STATSYSTEMS SPORTS NCAAF STAT/SHEETS
SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 22nd 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** NCAA College Football Information – Week #13 *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every week during the 2014-15 NCAA College Football season we will analyze all of your daily football action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of StatSystems Sports. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
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College Football Week #12 Results
•Top 25 Notes
It was a rough day for teams in the Top 10, particularly against the spread. Alabama-Mississippi State faced each other, and Top 10 teams finished 4-3 straight-up. Worse, only one Top 10 team covered in seven encounters, with the only cover coming in that head-to-head matchup between the Crimson Tide and Bulldogs. Marshall kept its sheet clean with another impressive victory, topping Rice 44-21. The Thundering Herd is now 10-0 SU, and they have covered eight of their past nine. Notre Dame slipped up at home against Northwestern by a 43-40 score in overtime, and the Fighting Irish have gone from national title contenders to has-beens in a matter of two weeks (and two losses). In the game of the day, Florida State did their usual disappearing act in the first half, only to storm back in Miami for a second-half comeback and win. The 'Noles weren't covering until the final 3:05 of regulation. The Seminoles are still just 3-7 ATS this season.
•Big Five Conference Report (ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Pac-12, SEC)
-- It was a disastrous day in the ACC, and one which could have been even worse had FSU fallen.... Georgia Tech took advantage of an injury to Clemson QB DeShaun Watson in the first quarter, rambling to a 28-6 win over the wreck that is the Tigers and backup QB Cole Stoudt. The Jackets have erupted for four straight wins and covers since October. 18th.... Duke did something they have rarely done over the past two seasons - beat themselves. They blew a fourth-quarter lead and fell 17-16 at home, knocking them out of the driver's seat in the Coastal Division.... North Carolina State became bowl eligible by throttling Wake Forest 42-13. The Wolfpack have now covered three of the past four, and they're 6-3 ATS over the past nine.
-- There were just three games in the Big 12 Conference, and the underdog covered in two.... Texas Christian was behind at half at lowly Kansas, and needed second-half heroics to scratch out an uninspiring 34-30 win. Playoff committee is likely NOT impressed.... Oklahoma was without injured quarterback Trevor Knight, but they still won 42-30 on the road at Texas Tech. The Sooners are just 3-3 straight-up and 1-5 versus the spread over the past six games. The best trend for Boomer Sooner is the Over has cashed in six of their past seven.
-- It a solid day for the Big Ten Conference, with road teams going 3-2 straight-up in league games and home teams going 3-2 against the spread.... As mentioned, Northwestern scored their big road win in South Bend, and Penn State stepped out of conference and handled its business against Temple, 30-13.... Wisconsin covered its game against Nebraska thanks in large part to RB Melvin Gordon, who rambled for an FBS-record 408 rushing yards.
-- It was a weekend of the dog in the Pac-12 Conference. Underdogs went 2-2 straight-up and a perfect 4-0 versus the number. Washington nearly pulled the road upset, losing 27-26 at Arizona.... Meanwhile, Arizona State fumbled away its chances at a spot in the four-team playoff, losing outright at Oregon State, 35-27. The Beavers entered the game 0-4 SU/ATS over the past four.... Utah scored another impressive win at Stanford, tripping up the Cardinal 20-17 in double-overtime. The Utes are 5-1 ATS in their past six games, and 8-2 ATS in their 10 games overall.
-- It was an upside-down day in the Southeastern Conference. It all started in the Swamp, as the heat is back on Florida head coach Will Muschamp after a brief stay of execution. South Carolina had a feel-good moment, winning 23-20 in overtime in the Swamp, cashing as 6.5-point underdogs.... Speaking of 'dogs, Mississippi State didn't have much bark early, going down 19-0 at Alabama. Of course, anyone who liked the Bulldogs getting 10 enjoyed the final minute. See bad beats below.... Georgia roughed up Auburn, who started the season as cover kings, but now cannot even come close. The Tigers are an uncharacteristic 1-4 ATS over the past five, and 2-6 ATS over the past eight.
•Mid-Major Report
-- Not many people figured Memphis would amount to much this season, but the Tigers continue to roll on. They romped 38-7 at Tulane to stay on track for a New Year's Day bowl game. The Tigers are 4-2 straight-up on the road, and 4-1-1 against the spread. ... Central Florida started the season slow while trying to replace quarterback Blake Bortles. They'll finally hitting on all cylinders at just the right time. The Knights rubbed out Tulsa 31-7 on Friday, and they're now 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS over the past seven.
-- In Conference USA, Marshall keeps mowing 'em down. Rice came in 6-0 both straight-up and versus the spread over the past six, so the Thundering Herd's 41-14 win is that much more impressive.... Don't look now, but Texas-El Paso is bowl eligible, and they're starting to be a favorite of bettors. Over the past five games, UTEP is 4-1 straight-up and a perfect 5-0 against the spread. They travel to Houston to take on Rice Friday night.
-- The Mountain West was the upset west Saturday. The only favorite to cover was Air Force, and they needed overtime to shed Nevada, 45-38. Quietly, and I mean VERY quietly, Air Force finds themselves at 8-2 straight-up. They have won four straight, and the Falcons have covered the past three.... Hawaii has had trouble on the mainland this season, going 0-4 SU/0-3-1 ATS in four previous trips. However, they ended all of that misery with a surprising 13-0 win at San Jose State.... Boise State turned back San Diego State 38-29, but despite a five-game win streak, they have failed to cover in three of the past four. The Over is a perfect 5-0 in the past five for the Broncos.
-- Appalachian State pulled off an upset as a 15-point underdog, taking down Arkansas State in Jonesboro by a 37-32 score. After starting the season 1-5 straight-up and versus the number, the Mountaineers have rattled off four straight wins and they're 3-1 ATS during the span. The Over is also 4-1 in their past five.... Troy looked to be dead in the water October 30th in an uninspired 42-10 loss at Georgia Southern. However, the Trojans have won back-to-back games for the first time this season, and they're 3-1 ATS over the past four. Over the past seven, they're 5-2 ATS.
•Bad Beats
-- In that marquee matchup in the Southeastern Conference, Mississippi State struck with 15 seconds left to pull within five points, covering a 10-point number, and therefore turning Crimson Tide bettors' winning tickets into a loss.
-- Some bettors might have had long faces at the end of the Louisiana-Lafayette and Louisiana-Monroe game. Some bettors might have had the spread at 6.5 points, and therefore were perfectly content. However, if you were laying a full seven, the WarHawks struck with 1:47 left in regulation to close a 34-20 lead to just seven, turning a cover into a push.
-- If you had the Over (52.5) in the New Mexico-Utah State contest, you were left shaking your head. Utah State lead 21-14 at halftime, and then there are 42 total points midway through the third quarter. Then, the defense kicked in and over the final 22:35 of the game, the teams combined for a total of just seven points and a shocking Under result.
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Week #13 Top-25 Matchups
Systems Analyst James Vogel
#133 RUTGERS @ #134 MICHIGAN ST - 12:00 PM
The Spartans got back on track last week with a dominant win at Maryland, creating turnovers and winning the yardage battle soundly. For Michigan State the season goals are gone but this is a team that should still finish out the season strong. Rutgers delivered a big win last week that made the Knights bowl eligible, a good showing for a team most expected to crash in the move to the Big Ten. It was a misleading final score for the Knights last week against Indiana with a number of big breaks and against the top teams in the conference Rutgers has not held up well. In the final home game for Michigan State it could get ugly quickly.
#135 MINNESOTA @ #136 NEBRASKA - 12:00 PM
The Cornhuskers just have not been able to solve Wisconsin with an embarrassing loss in what most assume was the game to decide the Big Ten West. Minnesota can still have a say in things but last Saturday’s seven-point loss at home to Ohio State was not as close as it appeared. This should be a big revenge game for Nebraska after the Gophers stunned the Cornhuskers last season but this year’s game is in Lincoln. Nebraska has an impressive track record in final home games over the years and this is a team with a lot on the line still in the Big Ten pecking order and with an embattled head coach that can’t seem to get over the hump. While Minnesota like Wisconsin is a rush-first team with a limited passing game, the conditions should be more favorable for Nebraska this week.
#137 VANDERBILT @ #138 MISSISSIPPI ST - 7:30 PM
In a huge opportunity last week Mississippi State fell behind early and the comeback bid fell short despite posting 428 yards against Alabama. The Bulldogs will now cheer for Auburn to upset the Tide next week while Mississippi State must take care of business this week and in next week’s Egg Bowl. This could be a flat spot in the schedule in between two massive games and off the team’s first loss but the offensive edge for the Bulldogs should be tremendous, a full two yards superior in yards per play this season. Mississippi State has out-gained nine of 10 opponents this season while the opposite is true for Vanderbilt in what has been a difficult transition season. While it is not an ideal situation, the matchup is favorable for the hosting Bulldogs to close their home schedule with a big win.
#139 INDIANA @ #140 OHIO ST - 12:00 PM
In difficult weather and with some big mistakes Ohio State still was in command last week despite a failed road favorite cover at Minnesota. Next week’s rivalry game with Michigan looms large but the Buckeyes have to play for national attention as well knowing they are currently on the outside looking in. Postseason hopes for Indiana have been extinguished with now five straight losses and while the Hoosiers are an underdog that can run the ball, they can’t do much else and this may be a program heading for changes with another disappointing season. Ohio State has completely dominated the last four home games with massive scoring and yardage edges and even with a big number it is tough to fade the Buckeyes right now.
#153 BOSTON COLLEGE @ #154 FLORIDA ST - 12:00 PM
Everyone pegged last week’s game with Miami has the toughest spot for Florida State’s undefeated run and per usual the Seminoles pulled out another comeback win. This could be the more dangerous game at home off a big win and looking ahead to a more prominent game with Florida at home next week. Boston College is rested coming off a loss to Louisville that had a very misleading final. The Eagles are 6-4 with one of the better rushing offenses in the nation and last year against a far stronger Florida State team that won the national title, BC lost by just 14 in a fairly even statistical game. This is a huge opportunity for a fiery Eagles team that beat USC earlier this season and will be a tougher team to come back against given the ball control offense. A highly motivated underdog that should have a big edge on the ground can be an upset threat this week.
#171 OLE MISS @ #172 ARKANSAS - 3:30 PM
Ole Miss can still win the SEC West and be in the national playoff. They need Auburn to beat Alabama next week and a highly anticipated Egg Bowl is waiting next week in that equation for the Rebels, which is moot if they don’t win this week. Arkansas snapped its long SEC losing streak with a shutout win over LSU last week, playing well but also catching LSU in an impossible emotional spot. It has been three weeks since the Rebels have had a meaningful game and Mississippi is coming off two straight SEC defeats in brutally tough narrow late fashion. Mississippi won by 10 last season as a heavy favorite and this could be a difficult spot for Arkansas to come back from a huge win for the program now going against one of the toughest run defenses in the nation. The Arkansas defense has not been as good as it looked last week and the situation favors the road favorite.
#173 OKLAHOMA ST @ #174 BAYLOR - 7:30 PM
Baylor’s case for the national playoff is going to be a tough sell but the Bears have dominated the last two games and with at least 45 points in all but two games this season this is one of the top offensive teams in the nation. It has been a huge step back for a young Oklahoma State team beset by injuries this season and with four straight losses and only 40 points scored in that run it appears that an eight-year bowl run will end for the Cowboys. Last season Oklahoma State won 49-17 in a stunning upset that ended a perfect season plan for the Bears and potentially cost the team a spot in the national title game. This is a huge number but a lot is at stake for Baylor who may need some style points to get back in the national conversation.
#177 COLORADO @ #178 OREGON - 3:30 PM
Despite the early season loss to Arizona things have lined up well for Oregon in the Pac-12. They have already clinched the Pac-12 North and this is a game that could get overlooked with the Civil War next week and the Pac-12 Championship game ahead for a team that should be a lock for the national playoff if they win out. At 2-8 it seems like another terrible season for Colorado but the program has taken big strides with a much more competitive conference season despite no wins. Only one of seven Pac-12 losses has been by more than 18 points and the Buffaloes gave serious scares to several teams with two losses coming in OT. Last season Oregon won 57-16 in this matchup in Boulder with 755 yards for the Ducks and this could be a showcase game for the Marcus Mariota Heisman case. The Oregon defense has been shaky at times however and a team riding five straight wins and covers will be overvalued.
#179 LOUISVILLE @ #180 NOTRE DAME - 3:30 PM
Notre Dame has played well in its biggest games but has also had some shaky efforts as a huge favorite and the Irish got caught last week in a stunning loss with much of the focus on a late coaching blunder. This is a huge opportunity for Louisville with a rare chance to face the prominent national power in what could be a budding rivalry for regional foes. The Cardinals have tremendous numbers on defense allowing just 286 yards per game on only 4.5 yards per play. The Louisville offense has had serious struggles however particularly running the ball and if Notre Dame can avoid turnovers they should have the superior squad.
#187 ARIZONA @ #188 UTAH - 7:00 PM
t has been a charmed season for Utah who has the worst offensive numbers in the Pac-12 and has been out-gained in all seven Pac-12 games yet somehow the Utes are 7-3 with four conference wins. Arizona has pulled out a few fortunate wins as well this season and the Wildcats are still in the mix in the Pac-12 South. The Utah defense has done a good job this season keeping the team in games despite the awful production from the offense but Arizona has scored at least 26 points in all but one game this season. Two of three losses for Utah in this season came at home and this is not a team that can be trusted to lay points against a highly productive Arizona team that has also had a knack for winning tight games.
#191 GEORGIA ST @ #192 CLEMSON - 7:00 PM
Clemson has averaged fewer than 30 points per game this season and Deshaun Watson was injured again last week. Clemson has failed to cover in five straight games and next week’s game with South Carolina surely will generate more attention. Georgia State has lost nine in a row as the Panthers face a third straight road game though it is off a bye week last week. While the Tigers have a huge edge on defense the offensive numbers are comparable and with a huge spread this game should mean more for the heavy underdog looking to compete against one of the bigger programs in the region. Clemson’s place in the ACC and bowl picture is pretty well set so there is not much at stake and next week’s game obviously means much more especially in a down year for the Gamecocks.
#193 WASHINGTON ST @ #194 ARIZONA ST - 1:00 PM
The Sun Devils fell victim to the letdown spot last week, losing at Oregon State after the big win over Notre Dame propelled Arizona State into the national spotlight. The Sun Devils won 55-21 in this matchup last season in Pullman but the Cougars are 1-0 behind redshirt freshman quarterback Lucas Falk who had a brilliant debut. Despite the contrasting records the statistics are relatively close for these teams and it may be tough for the Sun Devils to get back up given that they surrendered the Pac-12 South lead last week. Washington State has not been reliable but they can score points and this is a tough spot for the Sun Devils to bounce back. Arizona State also has its huge rivalry game with Arizona up next Friday on a short week as this could be flat home date for the favored Sun Devils.
#205 USC @ #206 UCLA - 8:00 PM
USC has not had great success in this series but this is a great opportunity for an under the radar Trojans team to get back in the national conversation. UCLA is in slightly better position in what is now a tight Pac-12 South race but this is essentially an elimination game. Three losses for USC have come by a total of 13 points and Cody Kessler is quietly having a phenomenal statistical season despite UCLA quarterback Brett Hundley getting far more attention. Both UCLA losses came at home this season and the Bruins are just 1-3 ATS at home this season, only covering in the win over Arizona where they scored just 17 points. These defenses have identical yards per play numbers but the scoring defense for USC has been much stronger and the offenses are closer than one might expect across the board. UCLA has won convincingly the past two seasons in this city rivalry but the underdog has covered in five of the past eight meetings and UCLA has been a shaky favorite this season. UCLA barely out-gained USC last season despite the 21-point margin of victory and the underdog looks worth supporting this season with the Bruins facing more pressure in 1st place.
Gridiron Trends - Week #13
Systems Analyst Erik Jeromin
•TULANE is 3-23 ATS (-22.3 Units) versus excellent offensive teams - averaging >=450 yards/game since 1992.
The average score was TULANE 16.0, OPPONENT 43.7.
•S FLORIDA is 10-0 UNDER (+10.0 Units) off a close win by 7 points or less over a conference rival since 1992.
The average score was S FLORIDA 16.0, OPPONENT 21.2.
•WASHINGTON ST is 1-10 (-25.2 Units) against the money line versus poor passing defenses - allowing a completion percentage of 58% or worse over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was WASHINGTON ST 29.6, OPPONENT 40.3.
•BOISE ST is 17-2 (+14.8 Units) against the 1rst half line after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers since 1992.
The average score was BOISE ST 27.9, OPPONENT 7.8.
•IOWA is 14-1 UNDER (+12.9 Units) the 1rst half total versus dominant ball control teams, 32+ minutes TOP, 21+ FD's per game since 1992.
The average score was IOWA 8.0, OPPONENT 11.6.
•KIRK FERENTZ is 22-3 ATS (+18.7 Units) versus excellent rushing teams - averaging >=5.25 rushing yards/carry as the coach of IOWA.
The average score was FERENTZ 29.8, OPPONENT 21.8.
•SONNY DYKES is 9-0 OVER (+9.0 Units) versus good rushing defenses - allowing <=120 rushing yards/game in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was DYKES 37.0, OPPONENT 47.2.
•MARK HUDSPETH is 16-2 (+20.2 Units) against the money line after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored as the coach of LA LAFAYETTE.
The average score was HUDSPETH 33.6, OPPONENT 25.9.
•DARRELL HAZELL is 11-1 (+9.9 Units) against the 1rst half line after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was HAZELL 18.8, OPPONENT 11.2.
•DABO SWINNEY is 12-1 OVER (+10.9 Units) the 1rst half total versus poor rushing teams - averaging <=120 rushing yards/game as the coach of CLEMSON.
The average score was SWINNEY 19.4, OPPONENT 18.5.
Situational Analysis Of The Week
•Play Against - Home underdogs versus the money line (WYOMING) - average rushing defensive team (140-190 RY/G) against a good rushing team (190-230 RY/G), after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record.
(91-7 over the last 5 seasons.) (92.9%, +76.5 units. Rating = 7*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -206.4
The average score in these games was: Team 35.7, Opponent 20.1 (Average point differential = +15.6)
The situation's record this season is: (19-1, +17.5 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (55-3, +48.1 units).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (154-44, +51.9 units).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (299-105, -41.1 units).
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