Service Plays Saturday 11/01/08

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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Thank you, wilheim..

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[TheRealSlimShady]

$EROCKMONEY$

(1.) Connecticut (+4)
(2.) Rice (-2)
(3.) Purdue (-1.5)
(4.) Boise St. (-20)
(5.) Alabama (-22.5)

 

[ymmit2nd]

the pro source


missouri-19
lsu -25 blowout gow
oregon st-12 pac 10 goy

 

[ymmit2nd]

RON RAYMOND'S 5* BIG 10 GAME OF THE MONTH!
Pick # 1 Northwestern (7.0)

 

[MetsFan44]

Primetime Sports Advisors

Early Releases
5 units West Virginia -4
5 units South Carolina -5.5
5 units Florida -6
5 units Texas Tech +4

 

[Dr.T]

Matt Fargo GOY

Miami +2

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dr. Bob

<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->4 Best Bets this week and 4 Strong Opinions (pay attention to the line constraints).
Rotation #330 Mississippi (-6 1/2) 2-Stars at -7 or less only. Strong Opinion from -7 1/2 to -9 points.
Rotation #360 Texas Tech (+3 1/2) 3-Stars at +3 or more, 2-Stars down to +1.
Rotation #365 Clemson (+4) 2-Stars at +3 or more, 3-Stars at +6 or more.
Rotation #380 LSU (-25) 3-Stars at -26 or less, 2-Stars up to -28.
Strong Opinion - Rotation #350 USC (-44 1/2) Strong Opinion at -45 or less.
Strong Opinion - Rotation #364 Michigan State (-4 1/2) Strong Opinion at -6 or less, 2-Star Best Bet at -3 or less.
Strong Opinion - Rotation #378 Georgia Tech (-2 1/2) Strong Opinion at -3 or less. 2-Star Best Bet at -1 or better.
Strong Opinion - Rotation #381 TCU (-14) Strong Opinion at -14 or less.
Thursday Opinion - Rotation #306 Cincinnati (+2 1/2) Opinion. Strong Opinion at +3 or more.
3 Star Selection
***TEXAS TECH 37 Texas (-3.5) 30
05:00 PM Pacific, 01-Nov-08
I’ll also lean with the Under in this game.
3 Star Selection
***LSU (-25.0) 45 Tulane 10
05:00 PM Pacific, 01-Nov-08
I’ll take LSU in a 3-Star Best Bet at -26 points or less and for 2-Stars from -26 ½ to -28 points.
2 Star Selection
**MISSISSIPPI (-6.5) 28 Auburn 14
09:30 AM Pacific, 01-Nov-08
I’ll take Mississippi in a 2-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less.
2 Star Selection
**Clemson 23 BOSTON COLLEGE (-4.0) 19
12:30 PM Pacific, 01-Nov-08
I’ll take Clemson in a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more (at -1.15 odds or better) and for 3-Stars at +6 points or more.
Thursday Opinion
CINCINNATI 26 S. Florida (-2.5) 23
04:45 PM Pacific, 30-Oct-08
I'd consider Cincinnati a Strong Opinion at +3 or more.
Strong Opinion
MICHIGAN ST. (-4.5) 30 Wisconsin 20
09:00 AM Pacific, 01-Nov-08
I’ll consider Michigan State a Strong Opinion at -6 points or less and I’d take Michigan State in a 2-Star Best Bet at -3 points or less (-1.15 odds or better).
Strong Opinion
GEORGIA TECH (-2.5) 27 Florida St. 19
12:30 PM Pacific, 01-Nov-08
I’ll consider Georgia Tech a Strong Opinion at -3 points or less and I’d take Georgia Tech in a 2-Star Best Bet at -1 or better.
Strong Opinion
USC (-44.5) 54 Washington 3
03:30 PM Pacific, 01-Nov-08
I’ll consider USC a Strong Opinion at -45 points or less and I’d take USC as a 2-Star Best Bet at -42 points or less.
Strong Opinion
TCU (-14.0) 35 UNLV 16
05:00 PM Pacific, 01-Nov-08
I’ll consider TCU a Strong Opinion at -14 points or less.
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sports Wise Guys

5 Star Picks (Week 10):

Connecticut +4.5 over West Virginia
Georgia +5.5 over Florida
Texas -3.5 over Texas Tech
Oregon State -14.5 over Arizona State
Illinois -3 over Iowa

5-Star College FB Picks Season Total: 25-14-5 (62.5%)
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

BIG AL's 5* COLLEGE FOOTBALL GAME OF THE MONTH Saturday

TEXAS TECH


opinion new mexico +7.5
opinion new mexico state +20.5
opinion oklahoma -21.5
opinion arkansas +7
opinion california -3<!-- / message -->
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Allen Eastan

$700.00 -106 Cincinnati (+2.5) over South Florida (7:30 p.m., Thursday, Oct. 30)

$1000.00-105 Michigan State (-4.5) over Wisconsin (Noon, Saturday, Nov. 1)

$900.00 +103 Florida State (+2.5) over Georgia Tech (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 1)

$300.00-108 Florida (-6) over Georgia (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 1)

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[PayMeMyMoney7]

Be Careful wagering on this garbage

RON RAYMOND'S 5* BIG 10 GAME OF THE MONTH!
Pick # 1 Northwestern (7.0)

CJ Bacher Doubtful, Sutton Out.

 

[LongboardLarry]

FOOTBALL JESUS saturday:

Florida Gaotors-6

 

[5dollars]

PICK: Western Michigan
Your pick will be graded at: -17.5 WSEX
EXPERT: David Malinsky
TITLE: Three for the Money - NCAA
REASON FOR PICK: 4* #334 WESTERN MICHIGAN over EASTERN MICHIGAN

Back in the early part of this season we focused on the 12-Game schedule on a ”Verities & Balderdash” column, noting how it would bring elements that would both help and hurt our endeavors. Here is the kind of setting in which it helps in a major way, as the oddsmakers do not factor properly the situation that Eastern Michigan is in. And with Western bringing a focus to not just win here, but to win big, the rout is on the way.

This will be the 10th game in as many weeks for Jeff Genyk’s Eagles. That would be a tough toll for any team, but for a floundering side that has already clinched their 13th straight losing season, and has already lost five games by 22 points or more this season, it is a major uphill battle. As bodies grow even more weary it becomes a psychological challenge to keep playing hard, and when the losses keep adding up they are the kind of team that will not meet that challenge. And when it comes to uphill battles, imagine the effect on the psyche of a team that has not scored in the first quarter of a lined game all season, getting out-scored a combined 65-0.

Western Michigan will not only want to extend that run with an early jump, but we do not see the Broncos ever backing off here. While Eastern comes in tired, they instead get two full weeks to prepare for a game that has been circled on their calendar for 12 months, after they turned the ball over six times in a humbling road loss to the Eagles LY when an explosive offense could not score a single point. Now Tim Hiller and a tremendous corps of receivers have a chance to vent a lot of those frustrations.

Hiller is having a dynamic junior season, completing 68.8 percent of his passes for 2,517 yards, and a terrific ratio of 25 touchdown passes vs. only five interceptions. He can tax a tired defense with a supporting cast that includes Jamarko Simmons (66 catches for 702 yards and six touchdowns), Juan Nunez (44-492-4), Schneider Julien (39-491-3) and Brandon Ledbetter (38-385-5). Simmons and Ledbetter have NFL futures ahead of them, with their talent helping to open lanes for the others, and even RB Brandon West has caught 27 passes for 215 yards and three touchdowns, in addition to his 686 and six scores overland. And the chemistry of this unit will only get better, with Simmons, Nunez and Julien all going over 100 receiving yards in the last outing against Central Michigan, the first time in the history of the program that has happened. They bring far too many weapons for a gassed defense to stop, and the freshness and revenge motives break this wide open.

 

[5dollars]

PICK: Wyoming
Your pick will be graded at: -4.5 WSEX
EXPERT: David Malinsky
TITLE: Three for the Money - NCAA
REASON FOR PICK: 6* #332 WYOMING over SAN DIEGO STATE

We have only managed a split of the two 6* plays that we have had in action against Chuck Long and his depleted Aztecs in recent weeks, but Saturday’s non-cover with Colorado State was one that did not have to happen. As expected, the Rams wore down that awful defense to the tune of 38 points and 511 yards, but S.D.S. was able to hit a pair of home runs in the second half – a kickoff return for a TD and a 72-yard TD run – that enabled the Aztecs to stay inside the spread. The upside, of course, is that we are left with the value to go to the window once again, in a matchup that has so much more to the home team than the oddsmakers are projecting.

We can start with the basics – despite the notion of two struggling teams going head-to-head here, there is a major gap between them. They have played three common opponents, and the numbers speak loudly, with Wyoming winning those comparisons by 31 points and 617 yards. The problem for Joe Glenn and his Cowboys is that they have had to literally played their Mountain West schedule from the top down, already facing the elite of the conference, before now getting a chance to face San Diego State, U.N.L.V. and Colorado State, all teams that they are capable of beating. And it was not just a quality issue against the league elite, but also one of matchups as well. Because the passing game is so limited the Cowboys must run to be successful, and there are some rock-solid defensive fronts at the top of the Mountain West. The Aztecs are at the other end of the spectrum, rating dead last in the nation against the run.

That ground game has a chance to completely dominate this matchup against a depth-shy defensive front that we can count on to wear down at the Laramie altitude (7,165 feet), and they bring much more to the table than the markets will perceive. In having a week off prior to facing T.C.U. on Saturday they installed an “Outlaw” offensive package, which features a short shotgun snap and a lot of motion. And while not many will pay attention to a one-sided loss, a lot of good things happened in those schemes. RB Devin Moore ran for 114 yards against a defense that had not allowed any team to gain more than 71 in a game this season, and there were a couple of bounces that kept the full production of the attack from showing – a fumbled snap and a botched play that was to have been a RB pass lost a combined 45 yards. The Cowboys are also showing a lot of feistiness up front on the other side of the ball. In their last two games they have held Utah and T.C.U. to 233 rushing yards at an impressive 2.8 per attempt, and note that there were no flukes built in to those numbers. On Saturday T.C.U. had 39 running plays, with none gaining more than 13 yards.

If Wyoming can play this well in the trenches, why have things gone so sour? The passing game has simply been that bad, and it has helped to contribute to a -21 in turnover differential, by far the worst in the nation, when opposing defenses have forced them to the air. That does not happen this week, as their running attack controls this flow from the start, and eventually breaks the game wide open against a feeble opponent that has been beaten by a combined 111-14 in their only two conference road trips, and will bring no confidence to the table.

(ADDED NOTE: Although Wyoming QB Karsteen Sween is going to be held out of practice until later in the week his status is not crucial to our play - Chris Stutzriem has had plenty of time working with the first-team offense in practice in recent weeks, and is currently running #1 on the depth chart, while #2 Dax Crum has played more minutes than Sween.)

 

[5dollars]

PICK: Arkansas St.
Your pick will be graded at: 23 WSEX
EXPERT: David Malinsky
TITLE: Three for the Money - NCAA
REASON FOR PICK: 4* #393 ARKANSAS STATE over ALABAMA

There are not many coaches that we have had a better run with through the years playing both On and Against that Nick Saban, and this one brings us another prime opportunity. Our best success with Saban has come in competitively priced games (like the tickets cashed vs. Clemson and Tennessee already this season), when his outstanding preparation skills can out-maneuver the opposing coaches. And the best anti-situations have been when he is just looking to take care of business and move on. That is what we have this week.

Saban is 1-5 ATS since coming to Alabama as a double-figure favorite. It is a pattern that makes a lot of sense for a guy that worked at the NFL level, where the focus is strictly on getting wins, and not margins, and the SEC right now is about as close to the NFL as any college conference we have ever charted. There are no easy opportunities, and having played five straight conference games, and with a revenge showdown at L.S.U. immediately on deck, there is nothing calling for him to be concerned with anything more than just getting a win on the scoreboard, and keeping his players as fresh as possible for the challenges yet ahead.

Our key here is that the play is not all anti-Alabama. Arkansas State gets two weeks to prepare for what will be recognized as a special opportunity for the program, and there will not be all that much intimidation – under Steve Roberts the Red Wolves have played on the SEC road at Tennessee, Auburn, L.S.U. and Mississippi, in addition to non-conference trips to Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma State and Missouri. And Roberts has some individual talents that can compete at this level. In QB Corey Leonard he has a savvy veteran that despite only being a junior will be making his 27th start, and has only thrown three interceptions this season. The RB tandem of Reggie Arnold, on his way to his third straight 1,000-yard season, and Derek Lawson have each gone for over 500 yards already, and on defense they have a force in Alex Carrington, who is tied for 1st in the nation in tackles for losses, and 3rd in sacks. They can make enough plays to hang around this one for a long time, and stay comfortably under this generous spread.

 

[LLXC13]

D Malinsky also has:
NCAAF
4* S. Carolina -5

NFL
4* Phily -6.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

North Coast Sports

Power Play Gow....ole' Miss -6
Early Bird Pow...byu -14
Comp Under Dog Pow...utep +2
Big Dog Pow....unlv +14'
#2 Economy Club Play....uab +8'
Pac 10 Pow....stanford -30
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Wunderdog

<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Game: Iowa at Illinois (Saturday 11/01 3:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: Iowa +2.5 (-105)

The Illini have not been nearly as potent as they were last year and as the schedule toughens, the flaws have been shining through. They have managed just two wins in their last five games, and those were to the weaker teams in the Big-10 in Indiana and Michigan. The problem is they can't stop teams with a good running game, which is exactly what Iowa brings to the table. Illinois is allowing 152 rushing yards per game and Iowa is pounding the ball for 155 per game. This is simply a bad matchup for Illinois. The Illini have yet to hold any opponent to less than 17 points on the season, while Iowa has been spectacular on defense allowing 11.5 ppg on the season. The Hawkeyes, who have won two straight and covered four of five, have had two weeks to prepare for this one. Meanwhile, this will be the Illini's sixth straight game, and the lack of depth is taking its toll. I like teams that play defense and can run the ball on the road. Makes the Hawkeyes a live dog here.
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Scott Ferrall

Free College Football Plays

KENT +6.5 from Bowling Green--Kent actually averages more points and is 15th in country in rushing

CENTRAL MICHIGAN +2.5 from Indiana--The Chips score more and are 19th in NCAA in passing. They are better nationally in every category

VIRGINIA -1.5 to Miami--The Cavs are 4-1 at home and have been playing great lately, including big win at Geo tech in OT last Saturday

AIR FORCE -8.5 to Army--The Falcons just produce more on the ground and score 12 more pts per game on average than the Cadets. AF is 4-0 on the road this season

PURDUE -2.5 to Michigan--they both suck, but the Boilers are 2-3 at home and the Wolverines are 0-2 on the road. Purdue wins their first conference game

OL MISS -6 to Auburn--The Rebels are better in everything than Auburn-points per game, rushing, passing, total yards, etc
11/2/2008

 

[JLaHawg]

Scott Ferrall Paid - unverified

Picked these off his radio show - unverified and not sure what numbers he got. He just mentions them quickly sometimes.

UConn
Florida
TCU
AZ St
ND
Tamu
Louisville
Wash St