Gold Medal Club NCAFF Selections 27/10/2012
#128 Illinois -2
#149 Texas -19
#155 NC.State +7.5
#194 Arkansas -6
#217 Troy -7
GL
#128 Illinois -2
#149 Texas -19
#155 NC.State +7.5
#194 Arkansas -6
#217 Troy -7
GL
NCAA Football Trends & Angles - Week 9
October 25, 2012
It was a mixed bag for our NCAA Football Trends & Angles for Week 8 as all qualifying plays went just 5-5 ATS on an individual game basis, and that was with the only angle to have a winning week going a perfect 3-0 ATS.
We look for better things in Week 9 leading off with a fresh angle pointing only to certain home underdogs. That should come as no big surprise to those of you that have followed us in the past, as the vast majority of our angles will be contrarian in nature, with many of them will point you to live underdogs and live 'unders'.
All of our season-long trends this season go back to 2005, as we feel that gives us a large enough sampling without going back too far to games that may pre-date certain changes in the game that may make using older games obsolete.
So here are our NCAA Football Trends & Angles for Week 9, with all records being for the last seven full seasons since 2005 plus the first eight weeks of this season.
Play against any division road favorite coming off of a straight up loss (81-56-4, 59.1% ATS)
Road favorites are obviously considered to be better teams than their opponents, but those coming off of a loss may not be in the best of form and may be overvalued by bettors who almost automatically expect these teams to bounce back strong. Unfortunately, that has simply not been the case a high majority of the time on the road.
Qualifier: Auburn +15½ vs. Texas A&M.
Play against any conference home favorite that was an underdog in each of its last three games.
(119-77-1, 60.7% ATS) This is an oldie but goodie that we have used in one form or another in every sport that we do. Teams that have been underdogs in their last three games in a row are oftentimes not very good football teams, and when these clubs are suddenly cast in the favored role, they have usually wilted under the pressure of now being expected to win. This angle was a perfect 3-0 in Week 8.
Qualifiers: Hawaii +7 at Colorado State, Baylor +2½ at Iowa State and California +1 at Utah.
Bet on any division road underdog coming off of a straight up loss by 20 points or more (80-55-2, 59.3% ATS)
This angle is similar to one we use in professional sports. Now on the surface, one may not expect this to work as well in college with the talent disparity between teams being so much greater, but keep in mind that even losing teams are more familiar with division foes than any other team on the schedule, making it easier to improve from the previous week, plus oddsmakers are able to pad the spreads on these teams when they are road underdogs as they receive such minimal action. This angle split 1-1 in Week 8. Qualifiers: Iowa +6 and Tennessee +14.
Bet against any conference home favorite coming off of 2 home games (105-77-7, 57.7% ATS)
The winning percentage of this angle may not be as big as some of our others, but it has still made a very large profit due to the nice volume. Some may think that playing a third straight home game is an advantage, and while that may be true on the field, it has not been at the betting windows as books are aware that these teams have an advantage and bettors like to bet on them, so they are able to pad these lines. Also, if the third straight home game is a conference game, the home team is usually facing a team that is familiar with them. This angle lost its only play in Week 8.
Qualifiers: Akron +6½ at Central Michigan and Kentucky +13½ at Missouri.
Play on any road team coming off of four or more straight home games (57-35-2, 62.0% ATS)
Not many angles get more contrarian than this one, as conventional wisdom would suggest that teams that have been home for a long time would struggle when they finally hit the road. The thing is though that like all general theories like that, the books are ahead of the players, and they have shaded the lines so much in this situation knowing that most people will back the home team that it is the road teams that have practically served as ATM machines since 2005. This angle went just 1-2 in Week 8.
Qualifier: Notre Dame +10.
Play on any divisional road underdog coming off of a road loss (92-62-1, 59.7% ATS)
This one is also very similar to an NFL angle that we often referenced, as books have been over-adjusting against teams playing their second straight road game, especially coming off of a loss and when the second game is against a divisional opponent that teams are very familiar with. This angle lost its only play in Week 8.
Qualifier: Indiana +2.
October 25, 2012
It was a mixed bag for our NCAA Football Trends & Angles for Week 8 as all qualifying plays went just 5-5 ATS on an individual game basis, and that was with the only angle to have a winning week going a perfect 3-0 ATS.
We look for better things in Week 9 leading off with a fresh angle pointing only to certain home underdogs. That should come as no big surprise to those of you that have followed us in the past, as the vast majority of our angles will be contrarian in nature, with many of them will point you to live underdogs and live 'unders'.
All of our season-long trends this season go back to 2005, as we feel that gives us a large enough sampling without going back too far to games that may pre-date certain changes in the game that may make using older games obsolete.
So here are our NCAA Football Trends & Angles for Week 9, with all records being for the last seven full seasons since 2005 plus the first eight weeks of this season.
Play against any division road favorite coming off of a straight up loss (81-56-4, 59.1% ATS)
Road favorites are obviously considered to be better teams than their opponents, but those coming off of a loss may not be in the best of form and may be overvalued by bettors who almost automatically expect these teams to bounce back strong. Unfortunately, that has simply not been the case a high majority of the time on the road.
Qualifier: Auburn +15½ vs. Texas A&M.
Play against any conference home favorite that was an underdog in each of its last three games.
(119-77-1, 60.7% ATS) This is an oldie but goodie that we have used in one form or another in every sport that we do. Teams that have been underdogs in their last three games in a row are oftentimes not very good football teams, and when these clubs are suddenly cast in the favored role, they have usually wilted under the pressure of now being expected to win. This angle was a perfect 3-0 in Week 8.
Qualifiers: Hawaii +7 at Colorado State, Baylor +2½ at Iowa State and California +1 at Utah.
Bet on any division road underdog coming off of a straight up loss by 20 points or more (80-55-2, 59.3% ATS)
This angle is similar to one we use in professional sports. Now on the surface, one may not expect this to work as well in college with the talent disparity between teams being so much greater, but keep in mind that even losing teams are more familiar with division foes than any other team on the schedule, making it easier to improve from the previous week, plus oddsmakers are able to pad the spreads on these teams when they are road underdogs as they receive such minimal action. This angle split 1-1 in Week 8. Qualifiers: Iowa +6 and Tennessee +14.
Bet against any conference home favorite coming off of 2 home games (105-77-7, 57.7% ATS)
The winning percentage of this angle may not be as big as some of our others, but it has still made a very large profit due to the nice volume. Some may think that playing a third straight home game is an advantage, and while that may be true on the field, it has not been at the betting windows as books are aware that these teams have an advantage and bettors like to bet on them, so they are able to pad these lines. Also, if the third straight home game is a conference game, the home team is usually facing a team that is familiar with them. This angle lost its only play in Week 8.
Qualifiers: Akron +6½ at Central Michigan and Kentucky +13½ at Missouri.
Play on any road team coming off of four or more straight home games (57-35-2, 62.0% ATS)
Not many angles get more contrarian than this one, as conventional wisdom would suggest that teams that have been home for a long time would struggle when they finally hit the road. The thing is though that like all general theories like that, the books are ahead of the players, and they have shaded the lines so much in this situation knowing that most people will back the home team that it is the road teams that have practically served as ATM machines since 2005. This angle went just 1-2 in Week 8.
Qualifier: Notre Dame +10.
Play on any divisional road underdog coming off of a road loss (92-62-1, 59.7% ATS)
This one is also very similar to an NFL angle that we often referenced, as books have been over-adjusting against teams playing their second straight road game, especially coming off of a loss and when the second game is against a divisional opponent that teams are very familiar with. This angle lost its only play in Week 8.
Qualifier: Indiana +2.
Cajun Sports NCAA Football
System of the Week
Dogged Perfection
The college football season continues to roll on and the BCS comes under fire after just the second week of their rankings. Will we ever have a playoff?
Last week our College Football System of the Week won easily as we called for a play on Marshall Thundering Herd over the Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles and they delivered winning 59 to 24 as a 4-point road underdog.
This week our research has uncovered a powerful system that involves conference road underdogs coming off a home victory over a non-conference foe. In this particular situation, we are playing against the road underdog after winning at home while giving up a ton of points.
System: In games 2-11, play AGAINST a conference road underdog off a non-conference home SU win allowing 36+ points vs. an opponent not off a SU loss scoring 30+ points.
We have to go all the way back to September 2006 for the last active date for our system. That game featured a North Carolina Tar Heels team coming off a big victory over a non-conference foe and then facing the Clemson Tigers. Our system said to play AGAINST the UNC Tar Heels +16.5 points versus the Clemson Tigers and the system was right as Clemson destroyed UNC 52 to 7.
With that win, the system now has a record of 12-0 straight up and against the spread winning straight up by an average of 24.2 points per game while the spread victory has averaged covering by 12.2 points per game over that span.
This week our system is active and with all the system parameters met, the Cajun Sports NCAA Football System of the Week qualifies a play AGAINST Eastern Michigan in their game versus Bowling Green on Saturday.
This week we will Play ON the Bowling Green Falcons.
System of the Week
Dogged Perfection
The college football season continues to roll on and the BCS comes under fire after just the second week of their rankings. Will we ever have a playoff?
Last week our College Football System of the Week won easily as we called for a play on Marshall Thundering Herd over the Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles and they delivered winning 59 to 24 as a 4-point road underdog.
This week our research has uncovered a powerful system that involves conference road underdogs coming off a home victory over a non-conference foe. In this particular situation, we are playing against the road underdog after winning at home while giving up a ton of points.
System: In games 2-11, play AGAINST a conference road underdog off a non-conference home SU win allowing 36+ points vs. an opponent not off a SU loss scoring 30+ points.
We have to go all the way back to September 2006 for the last active date for our system. That game featured a North Carolina Tar Heels team coming off a big victory over a non-conference foe and then facing the Clemson Tigers. Our system said to play AGAINST the UNC Tar Heels +16.5 points versus the Clemson Tigers and the system was right as Clemson destroyed UNC 52 to 7.
With that win, the system now has a record of 12-0 straight up and against the spread winning straight up by an average of 24.2 points per game while the spread victory has averaged covering by 12.2 points per game over that span.
This week our system is active and with all the system parameters met, the Cajun Sports NCAA Football System of the Week qualifies a play AGAINST Eastern Michigan in their game versus Bowling Green on Saturday.
This week we will Play ON the Bowling Green Falcons.
Six Perfect NCAAF Teams That Only a Bettor Could Love
by Jon Campbell
There are only six teams left in college football with perfect records, as far as bettor are concerned and only one of them ranks in the Top 25 - barely. Here they are, along with a quickly analysis of why they're perfect.
Perfect ATS (against the spread) team:
Utah State Aggies – 7-0-1 ATS (6-2 straight up)
UP NEXT: at Texas San Antonio
There ‘s a famous creamery on Utah State’s campus known as "Aggie Ice Cream" but it’s the Aggies football team that’s the sweetest thing a bettor ever did see. The Aggies are the only remaining team in the nation with an undefeated ATS record after Western Kentucky failed to cover last week.
Their defense is one of the stingiest in the nation (seventh in points against per game) and USU has do-everything running back Kerwynn Williams on offense. Utah State has covered four times as a dog and it doesn't mind being a big fave, as the Deseret News accurately captured this week. “Good teams don't humor bad teams; they treat them like something that got lodged in the drain.”
Perfect ATS bet-against team:
Virginia Cavaliers – 0-7-1 ATS (2-6 straight up)
UP NEXT: Bye
The Cavs are one of those teams that drives a bettor crazy. For four consecutive games, they’ve out-gained the opposition in yards, but lost. They also started the year with two decent wins – over Richmond and Penn State. Unfortunately, they love to shoot themselves in the foot. The Cavs have the worst turnover margin in the country and last week was the first game in which they didn’t juggle two quarterbacks all day.
Perfect ‘OVER’ teams:
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs – 7-0 over/under record
UP NEXT: New Mexico State
No secrets here. This is the kind of team over bettors lie awake dreaming about. The Bulldogs have the top scoring offense in the country with 56 points per game and the second-worst overall defense with over 500 yards against per game. The fewest points they’ve seen in a game is 66 and they’ve combined for more than 98 in three outings. Super freshman running back Kenneth Dixon leads the nation with 16 touchdowns and has helped La. Tech to 5-1-1 ATS record.
Tennessee Volunteers – 6-0 over/under record
UP NEXT: at South Carolina
Defenses aren’t supposed to be this bad. Not in Knoxville anyhow, and panic buttons are being pushed. After the Vols allowed at least 37 points in their first four conference games, a story surfaced this week that head coach Derek Dooley offered to resign last year if the school paid him his $5 million buyout. So things are a bit of a mess in Rocky Top. In the Vols’ defense, those four conference foes they lost to are a combined 27-1 this season.
Baylor Bears – 5-0 over/under record
UP NEXT: at Iowa State
If Baylor doesn’t start getting some stops, it is going to start calling it a ham and Baylor cheese sandwich. Baddum-ching! But seriously folks, this is the worst scoring and total defense in the country statistically, mainly because it doesn’t have much talent according to the Star-Telegram. The sad part for the Bears is they haven’t missed a beat on offense without RGIII. Senior QB Nick Florence has led this team to be the top passing offense in the nation and No. 3 scoring squad.
Perfect 'UNDER' bet this season
Bowling Green Falcons – 0-7 over/under record
UP NEXT: Eastern Michigan
Bowling Green leads just about every major defensive category in the MAC, which has also helped the team cover four straight games. For the Falcons, it’s the culmination of a couple of rough years of seeing inexperienced players find their way on the defensive side. Defensive tackle Chris Jones leads the unit and ranks second in the nation with nine sacks this season.
by Jon Campbell
There are only six teams left in college football with perfect records, as far as bettor are concerned and only one of them ranks in the Top 25 - barely. Here they are, along with a quickly analysis of why they're perfect.
Perfect ATS (against the spread) team:
Utah State Aggies – 7-0-1 ATS (6-2 straight up)
UP NEXT: at Texas San Antonio
There ‘s a famous creamery on Utah State’s campus known as "Aggie Ice Cream" but it’s the Aggies football team that’s the sweetest thing a bettor ever did see. The Aggies are the only remaining team in the nation with an undefeated ATS record after Western Kentucky failed to cover last week.
Their defense is one of the stingiest in the nation (seventh in points against per game) and USU has do-everything running back Kerwynn Williams on offense. Utah State has covered four times as a dog and it doesn't mind being a big fave, as the Deseret News accurately captured this week. “Good teams don't humor bad teams; they treat them like something that got lodged in the drain.”
Perfect ATS bet-against team:
Virginia Cavaliers – 0-7-1 ATS (2-6 straight up)
UP NEXT: Bye
The Cavs are one of those teams that drives a bettor crazy. For four consecutive games, they’ve out-gained the opposition in yards, but lost. They also started the year with two decent wins – over Richmond and Penn State. Unfortunately, they love to shoot themselves in the foot. The Cavs have the worst turnover margin in the country and last week was the first game in which they didn’t juggle two quarterbacks all day.
Perfect ‘OVER’ teams:
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs – 7-0 over/under record
UP NEXT: New Mexico State
No secrets here. This is the kind of team over bettors lie awake dreaming about. The Bulldogs have the top scoring offense in the country with 56 points per game and the second-worst overall defense with over 500 yards against per game. The fewest points they’ve seen in a game is 66 and they’ve combined for more than 98 in three outings. Super freshman running back Kenneth Dixon leads the nation with 16 touchdowns and has helped La. Tech to 5-1-1 ATS record.
Tennessee Volunteers – 6-0 over/under record
UP NEXT: at South Carolina
Defenses aren’t supposed to be this bad. Not in Knoxville anyhow, and panic buttons are being pushed. After the Vols allowed at least 37 points in their first four conference games, a story surfaced this week that head coach Derek Dooley offered to resign last year if the school paid him his $5 million buyout. So things are a bit of a mess in Rocky Top. In the Vols’ defense, those four conference foes they lost to are a combined 27-1 this season.
Baylor Bears – 5-0 over/under record
UP NEXT: at Iowa State
If Baylor doesn’t start getting some stops, it is going to start calling it a ham and Baylor cheese sandwich. Baddum-ching! But seriously folks, this is the worst scoring and total defense in the country statistically, mainly because it doesn’t have much talent according to the Star-Telegram. The sad part for the Bears is they haven’t missed a beat on offense without RGIII. Senior QB Nick Florence has led this team to be the top passing offense in the nation and No. 3 scoring squad.
Perfect 'UNDER' bet this season
Bowling Green Falcons – 0-7 over/under record
UP NEXT: Eastern Michigan
Bowling Green leads just about every major defensive category in the MAC, which has also helped the team cover four straight games. For the Falcons, it’s the culmination of a couple of rough years of seeing inexperienced players find their way on the defensive side. Defensive tackle Chris Jones leads the unit and ranks second in the nation with nine sacks this season.
WUNDERDOG
Game: Mississippi State at Alabama (Saturday 10/27 8:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: Alabama -24 (-110)
The Mississippi State Bulldogs are 7-0 coming into this game with Alabama. They are going to be in for more than they bargained for here against a Crimson Tide team that is the bona fide front-runner for another Championship. The Bulldogs may be unbeaten now, but that is more a product of a very easy schedule, and I would not be a bit surprised if they lose their next three games. They played a cupcake out-of-conference schedule, and their three in-conference wins came at the hands of three teams that are 0-14 in league play so far. All 7-0 teams are not created equal, and the oddsmakers are quick to point that out to the greatest extent they can, but not nearly enough. It has done enough to sway the public. How can a 7-0 team be over a three-TD dog? The public has taken the bait with over six out of ten bets coming in on the underdogs here. Mississippi State, averaging 36.7 poitns per game, may look like a good offensive team, but they are very average having outgained opposing defenses by a razor thin margin from what would be expected of an average team. Defensively they are average against a below average group of running offenses they have faced. Perhaps their biggest asset on either side of the ball is that they have defended the pass better than the teams' offensive averages they have faced. Clearly they have not seen an offense that passes at 2.3 yards per attempt better than the defenses they face, nor a running game that is well over a yard better. A.J. McCarron has been perfect in throwing for 16 TD's with zero INTs. He finds the open man with myriad of receivers (6) that have caught multiple TD passes. Bama has too much on both sides of the ball and they are on a mission this season. Tide rolls, so play on Alabama.
Game: Mississippi State at Alabama (Saturday 10/27 8:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: Alabama -24 (-110)
The Mississippi State Bulldogs are 7-0 coming into this game with Alabama. They are going to be in for more than they bargained for here against a Crimson Tide team that is the bona fide front-runner for another Championship. The Bulldogs may be unbeaten now, but that is more a product of a very easy schedule, and I would not be a bit surprised if they lose their next three games. They played a cupcake out-of-conference schedule, and their three in-conference wins came at the hands of three teams that are 0-14 in league play so far. All 7-0 teams are not created equal, and the oddsmakers are quick to point that out to the greatest extent they can, but not nearly enough. It has done enough to sway the public. How can a 7-0 team be over a three-TD dog? The public has taken the bait with over six out of ten bets coming in on the underdogs here. Mississippi State, averaging 36.7 poitns per game, may look like a good offensive team, but they are very average having outgained opposing defenses by a razor thin margin from what would be expected of an average team. Defensively they are average against a below average group of running offenses they have faced. Perhaps their biggest asset on either side of the ball is that they have defended the pass better than the teams' offensive averages they have faced. Clearly they have not seen an offense that passes at 2.3 yards per attempt better than the defenses they face, nor a running game that is well over a yard better. A.J. McCarron has been perfect in throwing for 16 TD's with zero INTs. He finds the open man with myriad of receivers (6) that have caught multiple TD passes. Bama has too much on both sides of the ball and they are on a mission this season. Tide rolls, so play on Alabama.
College Football Top 25 Betting Cheat Sheet: Week 9
If you're looking to get some action down but only have a few minutes to handicap, let our Top-25 cheat sheet help you out. We grab the best quick-hitting betting info on each of the Top 25 matchups with odds available in Week 9 of the season:
(13) Clemson at Wake Forest (11.5, 58.5)
Cincinnati at (14) Louisville (-3, 52)
(24) Texas at Kansas (21, 60.5)
Texas has won nine straight versus Kansas including the last seven meetings by an average of 36 points. However, any dreams the Longhorns had of winning the Big 12 have been crushed by a defense that ranks 107th against the run (215.7) and overall (472.1), as well as 102nd in scoring (35.0). Texas, which lost star DE Jackson Jeffcoat (torn pectoral) for the season two weeks ago, has allowed an average of 580 yards over its last four contests. The Longhorns have played over the total in their last five games overall.
Tennessee at (16) South Carolina (-13.5, 57)
After nearly picking off LSU the week before, the Gamecocks crashed hard against the Gators, turning the ball over four times and surrendering four touchdown passes. Tennessee-South Carolina games have been decided by an average of 9.17 points since 2000, the closest matchup in the SEC. The Volunteers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games in South Carolina.
Colorado at (2) Oregon (-46, 67.5)
The Ducks are coming off an impressive 43-21 victory last Thursday at Arizona State, which was allowing only 14.2 points entering the contest. Oregon has scored 30 points in 20 straight games - the longest streak in the FBS - and has put up 42 or more points in 10 straight games. The Buffaloes lost at USC 50-6 last week and allow 42.6 points per game - second-most in the nation, and have been outscored 143-37 in their last three games.
(8) USC at Arizona (6.5, 65.5)
Even though No. 8 USC will be aiming for its sixth straight win against Arizona when it travels to Tucson for a Pac-12 Conference game, the margin of each victory has been seven points or less. Arizona’s 114th-ranked defense will be up against one of the most prolific passing attacks in the country. USC quarterback Matt Barkley took over the conference’s all-time career mark for touchdown passes last week, and receivers Robert Woods and Marqise Lee are No. 1 and 2 in the Pac-12 in touchdown receptions this season. The underdog is 7-0 ATS in their last seven meetings.
Duke at (10) FSU (-27, 56.5)
Florida State has no choice but to push forward without leading rusher Chris Thompson against ACC rival Duke on Saturday in Tallahassee. Thompson was lost for the season with a torn ACL in last week's 33-20 victory over Miami, leaving the Seminoles without the ACC's third leading rusher. The Blue Devils got back on track with a 33-30 decision over North Carolina last week after having a four-game win streak snapped at Virginia Tech the week before, but have never beaten the Seminoles in 17 meetings. Florida State is 1-4 ATS in its last five games overall.
(18) Boise State at Wyoming (16.5, 51.5)
Boise State seeks its seventh consecutive victory when it visits a Wyoming team spiraling downward. Not only have the Cowboys lost three consecutive games but coach Dave Christensen was suspended for Saturday’s game and fined $50,000 for verbally accosting Air Force coach Troy Calhoun after Wyoming’s loss on Oct. 13. Assistant head coach Pete Kaligis will serve as interim coach against the No. 18 Broncos. The road team is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
(3) Florida at (11) Georgia (7, 47.5)
The Bulldogs are the only team in the SEC East with a chance to steal the Gators’ spot in the SEC title game but will need to win out to make it happen. If Florida gets by Georgia, it will have clinched a spot in the big game thanks to head-to-head wins over South Carolina and the Bulldogs. The Gators are fourth nationally in scoring defense, surrendering just 12.1 points, and held the Gamecocks to 36 rushing yards last Saturday. The favorite is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
Kent State at (15) Rutgers (-13.5, 46)
Rutgers can improve to 8-0 for the fourth time in the program’s 143 years, but high-scoring Kent State has won five straight and is off to its best start since 1973. Kent State RB Dri Archer, who leads the nation in all-purpose yards per game, will present a big challenge to the Rutgers defense. The Golden Flashes are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.
(23) Ohio at Miami (Ohio) (7, 60.5)
Ohio, which is 7-0 for the first time in 44 years, has been pushed in its past three games, winning by a combined total of 16 points. Both teams were off last week, which was a good thing for the RedHawks. Miami lost its final two games before their week off by a combined 89-26 margin. The Bobcats are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games following a bye week.
Michigan State at (25) Wisconsin (-6, 41.5)
The Badgers have won three straight, including last Saturday’s 38-13 victory against Minnesota when tailbacks Montee Ball and James White both rushed for more than 100 yards. Michigan State’s impressive defense will look to slow down Wisconsin, which has averaged 34.2 points in its last five games. The last six games in the series have been decided by 10 points or less.
(17) Texas Tech at (4) Kansas State (-7, 60.5)
Kansas State has turned in two of the most impressive performances of the season, squeezing out a victory at then-No. 5 Oklahoma last month before visiting West Virginia last week and annihilating the 15th-ranked Mountaineers, 55-14. Senior QB Collin Klein seized control of the Heisman Trophy race by accounting for all seven touchdowns to help Kansas State move up to No. 3 in the latest BCS poll. The Red Raiders survived a three-overtime shootout to outlast Texas Christian 56-53 last week. Quarterback Seth Doege has thrown for 817 yards and 13 touchdowns versus one pick in the last two games. The schools have played over the total in their last four meetings.
Washington State at (19) Stanford (-24.5, 50.5)
Stanford will play consecutive games against the worst teams in the Pac-12 beginning Saturday when it hosts Washington State. The No. 19 Cardinal is fourth in the country and leads the Pac-12 with 77.0 rushing yards allowed per game, while the Cougars have the second-worst rushing offense in the country (40.6). Stanford is 5-0-1 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a losing record.
(21) Texas A&M at Auburn (14.5, 52.5)
After committing five turnovers in a heartbreaking loss to LSU, No. 21 Texas A&M brings its explosive offense to Auburn to face the reeling Tigers. Freshman QB Johnny Manziel (14 passing touchdowns, 10 rushing TDs) should bounce back after being forced to throw 56 times and getting picked off three times by LSU. Auburn is off to its worst start in 60 years and ranks 121st nationally in scoring (15.7). Texas A&M is one of only three teams that ranks in the top 20 nationally in rushing, passing, total offense and points. The Aggies are 0-5 ATS in their last five October games.
(5) Notre Dame at (7) Oklahoma (-11, 48)
Oklahoma has bounced back with a vengeance from its lone loss to Kansas State, rolling up 156 points in lopsided victories over Texas, Texas Tech and Kansas, but it will be facing a defense that ranks second nationally in points allowed at 9.4 per game. Four of the Fighting Irish's wins have been by seven points or fewer, but the offense should get a boost with the return of starting QB Everett Golson, who missed the BYU game due to a concussion suffered in an overtime win over Stanford on Oct. 13. The under is 5-1-1 in Notre Dame’s last seven road games and has cashed in Notre Dame's last six games overall.
(20) Michigan at Nebraska (-2.5, 58)
Nebraska is playing at home for the first time since Sept. 29 and is expected to be without star RB Rex Burkhead, who aggravated a left knee injury in the Northwestern game. The Wolverines have allowed 13 or fewer points in each of their last five games. Michigan is 10th nationally in total defense (286.0 yards per game) and fourth in defending the pass (143.0). The Cornhuskers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning record.
(12) Mississippi State at (1) Alabama (-24, 46)
The Crimson Tide has rolled through its first seven games, winning each by at least 19 points and by an average of 32.7 points. Alabama has taken the past four meetings - by a 117-27 margin - and nine of the past 11. Mississippi State has scored 27 or more points in each game this season, the first time in school history the Bulldogs have topped 25 points in seven straight games. The Crimson Tide is just 1-5 ATS in its last six home games.
(9) Oregon State at Washington (4, 47.5)
Oregon State, ranked seventh in the latest BCS list, suddenly is being mentioned in the national title race, if only as an afterthought. The Beavs have to run the table, of course. The surprising Beavers are off to a 6-0 start and starting QB Sean Mannion is expected to return to the lineup Saturday after undergoing a surgical procedure on his knee Tuesday. The Beavers are 8-0 ATS in their last eight meetings.
If you're looking to get some action down but only have a few minutes to handicap, let our Top-25 cheat sheet help you out. We grab the best quick-hitting betting info on each of the Top 25 matchups with odds available in Week 9 of the season:
(13) Clemson at Wake Forest (11.5, 58.5)
Cincinnati at (14) Louisville (-3, 52)
(24) Texas at Kansas (21, 60.5)
Texas has won nine straight versus Kansas including the last seven meetings by an average of 36 points. However, any dreams the Longhorns had of winning the Big 12 have been crushed by a defense that ranks 107th against the run (215.7) and overall (472.1), as well as 102nd in scoring (35.0). Texas, which lost star DE Jackson Jeffcoat (torn pectoral) for the season two weeks ago, has allowed an average of 580 yards over its last four contests. The Longhorns have played over the total in their last five games overall.
Tennessee at (16) South Carolina (-13.5, 57)
After nearly picking off LSU the week before, the Gamecocks crashed hard against the Gators, turning the ball over four times and surrendering four touchdown passes. Tennessee-South Carolina games have been decided by an average of 9.17 points since 2000, the closest matchup in the SEC. The Volunteers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games in South Carolina.
Colorado at (2) Oregon (-46, 67.5)
The Ducks are coming off an impressive 43-21 victory last Thursday at Arizona State, which was allowing only 14.2 points entering the contest. Oregon has scored 30 points in 20 straight games - the longest streak in the FBS - and has put up 42 or more points in 10 straight games. The Buffaloes lost at USC 50-6 last week and allow 42.6 points per game - second-most in the nation, and have been outscored 143-37 in their last three games.
(8) USC at Arizona (6.5, 65.5)
Even though No. 8 USC will be aiming for its sixth straight win against Arizona when it travels to Tucson for a Pac-12 Conference game, the margin of each victory has been seven points or less. Arizona’s 114th-ranked defense will be up against one of the most prolific passing attacks in the country. USC quarterback Matt Barkley took over the conference’s all-time career mark for touchdown passes last week, and receivers Robert Woods and Marqise Lee are No. 1 and 2 in the Pac-12 in touchdown receptions this season. The underdog is 7-0 ATS in their last seven meetings.
Duke at (10) FSU (-27, 56.5)
Florida State has no choice but to push forward without leading rusher Chris Thompson against ACC rival Duke on Saturday in Tallahassee. Thompson was lost for the season with a torn ACL in last week's 33-20 victory over Miami, leaving the Seminoles without the ACC's third leading rusher. The Blue Devils got back on track with a 33-30 decision over North Carolina last week after having a four-game win streak snapped at Virginia Tech the week before, but have never beaten the Seminoles in 17 meetings. Florida State is 1-4 ATS in its last five games overall.
(18) Boise State at Wyoming (16.5, 51.5)
Boise State seeks its seventh consecutive victory when it visits a Wyoming team spiraling downward. Not only have the Cowboys lost three consecutive games but coach Dave Christensen was suspended for Saturday’s game and fined $50,000 for verbally accosting Air Force coach Troy Calhoun after Wyoming’s loss on Oct. 13. Assistant head coach Pete Kaligis will serve as interim coach against the No. 18 Broncos. The road team is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
(3) Florida at (11) Georgia (7, 47.5)
The Bulldogs are the only team in the SEC East with a chance to steal the Gators’ spot in the SEC title game but will need to win out to make it happen. If Florida gets by Georgia, it will have clinched a spot in the big game thanks to head-to-head wins over South Carolina and the Bulldogs. The Gators are fourth nationally in scoring defense, surrendering just 12.1 points, and held the Gamecocks to 36 rushing yards last Saturday. The favorite is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
Kent State at (15) Rutgers (-13.5, 46)
Rutgers can improve to 8-0 for the fourth time in the program’s 143 years, but high-scoring Kent State has won five straight and is off to its best start since 1973. Kent State RB Dri Archer, who leads the nation in all-purpose yards per game, will present a big challenge to the Rutgers defense. The Golden Flashes are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.
(23) Ohio at Miami (Ohio) (7, 60.5)
Ohio, which is 7-0 for the first time in 44 years, has been pushed in its past three games, winning by a combined total of 16 points. Both teams were off last week, which was a good thing for the RedHawks. Miami lost its final two games before their week off by a combined 89-26 margin. The Bobcats are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games following a bye week.
Michigan State at (25) Wisconsin (-6, 41.5)
The Badgers have won three straight, including last Saturday’s 38-13 victory against Minnesota when tailbacks Montee Ball and James White both rushed for more than 100 yards. Michigan State’s impressive defense will look to slow down Wisconsin, which has averaged 34.2 points in its last five games. The last six games in the series have been decided by 10 points or less.
(17) Texas Tech at (4) Kansas State (-7, 60.5)
Kansas State has turned in two of the most impressive performances of the season, squeezing out a victory at then-No. 5 Oklahoma last month before visiting West Virginia last week and annihilating the 15th-ranked Mountaineers, 55-14. Senior QB Collin Klein seized control of the Heisman Trophy race by accounting for all seven touchdowns to help Kansas State move up to No. 3 in the latest BCS poll. The Red Raiders survived a three-overtime shootout to outlast Texas Christian 56-53 last week. Quarterback Seth Doege has thrown for 817 yards and 13 touchdowns versus one pick in the last two games. The schools have played over the total in their last four meetings.
Washington State at (19) Stanford (-24.5, 50.5)
Stanford will play consecutive games against the worst teams in the Pac-12 beginning Saturday when it hosts Washington State. The No. 19 Cardinal is fourth in the country and leads the Pac-12 with 77.0 rushing yards allowed per game, while the Cougars have the second-worst rushing offense in the country (40.6). Stanford is 5-0-1 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a losing record.
(21) Texas A&M at Auburn (14.5, 52.5)
After committing five turnovers in a heartbreaking loss to LSU, No. 21 Texas A&M brings its explosive offense to Auburn to face the reeling Tigers. Freshman QB Johnny Manziel (14 passing touchdowns, 10 rushing TDs) should bounce back after being forced to throw 56 times and getting picked off three times by LSU. Auburn is off to its worst start in 60 years and ranks 121st nationally in scoring (15.7). Texas A&M is one of only three teams that ranks in the top 20 nationally in rushing, passing, total offense and points. The Aggies are 0-5 ATS in their last five October games.
(5) Notre Dame at (7) Oklahoma (-11, 48)
Oklahoma has bounced back with a vengeance from its lone loss to Kansas State, rolling up 156 points in lopsided victories over Texas, Texas Tech and Kansas, but it will be facing a defense that ranks second nationally in points allowed at 9.4 per game. Four of the Fighting Irish's wins have been by seven points or fewer, but the offense should get a boost with the return of starting QB Everett Golson, who missed the BYU game due to a concussion suffered in an overtime win over Stanford on Oct. 13. The under is 5-1-1 in Notre Dame’s last seven road games and has cashed in Notre Dame's last six games overall.
(20) Michigan at Nebraska (-2.5, 58)
Nebraska is playing at home for the first time since Sept. 29 and is expected to be without star RB Rex Burkhead, who aggravated a left knee injury in the Northwestern game. The Wolverines have allowed 13 or fewer points in each of their last five games. Michigan is 10th nationally in total defense (286.0 yards per game) and fourth in defending the pass (143.0). The Cornhuskers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning record.
(12) Mississippi State at (1) Alabama (-24, 46)
The Crimson Tide has rolled through its first seven games, winning each by at least 19 points and by an average of 32.7 points. Alabama has taken the past four meetings - by a 117-27 margin - and nine of the past 11. Mississippi State has scored 27 or more points in each game this season, the first time in school history the Bulldogs have topped 25 points in seven straight games. The Crimson Tide is just 1-5 ATS in its last six home games.
(9) Oregon State at Washington (4, 47.5)
Oregon State, ranked seventh in the latest BCS list, suddenly is being mentioned in the national title race, if only as an afterthought. The Beavs have to run the table, of course. The surprising Beavers are off to a 6-0 start and starting QB Sean Mannion is expected to return to the lineup Saturday after undergoing a surgical procedure on his knee Tuesday. The Beavers are 8-0 ATS in their last eight meetings.
POWER PLAYS
3* #122 Bowling Green
4* #124 Western Michigan
4* #126 Pittsburgh
4* #135 Maryland
1* #139 Utah St.
3* #147 California
4* #152 Wisconsin
3* #156 North Carolina
3* #158 Wyoming
4.5* #163 Florida
4* #170 Arizona
3* #176 Stanford
4* #179 Oregon St.
2* #186 Oklahoma St.
4* #190 Buffalo
2* #191 Tennessee
4.5* #198 Oklahoma
3* #202 SMU
4.5* 212 UL. Monroe
3* #122 Bowling Green
4* #124 Western Michigan
4* #126 Pittsburgh
4* #135 Maryland
1* #139 Utah St.
3* #147 California
4* #152 Wisconsin
3* #156 North Carolina
3* #158 Wyoming
4.5* #163 Florida
4* #170 Arizona
3* #176 Stanford
4* #179 Oregon St.
2* #186 Oklahoma St.
4* #190 Buffalo
2* #191 Tennessee
4.5* #198 Oklahoma
3* #202 SMU
4.5* 212 UL. Monroe
CFB 3* CONF KNOCKOUT OF THE YEAR! - Scott Spreitzer
Scott Spreitzer | CFB Side Sat, 10/27/12 - 3:30 PM
triple-dime bet 157 Boise St. -16.5 (-110) 5Dimes vs 158 Wyoming
Analysis:
I'm laying the points with Boise State. Thanks! GL! - Scott Spreitzer.
Scott Spreitzer | CFB Side Sat, 10/27/12 - 3:30 PM
triple-dime bet 157 Boise St. -16.5 (-110) 5Dimes vs 158 Wyoming
Analysis:
I'm laying the points with Boise State. Thanks! GL! - Scott Spreitzer.
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