GOLDSHEET
NEW ORLEANS 31 - Arizona 30—Can New Orleans regain the quick-striking,
dominating form that paced the Saints to a 6-0 pointspread start and then a 13-
0 SU mark that had their fans thinking the formerly unthinkable—a perfect season
and Super Bowl championship?
History has shown that regaining such lost momentum can be difficult. And
such a recovery might be even more difficult for a New Orleans’ team that
dropped its last three games (full effort or not) and hasn’t won since two weeks
before Christmas! And let’s not forget that at least two N.O. victories (46-34 at
Miami & 33-30 in OT at Washington) came about in quite improbable fashion.
QB Drew Brees ended with an NFL-record 70.6 completion percentage, and
Sean Payton’s diverse offense led the league in scoring and yards. But, partly
due to an accumulation of injuries, the Saints ended the season 2-8 vs. the
spread their last 10 games. New Orleans covered only 2 of its last 9 games when
favored, and only 1 of its last 5 games at home.
There is good news, however, with formerly wounded players such as S Darren
Sharper, DT Sedrick Ellis, LBs Jonathan Vilma & Scott Shanle, and TE Jeremy
Shockey all ready to return after being held out of the regular-season finale.
Starting CB Jabari Greer’s groin survived a test in that Game 16 at Carolina.
Thus, with Arizona traveling and on a short turnaround after a home game last
Sunday, Payton & Brees have a chance to re-start the Saints’ engine.
Whether they can distance themselves from the tested and proven Cardinals
(6-2 SU away TY) is another matter. Arizona has covered all five of its
postseason games the last two years, going 4-1 SU, with its only loss by a matter
of one inch and 35 seconds in LY’s Super Bowl in Tampa vs. the Steelers. Kurt
Warner has stayed healthy, hitting an uncanny 29 of 33 for 5 TDs in last week’s
OT victory vs. Green Bay and a combined 72% for 1526 yards with 16 TDs vs.
only 3 ints. in the playoffs the L2Ys. Rookie Beanie Wells (91 YR vs. the Packers)
has boosted the Cards’ ground game. WRs Steve Breaston & Early Doucet (LSU
product) filled in well for injured Anquan Boldin last week with 13 recs. for
202 yards. Both teams have been vulnerable to the pass TY, with Arizona
finishing 23rd and New Orleans 26th. If Arizona “brings it” for this game, as
it has for its last five postseason contests for the underrated Ken
Whisenhunt, it’s a shooting match.
(07-NEW ORLEANS -3' 31-24...SR: Arizona 13-12)
BALTIMORE (10-7) at INDIANAPOLIS (14-2)
Saturday night, January 16, 2010
TEAM SUR PSR PF PA YR YP T-R-P YR YP T-R-P TO DIFF OPR
Baltimore 10-7 9-8 25 16 144 203 51-26-21 92 203 29-8-19 +12 4.3 4.7
Indianapolis 14-2 10-6 26 19 81 282 53-16-34 127 213 31-10-19 +1 3.7 4.6
*INDIANAPOLIS 25 - Baltimore 24—Just curious, but we wonder if any fans of
the “old Colts” from Baltimore might be a little torn in their allegiance this week.
Regardless, they’ve certainly had a chance to test their loyalties in recent years,
when the Indy version of their formerly beloved Colts and their Inner Harbor
replacements, the Ravens, have gotten together. In fact, these two teams have
met every season since 2004, with all six encounters won and covered by Peyton
Manning’s Indy. Although the Colts cut it pretty close this season when
squeezing out a 17-15 win at M&T Bank Stadium back on November 22, barely
covering as a 1-point favorite. Though kept out of the end zone by the Indy
defense, Baltimore stayed close that cloudy afternoon, thanks to five Billy Cundiff
FGs, and was in position to win with another Cundiff kick late in 4th Q when QB
Joe Flacco was picked off by Colt LB Gary Brackett deep in Indy territory.
Given that Manning and the Colts’ attack are no mystery to the Ravens, we see
no reason why Baltimore can’t make the rematch just as compelling and
competitive as the regular-season meeting. After all, Baltimore is certainly
playoff-tested lately, having won 3 of 4 postseason road games the last two
seasons after last week’s romp at New England. Although that game at
Foxborough became distorted in the early going, Flacco (at QB for all of
Baltimore’s playoff successes the past two seasons) is certainly capable of
producing more than the 4 completions he managed while protecting the lead
against the Patriots. The recent revival of RB Willis McGahee provides a lethal
1-2 punch with backfield mate Ray Rice, who rambled for 159 YR at Gillette
Stadium; indeed, both McGahee and Rice have busted long TD runs the past two
weeks. While Indy’s defense has navigated through a series of key injuries this
season, it was hardly dominating vs. the run, ranking a modest 24th and allowing
4.3 ypc. And a credible ground diversion importantly takes pressure off Flacco.
Whatever one’s opinion of the Colts’ decision to rest key performers in their last
two games and effectively self-sabotage their chances of a 16-0 regular season,
rest assured that Indy and Manning haven’t forgotten how to win. But Manning did
not have an easy time when throwing two picks in that narrow regular-season
escape at Baltimore, and the Raven “D” is near full strength with big-play S Ed
Reed back in the lineup. Expect playoff-tested and always-competitive Baltimore
to stay in character this week.
(09-Indy 17-BALT. 15...20-20 B.31/98 I.25/76 I.22/31/2/299 B.23/35/1/256 I.1 B.1)
(08-INDY 31-Balt. 3...I.17-16 I.30/76 B.19/51 I.19/28/0/258 B.28/38/3/209 I.0 B.2)
(09-Indianapolis -1 17-15; 08-INDIANAPOLIS -4 31-3...SR: Indianapolis 8-2)