THE SPORTS ADVISORS
(12) Notre Dame (12-4, 4-6 ATS) at ( Syracuse (16-2, 7-7 ATS)
Two Big East heavyweights coming off road losses get together when Syracuse takes on Notre Dame at the Carrier Dome.
The Orange fell to Georgetown 88-74 as a 6½-point road pup Wednesday, halting a seven-game SU win streak (4-2 ATS in lined games), which included victories in their first four Big East games. The double-digit setback was a bit of a reversal of fortune, as Syracuse posted five double-digit victories during its seven-game surge. Still, including the loss at Georgetown, the Orange have outshot opponents 50.8 percent to 42.1 percent in their last five contests and are averaging nearly 10 points more per game (80.0-70.4).
The Fighting Irish lost to Louisville 87-73 in overtime Monday, scoring just two points in the extra frame in failing to cover as a 6½-point road underdog, the team’s third ATS setback in the last four games (2-2 SU). Over its past five contests, Notre Dame has barely outscored its opponents (78.2-77.2), hitting 45.1 percent from the floor while allowing 46.2 percent shooting.
Notre Dame is on a 3-0 SU and ATS surge in this rivalry, including a 94-87 home win last February as a 6½-point chalk, and the Irish are on a 5-0 ATS run at the Carrier Dome. The road team is 10-2 ATS in the last 12 clashes, and the underdog has cashed nine times during this stretch.
The Orange are 1-4 ATS in their last five starts following a SU loss, but they are on pointspread upticks of 4-0 on Saturday, 4-1 against winning teams and 4-1 after a non-cover. The Irish sport ATS trends of 4-0 after a SU loss and 5-1 after a pointspread loss, but they are also on ATS slides of 0-4 on Saturday, 2-5 on the road and 2-5 against winning teams.
The over for Syracuse is on streaks of 4-1 overall, 10-4 at home, 4-0 against winning teams, 4-1 in the Big East and 5-2 on Saturday, and the over for Notre Dame is on stretches of 19-9 overall, 4-0 against winning teams, 4-1 on the road and 21-7 in Big East play. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has gone high in each of the last four contests.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
(13) Georgetown (12-3, 6-5 ATS) at (3) Duke (15-1, 9-6 ATS)
Streaking Duke steps out of ACC play in pursuit of its eighth straight win when it plays host to Georgetown at Cameron Indoor Stadium.
The Blue Devils notched back-to-back ACC road wins in their last two games, including Wednesday’s 70-56 victory at Georgia Tech, and they barely squeaked out the spread-cover as a 12-point chalk, which ended a two-game ATS hiccup. Duke has gone 4-2 ATS in lined games during its current seven-game winning run, and over the last five games, the Devils have averaged 75.2 points while holding opponents to just 55.2 points and a stifling 36.3 percent shooting.
The Hoyas rolled over Syracuse 88-74 as a 6½-point home favorite Wednesday for their second consecutive win after a two-game SU skid, and the cover halted a three-game ATS slide. For the season, Georgetown has outscored opponents by more than 14 ppg (75.0-60.7). However, that gap closes considerably in road games (70.5-68.0), and in their last five outings overall, the Hoyas have averaged just a bucket better than their opponents (73.0-71.0).
In four meetings since the 2002-03 season, Duke is 3-1 against Georgetown, but the Hoyas are 3-1 ATS. In the most recent clash two years ago, the Blue Devils won 61-52, but fell short as a 10-point favorite.
The Blue Devils are on a 5-2 ATS run at home, but they are in ATS ruts of 1-6 on Saturday and 2-7 against the Big East. The Hoyas, meanwhile, have cashed in five of their last six games against ACC foes and are on a 4-1 in their last five following a SU win, but they are on pointspread declines of 1-4 after a spread-cover and 6-14 on Saturday.
The under for Duke is on tears of 19-7 overall, 15-3 at Cameron Indoor, 7-0 against the Big East, 5-0 after a SU win, 4-1 on Saturday and 36-17 in non-conference play. The under for Georgetown is on runs of 14-4 on the road and 20-7 on the highway against teams with a home win percentage above .600, but the over for the Hoyas is on rolls of 4-1 on Saturday and 7-3 against the ACC, and the over has cashed in three of the last four games between these two.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DUKE
(6) Oklahoma (16-1, 7-5 ATS) at Texas A&M (15-2, 5-4 ATS)
Big 12 powerhouse Oklahoma makes the trek to College Station to take on Texas A&M, which has ripped off victories in 11 of its last 12 games.
The Sooners dumped No. 11 Texas 78-63 as a 2½-point home favorite Monday, ending a six-game losing skid to their rivals while winning their fourth in a row overall following an upset loss at Arkansas. Oklahoma (2-0 SU and ATS in the Big 12) has been solid offensively, averaging 84.0 ppg on 47.8 percent shooting in their last five games, but defense has been the key, as the Sooners have allowed just 33.2 percent shooting during their current four-game run.
The Aggies topped No. 21 Baylor 84-73 Wednesday as a 1½-point home underdog as they bounced back from their SU and ATS loss at Oklahoma State in the Big 12 opener. Although A&M has been on a tear lately, much of its success has come against sub-par opposition, with four of the Aggies’ last 11 wins coming in non-lined games on their home floor. In its last five outings, A&M has averaged 66.8 ppg on 42.2 percent shooting, while allowing 61.4 ppg on 40.9 percent shooting.
These teams split last year’s meetings, with the host winning and covering in each case. However, Oklahoma is on a 4-1 ATS run in College Station, and the road team has cashed in six of the last eight clashes.
The Sooners are 5-2 ATS in their last seven Big 12 games, but they are otherwise on negative pointspread streaks of 2-5 after a spread-cover, 16-35-2 on the highway and 17-40-2 on the road against teams with a winning home record. The Aggies are on ATS rolls of 10-4 overall, 5-1 on Saturday, 4-1 after a spread-cover, 4-1 inside the Big 12, 8-3 against winning teams and a lengthy 39-19 against teams with a winning percentage above .600.
The under for Oklahoma is on tears of 8-2-1 on the road, 6-0 on Saturday and 8-1 in conference play, and the under for Texas A&M is on stretches of 5-2 at home, 6-2 in the Big 12, 10-3 after a SU win and 6-2 after an ATS triumph.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
(2) Wake Forest (15-0, 7-4 ATS) at (10) Clemson (16-0, 5-5-1 ATS)
Something will have to give in a battle of ACC unbeatens when Wake Forest heads to Littlejohn Coliseum to take on Clemson.
The Demon Deacons followed up Sunday’s 92-89 home victory over then-No. 3 North Carolina with Wednesday’s 83-63 road rout of Boston College as a three-point chalk, and they’ve now cashed in their last four lined contests. Over the last six games, Wake has scored no less than 83 points and has broken 90 points three times, averaging 88.8 ppg in that stretch while allowing 72.2. In the last five games, the Deacons have hit 50.5 percent from the floor and allowed just 36.5 percent shooting.
The Tigers topped North Carolina State 63-51 last Saturday but settled for the push as a 12-point home favorite, falling to 0-2-1 ATS in their last three starts, all as a double-digit chalk. Clemson hasn’t been quite the offensive juggernaut that Wake has been, but over the last five games – all lined contests -- the Tigers have outscored their opponents by more than 12 ppg (79.4-67.0) and outshot them 46.2 percent to 41.5 percent.
Wake Forest is on a 6-0 ATS spree (4-2 SU) in this ACC rivalry, losing 80-75 in overtime on the road last year but getting the cash as an 11½-point underdog. In fact, these squads have gone to OT in three of the last four clashes. The Demon Deacons are also on a 5-0 ATS surge playing in Death Valley, and the road team has covered in seven of the last nine meetings.
The Deacons are on ATS surges of 4-0 against winning teams, 6-0 against teams with a winning percentage above .600, 9-3 after a spread-cover and 7-3 on the road versus teams with a winning home record. The Tigers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five ACC games, but they are on ATS skids of 1-4-1 at home and 2-6 at Littlejohn against teams with a winning road record.
The under for Clemson is on runs of 7-0 on Saturday and 4-0 at home, but the over is on streaks of 4-0 against winning teams and 12-4 at home against teams with a winning road record. Furthermore, the over for Wake Forest is on streaks of 4-1 on Saturday and 7-3 in the ACC, and in this rivalry, the total has gone high in four straight contests at Clemson and is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: WAKE FOREST and OVER
(16) Arizona State (14-3, 8-5 ATS) at (9) UCLA (14-2, 8-7 ATS)
Red-hot UCLA goes after its 11th straight victory when it takes on Arizona State in a battle of ranked Pac-10 teams at Pauley Pavilion.
The Bruins routed Arizona 83-60 Thursday night as an 11½-point home chalk for their third cover in four conference games. Over the past five games, UCLA has allowed more than 60 points just once, in an 83-74 victory at Oregon State as a 10½-point favorite. In that span, UCLA has scored 75.4 ppg and allowed just 59.0, and the Bruins have been even better at home this season, averaging 81.7 ppg and giving up just 57.2.
The Sun Devils fell to Southern Cal 61-49 as a one-point road favorite Thursday, ending a two-game SU and ATS run, though ASU is still 10-2 SU in its last 12 games (6-3 ATS in lined contests). Arizona State (2-2 SU and ATS in Pac-10 action) has been solid defensively all season, allowing 58.5 ppg.
UCLA has won the last eight meetings in this rivalry, going 4-4 ATS in that stretch. The Bruins cashed in the last year’s two contests following a 4-0 ATS run by ASU.
The Bruins are on ATS upticks of 6-0 against winning teams, 5-0 versus teams with a win percentage above .600 and 7-3 after a SU win, but they also carry negative ATS trends of 1-5 at home against teams with a winning road mark, 1-4 after a spread-cover and 2-7 after a SU win of more than 20 points. The Sun Devils, meanwhile, are on nothing but positive ATS runs, including 7-0 after a non-cover, 5-1 after a SU loss, 4-1 on Saturday, 6-2-1 on the road and 6-2-1 inside the Pac-10.
The over for UCLA is on rolls of 9-3 on Saturday, 6-2 after a spread-cover and 4-1 against teams with a winning percentage above .600, and the over is 5-1 in ASU’s last six Saturday games. However, the under for the Sun Devils is on surges of 25-12 in Pac-10 play and 17-7 after a SU loss.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Oklahoma State (12-3, 4-4-1 ATS) at (21) Baylor (13-3, 4-4 ATS)
Oklahoma State guns for its eighth straight victory – and its first against a ranked opponent this season – when it heads south to Waco for a Big 12 clash with 21st-ranked Baylor.
The Cowboys kicked off the Big 12 season with last Saturday’s 72-61 rout as a seven-point home favorite. Oklahoma State has played just three lined games (2-0-1 ATS) during its seven-game winning streak, but six of the seven victories were by double digits. Also, the Cowboys are averaging 89.3 ppg during the winning run. On the downside for Oklahoma State, its only two games against ranked teams were back-to-back blowout losses to Gonzaga (83-71) and Michigan State (94-79) in a preseason tournament.
Baylor started the Big 12 season with a 73-61 home win over Texas Tech, coming up short as a 13-point favorite. Then on Wednesday the Bears went to Texas A&M and fell 84-73 as a 1½-point road chalk. Baylor has followed up a six-game winning streak by losing two of its last three (0-3 ATS).
The home team has won five straight in this rivalry, going 3-0 ATS in the last three. Last year, Baylor won 79-71 as a 7½-point favorite in Waco, then the Cowboys got revenge with a 93-83 victory as a one-point chalk in Stillwater, Okla., halting an 0-4 ATS slide in this series. Finally, the favorite is 5-2-1 ATS in the last eight clashes.
Oklahoma State has scored more than 70 points in 14 of their 15 games, reaching triple digits three times, and they rank fifth in the nation in scoring (85 ppg) and second in three-point shooting (42.2 percent). Like the Cowboys, the Bears have scored more than 70 points in all but one game, and they’re eighth nationally in scoring (82.2 ppg) and 13th in field-goal shooting (49.2 percent).
Oklahoma State is on ATS streaks of 8-1-1 in Big 12 play, 4-0-1 on Saturday and 5-2-1 after a spread-cover, but the Cowboys are 7-20-1 ATS in their last 28 on the road. Baylor is 4-1 ATS in its last five on Saturday but 1-4 ATS in its last five conference games.
The over is 5-0 in the last five in this series, and for the Bears, the over is on streaks of 20-6 overall, 9-4 at home, 35-16 in league play and 19-7 on Saturday. However, Oklahoma State has stayed low in four straight lined games overall, four of five in Big 12 play and five of seven on Saturday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Illinois (15-2, 9-5 ATS) at (7) Michigan State (14-2, 7-6 ATS)
Michigan State looks to remain perfect in Big Ten play and extend a 10-game overall winning streak when it hosts surging Illinois at the Breslin Events Center.
The Spartans built a big lead at Penn State on Wednesday, but had to hold on down the stretch, prevailing 78-73 but coming up just short as a 5½-point road chalk. Since suffering an ugly 98-75 loss to then-No. 1 North Carolina in Detroit, Michigan State has won 10 in a row (5-2-1 ATS), scoring at least 67 points in every game while topping 75 seven times. During the winning streak, Tom Izzo’s team has posted five consecutive blowout home wins, with an average victory margin of 22 ppg.
The Illini erased a one-point halftime deficit against Michigan on Wednesday in a big way, outscoring the Wolverines 36-20 over the final 20 minutes to post a 66-51 win and cover as a seven-point home favorite. Illinois has won nine of its last 10, the only blemish being a 10-point setback at Michigan, and the Illini are 3-1 SU and ATS in four games this year against Top 25 opponents.
Michigan State is 4-0 SU and 2-1-1 ATS in Big Ten action, while Illinois is 3-1 SU and ATS in league play.
The Spartans swept the season series last year, winning 51-41 as a nine-point home favorite and 59-51 as a two-point road chalk. Michigan State has won four of the last five SU and ATS after Illinois had gone 5-0 SU and ATS in the previous five. The SU winner has cashed in each of the last 10 meetings, and the favorite has gotten the money in each of the last four.
Illinois is on ATS streaks of 9-4 overall, 8-3 after a SU win, 4-1 on the road, 4-1 against winning teams and 6-0 on Saturday. Meanwhile, the Spartans are on pointspread runs of 4-2 overall, 4-2 in Big Ten play, 5-0 on Saturday and 5-2 against winning teams.
The last five meetings in this series have stayed under the total. Also, the under is on runs of 7-3 for the Spartans overall, 5-1 for the Spartans at home, 7-0 for the Illini on Saturday and 5-0 for the Illini against winning teams. However, Illinois has topped the total in four of its last five on the road.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
South Carolina (12-3, 4-6 ATS) at (24) Tennessee (10-5, 7-6 ATS)
Tennessee will attempt to halt a rare two-game home losing skid when it welcomes South Carolina to Thompson-Boling Arena for an SEC clash.
The Vols hosted Kentucky on Tuesday and couldn’t stop the Wildcats’ Jodie Meeks, who tallied a school-record 54 points in a 90-72 victory as a six-point road underdog. Tennessee has followed up a 37-game home winning streak with consecutive losses in Knoxville, the other being an 89-79 overtime setback to Gonzaga as a 3½-point chalk on Jan. 7. In between, Bruce Pearl’s team went to Georgia last Saturday and knocked off the Bulldogs 86-77, barely cashing as an 8½-point road favorite.
South Carolina saw its three-game winning streak stopped in Wednesday’s ugly 85-68 loss at LSU as a four-point underdog, matching Tennessee’s 1-1 SU and ATS record in SEC play. The Gamecocks have given up 84 points or more in three of their last five games, going 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS during this stretch. In its only two games against Top 25 opponents, South Carolina lost 98-87 at Clemson as a 2½-point home underdog and beat Baylor 85-84 as a 9½-point road underdog.
Tennessee went 3-0 (2-1 ATS) against the Gamecocks last year. During the regular season, the Vols rolled to a 24-point road win as a 6½-point favorite and a 33-point home victory as a 15-point chalk, but in the SEC tournament, South Carolina took Tennessee to the limit before falling 89-87 as a 12½-point underdog. The Vols are 7-2 SU in the last nine meetings, but the Gamecocks are 4-2 ATS in the last six, all as an underdog. In fact, the pup has cashed in seven of the last 10 series meetings.
Tennessee ranks sixth in the nation in scoring at 83.5 ppg despite shooting only 45.5 percent. The Vols have scored at least 72 points in every game this season, going for 80 or more eight times. On the defensive end, however, Tennessee is surrendering 76.1 ppg on 44.7 percent shooting, allowing 77 or more in six of its last eight outings. Meanwhile, the Gamecocks are putting up 80 ppg on 47.4 percent shooting, and they had scored at least 72 points in their first 13 games before being held to 68 in their first two SEC contests. South Carolina gives up 66.6 ppg on 41.1 percent shooting.
The Volunteers are 4-1 ATS in their last five after a non-cover, but only 2-5 ATS in their last seven against teams with a winning record. South Carolina is on ATS hot streaks of 36-17 on the road, 29-8 on the road versus teams with a winning home record, 4-1 after a SU defeat and 4-0 after a non-cover.
The over is on runs of 5-0 for Tennessee overall, 4-1 for Tennessee at home, 4-0 for Tennessee in SEC play, 5-0 for Tennessee on Saturday, 8-3 for South Carolina overall and 5-0 for South Carolina on the road.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SOUTH CAROLINA and OVER
(1) Pittsburgh (16-0, 7-4 ATS) at (20) Louisville (12-3, 8-7 ATS)
The day’s third and final matchup between ranked Big East teams comes from Freedom Hall, where Louisville will attempt to end top-ranked Pitt’s perfect season.
The Cardinals needed overtime to knock off No. 13 Notre Dame on Monday, outscoring the Irish 16-2 in the extra session on their way to an 87-73 victory as a 6½-point home favorite. Since a surprising 56-55 home loss to UNLV, Louisville has won four in a row (3-1 ATS), going 3-0 SU and ATS to start the Big East season.
Pitt shook off a sluggish first half against South Florida on Wednesday and kept its unbeaten season intact with a 75-62 victory, coming up short as a 20½-point home favorite. It was the third consecutive double-digit win for the Panthers and 14th in 16 games this season.
These teams met twice last season, and both were nail-biters. First, Louisville prevailed 75-73 as a one-point road underdog, then Pitt got revenge with a 76-66 overtime victory as a 5½-point underdog in the Big East tournament. Since Louisville joined the Big East, the squads have split their six meetings, with the Panthers going 4-2 ATS and the underdog going 4-2 ATS.
Pitt has the statistical edge on both ends of the court, scoring 77.5 ppg (47.5 percent) and giving up 58.7 ppg (38 percent), while Louisville puts up 75.4 (43.1 percent) and allows 60.7 ppg (38.6 percent). In Big East play, the Panthers are outscoring opponents by 14 ppg (78-64), and the Cardinals are outscoring conference foes by eight ppg (73-65).
Pitt is 5-0 in road/neutral site games this season (4-1 ATS), and Jamie Dixon’s troops beat the only ranked opponent they’ve faced this season, a 70-54 road win at Georgetown as a 3½-point underdog. The Cardinals are 9-1 at Freedom Hall (6-4 ATS), and their last two games – a one-point win at No. 18 Villanova and Monday’s victory over Notre Dame – were their first against Top 25 competition.
The Panthers are on positive pointspread runs of 6-1 on the road, 5-2 in Big East play, 4-1 on Saturday, 5-2 versus winning teams and 5-0 after a non-cover. Louisville is 25-12-1 ATS in its last 38 games overall, 35-16-2 ATS in its last 53 Big East battles and 8-3 ATS in its last 11 on Saturday, but the Cardinals have failed to cover in five of their last seven at home.
The over is 16-7 in Pitt’s last 23 games overall and 13-3 in its last 16 Big East games, but Louisville is on under streaks of 17-7-1 at home and 21-9-1 after a SU win. Finally, the under hit in the first four meetings in this rivalry, but the over was the play in both of last year’s matchups.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PITT
Ohio State (12-3, 6-5 ATS) at (25) Michigan (13-4, 8-4 ATS)
Fresh off a blowout home win over Indiana, Ohio State now makes the trek to Ann Arbor for a battle archrival with Michigan.
The Buckeyes pounded the undermanned Hoosiers on Tuesday, rolling to a 77-53 victory as a 16-point home favorite to end a two-game Big Ten losing skid. Since starting the season 9-0, Ohio State has split its last six contests (2-3 ATS in lined games). During this six-game stretch, Thad Matta’s club is 2-2 SU and ATS in conference play, but 0-2 (1-1 ATS) on the road.
Ohio State won its first two games against Top 25 foes (five-point wins over Miami, Fla., and Notre Dame), but it is 0-2 (1-1 ATS) against ranked Big Ten foes (Michigan State and Minnesota).
Michigan got steamrolled in the second half at Illinois on Wednesday, watching a 31-30 halftime lead turn into a 66-51 loss, failing to cover as a seven-point underdog. The Wolverines are 3-2 (2-3 ATS) in conference action, alternating spread-covers in the five contests, but they’re 2-0 SU and ATS in Big Ten home games. For the season, Michigan is 10-1 SU and 6-1 ATS at Crisler Arena.
The Wolverines ended a seven-game losing skid to their rivals with last year’s 80-70 upset home victory over Ohio State as a five-point underdog. In fact, Michigan cashed in both meetings last year after going 0-5-1 ATS versus the Buckeyes in the previous six matchups.
Ohio State has failed to cash in four of its last five games against winning teams, but otherwise the Buckeyes are on pointspread streaks of 11-5 overall, 6-1 after a spread-cover and 9-4 after an outright victory. Michigan is 4-1 ATS in its last five on Saturday and 6-2 ATS in its last eight after either a SU loss or a non-cover, but it has failed to cash in seven of its last 10 league games.
The under is on runs of 9-4 for Ohio State on the road, 39-17-1 for Ohio State on Saturday, 12-4 for Michigan in Big Ten play, 7-1 for Michigan after an ATS setback and 6-2 for Michigan after a SU loss. However, the over is 6-2 in the Wolverines’ last eight overall and 5-1 in their last six at Crisler Arena. Finally, the total has alternated in the last 10 series meetings, with the most recent clash going over the posted price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
(22) California (15-2, 11-3 ATS) at Stanford (11-3, 10-3 ATS)
Cal puts its nine-game winning streak on the line when it makes the short jaunt to Maples Pavilion in Palo Alto, Calif., for the first meeting of the season against hated rival Stanford.
The Golden Bears have been idle since last Saturday’s thrilling 88-85 triple-overtime win at Washington as a six-point road underdog, which came two days after a 57-50 win at Washington State as a three-point pup. Not only has Cal won nine in a row – scoring at least 72 points in seven of the contests – it has gone 8-0 ATS in lined action. In starting the Pac-10 season 4-0 SU and ATS, the Bears are averaging 73.8 ppg and allowing 65.3 ppg.
Stanford went 10-0 SU and 7-2 ATS in non-conference play, but the Cardinal have lost three of their first four Pac-10 contests, including back-to-back one-point losses at Washington (84-83) and Washington State (55-54) last weekend. On the bright side, since a horrific 90-60 home loss to Arizona State as a one-point favorite in its conference debut, Stanford has cashed in its last three games.
The Cardinal have won eight of the last 10 series meetings, including the last three in a row, and they’re 7-2 ATS in the last nine clashes. Last year in Palo Alto, Stanford beat the Bears 79-69, coming up short as a 10½-point home chalk, as Cal improved to 3-2 ATS in its last five trips to Maples Pavilion, including 2-0 ATS in the last two. In fact, the visitor has cashed in each of the last five series meetings.
In addition to their current 8-0 ATS run, the Bears are on positive pointspread streaks of 12-5 on the road and 5-1 on Saturday. Stanford is on ATS upticks of 6-1 overall, 10-3 at home, 6-1 in Pac-10 play and 8-1 versus winning teams.
This has been an “under” series in recent years, with 10 of the last 14 meetings overall and six of the last eight at Stanford staying low, but the last three in a row have gone over the posted price. Also, most recently, the over is on streaks of 18-8 for Stanford overall, 12-3 for Stanford in Pac-10 play, 7-3 for Stanford on Saturday, 22-10 for Cal overall, 20-8 for Cal on the highway, 20-6 for Cal in conference action and 10-2 for Cal on Saturday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Miami, Fla. (13-3, 6-5 ATS) at (5) North Carolina (15-2, 7-8 ATS)
With its first ACC victory finally out of the way, North Carolina returns home for a conference battle against streaking Miami, which has won six in a row.
The Tar Heels won their first 14 games, all in non-league action, then started the ACC season with consecutive upset losses to Boston College (85-78 as a 23-point home favorite) and Wake Forest (92-89 as a 6½-point home chalk). But they went to Virginia on Thursday and took their frustrations out on the Cavaliers, rolling to an 83-61 win as a 16-point road chalk. It was the 15th time in 17 games that North Carolina had scored at least 83 points.
Miami started ACC play earlier than most squads, getting demolished 91-72 against Clemson as a three-point home favorite on Dec. 21. However, since then, the Hurricanes have ripped off six consecutive wins (2-2 ATS), including a pair of conference victories over Boston College (77-71 as a 2½-point road underdog) and Maryland (62-60 as a 7½-point home chalk). The ‘Canes were held to a season-low point total in Wednesday’s victory over the Terrapins, ending a string of nine straight games scoring at least 70 points.
North Carolina has won three in row (SU and ATS) and five of the last six (4-2 ATS) in this series. In last year’s lone meeting, the Tar Heels went to South Beach and posted a 98-82 victory as an eight-point road favorite. The visitor has cashed in four of the last five head-to-head matchups.
The Tar Heels are second in the nation in scoring (93.6 ppg) and 11th in field-goal offense (49.2 percent), and while they give up 70.4 ppg, they hold the opposition to only 39.5 percent shooting overall and 31.3 percent from three-point range, Miami is putting up 75.7 ppg on just 43.2 percent shooting, but the ‘Canes surrender only 61.8 ppg (37.2 percent). Also, Miami holds opponents to 28.1 percent shooting from long range, which ranks eighth nationally.
Miami is on pointspread runs of 4-1 on the road, 7-1-3 on Saturday, 11-1-2 after an ATS setback and 17-8-2 when facing a team with a winning percentage higher than .600. Meanwhile, despite cashing at Virginia on Thursday, the Tar Heels are mired in ATS slumps of 1-4 at home, 1-5 in ACC play, 1-6 after an outright win and 0-4 on Saturday.
For the Hurricanes, the over is on runs of 8-2 on Saturday, 4-0 against winning teams and 14-4 after a non-cover. For UNC, the over is on runs of 4-1 at home and 4-1 after a spread-cover. Finally, the last four meetings in this rivalry have hurdled the posted price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
(12) Notre Dame (12-4, 4-6 ATS) at ( Syracuse (16-2, 7-7 ATS)
Two Big East heavyweights coming off road losses get together when Syracuse takes on Notre Dame at the Carrier Dome.
The Orange fell to Georgetown 88-74 as a 6½-point road pup Wednesday, halting a seven-game SU win streak (4-2 ATS in lined games), which included victories in their first four Big East games. The double-digit setback was a bit of a reversal of fortune, as Syracuse posted five double-digit victories during its seven-game surge. Still, including the loss at Georgetown, the Orange have outshot opponents 50.8 percent to 42.1 percent in their last five contests and are averaging nearly 10 points more per game (80.0-70.4).
The Fighting Irish lost to Louisville 87-73 in overtime Monday, scoring just two points in the extra frame in failing to cover as a 6½-point road underdog, the team’s third ATS setback in the last four games (2-2 SU). Over its past five contests, Notre Dame has barely outscored its opponents (78.2-77.2), hitting 45.1 percent from the floor while allowing 46.2 percent shooting.
Notre Dame is on a 3-0 SU and ATS surge in this rivalry, including a 94-87 home win last February as a 6½-point chalk, and the Irish are on a 5-0 ATS run at the Carrier Dome. The road team is 10-2 ATS in the last 12 clashes, and the underdog has cashed nine times during this stretch.
The Orange are 1-4 ATS in their last five starts following a SU loss, but they are on pointspread upticks of 4-0 on Saturday, 4-1 against winning teams and 4-1 after a non-cover. The Irish sport ATS trends of 4-0 after a SU loss and 5-1 after a pointspread loss, but they are also on ATS slides of 0-4 on Saturday, 2-5 on the road and 2-5 against winning teams.
The over for Syracuse is on streaks of 4-1 overall, 10-4 at home, 4-0 against winning teams, 4-1 in the Big East and 5-2 on Saturday, and the over for Notre Dame is on stretches of 19-9 overall, 4-0 against winning teams, 4-1 on the road and 21-7 in Big East play. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has gone high in each of the last four contests.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
(13) Georgetown (12-3, 6-5 ATS) at (3) Duke (15-1, 9-6 ATS)
Streaking Duke steps out of ACC play in pursuit of its eighth straight win when it plays host to Georgetown at Cameron Indoor Stadium.
The Blue Devils notched back-to-back ACC road wins in their last two games, including Wednesday’s 70-56 victory at Georgia Tech, and they barely squeaked out the spread-cover as a 12-point chalk, which ended a two-game ATS hiccup. Duke has gone 4-2 ATS in lined games during its current seven-game winning run, and over the last five games, the Devils have averaged 75.2 points while holding opponents to just 55.2 points and a stifling 36.3 percent shooting.
The Hoyas rolled over Syracuse 88-74 as a 6½-point home favorite Wednesday for their second consecutive win after a two-game SU skid, and the cover halted a three-game ATS slide. For the season, Georgetown has outscored opponents by more than 14 ppg (75.0-60.7). However, that gap closes considerably in road games (70.5-68.0), and in their last five outings overall, the Hoyas have averaged just a bucket better than their opponents (73.0-71.0).
In four meetings since the 2002-03 season, Duke is 3-1 against Georgetown, but the Hoyas are 3-1 ATS. In the most recent clash two years ago, the Blue Devils won 61-52, but fell short as a 10-point favorite.
The Blue Devils are on a 5-2 ATS run at home, but they are in ATS ruts of 1-6 on Saturday and 2-7 against the Big East. The Hoyas, meanwhile, have cashed in five of their last six games against ACC foes and are on a 4-1 in their last five following a SU win, but they are on pointspread declines of 1-4 after a spread-cover and 6-14 on Saturday.
The under for Duke is on tears of 19-7 overall, 15-3 at Cameron Indoor, 7-0 against the Big East, 5-0 after a SU win, 4-1 on Saturday and 36-17 in non-conference play. The under for Georgetown is on runs of 14-4 on the road and 20-7 on the highway against teams with a home win percentage above .600, but the over for the Hoyas is on rolls of 4-1 on Saturday and 7-3 against the ACC, and the over has cashed in three of the last four games between these two.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DUKE
(6) Oklahoma (16-1, 7-5 ATS) at Texas A&M (15-2, 5-4 ATS)
Big 12 powerhouse Oklahoma makes the trek to College Station to take on Texas A&M, which has ripped off victories in 11 of its last 12 games.
The Sooners dumped No. 11 Texas 78-63 as a 2½-point home favorite Monday, ending a six-game losing skid to their rivals while winning their fourth in a row overall following an upset loss at Arkansas. Oklahoma (2-0 SU and ATS in the Big 12) has been solid offensively, averaging 84.0 ppg on 47.8 percent shooting in their last five games, but defense has been the key, as the Sooners have allowed just 33.2 percent shooting during their current four-game run.
The Aggies topped No. 21 Baylor 84-73 Wednesday as a 1½-point home underdog as they bounced back from their SU and ATS loss at Oklahoma State in the Big 12 opener. Although A&M has been on a tear lately, much of its success has come against sub-par opposition, with four of the Aggies’ last 11 wins coming in non-lined games on their home floor. In its last five outings, A&M has averaged 66.8 ppg on 42.2 percent shooting, while allowing 61.4 ppg on 40.9 percent shooting.
These teams split last year’s meetings, with the host winning and covering in each case. However, Oklahoma is on a 4-1 ATS run in College Station, and the road team has cashed in six of the last eight clashes.
The Sooners are 5-2 ATS in their last seven Big 12 games, but they are otherwise on negative pointspread streaks of 2-5 after a spread-cover, 16-35-2 on the highway and 17-40-2 on the road against teams with a winning home record. The Aggies are on ATS rolls of 10-4 overall, 5-1 on Saturday, 4-1 after a spread-cover, 4-1 inside the Big 12, 8-3 against winning teams and a lengthy 39-19 against teams with a winning percentage above .600.
The under for Oklahoma is on tears of 8-2-1 on the road, 6-0 on Saturday and 8-1 in conference play, and the under for Texas A&M is on stretches of 5-2 at home, 6-2 in the Big 12, 10-3 after a SU win and 6-2 after an ATS triumph.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
(2) Wake Forest (15-0, 7-4 ATS) at (10) Clemson (16-0, 5-5-1 ATS)
Something will have to give in a battle of ACC unbeatens when Wake Forest heads to Littlejohn Coliseum to take on Clemson.
The Demon Deacons followed up Sunday’s 92-89 home victory over then-No. 3 North Carolina with Wednesday’s 83-63 road rout of Boston College as a three-point chalk, and they’ve now cashed in their last four lined contests. Over the last six games, Wake has scored no less than 83 points and has broken 90 points three times, averaging 88.8 ppg in that stretch while allowing 72.2. In the last five games, the Deacons have hit 50.5 percent from the floor and allowed just 36.5 percent shooting.
The Tigers topped North Carolina State 63-51 last Saturday but settled for the push as a 12-point home favorite, falling to 0-2-1 ATS in their last three starts, all as a double-digit chalk. Clemson hasn’t been quite the offensive juggernaut that Wake has been, but over the last five games – all lined contests -- the Tigers have outscored their opponents by more than 12 ppg (79.4-67.0) and outshot them 46.2 percent to 41.5 percent.
Wake Forest is on a 6-0 ATS spree (4-2 SU) in this ACC rivalry, losing 80-75 in overtime on the road last year but getting the cash as an 11½-point underdog. In fact, these squads have gone to OT in three of the last four clashes. The Demon Deacons are also on a 5-0 ATS surge playing in Death Valley, and the road team has covered in seven of the last nine meetings.
The Deacons are on ATS surges of 4-0 against winning teams, 6-0 against teams with a winning percentage above .600, 9-3 after a spread-cover and 7-3 on the road versus teams with a winning home record. The Tigers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five ACC games, but they are on ATS skids of 1-4-1 at home and 2-6 at Littlejohn against teams with a winning road record.
The under for Clemson is on runs of 7-0 on Saturday and 4-0 at home, but the over is on streaks of 4-0 against winning teams and 12-4 at home against teams with a winning road record. Furthermore, the over for Wake Forest is on streaks of 4-1 on Saturday and 7-3 in the ACC, and in this rivalry, the total has gone high in four straight contests at Clemson and is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: WAKE FOREST and OVER
(16) Arizona State (14-3, 8-5 ATS) at (9) UCLA (14-2, 8-7 ATS)
Red-hot UCLA goes after its 11th straight victory when it takes on Arizona State in a battle of ranked Pac-10 teams at Pauley Pavilion.
The Bruins routed Arizona 83-60 Thursday night as an 11½-point home chalk for their third cover in four conference games. Over the past five games, UCLA has allowed more than 60 points just once, in an 83-74 victory at Oregon State as a 10½-point favorite. In that span, UCLA has scored 75.4 ppg and allowed just 59.0, and the Bruins have been even better at home this season, averaging 81.7 ppg and giving up just 57.2.
The Sun Devils fell to Southern Cal 61-49 as a one-point road favorite Thursday, ending a two-game SU and ATS run, though ASU is still 10-2 SU in its last 12 games (6-3 ATS in lined contests). Arizona State (2-2 SU and ATS in Pac-10 action) has been solid defensively all season, allowing 58.5 ppg.
UCLA has won the last eight meetings in this rivalry, going 4-4 ATS in that stretch. The Bruins cashed in the last year’s two contests following a 4-0 ATS run by ASU.
The Bruins are on ATS upticks of 6-0 against winning teams, 5-0 versus teams with a win percentage above .600 and 7-3 after a SU win, but they also carry negative ATS trends of 1-5 at home against teams with a winning road mark, 1-4 after a spread-cover and 2-7 after a SU win of more than 20 points. The Sun Devils, meanwhile, are on nothing but positive ATS runs, including 7-0 after a non-cover, 5-1 after a SU loss, 4-1 on Saturday, 6-2-1 on the road and 6-2-1 inside the Pac-10.
The over for UCLA is on rolls of 9-3 on Saturday, 6-2 after a spread-cover and 4-1 against teams with a winning percentage above .600, and the over is 5-1 in ASU’s last six Saturday games. However, the under for the Sun Devils is on surges of 25-12 in Pac-10 play and 17-7 after a SU loss.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Oklahoma State (12-3, 4-4-1 ATS) at (21) Baylor (13-3, 4-4 ATS)
Oklahoma State guns for its eighth straight victory – and its first against a ranked opponent this season – when it heads south to Waco for a Big 12 clash with 21st-ranked Baylor.
The Cowboys kicked off the Big 12 season with last Saturday’s 72-61 rout as a seven-point home favorite. Oklahoma State has played just three lined games (2-0-1 ATS) during its seven-game winning streak, but six of the seven victories were by double digits. Also, the Cowboys are averaging 89.3 ppg during the winning run. On the downside for Oklahoma State, its only two games against ranked teams were back-to-back blowout losses to Gonzaga (83-71) and Michigan State (94-79) in a preseason tournament.
Baylor started the Big 12 season with a 73-61 home win over Texas Tech, coming up short as a 13-point favorite. Then on Wednesday the Bears went to Texas A&M and fell 84-73 as a 1½-point road chalk. Baylor has followed up a six-game winning streak by losing two of its last three (0-3 ATS).
The home team has won five straight in this rivalry, going 3-0 ATS in the last three. Last year, Baylor won 79-71 as a 7½-point favorite in Waco, then the Cowboys got revenge with a 93-83 victory as a one-point chalk in Stillwater, Okla., halting an 0-4 ATS slide in this series. Finally, the favorite is 5-2-1 ATS in the last eight clashes.
Oklahoma State has scored more than 70 points in 14 of their 15 games, reaching triple digits three times, and they rank fifth in the nation in scoring (85 ppg) and second in three-point shooting (42.2 percent). Like the Cowboys, the Bears have scored more than 70 points in all but one game, and they’re eighth nationally in scoring (82.2 ppg) and 13th in field-goal shooting (49.2 percent).
Oklahoma State is on ATS streaks of 8-1-1 in Big 12 play, 4-0-1 on Saturday and 5-2-1 after a spread-cover, but the Cowboys are 7-20-1 ATS in their last 28 on the road. Baylor is 4-1 ATS in its last five on Saturday but 1-4 ATS in its last five conference games.
The over is 5-0 in the last five in this series, and for the Bears, the over is on streaks of 20-6 overall, 9-4 at home, 35-16 in league play and 19-7 on Saturday. However, Oklahoma State has stayed low in four straight lined games overall, four of five in Big 12 play and five of seven on Saturday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Illinois (15-2, 9-5 ATS) at (7) Michigan State (14-2, 7-6 ATS)
Michigan State looks to remain perfect in Big Ten play and extend a 10-game overall winning streak when it hosts surging Illinois at the Breslin Events Center.
The Spartans built a big lead at Penn State on Wednesday, but had to hold on down the stretch, prevailing 78-73 but coming up just short as a 5½-point road chalk. Since suffering an ugly 98-75 loss to then-No. 1 North Carolina in Detroit, Michigan State has won 10 in a row (5-2-1 ATS), scoring at least 67 points in every game while topping 75 seven times. During the winning streak, Tom Izzo’s team has posted five consecutive blowout home wins, with an average victory margin of 22 ppg.
The Illini erased a one-point halftime deficit against Michigan on Wednesday in a big way, outscoring the Wolverines 36-20 over the final 20 minutes to post a 66-51 win and cover as a seven-point home favorite. Illinois has won nine of its last 10, the only blemish being a 10-point setback at Michigan, and the Illini are 3-1 SU and ATS in four games this year against Top 25 opponents.
Michigan State is 4-0 SU and 2-1-1 ATS in Big Ten action, while Illinois is 3-1 SU and ATS in league play.
The Spartans swept the season series last year, winning 51-41 as a nine-point home favorite and 59-51 as a two-point road chalk. Michigan State has won four of the last five SU and ATS after Illinois had gone 5-0 SU and ATS in the previous five. The SU winner has cashed in each of the last 10 meetings, and the favorite has gotten the money in each of the last four.
Illinois is on ATS streaks of 9-4 overall, 8-3 after a SU win, 4-1 on the road, 4-1 against winning teams and 6-0 on Saturday. Meanwhile, the Spartans are on pointspread runs of 4-2 overall, 4-2 in Big Ten play, 5-0 on Saturday and 5-2 against winning teams.
The last five meetings in this series have stayed under the total. Also, the under is on runs of 7-3 for the Spartans overall, 5-1 for the Spartans at home, 7-0 for the Illini on Saturday and 5-0 for the Illini against winning teams. However, Illinois has topped the total in four of its last five on the road.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
South Carolina (12-3, 4-6 ATS) at (24) Tennessee (10-5, 7-6 ATS)
Tennessee will attempt to halt a rare two-game home losing skid when it welcomes South Carolina to Thompson-Boling Arena for an SEC clash.
The Vols hosted Kentucky on Tuesday and couldn’t stop the Wildcats’ Jodie Meeks, who tallied a school-record 54 points in a 90-72 victory as a six-point road underdog. Tennessee has followed up a 37-game home winning streak with consecutive losses in Knoxville, the other being an 89-79 overtime setback to Gonzaga as a 3½-point chalk on Jan. 7. In between, Bruce Pearl’s team went to Georgia last Saturday and knocked off the Bulldogs 86-77, barely cashing as an 8½-point road favorite.
South Carolina saw its three-game winning streak stopped in Wednesday’s ugly 85-68 loss at LSU as a four-point underdog, matching Tennessee’s 1-1 SU and ATS record in SEC play. The Gamecocks have given up 84 points or more in three of their last five games, going 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS during this stretch. In its only two games against Top 25 opponents, South Carolina lost 98-87 at Clemson as a 2½-point home underdog and beat Baylor 85-84 as a 9½-point road underdog.
Tennessee went 3-0 (2-1 ATS) against the Gamecocks last year. During the regular season, the Vols rolled to a 24-point road win as a 6½-point favorite and a 33-point home victory as a 15-point chalk, but in the SEC tournament, South Carolina took Tennessee to the limit before falling 89-87 as a 12½-point underdog. The Vols are 7-2 SU in the last nine meetings, but the Gamecocks are 4-2 ATS in the last six, all as an underdog. In fact, the pup has cashed in seven of the last 10 series meetings.
Tennessee ranks sixth in the nation in scoring at 83.5 ppg despite shooting only 45.5 percent. The Vols have scored at least 72 points in every game this season, going for 80 or more eight times. On the defensive end, however, Tennessee is surrendering 76.1 ppg on 44.7 percent shooting, allowing 77 or more in six of its last eight outings. Meanwhile, the Gamecocks are putting up 80 ppg on 47.4 percent shooting, and they had scored at least 72 points in their first 13 games before being held to 68 in their first two SEC contests. South Carolina gives up 66.6 ppg on 41.1 percent shooting.
The Volunteers are 4-1 ATS in their last five after a non-cover, but only 2-5 ATS in their last seven against teams with a winning record. South Carolina is on ATS hot streaks of 36-17 on the road, 29-8 on the road versus teams with a winning home record, 4-1 after a SU defeat and 4-0 after a non-cover.
The over is on runs of 5-0 for Tennessee overall, 4-1 for Tennessee at home, 4-0 for Tennessee in SEC play, 5-0 for Tennessee on Saturday, 8-3 for South Carolina overall and 5-0 for South Carolina on the road.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SOUTH CAROLINA and OVER
(1) Pittsburgh (16-0, 7-4 ATS) at (20) Louisville (12-3, 8-7 ATS)
The day’s third and final matchup between ranked Big East teams comes from Freedom Hall, where Louisville will attempt to end top-ranked Pitt’s perfect season.
The Cardinals needed overtime to knock off No. 13 Notre Dame on Monday, outscoring the Irish 16-2 in the extra session on their way to an 87-73 victory as a 6½-point home favorite. Since a surprising 56-55 home loss to UNLV, Louisville has won four in a row (3-1 ATS), going 3-0 SU and ATS to start the Big East season.
Pitt shook off a sluggish first half against South Florida on Wednesday and kept its unbeaten season intact with a 75-62 victory, coming up short as a 20½-point home favorite. It was the third consecutive double-digit win for the Panthers and 14th in 16 games this season.
These teams met twice last season, and both were nail-biters. First, Louisville prevailed 75-73 as a one-point road underdog, then Pitt got revenge with a 76-66 overtime victory as a 5½-point underdog in the Big East tournament. Since Louisville joined the Big East, the squads have split their six meetings, with the Panthers going 4-2 ATS and the underdog going 4-2 ATS.
Pitt has the statistical edge on both ends of the court, scoring 77.5 ppg (47.5 percent) and giving up 58.7 ppg (38 percent), while Louisville puts up 75.4 (43.1 percent) and allows 60.7 ppg (38.6 percent). In Big East play, the Panthers are outscoring opponents by 14 ppg (78-64), and the Cardinals are outscoring conference foes by eight ppg (73-65).
Pitt is 5-0 in road/neutral site games this season (4-1 ATS), and Jamie Dixon’s troops beat the only ranked opponent they’ve faced this season, a 70-54 road win at Georgetown as a 3½-point underdog. The Cardinals are 9-1 at Freedom Hall (6-4 ATS), and their last two games – a one-point win at No. 18 Villanova and Monday’s victory over Notre Dame – were their first against Top 25 competition.
The Panthers are on positive pointspread runs of 6-1 on the road, 5-2 in Big East play, 4-1 on Saturday, 5-2 versus winning teams and 5-0 after a non-cover. Louisville is 25-12-1 ATS in its last 38 games overall, 35-16-2 ATS in its last 53 Big East battles and 8-3 ATS in its last 11 on Saturday, but the Cardinals have failed to cover in five of their last seven at home.
The over is 16-7 in Pitt’s last 23 games overall and 13-3 in its last 16 Big East games, but Louisville is on under streaks of 17-7-1 at home and 21-9-1 after a SU win. Finally, the under hit in the first four meetings in this rivalry, but the over was the play in both of last year’s matchups.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PITT
Ohio State (12-3, 6-5 ATS) at (25) Michigan (13-4, 8-4 ATS)
Fresh off a blowout home win over Indiana, Ohio State now makes the trek to Ann Arbor for a battle archrival with Michigan.
The Buckeyes pounded the undermanned Hoosiers on Tuesday, rolling to a 77-53 victory as a 16-point home favorite to end a two-game Big Ten losing skid. Since starting the season 9-0, Ohio State has split its last six contests (2-3 ATS in lined games). During this six-game stretch, Thad Matta’s club is 2-2 SU and ATS in conference play, but 0-2 (1-1 ATS) on the road.
Ohio State won its first two games against Top 25 foes (five-point wins over Miami, Fla., and Notre Dame), but it is 0-2 (1-1 ATS) against ranked Big Ten foes (Michigan State and Minnesota).
Michigan got steamrolled in the second half at Illinois on Wednesday, watching a 31-30 halftime lead turn into a 66-51 loss, failing to cover as a seven-point underdog. The Wolverines are 3-2 (2-3 ATS) in conference action, alternating spread-covers in the five contests, but they’re 2-0 SU and ATS in Big Ten home games. For the season, Michigan is 10-1 SU and 6-1 ATS at Crisler Arena.
The Wolverines ended a seven-game losing skid to their rivals with last year’s 80-70 upset home victory over Ohio State as a five-point underdog. In fact, Michigan cashed in both meetings last year after going 0-5-1 ATS versus the Buckeyes in the previous six matchups.
Ohio State has failed to cash in four of its last five games against winning teams, but otherwise the Buckeyes are on pointspread streaks of 11-5 overall, 6-1 after a spread-cover and 9-4 after an outright victory. Michigan is 4-1 ATS in its last five on Saturday and 6-2 ATS in its last eight after either a SU loss or a non-cover, but it has failed to cash in seven of its last 10 league games.
The under is on runs of 9-4 for Ohio State on the road, 39-17-1 for Ohio State on Saturday, 12-4 for Michigan in Big Ten play, 7-1 for Michigan after an ATS setback and 6-2 for Michigan after a SU loss. However, the over is 6-2 in the Wolverines’ last eight overall and 5-1 in their last six at Crisler Arena. Finally, the total has alternated in the last 10 series meetings, with the most recent clash going over the posted price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
(22) California (15-2, 11-3 ATS) at Stanford (11-3, 10-3 ATS)
Cal puts its nine-game winning streak on the line when it makes the short jaunt to Maples Pavilion in Palo Alto, Calif., for the first meeting of the season against hated rival Stanford.
The Golden Bears have been idle since last Saturday’s thrilling 88-85 triple-overtime win at Washington as a six-point road underdog, which came two days after a 57-50 win at Washington State as a three-point pup. Not only has Cal won nine in a row – scoring at least 72 points in seven of the contests – it has gone 8-0 ATS in lined action. In starting the Pac-10 season 4-0 SU and ATS, the Bears are averaging 73.8 ppg and allowing 65.3 ppg.
Stanford went 10-0 SU and 7-2 ATS in non-conference play, but the Cardinal have lost three of their first four Pac-10 contests, including back-to-back one-point losses at Washington (84-83) and Washington State (55-54) last weekend. On the bright side, since a horrific 90-60 home loss to Arizona State as a one-point favorite in its conference debut, Stanford has cashed in its last three games.
The Cardinal have won eight of the last 10 series meetings, including the last three in a row, and they’re 7-2 ATS in the last nine clashes. Last year in Palo Alto, Stanford beat the Bears 79-69, coming up short as a 10½-point home chalk, as Cal improved to 3-2 ATS in its last five trips to Maples Pavilion, including 2-0 ATS in the last two. In fact, the visitor has cashed in each of the last five series meetings.
In addition to their current 8-0 ATS run, the Bears are on positive pointspread streaks of 12-5 on the road and 5-1 on Saturday. Stanford is on ATS upticks of 6-1 overall, 10-3 at home, 6-1 in Pac-10 play and 8-1 versus winning teams.
This has been an “under” series in recent years, with 10 of the last 14 meetings overall and six of the last eight at Stanford staying low, but the last three in a row have gone over the posted price. Also, most recently, the over is on streaks of 18-8 for Stanford overall, 12-3 for Stanford in Pac-10 play, 7-3 for Stanford on Saturday, 22-10 for Cal overall, 20-8 for Cal on the highway, 20-6 for Cal in conference action and 10-2 for Cal on Saturday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Miami, Fla. (13-3, 6-5 ATS) at (5) North Carolina (15-2, 7-8 ATS)
With its first ACC victory finally out of the way, North Carolina returns home for a conference battle against streaking Miami, which has won six in a row.
The Tar Heels won their first 14 games, all in non-league action, then started the ACC season with consecutive upset losses to Boston College (85-78 as a 23-point home favorite) and Wake Forest (92-89 as a 6½-point home chalk). But they went to Virginia on Thursday and took their frustrations out on the Cavaliers, rolling to an 83-61 win as a 16-point road chalk. It was the 15th time in 17 games that North Carolina had scored at least 83 points.
Miami started ACC play earlier than most squads, getting demolished 91-72 against Clemson as a three-point home favorite on Dec. 21. However, since then, the Hurricanes have ripped off six consecutive wins (2-2 ATS), including a pair of conference victories over Boston College (77-71 as a 2½-point road underdog) and Maryland (62-60 as a 7½-point home chalk). The ‘Canes were held to a season-low point total in Wednesday’s victory over the Terrapins, ending a string of nine straight games scoring at least 70 points.
North Carolina has won three in row (SU and ATS) and five of the last six (4-2 ATS) in this series. In last year’s lone meeting, the Tar Heels went to South Beach and posted a 98-82 victory as an eight-point road favorite. The visitor has cashed in four of the last five head-to-head matchups.
The Tar Heels are second in the nation in scoring (93.6 ppg) and 11th in field-goal offense (49.2 percent), and while they give up 70.4 ppg, they hold the opposition to only 39.5 percent shooting overall and 31.3 percent from three-point range, Miami is putting up 75.7 ppg on just 43.2 percent shooting, but the ‘Canes surrender only 61.8 ppg (37.2 percent). Also, Miami holds opponents to 28.1 percent shooting from long range, which ranks eighth nationally.
Miami is on pointspread runs of 4-1 on the road, 7-1-3 on Saturday, 11-1-2 after an ATS setback and 17-8-2 when facing a team with a winning percentage higher than .600. Meanwhile, despite cashing at Virginia on Thursday, the Tar Heels are mired in ATS slumps of 1-4 at home, 1-5 in ACC play, 1-6 after an outright win and 0-4 on Saturday.
For the Hurricanes, the over is on runs of 8-2 on Saturday, 4-0 against winning teams and 14-4 after a non-cover. For UNC, the over is on runs of 4-1 at home and 4-1 after a spread-cover. Finally, the last four meetings in this rivalry have hurdled the posted price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Gina
Saturday January 17th, 9:00 p.m. est.
Utah Jazz (24-16) at Dallas Mavericks (22-17)
The Jazz beat the Mavericks in the last meeting at home, 97-88 and did it without Carlos Boozer in the lineup. Take the points. The struggling Mavericks have lost five straight games and are a nasty 2-9 ATS in their last 11 home games.
Utah Jazz +4½
Saturday January 17th, 9:00 p.m. est.
Utah Jazz (24-16) at Dallas Mavericks (22-17)
The Jazz beat the Mavericks in the last meeting at home, 97-88 and did it without Carlos Boozer in the lineup. Take the points. The struggling Mavericks have lost five straight games and are a nasty 2-9 ATS in their last 11 home games.
Utah Jazz +4½
Scott Ferrall (free picks)
SATURDAY'S COLLEGE RACK LOCKS BEST BETS IN ( )
FERRALL HOT AS EVER PICKING NCAA HOOP WINNERS ATS
DRAKE -6 to Northern Iowa (5)
NC ST -5 to Georgia Tech (8)
SYRACUSE -4 to ND (2)
SOUTH FLORIDA +17 from WVU (11)
GEORGETOWN +8.5 from DUKE (7)
OKLAHOMA ST +8 from Baylor (6)
IOWA ST +15 from Mizzou (4)
TEXAS A&M +3 from Oklahoma (3)
ARKANSAS +10 from Florida (9)
BUTLER -2 to Illinois Chicago (1)
CINCY (PK) over DePaul (10)
SATURDAY'S COLLEGE RACK LOCKS BEST BETS IN ( )
FERRALL HOT AS EVER PICKING NCAA HOOP WINNERS ATS
DRAKE -6 to Northern Iowa (5)
NC ST -5 to Georgia Tech (8)
SYRACUSE -4 to ND (2)
SOUTH FLORIDA +17 from WVU (11)
GEORGETOWN +8.5 from DUKE (7)
OKLAHOMA ST +8 from Baylor (6)
IOWA ST +15 from Mizzou (4)
TEXAS A&M +3 from Oklahoma (3)
ARKANSAS +10 from Florida (9)
BUTLER -2 to Illinois Chicago (1)
CINCY (PK) over DePaul (10)
GMC-Washington State (HUGE), Clemson (HUGE), UCLA (reg), Texas (reg)
