against - Home teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (CHARLOTTE) cold team - failing to cover 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread, well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days
119-71 since 1997. ( 62.6% | 47.4 units )
2-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 2.0 units )

NBA | DENVER at HOUSTON
Play On - Underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (DENVER) after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last seven games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season
89-45 over the last 5 seasons. ( 66.4% | 39.5 units )
3-3 this year. ( 50.0% | -0.3 units )
 
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StatFox Super Situations

CBB | TEXAS ST at TEXAS
Play On - A home team (TEXAS) average 3PT shooting team (32-36.5%) against an average 3PT defense (32-36.5%), after 5 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 40% or less
67-31 since 1997. ( 68.4% | 32.9 units )

CBB | LA-MONROE at NEW MEXICO
Play Against - Any team (NEW MEXICO) off an upset win by 10 points or more as an underdog against opponent off 2 or more consecutive home wins
260-171 since 1997. ( 60.3% | 82.8 units )
1-1 this year. ( 50.0% | 0.0 units )

CBB | S CAROLINA ST at MARYLAND
Play Against - Underdogs of 11 or more points vs. the first half line (S CAROLINA ST) after a combined score of 110 points or less
46-18 over the last 5 seasons. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )
4-2 this year. ( 66.7% | 1.8 units )
 
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Scott Spreitzer | CBB Sides

Nebraska -4.0 vs Cincinnati triple-dime bet
Analysis: I'm laying the points with Nebraska on Saturday night. The Huskers are in off a rough home loss to Incarnate Word and they're on a 19-6-1 ATS run following a SU loss. While knee-jerk reaction has many thinking a loss to IWU equates to a loss against an NAIA-level opponent, the truth is, the Cardinals are not that bad, standing 6-1 SU and beating Princeton by 11 points. Having said that, it sure doesn't look too good to lose to the Cards on your home floor when you had preseason thoughts of challenging for the Big-10 title and finally winning a game or two in the Big Dance. Nebraska is now in an early-season situation where the game against the Bearcats has taken on even bigger meaning. The Cornhuskers have a lot of talent back from last season, including a pair of big-time scorers in Terran Petteway (20.6 ppg) and Shavon Shields (18.2 ppg). Cincinnati's record (6-1) looks shiny †, but they have faced a slate of "softies," losing their only game against halfway decent opposition when Ole Miss beat the Bearcats 66-54 on November 29. Saturday also marks the first time this season UC will play a true road game and Mick Cronin's troops own a negative assist-turnover ratio. In fact, they had 14 more turnovers than assists in their previous six games before a win last time out over out-manned Stony Brook. At the same time, Cincy does not bring much pressure on the defensive end and UNL has thrived against these kinds of teams, currently on a 40-17 ATS run at home against teams that force no more than 14 ppg. Nebraska is also 7-0 ATS as home chalk of less than six points, winning by nearly 13 ppg. while the Bearcats, who haven't played since December 2, are 0-6 ATS under Cronin when playing with at least seven days off between games. I expect Husker coach Tim Miles to have his team focused and champing at the bit and I'm laying the points, my Tapout GOM.

VMI -12.0 vs Marist double-dime bet
Analysis: I'm laying the points with VMI on Saturday. The Marist Red Foxes are 1-8 SU on the season and they're now officially a mess. Marist has lost four players, including Khalid Hart (24.5 ppg.) to a foot injury and now Chavaughn Lewis (17.9 ppg.) is expected to miss this game with an ankle injury. Not only does that erase over 42 ppg. from the lineup and the team's only two players averaging in double digits in scoring, but the available remaining players have just 50 assists with a hefty 110 turnovers in nine games. Marist is 0-4 ATS as a double digit underdog this season, losing by an average final score of 64-46, and they have covered just 2 of their last 12 games off a SU loss going back to last season. The lucky team that gets to face the Red Foxes is VMI. The Keydets will attempt to run the depleted opponent off the floor. VMI averages nearly 90 ppg. and will not let-up for a moment in this one. Nine Keydets average more than 12 minutes played per game and Q.J. Peterson's 21 ppg. leads six players averaging over 8 ppg. Peterson and Julian Eleby are also matchup nightmares for Marist's makeshift backcourt on the defensive end, where they have combined for 30 steals on the season. I believe this one is going to get ugly early and with VMI's ability to fill the bucket; they should extend that lead down the stretch. I'm laying the points with VMI my Under the Radar Wipeout.

Gonzaga -4.5 vs UCLA double-dime bet
Analysis: I'm laying the points with Gonzaga on Saturday night. There aren't a lot of big name wins for UCLA so far this season and they lost both of their step-up games, including double digit defeats to North Carolina and Oklahoma. The Bruins are not a deep team with too many minutes going to too few players. They couldn't handle the Heels or the Sooners quickness or talent, finishing with just 15 assists and a whopping 36 turnovers in the two games, combined. I suspect they'll have problems with the best team they'll have faced yet, the Gonzaga Bulldogs. Gonzaga has eight players averaging over 16 minutes of action and their outstanding backcourt should have their way with the Bruins. Led by Kevin Pangos, the Zags have four healthy guards averaging well into double digits in minutes player per game and the four have a combined 107 assists with just 35 turnovers. This is also a spot where the strength of the Bruins, their frontline, will be matched and maybe bettered by Gonzaga's. Przemek Karnowski threw down 22 points last time out and is one of three frontline players to average in double digits in points scored per game, while the three grab between 5.4 and 7.1 rpg. In a nutshell, this year's Bulldogs, arguably Mark Few's best group yet, out-class UCLA, in my opinion. The Bruins enter on a 0-5 ATS slide against teams with a winning record, while Gonzaga is 9-1 ATS on the road against teams that out-score their opponents by an average of 12 or more ppg. over the last three seasons. I'm laying the points with Gonzaga, my Knockout release.
 
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NBA

Hot Teams
-- Warriors won last 14 games, covered seven of last nine. Dallas won seven of last nine (1-3 last four HF).
-- Atlanta won its last nine games (2-0 AF). Magic covered six of their last seven games (2-5 HU).
-- Clippers won nine of their last ten games (6-3 AF).
-- Memphis won eight of its last ten games (3-4 AF).
-- Rockets won five of their last six games (4-4 HF).

Cold Teams
-- Charlotte lost 11 of last 13 games (3-4 HF). Nets lost three of their last four games (4-5 AU).
-- Portland lost last two games, after winning 14 of previous 15 (2-4-1 as AF). Indiana lost last seven games, covering twice.
-- Bucks lost five of their last six games (2-2 HU).
-- 76ers are 2-20, lost last two games by 16-18 points (7-4 HU).
-- Nuggets lost four of their last five games (3-6 AU).
-- Pistons snapped a 13-game losing skid last night (4-6 AU). Kings lost seven of their last nine games (3-3 HF).

Series Records
-- Mavericks lost five of last seven games with Golden State.
-- Nets won eight of last ten games with Charlotte.
-- Trailblazers won three of last four games with Indiana.
-- Hawks won 13 of last 15 games with Orlando.
-- Clippers lost four of last six games with Milwaukee.
-- 76ers lost six of last seven games with Memphis.
-- Nuggets won eight of last ten games with Houston.
-- Kings lost eight of last nine games with Detroit.


Totals
-- Five of last six Warrior games stayed under total; last seven Maverick games stayed under.
-- Eight of last ten Brooklyn games stayed under; six of last eight Hornet games went over.
-- Five of last seven Portland games stayed under.
-- Nine of last eleven Orlando games stayed under.
-- Over is 8-3-2 in last thirteen Clipper games.
-- Four of last five Memphis games went over total.
-- Six of last seven Denver games stayed under total.
-- Five of last seven Detroit-Sacramento games went over.

Back-to-Backs
-- Nets are 2-1 vs spread if they played night before; Charlotte is 2-3.
-- Portland is 2-2 if it played night before; Pacers are 3-2.
-- Magic is 3-3 vs spread if it played night before; Atlanta is 3-2-1.
-- Clippers are 5-0 (3-2 vs spread) if they played night before.
-- Memphis is 1-1 if it played night before; 76ers are 3-1.
-- Detroit is 3-3 vs spread if it played night before.
 
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Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with Iowa (-6) on Friday and likes Navy on Saturday.

The deficit is 1098 sirignanos.
 
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[h=1]NCAA Basketball Picks[/h] [h=2]North Carolina at Kentucky[/h] The Tar Heels head to Kentucky today to face a Wildcats team that is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 Saturday games. North Carolina is the pick (+12) according to Dunkel, which has the Wildcats favored by only 9. Dunkel Pick: North Carolina (+12). Here are all of today's NCAA Basketball picks.
SATURDAY, DECEMBER 13
Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST
Game 517-518: Wichita State at Detroit (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wichita State 70.574; Detroit 60.635
Dunkel Line: Wichita State by 10
Vegas Line: Wichita State by 12
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+12)
Game 519-520: North Carolina at Kentucky (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: North Carolina 73.719; Kentucky 82.786
Dunkel Line: Kentucky by 9
Vegas Line: Kentucky by 12
Dunkel Pick: North Carolina (+12)
Game 521-522: LaSalle at Drexel (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LaSalle 56.560; Drexel 58.815
Dunkel Line: Drexel by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 523-524: Drake at WI-Green Bay (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Drake 44.275; WI-Green Bay 64.677
Dunkel Line: WI-Green Bay by 20 1/2
Vegas Line: WI-Green Bay by 16 1/2
Dunkel Pick: WI-Green Bay (-16 1/2)
Game 525-526: St. Mary's at Creighton (2:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Mary's 60.152; Creighton 67.760
Dunkel Line: Creighton by 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Creighton by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Creighton (-5 1/2)
Game 527-528: Dayton at Arkansas (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dayton 59.374; Arkansas 71.811
Dunkel Line: Arkansas by 12 1/2
Vegas Line: Arkansas by 10
Dunkel Pick: Arkansas (-10)
Game 529-530: St. Bonaventure at Pittsburgh (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Bonaventure 59.452; Pittsburgh 65.067
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 8
Dunkel Pick: St. Bonaventure (+8)
Game 531-532: Pepperdine at Arizona State (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pepperdine 57.080; Arizona State 68.670
Dunkel Line: Arizona State by 11 1/2
Vegas Line: Arizona State by 7
Dunkel Pick: Arizona State (-7)
Game 533-534: Oklahoma at Tulsa (2:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma 71.468; Tulsa 62.957
Dunkel Line: Oklahoma by 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Oklahoma by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma (-5 1/2)
Game 535-536: Utah vs. Kansas (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Utah 70.243; Kansas 71.334
Dunkel Line: Kansas by 1
Vegas Line: Kansas by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Utah (+3 1/2)
Game 537-538: Mississippi State at Oregon State (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Mississippi State 58.517; Oregon State 58.412
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: Oregon State by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Mississippi State (+1 1/2)
Game 539-540: Cleveland State at Bowling Green (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland State 56.362; Bowling Green 57.280
Dunkel Line: Bowling Green by 1
Vegas Line: Bowling Green by 3
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland State (+3)
Game 541-542: Xavier at Missouri (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Xavier 64.124; Missouri 62.262
Dunkel Line: Xavier by 2
Vegas Line: Xavier by 5
Dunkel Pick: Missouri (+5)
Game 543-544: Western Kentucky at Mississippi (4:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Western Kentucky 52.296; Mississippi 67.424
Dunkel Line: Mississippi by 15
Vegas Line: Mississippi by 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Mississippi (-10 1/2)
Game 545-546: James Madison at East Carolina (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: James Madison 50.599; East Carolina 50.757
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: East Carolina by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: James Madison (+3 1/2)
Game 547-548: Michigan at Arizona (5:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Michigan 63.580; Arizona 74.101
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Arizona by 12 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Michigan (+12 1/2)
Game 549-550: Oklahoma State at Memphis (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma State 63.183; Memphis 66.370
Dunkel Line: Memphis by 3
Vegas Line: Memphis by 1
Dunkel Pick: Memphis (-1)
Game 551-552: Oregon at Illinois (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oregon 64.307; Illinois 73.161
Dunkel Line: Illinois by 9
Vegas Line: Illinois by 6
Dunkel Pick: Illinois (-6)
Game 553-553: Northern Iowa at VCU (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Iowa 62.775; VCU 66.192
Dunkel Line: VCU by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: VCU by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Northern Iowa (+6 1/2)
Game 555-556: Arkansas State at Toledo (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arkansas State 44.455; Toledo 62.295
Dunkel Line: Toledo by 18
Vegas Line: Toledo by 16
Dunkel Pick: Toledo (-16)
Game 557-558: Middle Tennessee State at Akron (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Middle Tennessee State 55.979; Akron 61.521
Dunkel Line: Akron by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: Akron by 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Middle Tennessee State (+7 1/2)
Game 559-560: UL-Monroe at New Mexico (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UL-Monroe 52.845; New Mexico 63.117
Dunkel Line: New Mexico by 10 1/2
Vegas Line: New Mexico by 12 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UL-Monroe (+12 1/2)
Game 561-562: Youngstown State at Texas A&M (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Youngstown State 50.400; Texas A&M 66.741
Dunkel Line: Texas A&M by 16 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas A&M by 13
Dunkel Pick: Texas A&M (-13)
Game 563-564: Texas State at Texas (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas State 50.219; Texas 70.360
Dunkel Line: Texas by 20
Vegas Line: Texas by 23 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas State (+23 1/2)
Game 565-566: Ball State at Valparaiso (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Ball State 46.465; Valparaiso 61.642
Dunkel Line: Valparaiso by 15
Vegas Line: Valparaiso by 12 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Valparaiso (-12 1/2)
Game 567-568: Florida State at Notre Dame (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida State 61.106; Notre Dame 69.141
Dunkel Line: Notre Dame by 8
Vegas Line: Notre Dame by 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida State (+10 1/2)
Game 569-570: Florida Atlantic at Central Florida (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida Atlantic 51.143; Central Florida 52.517
Dunkel Line: Central Florida by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: Central Florida by 4
Dunkel Pick: Florida Atlantic (+4)
Game 571-572: Princeton at California (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Princeton 50.813; California 60.113
Dunkel Line: California by 9 1/2
Vegas Line: California by 12
Dunkel Pick: Princeton (+12)
Game 573-574: Cincinnati at Nebraska (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 61.437; Nebraska 67.843
Dunkel Line: Nebraska by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Nebraska by 4
Dunkel Pick: Nebraska (-4)
Game 575-576: Purdue at Vanderbilt (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Purdue 65.629; Vanderbilt 59.590
Dunkel Line: Purdue by 6
Vegas Line: Purdue by 2
Dunkel Pick: Purdue (-2)
Game 577-578: CS-Fullerton at Nevada (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: CS-Fullerton 46.117; Nevada 56.445
Dunkel Line: Nevada by 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Nevada by 5
Dunkel Pick: Nevada (-5)
Game 579-580: Gonzaga at UCLA (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Gonzaga 72.465; UCLA 66.024
Dunkel Line: Gonzaga by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Gonzaga by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Gonzaga (-4 1/2)
Game 581-582: Cal Poly at Fresno State (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cal Poly 52.332; Fresno State 55.806
Dunkel Line: Fresno State by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: Fresno State by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cal Poly (+5 1/2)
Game 583-584: Washington State at Santa Clara (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington State 50.752; Santa Clara 53.634
Dunkel Line: Santa Clara by 3
Vegas Line: Santa Clara by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington State (+5 1/2)
Game 585-586: TX-Arlington at UC-Irvine (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: TX-Arlington 48.972; UC-Irvine 58.748
Dunkel Line: UC-Irvine by 10
Vegas Line: UC-Irvine by 12 1/2
Dunkel Pick: TX-Arlington (+12 1/2)
Game 587-588: Morehead State at Ohio State (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Morehead State 52.574; Ohio State 70.073
Dunkel Line: Ohio State by 17 1/2
Vegas Line: Ohio State by 19 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Morehead State (+19 1/2)
Game 641-642: USC Upstate at Maryland (11:00 a.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: USC Upstate 56.054; Maryland 68.537
Dunkel Line: Maryland by 12 1/2
Vegas Line: Maryland by 15 1/2
Dunkel Pick: USC Upstate (+15 1/2)
Game 643-644: Radford at Georgetown (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Radford 48.578; Georgetown 71.321
Dunkel Line: Georgetown by 23
Vegas Line: Georgetown by 14 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Georgetown (-14 1/2)
 

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Football Crusher
Army +15 over Navy
(System Record: 39-5, lost last game)
Overall Record: 39-40-2
 

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Basketball Crusher
Milwaukee Bucks +5 over LA Clippers
(System Record: 20-0, lost last 3 games)
Overall Record: 20-23
-1

Rest of the Plays
Indiana Pacers +4.5 over Portland
Dallas Mavericks -1 over Golden State Warriors
USC Upstate +15 over Maryland
 

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