Dr. Bob
Note: The lines quoted are the consensus line at the time each game was released to my subscribers on my Best Bets release page. The lines have moved so make sure to pay attention to the line constraints at the end of each analysis for the current rating of each game.
**Southern Miss (+8) 24 UTSA 23
The Southern Miss defense is why the Eagles are a bad team, as that unit has surrendered 36.8 points per game on 454 yards at 6.7 yppl while facing teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average defense. However, the UTSA offense is considerably worse, as the Roadrunners are 1.6 yppl worse than average (details above). UTSA is 0.3 yppl worse with Austin Robinson at quarterback and the Roadrunners have not been able to take advantage of really bad defensive teams, as they scored an average of just 4.5 points (not a typo) against New Mexico and UTEP, the two worst defensive teams that they’ve faced this season. Robinson was the quarterback when the Roadrunners were shutout as a 14 point home favorite against UTEP a few weeks ago and they scored just 7 points in their subsequent game at Rice last Saturday with Robinson and Carter splitting quarterback duties. Robinson has been named the starter tonight and my math model projects just 313 yards at 4.8 yppl for the Roadrunners in this game.
Southern Miss is clearly as better team from the line of scrimmage, as the Eagles rate at 1.3 yppl worse than average while UTSA is 1.6 yppl worse than average overall (-1.9 yppl with Robinson at quarterback) and Southern Miss is also projected to run more plays from scrimmage. UTSA has a 1.7 points edge in special teams and a 1.7 points edge in projected turnovers but Southern Miss is still the better overall team and the Eagles have a favorable matchup with their pass-heavy offense going up against a UTSA defense that is much worse defending the pass than they are defending the run. I’ll take Southern Miss in a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 points or more and for 1-Star down to +6 points.
**FLORIDA (-6 ½) 38 South Carolina 24
Sat Nov-15-2014 at 09:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 370 Over/Under 58.5
Florida has regained their swagger a bit with their 38-20 beat down of rival Georgia and their subsequent 34-10 win at Vanderbilt last week. The suddenly enthusiastic Gators should continue their recent run of success with a win over the staggering Gamecocks, who have lost 4 out of their last 5 games. A bye week could restore a bit of energy to the team but a bye week is not going to solve South Carolina’s lack of talent on defense, a unit that has allowed 6.6 yards per rushing play and 7.1 yards per pass play to FBS opponents. The Gamecocks’ defense has allowed an atrocious 6.8 yards per play or more in 7 of their 8 games against FBS foes, including Vanderbilt and Tennessee, who are not known for their offense. Florida is not known for their offense either but the Gators’ attack has improved with Treon Harris as the starting quarterback the last two games. Florida’s offense is just average based on season stats (adjusted for opposing defenses) but the Gators have averaged 6.6 yards per play in two games with Harris at quarterback against Georgia and Vanderbilt defensive units that would combine to allow 5.3 yppl to an average attack. I do not that the Florida is actually 1.3 yppl better than average, as they 7.2 yppl they gained against Georgia is likely a case of variance, as the Bulldogs were not ready for the Gators’ game plan in Harris’ first start, but Florida was 0.3 yppl better than average last week against Vanderbilt and I actually rate that unit at 0.3 yppl better than average heading into this game, which is a 0.3 yppl upgrade over their season rating. South Carolina’s defense is 0.8 yppl worse than average and my math model projects 477 yards at 7.0 yppl for the Gators in this game with a projection of over 300 rushing yards at 6.6 yards per run.
While Florida is controlling the ball with their rushing attack the Gators’ solid defense, which is 0.9 yppl better than average, should slow down a very good Gamecocks’ attack that is 1.2 yppl better than average. South Carolina’s offense does have a 0.3 yppl advantage (although not as much on the road) and my math model projects 400 total yards at 5.8 yppl for the Gamecocks in this game. Florida’s overall advantage from the line of scrimmage is 0.8 yppl and the math projects a 77 yards edge from the line of scrimmage while the Gators have a 2.5 points advantage in special teams and a 2.5 points advantage in projected turnovers. This should be a double-digit win by the Gators and my math model gives Florida a very profitable 58.2% chance of covering at -6 ½ points and a still very profitable 55.9% at -7 points (based on the historical performance of my model). I’ll take Florida in a 2-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less (Strong Opinion at higher than -7).
**ARKANSAS STATE (-13 ½) 40 Appalachian State 19
Sat Nov-15-2014 at 12:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 352 Over/Under 65.0
Appalachian State is a bit of a bully that beats up on bad teams but doesn’t compete well against better teams. The Mountaineers have wins of 66-0 over Campbell (a team that is about 50 points worse than an average FBS team), a 53-14 win over Troy and a 44-0 win over Georgia State but they’ve also lost at home to Liberty by giving up 55 points and have been beaten by 38 points at Michigan, by 20 points at Georgia Southern, and by 26 points at home by South Alabama. Arkansas State is actually the best team that Appalachian State will face this season and the Mountaineers’ 3 game winning streak (all against bad teams of course) should come to an ugly end today. In fact, that winning streak sets up Appalachian State in a very rare 2-41 ATS letdown situation that has only occurred one other time this season (a 27 point loss by North Carolina at Miami that I cashed in on). Arkansas State, meanwhile, is 7-2 ATS and the Red Wolves have made a habit of dominating bad teams (they’re a bully too) with an average margin of victory of 26.8 points in 5 games as a favorite of more than 7 points with an average line of -12 points in those games. This game is not so much about line value, although my math model does give Arkansas State a 53.5% chance of covering at -14 points based solely on the math, but rather than 41-2 ATS situation going against Appalachian State and a 155-61-2 ATS home momentum situation that applies to Arkansas State. I’ll take Arkansas State in a 2-Star Best Bet at -14 points or less (a Strong Opinion at more than -14).
***ALABAMA (-7 at -115) 38 Mississippi State 21
Sat Nov-15-2014 at 12:30 PM Pacific Rotation: 396 Over/Under 52.0
I'll post analysis of this game later. Alabama is 3-Stars at -9 1/2 or less and 2-Stars at -10.
***TENNESSEE (-7 at -115) 36 Kentucky 18
Sat Nov-15-2014 at 01:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 336 Over/Under 54.0
My math model would favor Tennessee by 11 ½ points in this game even without factoring in how much better the Volunteers’ offense is with Joshua Dobbs at quarterback. Dobbs replaced backup Nathan Peterman after a couple of series a few week ago against Alabama and was impressive in leading the Vols back from a 0-20 1st quarterback hole to a respectable 20-34 loss while posting solid stats against an elite Alabama defense (he averaged 5.5 yards per pass play and tallied 84 yards on 18 runs). I took Tennessee as a Best Bet as a dog at South Carolina and Dobbs led the Vols to a 45-42 overtime win with 7.5 yards per pass play and 166 rushing yards on 24 runs against a sub-par South Carolina defense. Dobbs was 3rd on the depth chart coming into this season perhaps partially based on what was considered poor play in 4 starts at the end of last season but he actually wasn’t bad at all last year, as he averaged 5.6 yards per play (passing and running combined) while facing a slate of good defensive teams that would allow just 5.3 yards per play to an average team. Dobbs’ passing numbers were 0.6 yards per pass play below average but he ran for 259 yards on 31 runs to make up for it. Dobbs still hasn’t established himself as a great passer, although he’s been 1.0 yppp better than average in two games this season (6.6 yppp against teams that would allow 5.6 yppp to an average QB), but his career rating on 201 pass plays is average (5.5 yppp against teams that would allow 5.5 yppp) and that’s an upgrade from the team rating of -0.4 yppp and over former starter Justin Worley (-0.5 yppp). Dobbs’ running is what really adds to the offense, as he’s run for 250 yards at 6.0 yards per rushing play in two games this season and has averaged 7.0 yprp in his career. The Tennessee running backs also become more effective running the read option with Dobbs since opposing defenses can no longer only focus on the backs with Dobbs to worry about. Kentucky can’t stop a good team, as the Wildcats have allowed an average of 301 rushing yards at 6.6 yards per rushing play to the 5 better than average running teams they’ve faced this season (Florida, South Carolina, LSU, Miss State, and Georgia). Overall Kentucky’s run defense has been 0.4 yprp worse than average but they’ve been 0.7 yprp worse than average against good running teams and Tennessee’s read option attack with Dobbs should move the ball on the ground with consistency in this game (6.2 yprp projected) while I project Dobbs to average a decent 6.0 yards per pass play using his career rating, which is lower than his pass rating in two games this season, but likely more accurate.
While the Tennessee offense is better with Dobbs at quarterback the Vols’ defense is underrated. Tennessee’s defensive numbers are a bit better than average at 25.0 points and 376 yards per game allowed at 5.5 yppl but those numbers become very good when you consider that the opposing offenses that they’ve faced would combine to average 35.3 points and 448 yards per game at 6.3 yppl against an average defensive team. Tennessee’s defensive numbers have also been skewed by allowing big passing numbers to elite offensive teams Oklahoma, Alabama and South Carolina, who combined for 9.5 yards per pass play against the Vols. However, Tennessee has yielded 5.1 yppp or less in their other 6 games, including games against Ole’ Miss and Georgia and they’ll surely be able to shut down a sub-par Kentucky pass attack that’s averaged only 5.3 yppp this season (against teams that would allow 5.8 yppp to an average team). The Wildcats do have a slightly better than average rushing attack (5.0 yprp against teams that would allow 4.8 yprp) but Tennessee’s run defense is better (5.0 yprp allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yprp against an average team) and the ‘Cats are projected to run for just 4.7 yprp and throw for only 4.4 yppp in this game. That won’t be enough to keep up with a Tennessee attack that should have an easy time moving the chains with their effective ground attack and solid passing. Overall, the math projects 481 yards at 6.1 yppl for Tennessee and just 318 yards at 4.6 yppl for Kentucky, which is likely to produce a double-digit win. The fact that my math model favored Tennessee by 11 ½ points before adjusting for Dobbs at quarterback is comforting and I’ll take Tennessee in a 3-Star Best Bet at -9 ½ or less, for 2-Stars at -10 and for 1-Star up to -11 points.
***MIAMI-FLORIDA (+3 at -120) 37 Florida State 27
Sat Nov-15-2014 at 05:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 372 Over/Under 62.0
I’ve been anticipating this game for some time and while I’ve made a good profit the last month backing Miami in blowout wins over Cincinnati, Virginia Tech and North Carolina but I actually wish they hadn’t been so impressive since we would have gotten more points than we are. The casual fan might wonder how the #3 team in the nation would be only a 2 ½ or 3 point favorite against an unranked team but public perception is the only reason that Florida State is favored at all as the odds makers surely know that Miami is the better team.
Miami opened the season with a 13-31 loss at Louisville with a freshman quarterback that wasn’t quite prepared at the time given that he was slotted as the 3rd or 4th string quarterback. An injury to the Hurricanes’ starting quarterback and a suspension of backup Olsen put frosh Brad Kaaya at the controls in that opener against a dominating defense with a limited and conservative playbook that hindered Kaaya’s chances to succeed. After a 41-7 win over lowly Florida A&M the coaching staff finally took off the training wheels and expanded the playbook by allowing Kaaya to throw downfield more, which also allowed the rushing attack to blossom since opposing defenses could no longer simply concentrate on stopping the running of stud Duke Johnson and the other gifted Miami running backs. For the season Miami has averaged 7.2 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.5 yppl to an average attack and that attack has been 2.0 yards per play better than average since week 3 (7.6 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl) with Kaaya averaging 8.6 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 6.0 yppp to an average quarterback) and Duke Johnson and company averaging 234 yards at 6.9 yards per rushing play (against teams that would allow 5.3 yprp to an average team). I have plenty of respect for Florida State’s offense but the Seminoles’ defense is barely better than average, having allowed 5.3 yards per play this season to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average defensive team. Miami should have little trouble moving the ball I this game and my math model projects 464 yards at 7.4 yppl for the Canes in this game.
While Miami moving the ball well is highly likely the real battle will be between Jameis Winston and the Miami defense, which is vastly underrated. Miami has allowed just 4.8 yards per play this season to a collection of FBS teams that would combine to average 6.0 yppl against an average defensive team. Florida State’s offense has been 1.5 yppl better than average with Winston at quarterback (he missed the Clemson game) and I was impressive by how the Seminoles’ offense stepped up their level of play in the 2nd half of their come from behind win at Louisville against a very good Cardinals’ defense. Florida State does have a 0.3 yppl advantage over Miami’s defense and my math model projects 408 total yards at 5.8 yppl for the Seminoles in this game, but it occurred to me that perhaps Winston is actually relatively better against better defensive teams. I ran a regression of Winston’s yards per pass play number in each game as a function of the strength of the opposing pass defense. The slope of that equation is just 0.18, which means that for every yard per pass play better the opposing defense is Winston has been only 0.18 yppp worse. So, there has been very little correlation this season between the strength of opposing defense and Winston’s performance, although that equation was skewed a lot by the good performance against the only really good pass defense he faced. With that being the case I decided to include last year and the slope of the equation including last year’s games is 0.64, which still means that he’s relatively better against good defensive teams. There is enough evidence with 671 pass plays over 2 years that Winston is likely to perform better than my math would project against a good pass defense (and worse than projected against a bad pass defense) and I applied that to my math projection on this game. The result is that Winston would play 0.63 yppp better than projected, which equates to 2.7 points. However, even with the assumption that Winston will continue his pattern of playing relatively better against good defensive teams I still only project 434 yards at 6.2 yppl for the Seminoles in this game, which is well below the projection of 464 yards at 7.4 yppl for Miami’s potent offense against Florida State’s mediocre defense.
Miami is not only clearly the better team but the Hurricanes apply to a very good 72-22-3 ATS home dog revenge off a bye angle while unbeaten teams (7-0 or better) with less than dominating defensive units are at risk of an upset on the road. In fact, 7-0 or better teams are just 11-36-1 ATS on the road with no revenge if they allow 13 points or more per game on defense and are facing a team on a winning streak (2 or more games). Last year, it was Baylor -9 ½ losing 17-49 at Oklahoma State. In 2011 it was Oklahoma State -27 losing 31-37 at Iowa State. Not only do those unbeaten teams not cover but they have a losing record straight up. Florida State has a great offense that may well indeed rise to the occasion against a good Miami defense but the Seminoles’ defense is not likely to have success defending a well-balanced and potent Hurricanes attack and a win by Miami would not be an upset at all. In fact, I’d be surprised if Florida State has a chance to win late in the 4th quarter (assuming they don’t get lucky with turnovers). I should be making this a 4-Star Best Bet based on the combination of line value and the supporting situations but I’ll play it a bit conservatively and I’ll take Miami-Florida in a 3-Star Best Bet at -1 or better and for 2-Stars up to -2 ½ points.
