Service Plays Saturday 1/4/14

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[h=1]NCAA Football Game Picks[/h]

SATURDAY, JANUARY 4 Time Posted: 8:00 p.m. EST (12/16)

Game 265-266: Vanderbilt vs. Houston (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Vanderbilt 92.717; Houston 94.638 Dunkel Line: Houston by 2; 59 Vegas Line: Vanderbilt by 3; 54 Dunkel Pick: Houston (+3); Over

OTHER MAJOR GAMES: Time Posted: 8:00 p.m. EST (12/25)

Game 109-110: Towson vs. North Dakota State (2:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Towson 74.985; North Dakota State 101.258 Dunkel Line: North Dakota State by 26 1/2 Vegas Line: North Dakota State by 13 1/2 Dunkel Pick: North Dakota State (-13 1/2)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Wildcard trends: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly
By MARC LAWRENCE

Don’t look now but the 2013 NFL season is in the rear view mirror and with it the start of the Wild Card playoff games starting this Saturday. Let’s take a look at some of the best, and worst, trends surrounding this weekend’s card.

The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

Here’s a brief capsule of the teams and noteworthy trends:

Kansas City at Indianapolis (-2.5, 46.5)
Good: Chiefs coach Andy Reid 3-0 ATS away non-division playoff dog
Bad: Reid 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS last five games vs. the Colts
Ugly: Colts 0-3 SU and ATS last three playoff games

New Orleans at Philadelphia (-2.5, 53)
Good: Saints QB Drew Brees is 4-2 SU and ATS career vs. Philadelphia
Bad: Saints 3-5 SU and 1-7 ATS away this season, averaged 17.8 PPG
Ugly: Saints 0-5 SU and ATS all-time away in NFL playoffs

San Diego at Cincinnati (-7, 47)
Good: Bengals 4-0 SU and ATS off a win in this series
Bad: Chargers 2-9 ATS vs. AFC North last five years
Ugly: Bengals 0-5 SU and ATS last five playoff games

San Francisco at Green Bay (48, +2.5)
Good: Jim Harbaugh is 3-0 SU and ATS vs. Green Bay
Bad: Mike McCarthy is 5-8 SU and ATS as a home dog
Ugly: Super Bowl losers are 0-5 SU and 0-4-1 ATS away Game One playoffs

Home Field Disadvantage

Home cooking used to be a solid handicapping edge during the playoffs. Not so anymore.

For the longest time backing home teams in the NFL postseason has been a solid-moneymaker, going 172-120-6 (55.1%) dating back to 1980.

Today, however, that would be a mistake as the success of home teams in the playoffs has dissolved quicker than Alka Seltzer in a cold glass of water on New Year’s morning.

A closer look finds home teams just 119-107-5 ATS (51.%) since the 1990 season and, even worse, 64-66-1 ATS (49.2%) since 2000. Thus, like the economy, NFL playoff hosts have fallen on hard times.

Division Downers

Wild card road teams have a difficult time after dueling a division opponent in their season ending finale, going 21-43-1 ATS – including 1-7 ATS the last two years.

Send these highwaymen out as dogs of more than 3 points and the task worsens as they are 4-33 SU and 9-28 ATS.

Not a good sign for the Chargers this week.

ATS Diabetes

Like kids in a candy store, NFL Wild Card teams playing off huge regular season wins tend to crash-and-burn in these playoff openers.

Teams off a SU underdog win are just 11-25 SU and 13-22-1 ATS, including 3-15 SU and 4-14 ATS if the Over/Under total in today’s game is set at more than 41 points.

So long 49ers.

In a similar vein, teams suffer from more than a sugar rush In opening round playoff games if they managed to they beat the spread by 10 or points, going just 9-19-1 ATS when on the road during this round.

The Chiefs and the Saints could be up against it this weekend.

Stat of the Week

The straight-up winner in NFL opening round playoff games is 104-11-3 ATS since 1980.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL line watch: Bolts bettors should wait to charge
By ART ARONSON

Each week during the pro football season, Covers Expert Art Aronson looks at the NFL odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.

Spread to bet now

New Orleans Saints (+2.5) at Philadelphia Eagles

What you see is what you get with the early number in this one. Philadelphia opened up as a 2.5-point favorite and, with pretty much even wagering, that’s likely to hold firm. So if you’re waiting for this one to tip a half point either way, you most likely are out of luck.

As to the game, the spread seems to be too thin by about a point - especially considering that the Saints have not played one game this season in cold weather, which is invading the Northeast this week.

Did you think on Halloween night that the Eagles had a ghost of a chance of going 7-1 on the back nine? Only a defensive letdown in Minnesota sits between Philly and an eight-game winning streak. Andy Reid might still be in town if he had had more confidence in Nick Foles and less in Michael Vick.

Spread to wait on

San Diego Chargers (+7) at Cincinnati Bengals

Say what you want about Andy Dalton, but the kid is seventh in the league in passing yards and the Bengals have put up nearly 27 points a game (more than Seattle, San Francisco and Indianapolis) this season.

Just about a month ago the Bengals headed west and picked up a nice 17-10 win over San Diego in a defensive battle that was primarily played out between the 40 yard lines.

There has been decent early money on Cincinnati, even with the substantial line, but if the money gets serious come close to game time, they might be forced to either throw another half point more on the number.

San Diego backers, who like the way the Chargers have played on the road this season (wins at Denver, Kansas City and Philadelphia give the Bolts some significant street cred), could then swarm.

Total to watch

Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts (46.5)

You can build a legitimate case for this one going Under based on the game that these teams played in Kansas City a little more than a week ago. The Colts’ defense put the hammer down on Kansas City’s offense, holding the Chiefs to just about 300 total yards.

But the Chiefs were crushed by turnovers in that game. Three fumbles were lost, and K.C. recovered three more of its own bobbles. Alex Smith also threw an interception.

All that won’t happen the second time around. The Chiefs should be fresh (most starters sat out the regular season finale) and figure to move the ball. Adjustments will be made and there should be some points scored in this one.

 

[SqueezetheJuice]

Nelly's Green Sheet:

Indy over KC by 7

Philly over NO by 4

 

[SqueezetheJuice]

Playbook:

Indy over KC by 6

Philly over NO by 7

 

[SqueezetheJuice]

PointWISE:

Indy 30 KC 23

Philly 33 NO 23

 

[SqueezetheJuice]

Goldsheet:

Indy 24
KC 17

NO 24
Philly 21

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Norm Hitzges

January 3-6, 2014
Last week: 13-13
Season: 224-199

NFL


Indy -1 1/2 KC
Philly -2 1/2 New Orleans
Philly New Orleans UNDER 53 1/2

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

EZWINNERS

5* 6 Point Teaser Chiefs +8.5 & Saints +8.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dave Cokin:

Compass Bowl: Houston +3

NFL:
Bengals -6.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Brady Kannon

Saints

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Nemo

# ship it

Houston -3

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Capping NFL rematches: What to keep, throw away this Wild Card Weekend

The NFL Wild Card Weekend features three rematches from the regular season, with the Chiefs taking on the Colts, the Chargers facing the Bengals, and the 49ers clashing with the Packers.

The playoffs are a completely different beast than the regular season but there are lessons learned from those previous meetings that can help NFL bettors cash in during the postseason rematches. We break down those first encounters and tell you what you should keep and throw away from those games:

Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts (Pick, 46)

Original meeting: 23-7 Colts (Week 16)

What to keep: The Kansas City Chiefs were solid on defense against the Colts despite allowing Andrew Luck to pass fo4 241 yards. Kansas City allowed just 23 points in a game in which they were saddled with terrible field position thanks to a string of turnovers. Expect similarly solid defense from the Chiefs after resting the majority of their starters during Week 17.

What to throw away: It’s unlikely that the Chiefs will turn the ball over four times again this weekend. Kansas City ranked first in the AFC in turnover margin, giving away the ball only 18 times while forcing a total of 36 turnovers – 21 INTs and 15 fumbles – on the year. The Chiefs boast a +1.1 turnover margin per game – second best in the NFL.

San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers (2.5, 46.5)

Original meeting: 34-28 49ers (Week 1)

What to keep: Packers RB Eddie Lacy and 49ers RB Frank Gore each found the end zone in Week 1, posting near identical numbers. Lacy amassed 41 yards on 14 carries and added 31 yards receiving off a catch-and-run, while Gore totaled 44 yards on 21 touches while reeling in two passes for 21 yards. With wind expected to plague the passing game, each team could give the other a healthy dose of these two downhill runners.

What to throw away: Aaron Rodgers and Colin Kaepernick combined to pass for 745 yards on 48-for-76 passing in Week 1, each connecting for three TDs through the air. Rodgers is working his way back into game shape after missing extended time with a collarbone injury and Kaepernick hasn’t been able to repeat those Week 1 numbers, plagued by sporadic performances all season. The forecast in Lambeau Field is calling for chilly temperatures and winds getting up around 20 mph, so another air show from these two QBs is unlikely.

San Diego Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals (-7, 47)

Previous meeting: 17-10 Bengals (Week 13)

What to keep: The Bengals held the Chargers offense to just 10 points and limited San Diego QB Philip Rivers to only 252 yards passing while forcing a costly interception on Dec. 1. Cincinnati was able to sack Rivers twice and keep things close after Bengals QB Andy Dalton struggled in the first half, giving Cincy a shot at winning the game in the final 30 minutes. The Bengals ranked fifth against the pass this season, allowing only 209 passing yards against per game, and ranked fourth in the AFC with 43 sacks.

What to throw away: Home-field advantage will not be had by the Chargers this weekend as they go from temperate San Diego to a chilly Paul Brown Stadium, where Cincinnati has yet to lose. The Chargers were .500 away from home this season, finishing 4-4 (4-3-1 ATS). If the Chargers want to keep their improbable winter run going forward, they will have to end the Bengals’ undefeated home record.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Prop Shop: Wild Card Weekend
By SEAN MURPHY

It's playoff time in the NFL with Wild Card Weekend getting underway Saturday. Why not spice things up with some player prop bets? Covers Expert Sean Murphy opens the doors of the NFL Prop Shop and gives you his favorite player prop picks for this weekend's action:

Most passing yards

Alex Smith (Kansas City Chiefs) vs. Andrew Luck (Indianapolis Colts)

I'm going to take a shot with Alex Smith at an underdog price in this matchup, for a couple of reasons.

First, I expect the Chiefs to be playing from behind for the better part of this game, forcing Smith to take to the air. Second, Kansas City has to realize that its passing game is an area where it will need to improve after Smith made only 16 completions for 153 yards in a 23-7 home loss to the Colts two weeks ago. The Colts defense has been vulnerable against the pass at times this season, giving up seven yards per pass play.

Even though QB Andrew Luck is the engine, the Colts still strive to be a run-oriented team on the offensive side of the ball. Luck will need to pick his spots against an opportunistic Chiefs secondary on Saturday.

Take: Smith

Philip Rivers (San Diego Chargers) vs. Andy Dalton (Cincinnati Bengals)

This play sets up similarly to our play on Alex Smith. There's a good chance the Chargers will be playing from behind for much of Sunday's game in Cincinnati, but that won't phase Philip Rivers, who brings a 'gunslinger' mentality to the table.

The Bengals defense has been terrific against the pass this season, but that's largely due to the fact that most teams have elected to run on them instead. San Diego didn't show much caution in its previous matchup with Cincinnati, airing it out 37 times in a 17-10 loss. Rivers threw for 252 yards compared to Andy Dalton's 190 on that day, and I'm expecting a similar ledger at the end of this rematch.

Take: Rivers

Most rushing yards

Frank Gore (San Francisco 49ers) vs. Eddie Lacy (Green Bay Packers)

As much as the Packers would like to lean heavily on their rookie running back, with Aaron Rodgers back under center, they'll undoubtedly fall in love with the passing game once again this week.

Lacy did run the ball 21 times last Sunday in Chicago, but only had moderate success, gaining just 66 yards. Veteran James Starks was actually the more explosive back on that day.

Frank Gore was a non-factor for the 49ers in last week's win over the Cardinals, but he was a workhorse in the previous two weeks, and I expect to see him resume that role against the Packers. Last week's poor performance doesn't take away from the fact that Gore has been running well, gaining at least 86 yards in three of his last four games. He'll find room to run against an up-and-down Packers defense on Sunday.

Take: Gore

Most pass receptions

Keenan Allen (San Diego Chargers) vs. A.J. Green (Cincinnati Bengals)

Since Week 4, Keenan Allen has emerged as Philip Rivers' favorite target, and even though he's a rookie, I expect him to be counted upon heavily in Sunday's showdown with the Bengals.

Note that Allen was a force against Cincinnati back in Week 13, hauling in eight catches for 106 yards.

A.J. Green has quietly emerged into a superstar, but that leaves hiim overvalued in terms of prop matchups more often than not. This is such a case as we're getting a healthy underdog return with Allen in what I feel is nothing more than a toss-up. In terms of yardage Green may win the battle, but as far as receptions go, I'll take my chances with Allen.

Take: Allen

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Chiefs at Colts: What bettors need to know

Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts (Pick'em, 46)

Andrew Luck and Indianapolis Colts closed the season with three consecutive lopsided victories, including a 23-7 romp in Kansas City, and now have the luxury of home-field advantage when they host the Chiefs on Saturday in the AFC wild-card round. The Colts allowed a staggering 82 points in road losses to Arizona and Cincinnati before sinking the Chiefs, part of a three-game run that has seen them outscore the opposition 78-20. Indianapolis has dominated the series, winning five of the last six.

Unlike the Colts, Kansas City wobbled down the stretch, losing five of its last seven games after opening the season with nine straight wins and leading the league in points allowed. The Chiefs, seeking their first postseason victory since Joe Montana was under center in 1994, committed an uncharacteristic four turnovers in the loss to the Colts on Dec. 22. "They've got the upper hand on us right now because in their minds they think they can beat us," Kansas City linebacker Derrick Johnson said after last month's loss.

TV: 4:35 p.m. ET, NBC.

LINE: The Colts opened at -2.5, but have been bet all the way to a pick'em. The total has moved down slightly from 46.5 to 46.

WEATHER: N/A.

ABOUT THE CHIEFS (11-5, 9-7 ATS): There remains uncertainty whether leading wide receiver Dwayne Bowe will be cleared to play after suffering a concussion, but that won't alter the game plan for quarterback Alex Smith and Kansas City. The Chiefs will feature a heavy dose of running back Jamaal Charles, who led the AFC with 1,287 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns while hauling in a team-high 70 receptions and seven scoring passes. "We called him public enemy No. 1," Colts coach Chuck Pagano said. "If he doesn't touch the ball 30 times, I'd be shocked." After resting most of the starters in last week's loss at San Diego, the Chiefs are expecting the return of linebacker Justin Houston, who tied for the team sack lead (11) with Tamba Hali despite missing the last five games with a dislocated elbow.

ABOUT THE COLTS (11-5, 10-6 ATS): Indianapolis' offense went sideways when Luck lost his favorite target, Reggie Wayne, to a season-ending knee injury in Week 7. After a stretch of uneven performances, Luck has established a chemistry with young wideouts T.Y. Hilton, Griff Whalen and Da'Rick Rogers, throwing for eight touchdowns and one interception over the final four weeks. Hilton has emerged as a go-to receiver in his second season, hauling in 24 passes during the three-game win streak to finish with 82 on the season. Donald Brown has helped ease the sting of the trade for running back Trent Richardson by averaging 5.3 yards per carry and scoring six rushing TDs - two against the Chiefs. Robert Mathis, who had a league-high 19.5 sacks, heads a defense that yielded two TDs in the final three games

TRENDS:

* Under is 5-1 in the last six meetings.
* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Indianapolis.
* Chiefs are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 meetings.
* Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Smith had 11 TD passes versus one interception on the road as the Chiefs tied Miami (2008) and Indianapolis (2012) for the most wins by a team with two or fewer victories the previous season.

2. Luck's 13 home wins in his first two seasons ties him with Atlanta's Matt Ryan for the second most in the Super Bowl era.

3. Kansas City has averaged only 9.4 points in its last five losses to Indianapolis.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Saints at Eagles: What bettors need to know

New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5, 53.5)

The New Orleans Saints have dominated opponents at home this season, but the road has been a different story for Drew Brees and company. The sixth-seeded Saints take aim at the first road playoff win in franchise history Saturday night when they visit the third-seeded Philadelphia Eagles, who enter this matchup as one of the hottest teams in the postseason. There likely will be no shortage of points, as the Eagles (second) and Saints (fourth) are among the league leaders in total offense while featuring some of the NFL's top skill-position players - Brees and Saints tight end Jimmy Graham, and the Eagles' duo of quarterback Nick Foles and running back LeSean McCoy, just to name a few.

New Orleans had lost three of four before routing Tampa Bay 42-17 last week - a win that improved the Saints to 8-0 at home compared to their 3-5 record on the road. The Eagles, meanwhile, had lost 10 straight home games before winning their final four contests at Lincoln Financial Field, but first-year coach Chip Kelly knows that while the Saints present a much tougher challenge, the focus remains the same. "You can't be like, ‘Oh my God, now we are in the playoffs and we've got to do this,'" said Kelly. "I think that's really not our mindset. It's, we have got a really, really good Saints team coming in here and we have to prepare the heck out of our guys and play a big game on Saturday night."

TV: 8:10 p.m. ET, NBC.

LINE: The Eagles have held steady as 2.5-point faves. The total opened at 54.5 and has moved down to 53.5.

WEATHER: It should be clear with temperatures in the mid 20s.

ABOUT THE SAINTS (11-5, 8-8 ATS): Brees, who was second in the NFL in passing yards (5,162) and touchdowns (39), believes that New Orleans is capable of winning three straight on the road in the playoffs after losing its final three road games of the regular season. "Absolutely," Brees said after the win against Tampa Bay. "We are good enough to do whatever we set out to do. I think today was a great step in the right direction to get ready for this playoff run." The Saints' defense is much improved from years past, as they allowed the second-fewest passing yards in the league (194.1) and surrendered 20 points or fewer 12 times, although they were the only NFL team without a defensive touchdown in 2013.

ABOUT THE EAGLES (10-6, 8-8 ATS): Philadelphia rebounded from a 3-5 start to win seven of its last eight games, thanks in large part to the steady play of Foles (27 TDs, two INTs, NFL-best 119.2 passer rating) and McCoy, who led the league with a franchise-record 1,607 rushing yards. Kelly's offense had 98 plays of at least 20 yards this season - the most since the Elias Sports Bureau began tracking the stat in 1995 - with DeSean Jackson (career highs of 82 catches for 1,332 yards) leading the way through the air. The NFC East champions must find some way to slow Graham, who paced the NFL with 16 touchdown catches, particularly given their history of struggling with opposing tight ends, including the Cowboys' Jason Witten (12 catches, 135 yards last week).

TRENDS:

* Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings.
* Saints are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games.
* Eagles are 1-5 ATS in their last six games in January.
* Under is 6-0-1 in Eagles last seven playoff home games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Only one team in the NFL (Seattle) created more turnovers than Philadelphia this season. The Eagles forced 31 turnovers - 19 interceptions and 12 fumbles - including three turnovers in their season-ending, do-or-die win at Dallas.

2. The game-time temperature could be in the 20's, but Saints running back Pierre Thomas isn't concerned. “I’m not worried about the cold,” said Thomas, who led the team with 549 rushing yards. “Actually, out there playing, I’m sweating so much my body’s overheating, I kind of need that cool air to cool me down.”

3. Since the NFL expanded to a 12-team playoff format in 1990, a No. 6 seed has made it to the Super Bowl only twice - the 2005 Pittsburgh Steelers and the 2010 Green Bay Packers, both of whom won it all.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL injury report: Four injuries undervalued by oddsmakers
By MONIQUE VÁG

With playoff football kicking off this weekend, a few teams bitten by the injury bug are struggling to get their star players healthy to compete. Some players are coming off a week's rest while others return from injury hoping to make a big splash. Here are some notable injuries that may have an impact on the scoreboard.

AFC Wild Card

Eddie Royal, WR, San Diego Chargers (Toe, Questionable)

The Chargers are fourth in passing yards with an average of 270.5 per game. Royal leads the Chargers in touchdowns with eight and has 47 receptions on the year. Of the Chargers’ 41 total touchdowns, over two thirds have come through the air. San Diego travels to Cincinnati facing a Bengals team ranked fifth against the pass, allowing an average of only 209 yards. The Bengals lead the league in defensive touchdowns (7) and have 20 interceptions. The Chargers need all hands on deck to defeat the Bengals on the road.

San Diego is a 6.5-point road underdog against the Bengals. The total is 46.5.

Tamba Hali, OLB, Kansas City Chiefs (Knee, Questionable)

The Chiefs defense is allowing an average of only 19.1 points per game. Part of that success has been linebacker Hali, who has 46 combined tackles, 11 sacks and leads the team in forced fumbles (4). Fellow LB Justin Houston, who has 41 tackles and 11 sacks, is expected to return from an elbow injury. Only two quarterbacks have taken more hits than Andrew Luck this season and the status of the Chiefs’ top pass rushers will play a huge factor.

The Chiefs are 1.5-point road underdogs against the Colts. The total is 46.

NFC Wild Card

Pierre Thomas, RB, New Orleans Saints (Chest, Questionable)

The Saints are ranked 25th in rushing yards and 23rd in rushing touchdowns with 10. Despite the Saints not showing much success on the ground, Thomas leads them in attempts, yards, and is second in rushing touchdowns (Drew Brees leads the team). The Saints have been successful converting third-down attempts (44%) and are 47 percent when going for it on fourth down. New Orleans may find themselves in trouble in short-yardage situations if Thomas is forced to watch from the sidelines.

The Saints are 2.5-point road underdogs against Philadelphia. The total is 54.

Clay Matthews, OLB, Green Bay Packers (Thumb, Out)

Through 11 games played, Matthews has 41 and is Green Bay's leading pass rusher with 7.5 sacks. Matthews is tied for the team lead in forced fumbles (3) with LB Nick Perry, who also did not participate in practice and is questionable for Sunday's game against the 49ers. The Packers host a 49ers team that has found success rushing the ball, averaging 137.6 yards per game – third in the NFL. While Matthews is undisputedly a key to the Packers defense, Green Bay is 4-1 in his absence.

The Packers are 2.5-point home underdogs against the 49ers. The total is 46.5.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tale of the Tape: Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts

The Kansas City Chiefs look to extend an amazing bounceback season as they visit the Indianapolis Colts in an AFC wild-card showdown Saturday afternoon.

The Chiefs, who won just two games a season ago, got off to a 9-0 start before running out of steam down the stretch. They'll face a Colts team that rolled to the NFC South championship and has caught fire at the right time with three straight victories to end the regular season.

Here's the breakdown in our betting Tale of the Tape:

Offense

The Kansas City pass attack was predictably conservative behind quarterback Alex Smith, ranking 24th in yards (3,340) but with 24 touchdowns against just eight interceptions - tied with San Francisco for the fewest in the league. The Chiefs' offensive line surrendered 41 sacks totaling 221 yards. The rushing game was far more potent, with superstar Jamaal Charles pacing an attack that ranked 10th in yards (2,056) and racked up 17 touchdowns.

Colts quarterback Andrew Luck stagnated in his second NFL season, a development due at least in some part to a season-ending leg injury to All-Pro receiver Reggie Wayne. Luck threw for 550 yards fewer than he had in his sensational rookie campaign, though he did match his 2012 touchdown total (23) while throwing just nine interceptions - nine fewer than the previous year. The Colts rush attack finished 21st in yards per game (108.9) with 15 touchdowns.

Edge: Indianapolis

Defense

The Chiefs rode the league's stoutest defense to a season-opening nine-game winning streak, but the unit had its share of struggles in the second half of the season. Kansas City allowed the seventh-most passing yards in the league (3,962) while surrendering 25 touchdowns, but it did snag 21 interceptions - good for third in the NFL. The Chiefs were 22nd in rushing yards allowed (1,923) but was strong in the end zone, giving up just nine TDs on the ground.

The Colts' pass defense performed well for most of the season, allowing the 11th-fewest yards (3,711) with 21 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. Indianapolis has compiled 42 sacks for 248 yards, led by standout defensive end Robert Mathis (league-best 19 1/2 sacks). The Colts have struggled with the run defense, getting torched for just over 2,000 yards on the ground - the seventh-highest tally in the league - on 4 1/2 yards per carry with 14 scores against.

Edge: Kansas City

Special Teams

The Chiefs' return team was the best in football during the regular season, leading the NFL in average kickoff return (29.9) and sixth in punt return average (11.8) with four total return touchdowns. Kansas City allowed 24.4 yards per kickoff return - the 11th-highest tally in the league - but limited opponents to just 6.5 yards per punt return. Kicker Ryan Succop had a rough season, connecting on just 22 of 28 field-goal attempts - including 1-of-4 from 50 yards or more.

The Colts enjoyed a productive season in the return game, ranking 14th in the NFL in both kickoff return average (23.5) and punt return average (9.9). Indianapolis wasn't as effective when it came to special teams defense, allowing the sixth-highest kickoff return average (25.2) while ranking second-last in punt-return yards allowed per attempt (13.7). Kicker Adam Vinatieri had a terrific season, converting 35 of 40 field-goal opportunities on the season.

Edge: Kansas City

Notable Quotable

"I'm ready to go. Games like this ... big-time players make big-time plays, and there are games I mostly show up in ... everything on the line and great preparations all week. It's win or go home." - Chiefs WR Dwayne Bowe

"It was a lot of guys who are older and that are in the position of being a leader to speak up. Actually, anybody that wanted to say anything, the floor was open. We got good results from it." - Mathis on the Colts' player-only meeting after a Week 12 loss to Arizona; the Colts went 4-1 the rest of the way

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tale of the Tape: New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles

There should be no shortage of offensive fireworks Saturday night when the New Orleans Saints visit the Philadelphia Eagles in an NFC wild-card playoff showdown.

The Saints roll into the postseason as the sixth seed despite posting an impressive 11-5 record fueled by Drew Brees' passing prowess and a stingy defense. That unit will be put to the test against an Eagles offensive attack that ranked among the league elite.

Here's the breakdown in our betting tale of the tape:

Offense

With Brees still operating like one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time, the Saints once again boasted a top-5 passing offense. New Orleans ranked second in the NFL at 307.4 passing yards per game, while racking up 39 touchdowns and throwing just 12 interceptions. The bloated passing numbers once again came at the expense of the rush attack, which finished 25th in the league in yards per game (92.1) on 3.8 yards per carry but did compile 10 touchdowns.

There were questions coming into the season about how Chip Kelly's offensive wizardry would carry over from college to the pros. Nobody is asking those questions anymore: Kelly oversaw an Eagles passing game that exploded under quarterback Nick Foles, racking up the ninth-most yards (4,110) with 32 TDs and just nine interceptions. The running game was even more impressive, leading the NFL in yards (2,566) behind rushing champion LeSean McCoy.

Edge: Philadelphia

Defense

The Saints haven't been known as a defensive juggernaut in recent years, but that changed in a big way this season. Only the Seattle Seahawks permitted more passing yards than New Orleans (3,105), which limited the opposition to 20 passing touchdowns while nabbing 12 interceptions and racking up 49 sacks. The Saints weren't nearly as effective in run defense, allowing 1,786 yards on 4.5 per carry, but gave up just 11 scores on the ground.

The effectiveness of the Philadelphia offense was negated somewhat by a truly porous pass defense. The Eagles surrendered the most passing yards in the NFL (4,636), allowing 25 touchdowns while racking up 19 interceptions and 34 sacks. Philadelphia had an easier time defending opposing running games, giving up the 10th-fewest yards on the ground (1,671 on 3.8 per carry) while limiting teams to 10 touchdowns and forcing a league-high 15 fumbles.

Edge: New Orleans

Special Teams

The Saints have averaged 23 yards per kickoff attempt - ranked 17th in the league - but have managed a paltry 6.1 yards on 32 punt returns, one of the worst rates in the NFL. That puts New Orleans behind in both categories, as it surrenders 25.2 yards per kickoff return and 7.5 yards per punt return. Veteran kicker Shayne Graham, taking over for the struggling Garrett Hartley, hasn't been busy over two weeks of action but has made both of his field-goal chances.

Philadelphia's return game has been one of the lone weak spots of the NFC East champions, averaging just 21.4 yards per kickoff return attempt and 6.6 yards per punt return try. The return defense has been even worse, allowing 23.6 yards per kickoff return, eight yards per punt return and three total touchdowns. Placekicker Alex Henery had an up-and-down regular season, making 23 of 28 attempts - including three from over 45 yards in the final three weeks.

Edge: New England

Notable Quotable

"Our running back situation is outstanding. Obviously we have a starter but when we put Bryce (Brown) and Chris (Polk) in there, they have done a really, really good job. They both can run the ball, they both can catch the ball well and they certainly both can pass protect." - Eagles offensive coordinator Pat Shumur

"You can't really look at the (pass defense) rankings and think you're going to have your way with them. Each game is different. They're playing at home. It'll be tough for us." - Saints WR Lance Moore