Service Plays Saturday 12/12/15

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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GL!

 

[Kelmaron]

Jack Jones

NCAAF
20* Army/Navy under 53

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Big Moves Consensus

500 Army / Navy Under 51
800 UFC Luke Rockhold +110

 

[68UpperNorth]

bookieshunter NCAAF
Navy -22 vs. Army Navy -22 (2*)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Ben Burns CFB

MAIN EVENT - Army

 

[BuzzKill]

FYI - Up to date football newsletters are available in the Newsletter Thread in the Rubber Room

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Top NCAAF Public Bets

#1 204 Utah 86%
#2 231 Indiana 82%
#3 228 Washington State 82%
#4 256 USC 81%
#5 246 Colorado State 80%
#6 254 Texas A&M 78%

#7 238 Navy 78%

#8 216 Temple 77%
#9 266 Michigan 74%
#10 244 North Carolina

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

DR. BOB

UNDER (51½) – Army (+22) 13 Navy 30

Teams that defend the option the best are option teams and Army’s horrible defense is relatively much better against option teams. Army’s defense is 1.2 yards per play worse than average for the season (6.3 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.1 yppl against an average team) but most of that is due to a horrible pass defense that won’t be as much of an issue in this game against a Navy team that figures to run 80% to 90% of the time. Army actually defends the run at a decent level (5.1 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would combine to average 4.8 yprp against an average team) and the Knights held Air Force to just 4.55 yprp in a 3-20 loss earlier this season. Army also allowed an average of just 20 points to Air Force and Navy last season while giving up 37.7 points per game against non-option teams. On the flip side, Army’s only advantage against most opponents is the fact that they run the option but the Cadets, who have averaged between 23 and 27 points per game the last 6 years (24.6 average) have managed to average only 16.5 points in 11 games against Air Force and Navy.

The combination of Army’s bad defense being much better against option teams and their own offense not functioning as well against teams that know how to defend it have led to Army going 14-3-1 UNDER in their last 18 games against fellow military schools. Navy, meanwhile, is 17-2 UNDER in their last 19 games against Army and Air Force, including 8 consecutive unders heading into this game. Given those numbers it should be no surprise that the Army-Navy game has gone Under in each of the last 9 years. In general, games involving two military teams are 34-13 Under, including 27-7 Under when the total is 48 points or higher. I’ll go UNDER in a 1-Star Best Bet at 50 points or higher (Strong Opinion down to 49 points).

Navy has a better than average defense so the Midshipmen won’t benefit as much from their knowledge of defending the option as Army will, which supplies line value on the big underdog. My math gives Army a 54.8% chance of covering and I’ll consider Army a Strong Opinion at +21 points or more.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

StatFox Super Situations

NBA | NEW ORLEANS at CHICAGO
Play Under - Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 after going under the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team
41-15 over the last 5 seasons. ( 73.2% | 24.5 units )
3-1 this year. ( 75.0% | 1.9 units )

NBA | LA CLIPPERS at BROOKLYN
Play Against - Any team vs the money line (LA CLIPPERS) poor defensive team - allowing 99+ points/game on the season, after scoring 80 points or less
131-60 over the last 5 seasons. ( 68.6% | 52.0 units )
9-1 this year. ( 90.0% | 8.0 units )

NBA | LA LAKERS at HOUSTON
Play Under - Home teams where the first half total is 100.5 to 105.5 terrible defensive team - allowing 103+ points/game on the season, after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games
95-49 over the last 5 seasons. ( 66.0% | 41.1 units )
12-8 this year. ( 60.0% | 3.2 units )

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

StatFox Super Situations

CBB | IL-CHICAGO at ILLINOIS
Play Under - Neutral court teams against the total an average offensive team (67-74 PPG) against a poor defensive team (74-78 PPG), after allowing 80 points or more
41-15 since 1997. ( 73.2% | 24.5 units )
0-1 this year. ( 0.0% | -1.1 units )

CBB | AUBURN at MIDDLE TENN ST
Play Against - Road favorites vs. the money line (AUBURN) explosive offensive team - scoring 84+ points/game on the season, after scoring 75 points or more 2 straight games
35-27 over the last 5 seasons. ( 56.5% | 29.3 units )
4-3 this year. ( 57.1% | 2.7 units )

CBB | PORTLAND ST at SIU EDWARDSVL
Play Under - Road teams where the first half total is 65.5 to 70.5 after a loss by 10 points or more, with 2 more starters returning from last year than opponent
46-18 over the last 5 seasons. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )
3-1 this year. ( 75.0% | 1.9 units )

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

StatFox Super Situations

CFB | ARMY at NAVY
Play Under - All teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 with a poor defense - allowing 5.8 or more yards/play, after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game
46-18 over the last 5 seasons. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )
6-5 this year. ( 54.5% | 0.5 units )

CFB | ARMY at NAVY
Play Against - Any team (NAVY) in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences, after a road game where both teams score 31 points or more
66-31 since 1997. ( 68.0% | 31.9 units )
1-2 this year. ( 33.3% | -1.2 units )

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty had no play on Friday and likes Navy on Saturday.

The deficit is 1294 sirignanos.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CAPPERS ACCESS

(CFB)Navy
(CBB)UConn
(CBB)Marquette
(CBB)UCLA

 

[ballZZZ]

Line Drive Sports

2* Navy -21'
2* Under 52

 

[tgunn11]

Football CrusherColgate +11 over Sam Houston State(System Record: 39-3, lost last game)Overall Record: 39-38-2Rest of the PlaysNorth Dakota State -7 over Northern Iowa

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

EZWINNERS

Saturday Selections NCAAB

2* (535) Youngstown State +28

2* (552) Texas A&M -8.5

 

[tgunn11]

Football Crusher
Colgate +11 over Sam Houston State
(System Record: 39-3, lost last game)
Overall Record: 39-38-2

Rest of the Plays
North Dakota State -7 over Northern Iowa

 

[tgunn11]

Hockey Crusher
Minnesota Wild + San Jose Sharks OVER 5
(System Record: 27-1, won last 2 games)
Overall Record: 27-28-8

Rest of the Plays
Ottawa Senators + Montreal Canadiens UNDER 5.5
Florida Panthers + Boston Bruins OVER 5
Colorado Avalanche + Nashville Predators UNDER 5.5

 

[tgunn11]

Basketball Crusher
Marquette +7.5 over Wisconsin
(System Record: 23-1, lost last game)
Overall Record: 23-22

Rest of the Plays
Utah +2.5 over Wichita State
George Mason +7.5 over James Madison
Middle Tennessee +1 over Auburn

 

[tgunn11]

Soccer Crusher
Kortrijk + Mouscron Peruwelz OVER 2
This match is happening in Belgium
(System Record: 873-26, won last 5 games)
Overall Record: 873-687-135