STATSYSTEMS SPORTS STAT/SHEETS, 1/18/14
NCAA COLLEGE BASKETBALL
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Saturday, 1/18/14 NCAACB Knowledge - Early Edition *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 NCAA College Basketball season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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•Situational Trends of The Day
-- SAINT LOUIS is 16-1 ATS (+14.9 Units) after 3 consecutive conference games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SAINT LOUIS 70.8, OPPONENT 57.9.
-- CINCINNATI is 10-0 UNDER (+10.0 Units) after 5 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CINCINNATI 71.5, OPPONENT 56.7.
-- ARKANSAS is 2-18 (-17.8 Units) against the 1rst half line in road games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ARKANSAS 27.5, OPPONENT 37.3.
-- FLORIDA ST is 22-2 UNDER (+19.8 Units) the 1rst half total after 3 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers since 1997.
The average score was FLORIDA ST 30.1, OPPONENT 30.9.
-- JOE SCOTT is 26-5 (+20.5 Units) against the 1rst half line in home games after 2 straight games giving up 9 or less offensive rebounds as the coach of DENVER.
The average score was SCOTT 32.7, OPPONENT 23.9.
•Matchup Trends of The Day
-- UTAH is 11-0 ATS (+11.0 Units) versus excellent teams - shooting >=45% with a defense of <=42% over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was UTAH 60.7, OPPONENT 61.1.
-- MISSOURI ST is 15-1 OVER (+13.9 Units) versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of <=42% over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MISSOURI ST 61.9, OPPONENT 70.1.
-- IUPU-FT WAYNE is 10-0 (+10.0 Units) against the 1rst half line versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game this season.
The average score was IUPU-FT WAYNE 38.3, OPPONENT 31.5.
-- E MICHIGAN is 17-2 UNDER (+14.8 Units) the 1rst half total versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was E MICHIGAN 22.9, OPPONENT 28.0.
-- WES MILLER is 0-12 ATS (-13.2 Units) versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game after 15+ games as the coach of UNC-GREENSBORO.
The average score was MILLER 64.5, OPPONENT 72.7.
•Situation Analysis of The Day
-- Play On - Road favorites of -165 to -500 versus the money line (ST JOSEPHS) - excellent shooting team (>=47.5%) against an average shooting team (42.5-45%), after a game where a team made 55% of their shots or better.
(84-9 since 1997.) (90.3%, +61.6 units. Rating = 5*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -255
The average score in these games was: Team 75, Opponent 66 (Average point differential = +8.9)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0, +2 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (14-1, +9 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (23-5, +9.2 units).
-- Play Against - Home teams as an underdog or pick (CAL DAVIS) - terrible defensive team - shooting pct defense of >=48% on the season against opponent after a game where a team made 20% of their 3 point shots or worse.
(50-16 since 1997.) (75.8%, +32.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (62-8)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 6.3
The average score in these games was: Team 74.2, Opponent 63.8 (Average point differential = +10.4)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 21 (30.9% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (12-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (23-3).
-- Play On - Underdogs of 2 to 3.5 points versus the first half line (FLORIDA ST) - good FT shooting team (69-73%) against an average FT shooting team (65-69%) after 15+ games, after 3 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 40% or less.
(31-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (83.8%, +24.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 3.3
The average first half score in these games was: Team 31, Opponent 30.2 (Average first half point differential = +0.8)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (18-5).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (55-31).
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Saturday's Early Top-25 Match-ups
#529 TENNESSEE @ #530 KENTUCKY
(TV: Noon EST, CBS - Line: Kentucky -8, Total: N/A) - No. 12 Kentucky will look to bounce back from an overtime stunner at Arkansas when it kicks off a three-game homestand with a visit from Tennessee on Saturday afternoon. Despite the loss in Fayetteville, Kentucky coach John Calipari said he was happy with the way his team repeatedly clawed back from deficits late. “I’m proud of my team that they didn’t quit, they kept playing,” Calipari told the Louisville Courier-Journal.
Tennessee has won five of six to surge back into the NCAA Tournament picture, but is searching for its first win at Rupp Arena since 2006. The Volunteers, though, say the hostile environment of Lexington is nothing but a motivator. “As a basketball player, these are the types of games you live for,” Jeronne Maymon told the Knoxville News-Sentinel.
•ABOUT TENNESSEE (11-5 SU, 8-6-0 ATS, 2-1 SEC): Jordan McRae has emerged as one of the SEC’s top scorers, leading Tennessee at 18.4 points per game and ranking tied for sixth in the league. Another strength for the Volunteers has been on the glass, where they rank behind only Kentucky in the SEC in rebounding margin. Saturday’s game pits the top two rebounders in the SEC against each other – with Tennessee’s Jarnell Stokes (9.6 per game) up against Kentucky phenom Julius Randle (11.1).
•ABOUT KENTUCKY (12-4 SU, 6-6-2 ATS, 2-1 SEC): On the strength of its front line, the Wildcats have dominated the paint for much of their season. It starts with Randle (16.9 points), but Willie Cauley-Stein has also taken major steps forward in his second year in Lexington. The 7-0 Olathe, Kan. native has racked up 7.6 rebounds per game, and has cracked double-figure scoring in three of Kentucky’s last five games.
•PREGAME NOTES: Kentucky is one of two South Eastern Conference teams averaging over 80 points per game.... Tennessee ranks third in the league in free-throw shooting at 70.2 percent.... The Volunteers have averaged 15.7 turnovers in three SEC games.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, TENNESSEE covered the spread 538 times, while KENTUCKY covered the spread 432 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, KENTUCKY won the game straight up 655 times, while TENNESSEE won 316 times. In 1000 simulated games, TENNESSEE covered the first half line 577 times, while KENTUCKY covered the first half line 423 times. *EDGE against first half line =TENNESSEE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--KENTUCKY is 18-16 against the spread versus TENNESSEE since 1997.
--KENTUCKY is 25-9 straight up against TENNESSEE since 1997.
--17 of 29 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--TENNESSEE is 19-15 versus the first half line when playing against KENTUCKY since 1997.
--15 of 30 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Volunteers are 4-9 ATS in the last 13 meetings.
--Volunteers are 1-7 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Kentucky.
--Under is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings.
--Under is 8-1 in the last 9 meetings in Kentucky.
--Home team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--TENN is 13-6 ATS in their last 19 road games.
--TENN is 15-7 ATS in their last 22 Sat. games.
--Under is 42-19-1 in TENN last 62 road games.
--UK is 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 Sat. games.
--UK is 7-17-1 ATS in their last 25 vs. Southeastern.
--Under is 7-3 in UK last 10 home games.
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#545 USC @ #546 COLORADO
(TV: 2:00 PM EST, Fox Sports 1 - Line: Colorado -11, Total: N/A) - Colorado is hoping for better results when it hosts USC on Saturday, its third game since losing leading scorer Spencer Dinwiddie to a season-ending knee injury. Dinwiddie went down in the first half of a 17-point loss at Washington last Sunday and the Buffaloes returned home to play their first full game without their injured star Thursday and lost by 13 to No. 25 UCLA. The Buffaloes were held under 60 points in both losses, something they avoided in the first 16 games this season.
The player who has inherited Dinwiddie’s spot in the starting lineup is freshman Jaron Hopkins, who was held to two points on 1-for-6 shooting against the Bruins and turned the ball over five times. Askia Booker will need to turn it up a notch as well and the junior guard already responded with a season-high 21 points against UCLA, which came on the heels of his 0-for-9 shooting performance against Washington. The Trojans are hungrier than ever for a victory and leading scorer Byron Wesley should be eager to bounce back from his eight-point performance in an 18-point loss Thursday night against Utah, just his second game in single digits this season.
•ABOUT USC (9-9 SU, 6-8-1 ATS, 0-4 Pac-12): Strahinja Gavrilovic played more than nine minutes just twice in the first 16 games and had not scored more than four points, but the 6-8 forward from Serbia gained attention by scoring 10 points in 19 minutes against top-ranked Arizona on Sunday. He was rewarded with 20 minutes against Utah and came back with nine points on an efficient 4-for-6 shooting. He could begin to eat away at the minutes of fellow Serb Nikola Jovanovic, who has been limited to single digits in the last four games after scoring at least 12 in the previous six.
•ABOUT COLORADO (14-4 SU, 9-8-0 ATS, 3-2 Pac-12): Josh Scott should be prepared for a good test against 7-2 center Omar Oraby of USC. Scott, a 6-10 sophomore, was the best big man in the UCLA game, finishing with 19 points, nine rebounds and three blocks, but the Bruins don’t have a true center like Oraby. Dustin Thomas is the best frontcourt player off the bench for the Buffaloes and the 6-7 freshman forward is another player who needs to step up in Dinwiddie’s absence.
•PREGAME NOTES: Colorado hasn’t lost three in a row in the same season since dropping four straight from Jan 18-29, 2011, when the Buffaloes were still members of the Big 12.... Dinwiddie, Booker and Colorado's fourth-leading scorer, Xavier Johnson, are all from the L.A. area.... USC freshman F Roschon Prince played a season-low six minutes against Utah after averaging 13.2 in the first 17 games.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, COLORADO covered the spread 585 times, while USC covered the spread 389 times. *EDGE against the spread =COLORADO. In 1000 simulated games, COLORADO won the game straight up 854 times, while USC won 129 times. In 1000 simulated games, COLORADO covered the first half line 500 times, while USC covered the first half line 500 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--COLORADO is 1-1 against the spread versus USC since 1997.
--COLORADO is 2-0 straight up against USC since 1997.
--1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--COLORADO is 2-0 versus the first half line when playing against USC since 1997.
--2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
•RECENT TRENDS
--USC is 8-20 ATS in their last 28 Sat. games.
--USC is 7-19-2 ATS in their last 28 road games.
--Under is 4-1 in USC last 5 Saturday games.
--COLO is 6-15 ATS in their last 21 Sat. games.
--COLO is 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. Pacific-12.
--Under is 37-17 in COLO last 54 vs. Pacific-12.
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#565 OKLAHOMA @ #566 BAYLOR
(TV: 2:00 PM EST, ESPN2 - Line: Baylor -6, Total: N/A) - It could be a high-scoring affair Saturday as visiting Oklahoma and No. 13 Baylor try to bounce back from losses earlier in the week. The Sooners lead the Big 12 with an average of 85.8 points and have all five starters averaging double figures while Baylor (78.6 points) has four players averaging double digits. Oklahoma also leads the conference with 9.8 3-pointers in league games while the Bears are second with 7.3 3s.
Oklahoma forward Ryan Spangler had a combined 37 points on 71.4 percent shooting and 29 rebounds in his last two games, recording his league-best seventh double-double. He will have a tough battle inside against Baylor big men Cory Jefferson and Isaiah Austin, who were held to a combined 12 points in Baylor's loss at Texas Tech on Wednesday. "We've got to find ways to get (Jefferson and Austin) the ball more," coach Scott Drew said in his post-game conference. "Texas Tech did a good job of being physical with them and not allowing them shots."
•ABOUT OKLAHOMA (13-4 SU, 7-7-1 ATS, 2-2 Big 12): Cameron Clark leads the Sooners with 17.3 points and Buddy Hield adds 16.5 points, although he's averaging 18.5 in league games. Spangler, who leads the Big 12 with 9.5 rebounds, has shot 50 percent from the floor or better in all 17 games. Jordan Woodard (11.4 points) and Isaiah Cousins (10.6) also average double figures, and the Sooners starters have combined for 95 of the team's 123 steals.
•ABOUT BAYLOR (13-3 SU, 4-6-0 ATS, 1-2 Big 12): Jefferson has six double-doubles and leads the Bears with 13.2 points and 8.4 rebounds. Kenny Chery adds 11.6 points and a 2.7 assist-to-turnover ratio while Austin gives the Bears, who are 9-0 at home, 10.3 points and a league-best 46 blocks. Taurean Prince has scored in double figures in four of his last five games and leads the Bears during that five-game stretch with 15.2 points on 60.5 percent shooting.
•PREGAME NOTES: Baylor has won 13 straight at the Ferrell Center, the second-longest streak in arena history.... The Bears have won three of the past four home games against Oklahoma, but the Sooners lead the series 39-10, including a 17-5 mark in Waco.... Spangler has nine games of at least 10 rebounds while the Sooners, as a team, had just seven such performances last year.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, OKLAHOMA covered the spread 556 times, while BAYLOR covered the spread 408 times. *EDGE against the spread =OKLAHOMA. In 1000 simulated games, BAYLOR won the game straight up 585 times, while OKLAHOMA won 387 times. In 1000 simulated games, OKLAHOMA covered the first half line 528 times, while BAYLOR covered the first half line 437 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--OKLAHOMA is 24-8 against the spread versus BAYLOR since 1997.
--OKLAHOMA is 28-5 straight up against BAYLOR since 1997.
--13 of 19 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--OKLAHOMA is 20-11 versus the first half line when playing against BAYLOR since 1997.
--11 of 17 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Sooners are 20-7-2 ATS in the last 29 meetings.
--Sooners are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Baylor.
--Over is 13-5 in the last 18 meetings.
--Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Baylor.
--Underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
--Road team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--OKLA is 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 Sat. games.
--Over is 20-6 in OKLA last 26 overall.
--Over is 8-2 in OKLA last 10 Sat. games.
--BAY is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games.
--BAY is 6-15 ATS in their last 21 Sat. games.
--Over is 12-4 in BAY last 16 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
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#567 N CAROLINA ST @ #568 DUKE
(TV: 2:00 PM EST, CBS - Line: Duke -13.5, Total: N/A) - Duke restored some of its luster with a win on Monday but is still only .500 in the Atlantic Coast Conference. The 20th-ranked Blue Devils will try to move past the even point when they host North Carolina State on Saturday. Duke squandered an 11-point lead against Virginia on Monday but came through down the stretch thanks to 21 points from Rasheed Sulaimon, who picked up some of the slack from freshman Jabari Parker.
Parker averaged 21.4 points in non-conference play but is putting up 10.5 against ACC foes, including eight on 3-of-11 shooting in the 69-65 win over Virginia. The forward will have his hands full at the defensive end on Saturday as part of the group assigned to Wolfpack forward T.J. Warren, who leads the ACC in scoring at 22.2 points. Warren put up 22 points at Wake Forest on Wednesday but fouled out with under three minutes left and had to watch as his team suffered a 70-69 loss.
•ABOUT NORTH CAROLINA STATE (11-6 SU, 6-7-1 ATS, 1-3 ACC): The Wolfpack did what Duke couldn’t by winning at Notre Dame on Jan. 7, but have since dropped two straight. NC State led Wake Forest by eight at the half but fell behind when Warren picked up his fourth foul midway through the second and could not stop a layup in the final seconds. Part of the problem for the Wolfpack is the lack of scoring options behind Warren, as only Anthony Barber (11.5) and Desmond Lee (10.2) join him in double figures.
•ABOUT DUKE (13-4 SU, 9-8-0 ATS, 2-2 ACC): The Blue Devils changed things up on the defensive end against Virginia and went to a pressure system for 40 minutes, using 10 players in a five-for-five substitution pattern. “It was strange but it worked out well,” Sulaimon told reporters. “I knew (coach Mike Krzyzewski) was going to do something like that because he wanted us to pressure the ball for the entire 40 minutes, so he wanted us to have fresh legs.” Sulaimon, who was a healthy scratch against Michigan last month after a string of sub-par efforts, has scored in double figures in two of the last three games.
•PREGAME NOTES: Duke has won 26 straight at home.... The Wolfpack rank last in the ACC in 3-point percentage at 29.2 while Duke shoots a league-leading 41.1 percent from beyond the arc.... Blue Devils F Amile Jefferson recorded a career-high 15 rebounds on Monday and has recorded double-digit rebounds in four of the last eight contests.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, NC STATE covered the spread 539 times, while DUKE covered the spread 461 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, DUKE won the game straight up 820 times, while NC STATE won 159 times. In 1000 simulated games, NC STATE covered the first half line 581 times, while DUKE covered the first half line 378 times. *EDGE against first half line =NC STATE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--DUKE is 16-15 against the spread versus NC STATE since 1997.
--DUKE is 27-5 straight up against NC STATE since 1997.
--18 of 27 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--DUKE is 16-15 versus the first half line when playing against NC STATE since 1997.
--18 of 27 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Over is 15-5-1 in the last 21 meetings.
--Over is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings in Duke.
•RECENT TRENDS
--NCST is 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 Sat. games.
--Under is 9-3 in NCST last 12 vs. Atlantic Coast.
--Under is 6-1 in NCST last 7 games following a S.U. loss.
--DUKE is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 home games.
--Under is 9-4 in DUKE last 13 home games.
--Over is 16-7 in DUKE last 23 Sat. games.
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#581 IOWA ST @ #582 TEXAS
(TV: 4:00 PM EST, Big 12 Network, ESPN3 - Line: Iowa State -1.5, Total: N/A) - No. 10 Iowa State will try to stop a losing streak when it visits Texas on Saturday, but the Longhorns will present another big challenge for the Cyclones. Iowa State has allowed 55 second-chance points in its back-to-back losses and been outrebounded in all four Big 12 Conference games. "We were pretty good (at rebounding) in the non-conference portion of the schedule," Cylcones coach Fred Hoiberg said in his post-game press conference after Monday's 77-70 loss to Kansas. "You don't want this to become a trend moving forward. We're giving up inches every night. Our guys battle every night because, at pretty much every position, we're giving up size."
Iowa State had a plus-5.8 rebounding advantage in non-conference games and now faces a Texas team that leads the Big 12 with 42.2 rebounds. The Longhorns, who have won back-to-back games, will have a slight size advantage with Cameron Ridley and Jonathan Holmes on the inside. Texas also leads the league in blocked shots and has held 10 opponents to under 40 percent shooting.
•ABOUT IOWA STATE (14-2 SU, 9-5-0 ATS, 2-2 Big 12): Melvin Ejim leads the Cyclones - and is second in the Big 12 - with 17.8 points and averages 6.9 rebounds. DeAndre Kane adds 16.8 points and 7.3 rebounds while Dustin Hogue contributes 12.4 and a team-high 9.3. Each of the three is shooting better than 50 percent from the floor as the Cyclones dropped their season average to 48.2 percent after a season-low 31.4-percent performance against Kansas.
•ABOUT TEXAS (13-4 SU, 7-7-0 ATS, 2-2 Big 12): Holmes leads the Longhorns with 12.5 points and 7.3 rebounds while Ridley averages 10.6 and a team-high 7.4. Javan Felix is averaging 15.8 points over his last four games with 12 assists and six steals in that span. Freshman Isaiah Taylor averaged 12 points, 5.5 rebounds and four assists during Texas' back-to-back league wins.
•PREGAME NOTES: Iowa State has had at least four players score in double figures in 15 of its 16 games.... Texas is 9-2 on its own court this season and hasn't lost a home game to the Cyclones since 2005.... The Longhorns have improved their free-throw shooting from 63.1 percent during non-conference games to 74.7 percent in league play.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, IOWA ST covered the spread 625 times, while TEXAS covered the spread 375 times. *EDGE against the spread =IOWA ST. In 1000 simulated games, IOWA ST won the game straight up 656 times, while TEXAS won 320 times. In 1000 simulated games, IOWA ST covered the first half line 579 times, while TEXAS covered the first half line 379 times. *EDGE against first half line =IOWA ST.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--IOWA ST is 11-9 against the spread versus TEXAS since 1997.
--TEXAS is 14-6 straight up against IOWA ST since 1997.
--11 of 15 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--IOWA ST is 12-8 versus the first half line when playing against TEXAS since 1997.
--7 of 14 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Cyclones are 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Texas.
--Over is 12-4 in the last 16 meetings.
--Over is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings in Texas.
•RECENT TRENDS
--ISU is 22-7 ATS in their last 29 Sat. games.
--Over is 8-2 in ISU last 10 Sat. games.
--Over is 15-4 in ISU last 19 vs. Big 12.
--TEX is 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 Sat. games.
--Over is 7-1 in TEX last 8 Sat. games.
--Over is 10-2 in TEX last 12 vs. Big 12.
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#583 OKLAHOMA ST @ #584 KANSAS
(TV: 4:00 PM EST, CBS - Line: Kansas -5.5, Total: N/A) - The number of NBA scouts in the stands could rival the number of points scored when No. 8 Oklahoma State visits No. 18 Kansas on Saturday in a battle for the top spot in the Big 12. Jayhawks freshman Andrew Wiggins and Cowboys sophomore Marcus Smart are thought to be two of the prizes awaiting lucky general managers at the top of the draft board in the spring and several others on the court will get long looks as well. Kansas has yet to lose in conference play.
Wiggins collected 17 points and 19 rebounds in a 77-70 win at Iowa State on Monday but hasn’t even been the most impressive freshman on his own team at times, with Wayne Selden Jr. and Joel Embiid putting up impressive numbers too. Oklahoma State relies on more experience around Smart and has won three straight since dropping its Big 12 opener at Kansas State on Jan. 4. Smart went for 20 or more points in each of the last three games and leads the Big 12 in scoring at an average of 17.9 points.
•ABOUT OKLAHOMA STATE (15-2 SU, 7-6-0 ATS, 3-1 Big 12): The Cowboys dominated TCU 82-50 at home on Wednesday but have struggled a bit on the road with the loss at Kansas State and a narrow 73-72 decision over West Virginia last weekend. Oklahoma State coach Travis Ford understands the magnitude of the challenge at Kansas. “It’s going to be a tough environment, as we know, against maybe the most talented and deep team in all of college basketball,” Ford told reporters. “You’ve got to do some things to keep us in the game. Be very humble of the opportunity you have to play in an environment like this.” Markel Brown scored 28 points and Smart had 25 when the Cowboys stunned then-No. 2 Kansas 85-80 at Allen Fieldhouse last season.
•ABOUT KANSAS (12-4 SU, 8-8-0 ATS, 3-0 Big 12): Most of the Jayhawks’ core was not around for that home loss to Oklahoma State last season, and the trio of Wiggins, Embiid and Selden Jr. is getting stronger as the season moves along. Wiggins’ 19 boards on Monday were one shy of Kansas’ freshman record and Embiid is 12-for-15 from the field in the last two games while coming up one rebound shy of a double-double in each. The Jayhawks are one of the best shooting teams in the country at 50 percent from the floor and have four players averaging double figures, with sophomore Perry Ellis (13.3 points) joining the freshman trio.
•PREGAME NOTES: Embiid blocked five shots Monday and has swatted away eight in three Big 12 games.... Oklahoma State G Phil Forte leads the Big 12 in 3-point shooting at 47.9 percent.... The Jayhawks are facing back-to-back top-10 opponents for the first time since the 2012 Final Four.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, OKLAHOMA ST covered the spread 696 times, while KANSAS covered the spread 304 times. *EDGE against the spread =OKLAHOMA ST. In 1000 simulated games, OKLAHOMA ST won the game straight up 530 times, while KANSAS won 443 times. In 1000 simulated games, OKLAHOMA ST covered the first half line 635 times, while KANSAS covered the first half line 328 times. *EDGE against first half line =OKLAHOMA ST.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--OKLAHOMA ST is 13-10 against the spread versus KANSAS since 1997.
--KANSAS is 16-7 straight up against OKLAHOMA ST since 1997.
--14 of 20 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--OKLAHOMA ST is 12-10 versus the first half line when playing against KANSAS since 1997.
--12 of 20 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Road team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--OKST is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games.
--Over is 11-4 in OKST last 15 Sat. games.
--Over is 6-1 in OKST last 7 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
--KU is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 Sat. games.
--KU is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 vs. Big 12.
--Over is 4-0 in KU last 4 Saturday games.
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#587 PITTSBURGH @ #588 SYRACUSE
(TV: 4:00 PM EST, ESPN - Line: Syracuse -5, Total: N/A) - While No. 2 Syracuse is undefeated and garnering considerable national attention, No. 21 Pittsburgh is one point away from being in a similar position. The Panthers visit the Orange on Saturday in a matchup of former Big East rivals with a combined record of 33-1. The one loss by Pittsburgh was a 44-43 defeat to Cincinnati - another former Big East program - back on Dec. 17.
"The teams the ACC picked, the ones they went after, I think their mission was to get the best basketball teams they could," Pitt coach Jamie Dixon said, via Syracuse.com. "And Syracuse and us, I think we were one (in the Big East) in the last 10 years by a pretty good margin and they were two, so I think there was a plan that they would try to get some teams that had won before." Of course, both teams are winning now as well, and doing so in impressive fashion. The Orange have given up more than 67 points just twice this season while all 16 of Pitt's wins have come by at least seven points.
•ABOUT PITTSBURGH (16-1 SU, 5-9-0 ATS, 4-0 ACC): The Panthers have won six in a row, including an 81-74 victory at Georgia Tech on Tuesday in which Talib Zanna posted 22 points and nine rebounds. Playing without sixth man Durand Johnson (ACL tear), Pittsburgh received 70 of its 81 points from the starters and absolutely dominated the glass. "The rebounding was something we came in and had to do, and had to win that on the road," said Dixon, whose team outrebounded the Yellow Jackets, 38-18.
•ABOUT SYRACUSE (17-0 SU, 9-4-0 ATS, 4-0 ACC): "We played as bad offensively as we have all year," coach Jim Boeheim said after Monday's 69-59 win at Boston College, even though his team put up respectable numbers from the field (45.3 percent), the 3-point line (4-of-10) and foul line (17-of-21). Sophomore guard Trevor Cooney bailed out the team with 21 points while freshman backcourt mate Tyler Ennis had 12 points, six steals and five assists. Ennis has 13 games with at least five assists and only one game in which he committed more than two turnovers.
•PREGAME NOTES: Syracuse is one of three undefeated teams in the country, along with No. 1 Arizona and No. 5 Wichita State.... The Orange and Panthers split two games last season, with Syracuse getting the win when the teams met in the Big East tournament.... Pittsburgh averages only three blocks, with Zanna posting a team-high 0.9 blocks per game.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, PITTSBURGH covered the spread 603 times, while SYRACUSE covered the spread 373 times. *EDGE against the spread =PITTSBURGH. In 1000 simulated games, SYRACUSE won the game straight up 517 times, while PITTSBURGH won 441 times. In 1000 simulated games, PITTSBURGH covered the first half line 586 times, while SYRACUSE covered the first half line 414 times. *EDGE against first half line =PITTSBURGH.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--PITTSBURGH is 16-10 against the spread versus SYRACUSE since 1997.
--PITTSBURGH is 14-12 straight up against SYRACUSE since 1997.
--11 of 18 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--PITTSBURGH is 14-11 versus the first half line when playing against SYRACUSE since 1997.
--12 of 17 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Panthers are 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
--Panthers are 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Syracuse.
--Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Syracuse.
•RECENT TRENDS
--PITT is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
--Over is 9-2 in PITT last 11 overall.
--Over is 60-28-1 in PITT last 89 Sat. games.
--SYR is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 Sat. games.
--SYR is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
--Under is 4-1 in SYR last 5 home games.
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#589 FLORIDA @ #590 AUBURN
(TV: 4:00 PM EST, SEC TV, ESPN3 - Line: Florida -8, Total: N/A) - Fresh off setting a school record for consecutive home wins, No. 7 Florida looks to remain unbeaten in the Southeastern Conference when it visits Auburn on Saturday afternoon. The Gators are coming off a 22-point rout of Georgia that extended their overall winning streak to eight games and marked their record 25th straight victory at home. "It's cool to be a part of that and to accomplish something like that," center Patric Young said. "Hopefully, we can top it with an NCAA championship."
Auburn absorbed its third straight defeat, a 78-67 loss at Tennessee on Wednesday, to join South Carolina as the only winless teams in the conference. The Tigers have played much better at home, winning seven in a row before a two-point setback to then-No. 21 Missouri last Saturday. Leading scorer Casey Prather is expected to return on a limited basis for the Gators, who have won 15 of their last 16 matchups with Auburn - the only loss coming in the SEC tournament in 2009.
•ABOUT FLORIDA (14-2 SU, 6-5-1 ATS, 3-0 SEC): Prather, who has missed the last two games due to a bone bruise in his right knee, was cleared for contact Friday, but coach Billy Donovan said it's doubtful he'll play significant minutes. That won't be the case for sophomore guard Michael Frazier II, who scored a career-high 21 points in Tuesday's win. The conference leader in 3-point field-goal percentage at 47.3, Frazier started 1-for-8 from long range against Georgia but buried four straight from behind the arc in a game-breaking spurt for his fourth contest with five 3-pointers this season.
•ABOUT AUBURN (8-6 SU, 5-5-0 ATS, 0-3 SEC): The strength of the Tigers is in the backcourt, which features the conference's leading scorer in senior Chris Denson (19.4) and third-leading scorer in junior KT Harrell (19.0). Denson's 272 points through 14 games are the most by an Auburn player since the 1993-94 season, while Harrell is the first Tiger to score in double figures in the first 14 games since 2002-03. Each guard has recorded at least 20 points on six occasions this season and their combined 38.4-point scoring average ranks eighth nationally among highest-scoring teammates.
•PREGAME NOTES: Florida has held nine opponents under 60 points.... Auburn has been manhandled on the glass the last two games, getting outrebounded by a combined 86-56 margin.... Florida has won five straight against the Tigers and seven in a row at Auburn.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, AUBURN covered the spread 489 times, while FLORIDA covered the spread 480 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, FLORIDA won the game straight up 722 times, while AUBURN won 253 times. In 1000 simulated games, AUBURN covered the first half line 557 times, while FLORIDA covered the first half line 443 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--FLORIDA is 13-8 against the spread versus AUBURN since 1997.
--FLORIDA is 18-3 straight up against AUBURN since 1997.
--8 of 15 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--AUBURN is 11-10 versus the first half line when playing against FLORIDA since 1997.
--8 of 16 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Under is 7-1 in FLA last 8 Sat. games.
--Under is 19-7-1 in FLA last 27 overall.
--Under is 9-2-1 in FLA last 12 vs. Southeastern.
--AUB is 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games overall.
--AUB is 1-11 ATS in their last 12 vs. Southeastern.
--Over is 13-3 in AUB last 16 games following a ATS loss.
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#593 UCLA @ #594 UTAH
(TV: 4:00 PM EST, Fox Sports 1 - Line: UCLA -2, Total: N/A) - Two of the nation’s best all-around players will be on opposite sides Saturday, when Utah hosts No. 25 UCLA in a Pac-12 game. Utes guard Delon Wright, who grew up in the Los Angeles area, is averaging 15.9 points, 7.2 rebounds, 5.2 assists and 2.7 steals. For the Bruins, Kyle Anderson - who at 6-9 has a four-inch height advantage on Wright - checks in with averages of 14.8, 9.1, 6.5 and 1.9.
The Utes are coming off an 18-point win over Southern California after two close losses. A key for UCLA will be the performance of leading scorer Jordan Adams, who's shooting 36.1 percent from the floor over the last seven games and has surpassed his current scoring average of 17.8 points just once in that span. Among the top three in the nation with 3.4 steals, Adams is finding other ways to contribute, however, reaching double figures in rebounds against top-ranked Arizona last week and Colorado on Thursday to prompt Buffaloes coach Tad Boyle to say Adams “manhandled” his team.
•ABOUT UCLA (14-3 SU, 10-6-0 ATS, 3-1 Pac-12): Norman Powell finally put up good numbers against a quality opponent Thursday, and if the Bruins can squeeze 19 points out of him every game, they’ll have a much better chance of staying on Arizona’s heels. Powell is 15-for-25 in the last three games, and Anderson is wise enough to know who has the hot hand when it's time to pass the ball. There hasn’t been any let up off the bench in the backcourt either, as Zach LaVine is third on the team in scoring (12.4) and Bryce Alford fifth (7.9).
•ABOUT UTAH (13-4 SU, 9-2-1 ATS, 2-3 Pac-12): The Bruins aren’t a strong rebounding team in their frontcourt, so Jordan Loveridge can do some damage if he works hard enough. He won’t have a size advantage at 6-6 but knows how to leverage his body and work the angles to average a team-high 8.2 rebounds. Dallin Bachynski, a 7-foot reserve center, could do significant damage in a half-court setting as UCLA doesn’t have anyone that can match up with him one-on-one.
•PREGAME NOTES: Anderson came into Thursday’s game as the only player in Division I averaging at least 15 points, nine rebounds and six assists this season. The last player to post those numbers was Evan Turner of Ohio State in 2010.... UCLA F David Wear is looking to score in double figures in back-to-back games in the same season for the first time since the first three games of 2012-13.... The Utes will honor their championship teams from the 1990's during halftime.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, UTAH covered the spread 561 times, while UCLA covered the spread 414 times. *EDGE against the spread =UTAH. In 1000 simulated games, UTAH won the game straight up 498 times, while UCLA won 471 times. In 1000 simulated games, UTAH covered the first half line 528 times, while UCLA covered the first half line 419 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--UTAH is 1-1 against the spread versus UCLA since 1997.
--UCLA is 2-0 straight up against UTAH since 1997.
--1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--UCLA is 2-0 versus the first half line when playing against UTAH since 1997.
--1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
•RECENT TRENDS
--UCLA is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 vs. Pacific-12.
--Under is 5-0 in UCLA last 5 road games.
--Under is 4-1 in UCLA last 5 Saturday games.
--UTAH is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 Sat. games.
--UTAH is 22-6-1 ATS in their last 29 home games.
--UTAH is 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 vs. Pacific-12.
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#595 INDIANA ST @ #596 WICHITA ST
(TV: 4:00 PM EST, ESPN2 - Line: Wichita State -10.5, Total: N/A) - No.5 Wichita State could face its biggest hurdle to an undefeated regular season Saturday when it hosts Indiana State in a battle of the only unbeaten teams in the Missouri Valley Conference. The Shockers enter the showdown tied with No.1 Arizona for the most wins in Division I and could be the fresher team after going deep into its bench in Tuesday's lopsided victory over Bradley. "We got some guys some quality minutes and we were able to rest a lot of the starters," coach Gregg Marshall told reporters. "We're trying to lengthen our bench. We're trying to get more guys that can pull the wagon."
The Sycamores trailed for under two minutes in Wednesday's victory over Missouri State, the same team that had Wichita State down 18 points before the Shockers rallied to victory. Greg Lansing's team is 5-0 in league play for the first time since the Larry Bird-led Sycamores went 16-0 during the 1978-79 season, which ended with a loss in the national championship game. "We were talking probably for the last 10 minutes of the game, this is prep for Saturday," Lansing said. "We can't give up second shots. We really have to concentrate on blocking out, we have to keep the ball in front of us and we really have to have quality possessions."
•ABOUT INDIANA STATE (14-3 SU, 8-7-0 ATS, 5-0 MVC): The Sycamores had the luxury of playing a Missouri State team minus leading scorer Marcus Marshall, who is out indefinitely after tearing the meniscus in his right knee in the loss to Wichita State. "When you don't have a player like Marshall out there who requires a lot of attention, you can focus on other guys a little bit more, so we did that," Lansing said. "We switched gears as soon as we knew he wasn't playing, kind of shifted our game plan a little bit. I thought Missouri State competed like crazy and those other guys stepped up pretty well." With Carl Hall and Malcolm Armstead gone from last year's Wichita State team, the Sycamores will have to focus on leading scorers Cleanthony Early, Ron Baker and Fred VanVleet.
•ABOUT WICHITA STATE (18-0 SU, 11-3-1 ATS, 5-0 MVC): Early had a quiet game in a blowout of Bradley early in the week, but leads the Shockers in scoring and rebounding at 16 points and 6.6 rebounds per game. Baker and the point guard VanVleet go for 12.8 points per game apiece, both shoot better than 39 percent from beyond the arc and along with Early have combined to make 83.9 percent of their free throws. "It's been driving me nuts this week, people talking about the Wichita State game," Lansing said. "We can play really good and get beat, that's how good Wichita State is, but this is why you come to Indiana State. What could be better?"
•PREGAME NOTES: Each team won on the other's court last season, including a 13-point win by Indiana State.... Indiana State will play its highest-ranked opponent since facing No.6 Tulsa in 1981.... The Sycamores have won seven straight, their longest winning streak since 2005-06.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, INDIANA ST covered the spread 510 times, while WICHITA ST covered the spread 490 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, WICHITA ST won the game straight up 775 times, while INDIANA ST won 201 times. In 1000 simulated games, INDIANA ST covered the first half line 515 times, while WICHITA ST covered the first half line 442 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--INDIANA ST is 21-16 against the spread versus WICHITA ST since 1997.
--WICHITA ST is 23-15 straight up against INDIANA ST since 1997.
--13 of 20 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--INDIANA ST is 19-17 versus the first half line when playing against WICHITA ST since 1997.
--11 of 17 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Sycamores are 6-1-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Wichita St..
--Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.
--Road team is 20-8-1 ATS in the last 29 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--INST is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Saturday games.
--INST is 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
--Over is 5-1 in Sycamores last 6 road games.
--WICH is 21-7-2 ATS in their last 30 games overall.
--WICH is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
--Under is 20-6 in WICH last 26 home games.
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#597 DEPAUL @ #598 VILLANOVA
(TV: 4:00 PM EST, FSN - Line: Villanova -18, Total: N/A) - The trap has been set for No. 6 Villanova -- or so visiting DePaul can hope. The Blue Demons visit Philadelphia to face the Wildcats on Saturday, two days before Villanova's showdown with No. 19 Creighton. It would be easy enough for the Wildcats to overlook a DePaul team that has hovered around .500 all season, but the Blue Demons have won two straight following a three-game skid to start Big East play and are coming off a 77-75 home victory over St. John's on Tuesday.
The Wildcats have won four straight since their lone defeat, a 78-62 loss at Syracuse on Dec. 28, but they had to rally from a halftime deficit to win at St. John's last Saturday. "We're a tough-minded team, and that comes from coach getting on us in practice and bringing us together," leading scorer JayVaughn Pinkston told reporters. Villanova has won six straight in the series and eight of 10 meetings in coach Jay Wright's tenure.
•ABOUT DEPAUL (10-8 SU, 9-8-0 ATS, 2-3 Big East): The Blue Demons' last three wins have come by a combined eights points, including a 99-94 double-overtime victory at Butler. That's a sign of budding maturity for a team that leans heavily on freshmen Billy Garrett Jr. (11.6 points) and Tommy Hamilton IV (9.5 points, 5.3 rebounds). The two have emerged to complement the senior duo of Cleveland Melvin (16.6 points, 6.6 rebounds) and Brandon Young (14.6 points, 4.2 assists).
•ABOUT VILLANOVA (15-1 SU, 11-3-0 ATS, 4-0 Big East): The Wildcats struggled on offense in their 74-67 win at St. John's, belying their typical efficiency at that end of the floor. Pinkston (16.1 points, 5.4 rebounds) leads a trio of double-digit scorers and has been even more effective in conference play, and Darrun Hilliard (13.9 points) and James Bell (13.8 points, 6.1 rebounds) also can put up big numbers. Villanova gets a boost off the bench from standout freshman Josh Hart (9.9 points, 4.7 rebounds), who has been named Big East Rookie of the Week three times in the past four weeks.
•PREGAME NOTES: Villanova has held 46 consecutive opponents under 50 percent shooting dating to Nov. 16, 2012, against Alabama.... The Blue Demons haven't won three straight conference games in the same season since February 2007.... The Wildcats have made 10 or more 3-pointers eight times this season, including seven of the past 10 games.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, VILLANOVA covered the spread 549 times, while DEPAUL covered the spread 421 times. *EDGE against the spread =VILLANOVA. In 1000 simulated games, VILLANOVA won the game straight up 924 times, while DEPAUL won 66 times. In 1000 simulated games, DEPAUL covered the first half line 486 times, while VILLANOVA covered the first half line 466 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--VILLANOVA is 5-5 against the spread versus DEPAUL since 1997.
--VILLANOVA is 8-2 straight up against DEPAUL since 1997.
--6 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--DEPAUL is 7-3 versus the first half line when playing against VILLANOVA since 1997.
--5 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
--Home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Under is 7-2 in DEP last 9 overall.
--Under is 7-1 in DEP last 8 road games.
--Over is 5-2-1 in DEP last 8 Sat. games.
--VILL is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 Sat. games.
--VILL is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 vs. Big East.
--VILL is 27-11 ATS in their last 38 games overall.
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#605 CINCINNATI @ #606 S FLORIDA
(TV: 5:00 PM EST, ESPNU - Line: Cincinnati -8, Total: N/A) - Now that it is finally getting some national clout in the polls, No. 23 Cincinnati looks to keep moving up the ladder when it visits South Florida on Saturday. After breaking into the Top 25 for the first time this season, the Bearcats aren't ready to sit on their laurels. "We’ve got to continue to make sure everybody is humble and ready to just keep going every game," Cincinnati guard Sean Kilpatrick told the Cincinnati Enquirer, "because the ranked teams are usually the ones that slack when they’ve got that number next to their name.”
Riding a season-high nine-game winning streak and sitting atop the American Athletic Conference where it is unbeaten, Cincinnati hits the road with its national ranking in tow for the first time after dispatching Temple 69-58 at home on Tuesday. Kilpatrick, who matched his season high with 23 points in the win, leads the ACC in scoring at 18.6 points per game while shooting nearly 42 percent from the floor. South Florida has dropped three of its last four, falling at Southern Methodist 71-54 on Wednesday when the Bulls shot only 32.1 percent from the floor.
•ABOUT CINCINNATI (16-2 SU, 8-4-0 ATS, 5-0 AAC): The Bearcats are off to their best conference start since 2002-03 when they opened 6-0 in Conference USA play. In addition to Kilpatrick, Forward Justin Jackson is scoring in double digits, averaging 11.7 points and a team-high 7.7 rebounds for Cincinnati, which has the stingiest defense in the AAC, allowing opponents an average of 56.3 points a game. The Bearcats have gone 25 straight games in holding opponents under 70 points, marking the longest current streak in the nation.
•ABOUT SOUTH FLORIDA (10-7 SU, 5-9-0 ATS, 1-3 AAC): Coming off of its first road loss of the season, the Bulls return home where they are 6-4. South Florida is led by forward Victor Rudd (15.5) and guard Corey Allen Jr. (11.8) with Rudd also topping the Bulls in rebounding at seven per game. Rudd topped 1,000 career points in the loss to SMU, which held the senior to a season-low five points, but he still needs 34 points to reach the milestone at South Florida, where Rudd transferred to after his freshman season at Arizona State.
•PREGAME NOTES: Kilpatrick has played in 124 consecutive games, the third-longest streak in program history.... South Florida leads the AAC in free throw attempts with 451, but ranks eighth in the conference in foul shooting at 65.6 percent.... The Bearcats have only had nine scholarship players suit up over the past week, four shy of the allotted 13, due to injuries and academic ineligibility.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, CINCINNATI covered the spread 531 times, while S FLORIDA covered the spread 444 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, CINCINNATI won the game straight up 764 times, while S FLORIDA won 219 times. In 1000 simulated games, S FLORIDA covered the first half line 514 times, while CINCINNATI covered the first half line 486 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--S FLORIDA is 12-8 against the spread versus CINCINNATI since 1997.
--CINCINNATI is 15-5 straight up against S FLORIDA since 1997.
--8 of 14 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--S FLORIDA is 10-10 versus the first half line when playing against CINCINNATI since 1997.
--7 of 14 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Bearcats are 2-9 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
--Underdog is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
--Road team is 12-5 ATS in the last 17 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--CIN is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
--Under is 44-12 in CIN last 56 overall.
--Under is 19-7 in CIN last 26 road games.
--USF is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games.
--USF is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
--Under is 10-1 in USF last 11 Sat. games.
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