Rocketman Sports
Tennessee @ Florida 3:30 PM EST
Play On: 3* (#150) Florida -29 1/2
Tennessee is 1-1 on the season while Florida is 2-0 this year. Florida is 20-6 ATS last 3 years in all games. Florida is 13-4 ATS last 3 years against conference opponents. Florida is 19-5 ATS on Saturdays last 3 years. Florida is 19-6 ATS last 3 years when playing on grass. Florida is 19-6 ATS last 3 years as a favorite. Florida is 10-3 ATS at home the past 3 years. Florida is averaging 59 points per game overall this year and allowing only 4.5 points per game this season. Florida beat Tennessee at home in 2007 59-20 as only 6 1/2 point favorites. Volunteers are 11-23 ATS in their last 34 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. Gators are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater. Gators are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 conference games. We'll play Florida for 3 units today!
Tennessee @ Florida 3:30 PM EST
Play On: 3* (#150) Florida -29 1/2
Tennessee is 1-1 on the season while Florida is 2-0 this year. Florida is 20-6 ATS last 3 years in all games. Florida is 13-4 ATS last 3 years against conference opponents. Florida is 19-5 ATS on Saturdays last 3 years. Florida is 19-6 ATS last 3 years when playing on grass. Florida is 19-6 ATS last 3 years as a favorite. Florida is 10-3 ATS at home the past 3 years. Florida is averaging 59 points per game overall this year and allowing only 4.5 points per game this season. Florida beat Tennessee at home in 2007 59-20 as only 6 1/2 point favorites. Volunteers are 11-23 ATS in their last 34 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. Gators are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater. Gators are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 conference games. We'll play Florida for 3 units today!
Tom Freese
10* CFB BLOWOUT WINNER
Kansas is in a 28-7 ATS Super System that says to on favorites of 21.5 to 31 points if they out gained their last opponent by 1.2 to 2 yards per play vs. a team that averages 0.6 yards per play. The Jayhawks are 6-0 ATS their last 6 September games. Duke is 4-9 ATS their last 13 games after allowing less than 20 points in their last game. Despite their win over lowly Army the Blue Devils were out gained on the playing field by 119 yards. Duke is 2-6 ATS as a underdog of 10.5 points or higher and they are 7-16 ATS after gaining less than 170 yards passing in the last game. 10* PLAY ON KANSAS -
10* CFB UNDERDOG WINNER
Navy is 11-2 ATS as road dogs of 7.5 to 14 points and they are 30-10 ATS off a home win. The Midshipmen are 7-3 ATS there last 10 games vs. a team with a winning home record and they are 4-0 ATS their last 4 September games. Pittsburgh is 1-7 ATS their last 8 games as home favorites and they are 5-12 ATS off a win by 20 or more points. The Panthers are 1-5 ATS their last 6 September games and they are 4-11 ATS their last 15 games as favorites. 10* PLAY ON NAVY +
10* "NO BRAINER" SIDE WINNER
Texas is in a 33-11 ATS Super System that says to Play On home favorites in the first month of the season after closing out last year with 4 or more straight wins if the had a winning record. The Longhorns have been waiting for this game for a long time after their loss to the Red Raiders last year. Texas Tech is 1-4 ATS their last 5 visits to Austin and they are 3-8-1 ATS their last 12 games following an ATS win. The Red Raiders are walking into a hornets nest on Saturday night. 10* "NO BRAINER" PLAY ON TEXAS -
10* CFB BLOWOUT WINNER
Kansas is in a 28-7 ATS Super System that says to on favorites of 21.5 to 31 points if they out gained their last opponent by 1.2 to 2 yards per play vs. a team that averages 0.6 yards per play. The Jayhawks are 6-0 ATS their last 6 September games. Duke is 4-9 ATS their last 13 games after allowing less than 20 points in their last game. Despite their win over lowly Army the Blue Devils were out gained on the playing field by 119 yards. Duke is 2-6 ATS as a underdog of 10.5 points or higher and they are 7-16 ATS after gaining less than 170 yards passing in the last game. 10* PLAY ON KANSAS -
10* CFB UNDERDOG WINNER
Navy is 11-2 ATS as road dogs of 7.5 to 14 points and they are 30-10 ATS off a home win. The Midshipmen are 7-3 ATS there last 10 games vs. a team with a winning home record and they are 4-0 ATS their last 4 September games. Pittsburgh is 1-7 ATS their last 8 games as home favorites and they are 5-12 ATS off a win by 20 or more points. The Panthers are 1-5 ATS their last 6 September games and they are 4-11 ATS their last 15 games as favorites. 10* PLAY ON NAVY +
10* "NO BRAINER" SIDE WINNER
Texas is in a 33-11 ATS Super System that says to Play On home favorites in the first month of the season after closing out last year with 4 or more straight wins if the had a winning record. The Longhorns have been waiting for this game for a long time after their loss to the Red Raiders last year. Texas Tech is 1-4 ATS their last 5 visits to Austin and they are 3-8-1 ATS their last 12 games following an ATS win. The Red Raiders are walking into a hornets nest on Saturday night. 10* "NO BRAINER" PLAY ON TEXAS -
Mike Handzelek
Boston College vs. Clemson
Play Clemson Play -6.5
Don't think this Clemson team is taking last Thursday's loss lying down. They will use their extra prep time to stymie the rookies @ QB for Boston College (Shinskie & Tuggle) and chew up a lot of clock with a beefcake offensive line that can blow you off the line of scrimmage. The Tigers will remember getting knocked out of the ACC Championship 2 years ago @ Death Valley (Clemson Memorial Stadium) by Boston College and use it for that intangible edge. Kyle Parker should be able to burn the BC defenders deep with sudden impact. Head Coach Frank Spaziani makes his rookie coaching debut for the Eagles. Dabo Swinney will have his troops ready with QB Parker having a 5-2 ratio, RB Spiller has rushed for 99 yards & WR Ford having 8 receptions good for a 22.4 yard average for the Tigers. This is a very balanced attack with strong 2nd half finishing power. Take the Tigers ATS for $200.
Ohio State vs. Toledo
Play: Toledo +20.5
This Buckeyes' team is a talented bunch but Illinois still remains on deck for the Big Ten opener. The problem exists with taking on a very experienced Toledo club that can move the ball (1,117 yards thus far this year). During the past 6 seasons, the Rockets have disposed of Pitt, Kansas and Iowa State @ home and upset Colorado & Michigan on the road. Wells is gone from last year's squad and the Buckeyes lack a true playmaker this season. Putting everything on Terrell Pryor's shoulders only takes you so far especially after a deflating national TV loss to USC. Rockets Head Coach Tim Beckman has this team buzzin' after a 54-38 road win versus Colorado. Remember Beckman was Ohio State's defensive backs coach a few years back and served under Tressel. Rockets QB Opelt has a nice 7/2 TD/INT ratio but his defense has kicked nicely with 6 INT's thus far for a +4. I don't think Ohio State is going to have enough for a blowout on the neutral surface @ Tressel's hometown in Cleveland. Take the Toledo Rockets but of course buy to + 21 1/2 to get on the right side of a key number.
Cincinnati U vs. Oregon State
Play Oregon State +1
Oregon State won't forget being literally embarrassed turning it over 7 times in a 34-3 loss to Cincinnati 2 years back @ Nippert Stadium. Mike Riley will have his troops highly motivated in their home venue @ Reser Stadium. This is the same team that also upset the USC Trojans twice in a row in Corvalis. Jaquizz Rodgers is still the ticket (6.7 yards a rush, 3 TD's, almost 100 yds in receptions) and will be up against a Bearcat squad that almost lost every defensive starter from last year. QB Canfield is completing 79% of his passes and has a good 3/0 TD/INT ratio to add to the Beaver cause. For Brian Kelly & his Bearcats, I'm afraid hiring a new defensive coordinator plus switching to a new 3-4 alignment will haunt them on this cross-country trip. They're not playing Rutgers or SE Missouri State this week and reality sets in here. In the meat and potatoes of our extensive homework, Cincinnati has lost their last 6 by an average of 21 points to non-conference BCS schools when travelling. I'm afraid Pike's arm won't be enough to get the "W" in Beaverland Saturday night. Whack the Beavers as our Leroy's Contest Revenge Play for $200.
Nevada vs. Colorado State
Play: Nevada -150
Colorado State may have had the upper hand winning 8 of 9 in this series but they're not playing a familiar Colorado team this week. They're facing a Nevada squad that won't be playing from behind like in Week 1 @ Notre Dame. The Wolfpack have used their off week wisely to prepare for a master ground assault gameplan featuring RB Tuau & dual-threat QB Kaepernick. Remember Colorado State lost a big chunk from their front seven and will be hard pressed to stop Nevada's diversified offensive weapons with 2 weeks prep time this afternoon @ Hughes Stadium. Raising the red flag for us is Colorado State's big struggle with Weber State in barely pulling it out 24-23 last week @ home in Fort Collins. Steve Fairchild has done a nice job since arriving, but catching a Nevada team off a humiliating loss to Notre Dame puts him at a big disadvantage. The Rams also has a big Mountain West opener with Brigham Young on deck. Our Wild & Wooly West Coast Brawler Play is to take the Nevada Wolfpack for $200 on the ML for the win.
Boston College vs. Clemson
Play Clemson Play -6.5
Don't think this Clemson team is taking last Thursday's loss lying down. They will use their extra prep time to stymie the rookies @ QB for Boston College (Shinskie & Tuggle) and chew up a lot of clock with a beefcake offensive line that can blow you off the line of scrimmage. The Tigers will remember getting knocked out of the ACC Championship 2 years ago @ Death Valley (Clemson Memorial Stadium) by Boston College and use it for that intangible edge. Kyle Parker should be able to burn the BC defenders deep with sudden impact. Head Coach Frank Spaziani makes his rookie coaching debut for the Eagles. Dabo Swinney will have his troops ready with QB Parker having a 5-2 ratio, RB Spiller has rushed for 99 yards & WR Ford having 8 receptions good for a 22.4 yard average for the Tigers. This is a very balanced attack with strong 2nd half finishing power. Take the Tigers ATS for $200.
Ohio State vs. Toledo
Play: Toledo +20.5
This Buckeyes' team is a talented bunch but Illinois still remains on deck for the Big Ten opener. The problem exists with taking on a very experienced Toledo club that can move the ball (1,117 yards thus far this year). During the past 6 seasons, the Rockets have disposed of Pitt, Kansas and Iowa State @ home and upset Colorado & Michigan on the road. Wells is gone from last year's squad and the Buckeyes lack a true playmaker this season. Putting everything on Terrell Pryor's shoulders only takes you so far especially after a deflating national TV loss to USC. Rockets Head Coach Tim Beckman has this team buzzin' after a 54-38 road win versus Colorado. Remember Beckman was Ohio State's defensive backs coach a few years back and served under Tressel. Rockets QB Opelt has a nice 7/2 TD/INT ratio but his defense has kicked nicely with 6 INT's thus far for a +4. I don't think Ohio State is going to have enough for a blowout on the neutral surface @ Tressel's hometown in Cleveland. Take the Toledo Rockets but of course buy to + 21 1/2 to get on the right side of a key number.
Cincinnati U vs. Oregon State
Play Oregon State +1
Oregon State won't forget being literally embarrassed turning it over 7 times in a 34-3 loss to Cincinnati 2 years back @ Nippert Stadium. Mike Riley will have his troops highly motivated in their home venue @ Reser Stadium. This is the same team that also upset the USC Trojans twice in a row in Corvalis. Jaquizz Rodgers is still the ticket (6.7 yards a rush, 3 TD's, almost 100 yds in receptions) and will be up against a Bearcat squad that almost lost every defensive starter from last year. QB Canfield is completing 79% of his passes and has a good 3/0 TD/INT ratio to add to the Beaver cause. For Brian Kelly & his Bearcats, I'm afraid hiring a new defensive coordinator plus switching to a new 3-4 alignment will haunt them on this cross-country trip. They're not playing Rutgers or SE Missouri State this week and reality sets in here. In the meat and potatoes of our extensive homework, Cincinnati has lost their last 6 by an average of 21 points to non-conference BCS schools when travelling. I'm afraid Pike's arm won't be enough to get the "W" in Beaverland Saturday night. Whack the Beavers as our Leroy's Contest Revenge Play for $200.
Nevada vs. Colorado State
Play: Nevada -150
Colorado State may have had the upper hand winning 8 of 9 in this series but they're not playing a familiar Colorado team this week. They're facing a Nevada squad that won't be playing from behind like in Week 1 @ Notre Dame. The Wolfpack have used their off week wisely to prepare for a master ground assault gameplan featuring RB Tuau & dual-threat QB Kaepernick. Remember Colorado State lost a big chunk from their front seven and will be hard pressed to stop Nevada's diversified offensive weapons with 2 weeks prep time this afternoon @ Hughes Stadium. Raising the red flag for us is Colorado State's big struggle with Weber State in barely pulling it out 24-23 last week @ home in Fort Collins. Steve Fairchild has done a nice job since arriving, but catching a Nevada team off a humiliating loss to Notre Dame puts him at a big disadvantage. The Rams also has a big Mountain West opener with Brigham Young on deck. Our Wild & Wooly West Coast Brawler Play is to take the Nevada Wolfpack for $200 on the ML for the win.
BRYAN LEONARD
MIDWEST GRUDGE MATCH
Michigan State at Notre Dame
Michigan State enters this game off a tough last second home defeat to Central Michigan. But word out of East Lansing was that the Spartans were looking past the Chippewas and towards this matchup. Considering that the Spartans had won their last 14 home meetings against the MAC by an average of 28 points we can certainly see why they took Central Michigan lightly. Michigan State has won in South Bend each of the past six meetings posting a perfect 6-0 spread mark. They covered the spread in those games by a combined 84 points! Since Mark Dantonio has come to East Lansing the Spartans have lost at home four times. After the previous three home losses Michigan State won and covered each game, doing so by a combined 52 1/2 points against the spread.
The Irish continue to be a play against as the national media continue to promote a team that hasn't won consistently since 2006. Notre Dame has lost 2 of their last 3 home games in straight up fashion and are on an 8-15 spread run at home. Charlie Weis is only 8-13 ATS in the role of home favorite and this team needs to win the turnover battle to have any chance of covering this spread. In their last six home games the Irish are 4-2 straight up, but they own a whopping +17 turnover advantage in those games. If you are averaging a three turnover advantage per game playing at home and you are just 4-2 straight up and against the spread you are a vastly overrated football team. While we like the way the offense is playing this year the defense continues to underproduce. Last week when facing a freshman quarterback with a scatter arm they still permitted 6.1 yards per play. We don't expect the stop unit to be any better here as they go from facing "The Pistol" offense against Nevada, to the spread offense of Michigan, to a traditional offense of Michigan State this week. Last year the Spartans ran all over this smallish Irish stop unit outgaining Notre Dame on the ground 203-16.
The Spartans have a solid coaching advantage here to go along with the better defense. Coach Dantonio has cashed 7 of his 10 road games since taking over the job. We look for the Spartans to keep this close throughout and another outright road victory would not be a surprise.
PLAY MICHIGAN STATE
MIDWEST GRUDGE MATCH
Michigan State at Notre Dame
Michigan State enters this game off a tough last second home defeat to Central Michigan. But word out of East Lansing was that the Spartans were looking past the Chippewas and towards this matchup. Considering that the Spartans had won their last 14 home meetings against the MAC by an average of 28 points we can certainly see why they took Central Michigan lightly. Michigan State has won in South Bend each of the past six meetings posting a perfect 6-0 spread mark. They covered the spread in those games by a combined 84 points! Since Mark Dantonio has come to East Lansing the Spartans have lost at home four times. After the previous three home losses Michigan State won and covered each game, doing so by a combined 52 1/2 points against the spread.
The Irish continue to be a play against as the national media continue to promote a team that hasn't won consistently since 2006. Notre Dame has lost 2 of their last 3 home games in straight up fashion and are on an 8-15 spread run at home. Charlie Weis is only 8-13 ATS in the role of home favorite and this team needs to win the turnover battle to have any chance of covering this spread. In their last six home games the Irish are 4-2 straight up, but they own a whopping +17 turnover advantage in those games. If you are averaging a three turnover advantage per game playing at home and you are just 4-2 straight up and against the spread you are a vastly overrated football team. While we like the way the offense is playing this year the defense continues to underproduce. Last week when facing a freshman quarterback with a scatter arm they still permitted 6.1 yards per play. We don't expect the stop unit to be any better here as they go from facing "The Pistol" offense against Nevada, to the spread offense of Michigan, to a traditional offense of Michigan State this week. Last year the Spartans ran all over this smallish Irish stop unit outgaining Notre Dame on the ground 203-16.
The Spartans have a solid coaching advantage here to go along with the better defense. Coach Dantonio has cashed 7 of his 10 road games since taking over the job. We look for the Spartans to keep this close throughout and another outright road victory would not be a surprise.
PLAY MICHIGAN STATE
Leroy's College Challenge
<TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%"><TBODY><TR vAlign=bottom><TD height=40>Leroy's College Challenge Contest</TD><TD align=right></TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2><HR class=page_title_pin SIZE=1></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Top 7 Consensus Picks
Week 3
1) Auburn -6.5 vs. West Virginia
2) BYU -7.5 vs. Florida State
3) Nevada -2.5 at Colorado State
4) Oklahoma -16.5 vs. Tulsa
5) Kansas -22.5 vs. Duke
6) Cincinnati -1.5 at Oregon State
7) Clemson -6.5 vs. Boston College
<TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%"><TBODY></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD class=sportPicksBgL1><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD class="yeallowBg2 sportPicksBorderR2 fourleft" colSpan=4>Weekly and Overall Consensus Records</TD></TR><TR class="table_title sportPicksBg"><TD class="sportPicksBorderL fourleft">
</TD></TR><TR class=notwhite><TD class="sportPicksBorderL2 fourleft"><CENTER>1</CENTER></TD><TD class="sportPicksBorderL2 fourleft"><CENTER>1-6</CENTER></TD><TD class="sportPicksBorderL2 fourleft"><CENTER><CENTER>1-6</CENTER></CENTER></TD><TD class="sportPicksBorderL2 fourleft"><CENTER><CENTER>14%</CENTER></CENTER></TD></TR><TR class=tanbg><TD class="sportPicksBorderL2 fourleft"><CENTER>2</CENTER></TD><TD class="sportPicksBorderL2 fourleft"><CENTER><CENTER>3-4</CENTER></CENTER></TD><TD class="sportPicksBorderL2 fourleft"><CENTER><CENTER>4-10</CENTER></CENTER></TD><TD class="sportPicksBorderL2 fourleft"><CENTER><CENTER>29%</CENTER></CENTER></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%"><TBODY><TR vAlign=bottom><TD height=40>Leroy's College Challenge Contest</TD><TD align=right></TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2><HR class=page_title_pin SIZE=1></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Top 7 Consensus Picks
Week 3
1) Auburn -6.5 vs. West Virginia
2) BYU -7.5 vs. Florida State
3) Nevada -2.5 at Colorado State
4) Oklahoma -16.5 vs. Tulsa
5) Kansas -22.5 vs. Duke
6) Cincinnati -1.5 at Oregon State
7) Clemson -6.5 vs. Boston College
<TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%"><TBODY></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD class=sportPicksBgL1><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD class="yeallowBg2 sportPicksBorderR2 fourleft" colSpan=4>Weekly and Overall Consensus Records</TD></TR><TR class="table_title sportPicksBg"><TD class="sportPicksBorderL fourleft">
Week
</TD><TD class="sportPicksBorderL fourleft">Consensus Record
</TD><TD class="sportPicksBorderL fourleft">Overall
</TD><TD class="sportPicksBorderL fourleft">Percentage</TD></TR><TR class=notwhite><TD class="sportPicksBorderL2 fourleft"><CENTER>1</CENTER></TD><TD class="sportPicksBorderL2 fourleft"><CENTER>1-6</CENTER></TD><TD class="sportPicksBorderL2 fourleft"><CENTER><CENTER>1-6</CENTER></CENTER></TD><TD class="sportPicksBorderL2 fourleft"><CENTER><CENTER>14%</CENTER></CENTER></TD></TR><TR class=tanbg><TD class="sportPicksBorderL2 fourleft"><CENTER>2</CENTER></TD><TD class="sportPicksBorderL2 fourleft"><CENTER><CENTER>3-4</CENTER></CENTER></TD><TD class="sportPicksBorderL2 fourleft"><CENTER><CENTER>4-10</CENTER></CENTER></TD><TD class="sportPicksBorderL2 fourleft"><CENTER><CENTER>29%</CENTER></CENTER></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Flag this messageVIP E-MAIL from The Swami (Donn Wagner)Saturday, September 19, 2009 10:37 AM
From: TheSwami
Good morning
Unfortunately the flu bug hit The Swami yesterday so I will not be able to present you with the normal format of information.
That said I do want to share with you a few plays.
Let's try to add to our nice (4-0) start for the 2009 football season with more official VIP-E-MAIL football selections for you.
SEPTEMBER 19 and 20
This week I want to share with you Larry Norris (The Cardinal) likes
***Purdue-N ILL game to go over 53.5
this is his second Double-Ringer play of the day. It kicks off at noon EST.
Right now he is also selling his Louisville-Kentucky play on the 900 system 1-900-287-5050 extension 7. This game also goes at noon EST. He is (14-4) when these two teams play each other. He specializes on both of these teams. He is connected to both programs and always seems to know the inside skinny in this rivalry.
The 70% Computer Play has a smart college total for us this week
***Play Oklahoma (under) as long the is 56.5 or more.
This system is now produced a mark of 143-82 since I have followed it. That is 52.2 net winners since 1998.
Swami's Inside Notes:
NOTE ONE: 15 players for Penn State have the flu including several key starters...If PSU was playing a team that was close to or equal in talent this would be a huge factor. Being a 30-point favorite over a team that has not presented the Nittany Lions with much problems in recent years this is only a slight factor, but a factor never the less. I would not lay the 30 points today knowing this.
NOTE TWO: AZ State vs UL-Monroe total has moved 10 points in 5 days. It opened at 59 and is now 49. I played AZ State at 54 and 51. Is it still the right side to play the under at 49?.....probably not. I would look for the line to maybe reverse its movement as wise guys pay back some action to hedge their initial wagers. If this happens and the line moves to 51 or higher I would play a little on the under.
In the NFL
***Play Cleveland plus 3 or more.
Remember always expect to lose so you are not surprised by the result. This mind strategy of play makes winning double sweet if it happens. Donn Wagner
From: TheSwami
Good morning
Unfortunately the flu bug hit The Swami yesterday so I will not be able to present you with the normal format of information.
That said I do want to share with you a few plays.
Let's try to add to our nice (4-0) start for the 2009 football season with more official VIP-E-MAIL football selections for you.
SEPTEMBER 19 and 20
This week I want to share with you Larry Norris (The Cardinal) likes
***Purdue-N ILL game to go over 53.5
this is his second Double-Ringer play of the day. It kicks off at noon EST.
Right now he is also selling his Louisville-Kentucky play on the 900 system 1-900-287-5050 extension 7. This game also goes at noon EST. He is (14-4) when these two teams play each other. He specializes on both of these teams. He is connected to both programs and always seems to know the inside skinny in this rivalry.
The 70% Computer Play has a smart college total for us this week
***Play Oklahoma (under) as long the is 56.5 or more.
This system is now produced a mark of 143-82 since I have followed it. That is 52.2 net winners since 1998.
Swami's Inside Notes:
NOTE ONE: 15 players for Penn State have the flu including several key starters...If PSU was playing a team that was close to or equal in talent this would be a huge factor. Being a 30-point favorite over a team that has not presented the Nittany Lions with much problems in recent years this is only a slight factor, but a factor never the less. I would not lay the 30 points today knowing this.
NOTE TWO: AZ State vs UL-Monroe total has moved 10 points in 5 days. It opened at 59 and is now 49. I played AZ State at 54 and 51. Is it still the right side to play the under at 49?.....probably not. I would look for the line to maybe reverse its movement as wise guys pay back some action to hedge their initial wagers. If this happens and the line moves to 51 or higher I would play a little on the under.
In the NFL
***Play Cleveland plus 3 or more.
Remember always expect to lose so you are not surprised by the result. This mind strategy of play makes winning double sweet if it happens. Donn Wagner
Kelso Highrollers Baseball
Saturday, September 19, 2009
15 UnitsLa Angels {J.Weaver} (+105) over Rangers {S.Feldman}
7:05 PM -- Rangers Ballpark in Arlington
Los Angeles Angels (88-59) +105 over TEXAS RANGERS (80-66) Pitching for Los Angeles: RH Jered Weaver (15-6, 3.85) Pitching for Texas: RH Scott Feldman (16-5, 3.65) Starting Time: 7:05 TV: KCOP Los Angeles, KDFI Dallas-Fort Worth
Partly cloudy. Winds blowing out to right field at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 80.
Saturday, September 19, 2009
15 UnitsLa Angels {J.Weaver} (+105) over Rangers {S.Feldman}
7:05 PM -- Rangers Ballpark in Arlington
Los Angeles Angels (88-59) +105 over TEXAS RANGERS (80-66) Pitching for Los Angeles: RH Jered Weaver (15-6, 3.85) Pitching for Texas: RH Scott Feldman (16-5, 3.65) Starting Time: 7:05 TV: KCOP Los Angeles, KDFI Dallas-Fort Worth
Partly cloudy. Winds blowing out to right field at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 80.
ethan law
<NOBR id=2_messageHeaderSubject_text class=cgSelectable>CONFIRMED SATURDAY NCAA SELECTIONS (FINAL)</NOBR>
HERE IS THE "FINAL" UPDATE. NEXT UPDATE AROUND 10:30 TOMORROW NIGHT FOR THE NFL. AS ALWAYS BEST OF LUCK GUYS.
------------------
SUMMARY OF SATURDAY NCAA SELECTIONS: (FINAL)
3% OREGON STATE +1 (NCAA GAME OF THE WEEK)
2% TEMPLE +30
2% COLORADO -6.5
2% FLORIDA STATE +8
2% ARIZONA STATE -20 (ADDED)
2% OKLAHOMA -18 (ADDED)
OPINION SELECTIONS: FLORIDA STATE +$280
SUMMARY OF MANHATTAN SYNDICATE NCAA SELECTION: (FINAL)
MARSHALL +3
---------------------
THE NCAA GAME OF THE WEEK
CINCINNATI (2-0)
at
OREGON STATE (2-0)
6:45 EST, Fox Sports Net, Saturday, September 19
Those of you who follow me know I was in Las Vegas last weekend. While I was out there I decided to go check out the Oregon State vs. UNLV game live so if it seems like I know a little too much about this game its only because I personally saw Oregon State play less than 7 days ago. I anticipate this to be one of the more entertaining games to watch this weekend as we have very interesting dichotomy’s here. I am especially curious to see how Cincinnati is able to handle the west coast offense. With that said onto the analysis. It fair to say (like Penn State) were are uncertain exactly how good this Cincinnati (2-0 SU & 1-0 ATS) team is as they have played a pair of very easy games and is rolling. Nobody can knock the success of their head coach Brian Kelly as they rolled to a 10-3 SU & 9-3 ATS 2007 season and topped that last season going 11-3 with a Big East championship. In 2009, though the verdict is still out. Seven (7) starters return on offense, but they lost ten (10) on defense. Meanwhile, Oregon State (2-0 SU & 0-1 ATS) comes home after a scare, a 23-21 win at UNLV. They have their Pac 10 opener on deck against Arizona. Oregon State is also off an impressive 2008 campaign going 9-4 SU & 9-3 ATS behind head coach Mike Riley, with 6 starters back on offense, 3 on defense. Their offense is lead by senior quarterback Sean Canfield: (356 yards, 3 touchdowns, no interceptions) and they use balanced behind sophomore running back Jacquizz Rodgers (269 yards, 6.4 yards per carry). Last season he pounded out 1,253 yards on 4.8 yards per carry. The defense has gotten good practice the last 2 games playing Portland State and UNLV, two teams that run a spread offense, which most Pac 10 teams do.
Now I have search around some of the various forums and read what the public believes about this game. I also got to speak with the director of the sports book operations at Mandalay Bay (if you recall him and I are friends) and we discussed this game on Sunday when the line came out. Simply put guys, this has “trap” written all over it. Almost every forum poster is saying this game is the “lock” of the century, and the books know that the public will flood this game, which is why we have seen such a betting disparity. Indeed, as of this writing, this is the game that has the most lopsided betting on the board with 88% of the wagers placed on Cincinnati. Not surprisingly, the line has moved 2.5 points thus making Oregon State a home underdog. WOW. Obviously the betting public believes that a ranked opponent that has outscored their opposition (Rutgers and Southeast Missouri State) by a combined score of 117-18 can easily manhandle an opponent (that despite also be 2-0) has had a much tougher time needing a Justin Kahut field with seven seconds left to fend off a challenge from UNLV in Las Vegas. With that said, we need to examine the market place as to why there is this public perception. Cincinnati (on paper) looks great. No question about that. However, their power ranking and national ranking is a bit skewed as they played the above mentioned SE Missouri State and Rutgers and neither team is much of an offensive threat. If you read above I mentioned that Cincinnati lost 10 starts on the defensive side of the ball, but that’s not all. They also hired a new defensive coordinator. The problem, is that he switched the team to a new 3-4 defense that has not been tested in the least by the competition they played. Neither the Knights nor the Redhawks have anyone resembling Jacquizz or James Rodgers who have shown to be game-changers whenever they touch the ball. Look for both of them to frustrate a defense that has yet to be truly tested. Considering that the new defensive coordinator comes from Virginia (where they play more vanilla offensive teams) neither Cincinnati or the defensive coordinator has had much of a sniff at Pac 10 offense. We also cannot forget that Oregon State is a team that has won 28 games the past three seasons. They are 15-4 SU and 11-6 ATS at home during that time including wins over USC (twice), California, Utah and Oregon. Are we really getting points here? Really? OSU is a very underrated and dangerous football team…period. We have the added advantage of an east coast team traveling for a late Pacific Time start, the home field advantage, the stronger conference affiliation, and the equally if not more talented team. Oh by the way, the Beavers sport a 15-0 mark SU mark at home against lined non-conference opposition, are 4-1 ATS off a non-conference road win and 6-2 ATS before Arizona. Are we really getting points? See I cannot get over it.
Verdict: Oregon State 34, Cincinnati 28
PLAY 2* UNITS (3%) ON OREGON STATE +1
TEMPLE (0-1)
at
PENN ST (2-0)
Saturday, Sep 19 2009, 12:00 PM EST
When the schedule came out this summer I somehow tried to convince myself not to play this disaster of a game but here we are on the eve of it and I simply just cannot control myself. Maybe it is the underdog bettor in me or maybe I have lost my touch, but the bottom line here is that we are getting a ridiculous amount of value in this early season contest. As expected the public players are flooding to this match-up despite the incredible line of -30. Indeed, the line in this contest opened at -29.5 and has since moved up to -30 (-30.5 in some shops) as the public is placing their bets at almost a 9-1 clip for the favorite. Does this make sense? Well the answer to that question is yes, as setting the the line in Penn State games at ridiculous numbers has now worked twice (both Penn State SU wins but NOT covers) so the bookmaker is again trying to pull the wool over our eyes. Not so fast. Penn State supporters will certainly point to the fact that Temple has been outscored by a ridiculous margin of 133-3 in the series the last three times these teams met, but that is without a doubt the only reason I could find to support to Penn State argument.
Simply put, we know very little about how good this Penn State team will be this season as they have played two very predictable and mediocre offenses in Akron and Syracuse to start the season, beating the two by a combined score of 59-14. On paper, that looks impressive (if you are a Penn State fan), but the Penn State bettor knows all too well that in both contests they got out to early leads of 31-0 and 28-0 but the back door cover hurt meant a losing ticket when it was all said and done. In both contests, Penn State was virtually unable to get any semblance of a rushing attack (something they will desperately need when they start playing with the big boys next week) with Iowa coming to Happy Valley next week, followed by a trip to Illinois. So how bad has the Penn State ground game been? They managed only 136 rushing yards and a touchdown against Akron and just 78 yards and a score against Syracuse. That’s a pretty bad result considering those teams defensive lines cannot compete with the lines of Big 10 teams. So it is clear, that since this contest is basically like another practice game for Penn State they will want to work primarily on their rushing attack against Temple this week. As I always stress, with more running plays will be less possessions, which means that clock will keep moving, making this a shorter game with fewer opportunities to score, all great for crazy people thinking of taking a team like Temple.
Although Temple is off a disaster of a season-opening loss to Villinova from the FCS ranks, not all is bad for this team. There red shirt junior quarterback Vaughn Charlton (who I had questions about) went 19-of-28 for a career-high 317 yards and two touchdowns although some interceptions were thrown into the mix. What undid Temple was the whopping five (5) turnovers. They did convert on 55.5% of their third downs, and out gained Villinova by 100 yards. So despite the SU loss, we can at least take solice that Temple won that game ITS (in the stats) and if they do not turn the ball over 5 times this week they have a legitimate shot at keeping this one extremely close. Fundamentally, (as stated above) Penn State has been struggling with their rushing attack, and the defensive line is without question the strength of this Temple team so I fully expect them to win a few battles up front. Against Villanova the Temple defense allowed just 64 yards while registering five sacks and 11 tackles for loss. Incredibly, that makes them the No. 1 defense in the nation in those categories (I know its just Villinova) but the point is that this is the best defensive line they have played all season, so look for the Nittany Lion backfield to be penetrated. Situationally, this is also a much better spot for the Owls. They are off a bye and have had 16 days to prepare for this contest. Similar to my week #1 analysis for Navy, Temple players and coaches want to major defining win for this program. Although they will not get it here, they will fight to the end, something that is always good when you are getting 30 points. In contrast, Penn State has a huge revenge game on deck when they host the only team to beat them in the regular season in 2008 (Iowa) next week. Couple the fact that Penn State head coach Joe Paterno would likely not want to do anything to embarrass his former assistant and Temple head coach Al Golden and we have a situational sweep. Oh by the way, Temple is an incredible 24-8 ATS as a road underdog of 30 points or less off a loss take those points and pray! Verdict: Penn State 34, Temple 14
PLAY 1* UNIT (2%) ON TEMPLE +30
WYOMING (1-1)
at
COLORADO (0-2)
3:30 EST, Saturday, September 19
This game is very much an outside the box selection for me given this situational set-up so early on in the season, however it is nevertheless a very good one. Ideally, this is the type of selection I normally play towards the end of the season, given the situational setting of a (must win) for the home team, but I do admit that is it hard to argue with somebody’s opinion that no game is a must win so early in a season. Those of you who have followed me know that I am not a huge fan of “laying” points on a bad team, but here the situation arises where we do have a home favorite that does have some value. The reason for the value is that there should not be a single bettor (I their right mind) that would want to lay points with this Colorado (a team they already had to lay points with and got crushed) team. In their two opening contests (against Colorado State and Toledo) Colorado was completely embarrassed as they fell behind by two touchdowns early each time, and allowed an incredible 92 points combined. WOW. Even more alarming perhaps is the fact that their defense gave up a whopping 624 yards of total offense against Toledo last week on national television. I do however like the fact that the game was on national television, because anybody who saw that drubbing watched how bad Colorado looked.
Despite the blowout situations, an educated bettor learns from the past, analyzes the line and compares those prior fundamental match-ups with what they are facing this week. Both Toledo and Colorado State had experience and depth on the offensive side of the ball as both teams possessed senior quarterbacks and fast, athletic wide receivers who (in a nutshell) were just too much for the very average Colorado secondary. In stark contrast, Wyoming hasn’t much of a semblance of any kind of a passing attack in at least four years. Wyoming (1-1 SU & 0-1 ATS) has a new head coach Dave Christensen, and a very vanilla offense. The 2008 offense was a joke, so Christensen brings in a no-huddle, up-tempo, spread offense, which might be hard as they do not have much experience at quarterback. They rotated quarterbacks Austyn Carta-Samuels (freshman) and junior Robert Benjamin again in last Saturday’s 41-10 home loss to Texas. In that contest they defense gave up 541 yards. Wyoming also had an unimpressive 29-22 win over Weber State, giving up 411 yards (322 passing).
So I was commenting above a bit about the situational set-up for this contest. Well, there are already grumbling's about the future of Colorado Head Coach Dan Hawkins this is as much a “must win” spot as there could be this early. Colorado also has the advantage of having a bye week next week, so they will likely put everything on the line to get a convincing win here, which will basically hit the reset button on their abysmal start thus far. With trips on deck to West Virginia and Texas coming up next, and with three more road games to deal with over the second half of the season, this is simply a do or die situation. Meanwhile for Wyoming, they open their conference schedule next week against UNLV, so there is a look ahead. Fundamentally, the Colorado defensive line should find success against a Cowboy offensive line that has struggled, one that allowed seven sacks in the first two games. Overall, I do not think this game is going to pretty but we should walk away with an SU & ATS win. Verdict: Colorado 34, Wyoming 17
PLAY 1* UNIT (2%) ON COLORADO -6.5
FLORIDA STATE (1-1)
at
BYU (2-0)
7:00 EST, Versus, Saturday, September 19
I step in a few times every year to play this Florida State team and this is clearly one of the more ideal settings for that this week. Everybody seems to be asking…what is the deal with Florida State (1-1 SU & 0-1 ATS)? Well the answer is quite simple…nothing really. We are only two games into the season and they still have a potent offense with 8 starters back, led by junior quarterback Christian Ponder (2 touchdowns, 1 interception). They also have the services of a very capable running back in sophomore running Ty Jones and arguably one of the better offensive lines in the nation. They topped 400 yards in the opener, and 402 yards against Jacksonville State. People are looking at the Jacksonville State game as an indicator that this is not the same Bobby Bowdin dangerous team we are accustomed to seeing, but that was a terrible spot for them since they has a top ranked opponent on deck. What has been a little concerning is their defense that gave up 476 yards in a 38-34 loss to rival Miami. However, that was the first game of the season and we are talking about a proud and traditionally strong defense, one that was exceptional last year allowing just 20.8 points per game and one that ranked 13th nationally in total defense. Meanwhile, BYU (2-0 SU & ATS) returns senior quarterback Max Hall (35 touchdowns, 14 interceptions and 3,957 yards last fall), who led an offense that was electric, averaging 35 points, 135 yards rushing and 310 passing in 2008. They have two-year starting running back Harvey Unga (1,132 yards) and All-American senior tight end Dennis Pitta (1,083 yards). They certainly have the attention of the public as well as they opened the season with a stunning 14-13 upset of No. 3 Oklahoma, and later destroyed Tulane 54-3. Despite the success all is not right with BYU as this week they have to deal with another offensive line injury, with freshman starting left guard Braden Hansen out 1-3 weeks with a knee injury. The Cougars’ rebuilding offensive line (one starter back) has been adjusting all summer due to multiple injuries and some academic issues, which could spell disaster against the powerful Florida State pass rush.
Having been one of my favorite underdog tams to bet over the last eight season, the reality here is simple, Florida State is extremely dangerous underdog. Reports out of FSU is that Florida State players and coaches feel disrespected that they are a more than a touchdown underdog, even on the road against a top ranked opponent. Lets also be honest with ourselves here, was the Jacksonville State squeaker really all the terrible? How could Florida state possibly been up for that game when they were traveling to play a top 10 team the very next week, having to play a game in terrible weather, and knowing that a win will defiantly put them in the BCS picture (despite the loss to Miami). Meanwhile, the line is clearly artificially inflated as I had it set at -4. What happened is that BYU’s power rating when through the roof after this dismantling of lowly Tulane. Now BYU supporters will quickly point to the Oklahoma win as justification for this high line. But I am going to make a bold statement here, and listen up because it is true. The Florida State Offensive line is three times better than that of Oklahoma’s. Oklahoma came into that contest with a very inexperienced offensive line. Some people also believe the FSU will have trouble against the unbalanced defense of BYU’s 5-man secondary. But I also disagree with that as well, as the speed of the Seminole receivers with neutralize that formation. After all guys, this is still Florida State, a team that has had a top 5 recruiting class each and every year for the past three seasons and a team whos athletes are as good as anyone in the country, including BYU. Look for the Seminoles to pound the ball with their powerful and quick rushing attack to open the lane for the passing game. On defense, I look for them to completely shut down the run which will make BYU one dimensional. Its also going to be very curious to see how BYU reacts to all the attention they are getting as this game will defiantly qualify as one of the most important games in the school’s storied history. The entire nation is watching, which is something FSU is used too, not BYU. From the technical perspective we can take solace in the fact that the Seminoles are 6-0 ATS off non-conference game against a foe off win by 10 or more points, while BYU is 0-10 ATS as a home favorite of 14 or less off two road games. Don’t be surprised if Florida State wins this one outright!
Verdict: BYU 24, Florida State 28
PLAY 1* UNIT (2%) ON FLORIDA STATE +8
OPINION SELECTION ON FLORIDA STATE +$280
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THE MANHATTAN SYNDICATE PLAY
Note: To my full Season NCAA Subscribers, this play is not part of Ethan Laws premium package. Rather, each week Ethan will be releasing a few plays that were bet by the New York City betting syndicate to which he is one of the lead adviser's on. The Syndicate will likely be releasing more than one selection starting next week, but in the early going they play a very conservative approach.
Syndicate play: The first and only play the syndicate collectively bet this week in the NCAA was MARSHALL +3! The “Thundering Herd” opened as a 3 point home underdog and line has remained at 3 number despite public sentiment at an 80% clip for Bowling Green. After some considerable discussion the group decided to place a $45,000 wager on Marshall +3. Shortly after the ticket was given to the runner the books adjusted their vig on the contest but to our shock did not move the line.
Ethan’s thoughts: I am happy to report that all three advisors flagged Marshall early in the week including myself. Although it was not one of my TOP selections, I thought that the selection did have some merit as I had it as the third strongest selection on the board. I fought very hard for my top selection (Oregon State) and there was some heated debate about it, but in the end I was overridden due to the fact I was the only adviser who flagged it as a top 3 play. Getting to merit of this selection, I do agree that this a very important game for them especially after last week’s 52-10 embarrassment to Virginia Tech. But in reality, they really had no shot to win that contest, and we all felt they were looking ahead to this very winnable game. Marshall has a very capable and dangerous rushing attack behind running back Darius Marshall who put up impressive numbers (109 yards) against a very stout VirginiaTech defensive unit. That is important as we all felt that Marshall has a unit on unit fundamental match-up advantage over the Bowling Green front seven as they lost their entire defensive line from a year ago. Bowling Green might be in for a surprise considering they have played Troy and Missouri, who possess pass oriented offensive ideologies. Look for the Mean Green to exploit the Bowling Green inexperience on their front seven, which will open up the passing game that is above average but nothing to write home about. This is also not the best situational setting for Bowling Green who is playing their second straight road contest, and has a huge home game against top 10 ranked Boise St. next week.
SYNDICATE PLAY: MARSHALL +3
<NOBR id=2_messageHeaderSubject_text class=cgSelectable>CONFIRMED SATURDAY NCAA SELECTIONS (FINAL)</NOBR>
HERE IS THE "FINAL" UPDATE. NEXT UPDATE AROUND 10:30 TOMORROW NIGHT FOR THE NFL. AS ALWAYS BEST OF LUCK GUYS.
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SUMMARY OF SATURDAY NCAA SELECTIONS: (FINAL)
3% OREGON STATE +1 (NCAA GAME OF THE WEEK)
2% TEMPLE +30
2% COLORADO -6.5
2% FLORIDA STATE +8
2% ARIZONA STATE -20 (ADDED)
2% OKLAHOMA -18 (ADDED)
OPINION SELECTIONS: FLORIDA STATE +$280
SUMMARY OF MANHATTAN SYNDICATE NCAA SELECTION: (FINAL)
MARSHALL +3
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THE NCAA GAME OF THE WEEK
CINCINNATI (2-0)
6:45 EST, Fox Sports Net, Saturday, September 19
Those of you who follow me know I was in Las Vegas last weekend. While I was out there I decided to go check out the Oregon State vs. UNLV game live so if it seems like I know a little too much about this game its only because I personally saw Oregon State play less than 7 days ago. I anticipate this to be one of the more entertaining games to watch this weekend as we have very interesting dichotomy’s here. I am especially curious to see how Cincinnati is able to handle the west coast offense. With that said onto the analysis. It fair to say (like Penn State) were are uncertain exactly how good this Cincinnati (2-0 SU & 1-0 ATS) team is as they have played a pair of very easy games and is rolling. Nobody can knock the success of their head coach Brian Kelly as they rolled to a 10-3 SU & 9-3 ATS 2007 season and topped that last season going 11-3 with a Big East championship. In 2009, though the verdict is still out. Seven (7) starters return on offense, but they lost ten (10) on defense. Meanwhile, Oregon State (2-0 SU & 0-1 ATS) comes home after a scare, a 23-21 win at UNLV. They have their Pac 10 opener on deck against Arizona. Oregon State is also off an impressive 2008 campaign going 9-4 SU & 9-3 ATS behind head coach Mike Riley, with 6 starters back on offense, 3 on defense. Their offense is lead by senior quarterback Sean Canfield: (356 yards, 3 touchdowns, no interceptions) and they use balanced behind sophomore running back Jacquizz Rodgers (269 yards, 6.4 yards per carry). Last season he pounded out 1,253 yards on 4.8 yards per carry. The defense has gotten good practice the last 2 games playing Portland State and UNLV, two teams that run a spread offense, which most Pac 10 teams do.
Now I have search around some of the various forums and read what the public believes about this game. I also got to speak with the director of the sports book operations at Mandalay Bay (if you recall him and I are friends) and we discussed this game on Sunday when the line came out. Simply put guys, this has “trap” written all over it. Almost every forum poster is saying this game is the “lock” of the century, and the books know that the public will flood this game, which is why we have seen such a betting disparity. Indeed, as of this writing, this is the game that has the most lopsided betting on the board with 88% of the wagers placed on Cincinnati. Not surprisingly, the line has moved 2.5 points thus making Oregon State a home underdog. WOW. Obviously the betting public believes that a ranked opponent that has outscored their opposition (Rutgers and Southeast Missouri State) by a combined score of 117-18 can easily manhandle an opponent (that despite also be 2-0) has had a much tougher time needing a Justin Kahut field with seven seconds left to fend off a challenge from UNLV in Las Vegas. With that said, we need to examine the market place as to why there is this public perception. Cincinnati (on paper) looks great. No question about that. However, their power ranking and national ranking is a bit skewed as they played the above mentioned SE Missouri State and Rutgers and neither team is much of an offensive threat. If you read above I mentioned that Cincinnati lost 10 starts on the defensive side of the ball, but that’s not all. They also hired a new defensive coordinator. The problem, is that he switched the team to a new 3-4 defense that has not been tested in the least by the competition they played. Neither the Knights nor the Redhawks have anyone resembling Jacquizz or James Rodgers who have shown to be game-changers whenever they touch the ball. Look for both of them to frustrate a defense that has yet to be truly tested. Considering that the new defensive coordinator comes from Virginia (where they play more vanilla offensive teams) neither Cincinnati or the defensive coordinator has had much of a sniff at Pac 10 offense. We also cannot forget that Oregon State is a team that has won 28 games the past three seasons. They are 15-4 SU and 11-6 ATS at home during that time including wins over USC (twice), California, Utah and Oregon. Are we really getting points here? Really? OSU is a very underrated and dangerous football team…period. We have the added advantage of an east coast team traveling for a late Pacific Time start, the home field advantage, the stronger conference affiliation, and the equally if not more talented team. Oh by the way, the Beavers sport a 15-0 mark SU mark at home against lined non-conference opposition, are 4-1 ATS off a non-conference road win and 6-2 ATS before Arizona. Are we really getting points? See I cannot get over it.
Verdict: Oregon State 34, Cincinnati 28
PLAY 2* UNITS (3%) ON OREGON STATE +1
TEMPLE (0-1)
Saturday, Sep 19 2009, 12:00 PM EST
When the schedule came out this summer I somehow tried to convince myself not to play this disaster of a game but here we are on the eve of it and I simply just cannot control myself. Maybe it is the underdog bettor in me or maybe I have lost my touch, but the bottom line here is that we are getting a ridiculous amount of value in this early season contest. As expected the public players are flooding to this match-up despite the incredible line of -30. Indeed, the line in this contest opened at -29.5 and has since moved up to -30 (-30.5 in some shops) as the public is placing their bets at almost a 9-1 clip for the favorite. Does this make sense? Well the answer to that question is yes, as setting the the line in Penn State games at ridiculous numbers has now worked twice (both Penn State SU wins but NOT covers) so the bookmaker is again trying to pull the wool over our eyes. Not so fast. Penn State supporters will certainly point to the fact that Temple has been outscored by a ridiculous margin of 133-3 in the series the last three times these teams met, but that is without a doubt the only reason I could find to support to Penn State argument.
Simply put, we know very little about how good this Penn State team will be this season as they have played two very predictable and mediocre offenses in Akron and Syracuse to start the season, beating the two by a combined score of 59-14. On paper, that looks impressive (if you are a Penn State fan), but the Penn State bettor knows all too well that in both contests they got out to early leads of 31-0 and 28-0 but the back door cover hurt meant a losing ticket when it was all said and done. In both contests, Penn State was virtually unable to get any semblance of a rushing attack (something they will desperately need when they start playing with the big boys next week) with Iowa coming to Happy Valley next week, followed by a trip to Illinois. So how bad has the Penn State ground game been? They managed only 136 rushing yards and a touchdown against Akron and just 78 yards and a score against Syracuse. That’s a pretty bad result considering those teams defensive lines cannot compete with the lines of Big 10 teams. So it is clear, that since this contest is basically like another practice game for Penn State they will want to work primarily on their rushing attack against Temple this week. As I always stress, with more running plays will be less possessions, which means that clock will keep moving, making this a shorter game with fewer opportunities to score, all great for crazy people thinking of taking a team like Temple.
Although Temple is off a disaster of a season-opening loss to Villinova from the FCS ranks, not all is bad for this team. There red shirt junior quarterback Vaughn Charlton (who I had questions about) went 19-of-28 for a career-high 317 yards and two touchdowns although some interceptions were thrown into the mix. What undid Temple was the whopping five (5) turnovers. They did convert on 55.5% of their third downs, and out gained Villinova by 100 yards. So despite the SU loss, we can at least take solice that Temple won that game ITS (in the stats) and if they do not turn the ball over 5 times this week they have a legitimate shot at keeping this one extremely close. Fundamentally, (as stated above) Penn State has been struggling with their rushing attack, and the defensive line is without question the strength of this Temple team so I fully expect them to win a few battles up front. Against Villanova the Temple defense allowed just 64 yards while registering five sacks and 11 tackles for loss. Incredibly, that makes them the No. 1 defense in the nation in those categories (I know its just Villinova) but the point is that this is the best defensive line they have played all season, so look for the Nittany Lion backfield to be penetrated. Situationally, this is also a much better spot for the Owls. They are off a bye and have had 16 days to prepare for this contest. Similar to my week #1 analysis for Navy, Temple players and coaches want to major defining win for this program. Although they will not get it here, they will fight to the end, something that is always good when you are getting 30 points. In contrast, Penn State has a huge revenge game on deck when they host the only team to beat them in the regular season in 2008 (Iowa) next week. Couple the fact that Penn State head coach Joe Paterno would likely not want to do anything to embarrass his former assistant and Temple head coach Al Golden and we have a situational sweep. Oh by the way, Temple is an incredible 24-8 ATS as a road underdog of 30 points or less off a loss take those points and pray! Verdict: Penn State 34, Temple 14
PLAY 1* UNIT (2%) ON TEMPLE +30
WYOMING (1-1)
3:30 EST, Saturday, September 19
This game is very much an outside the box selection for me given this situational set-up so early on in the season, however it is nevertheless a very good one. Ideally, this is the type of selection I normally play towards the end of the season, given the situational setting of a (must win) for the home team, but I do admit that is it hard to argue with somebody’s opinion that no game is a must win so early in a season. Those of you who have followed me know that I am not a huge fan of “laying” points on a bad team, but here the situation arises where we do have a home favorite that does have some value. The reason for the value is that there should not be a single bettor (I their right mind) that would want to lay points with this Colorado (a team they already had to lay points with and got crushed) team. In their two opening contests (against Colorado State and Toledo) Colorado was completely embarrassed as they fell behind by two touchdowns early each time, and allowed an incredible 92 points combined. WOW. Even more alarming perhaps is the fact that their defense gave up a whopping 624 yards of total offense against Toledo last week on national television. I do however like the fact that the game was on national television, because anybody who saw that drubbing watched how bad Colorado looked.
Despite the blowout situations, an educated bettor learns from the past, analyzes the line and compares those prior fundamental match-ups with what they are facing this week. Both Toledo and Colorado State had experience and depth on the offensive side of the ball as both teams possessed senior quarterbacks and fast, athletic wide receivers who (in a nutshell) were just too much for the very average Colorado secondary. In stark contrast, Wyoming hasn’t much of a semblance of any kind of a passing attack in at least four years. Wyoming (1-1 SU & 0-1 ATS) has a new head coach Dave Christensen, and a very vanilla offense. The 2008 offense was a joke, so Christensen brings in a no-huddle, up-tempo, spread offense, which might be hard as they do not have much experience at quarterback. They rotated quarterbacks Austyn Carta-Samuels (freshman) and junior Robert Benjamin again in last Saturday’s 41-10 home loss to Texas. In that contest they defense gave up 541 yards. Wyoming also had an unimpressive 29-22 win over Weber State, giving up 411 yards (322 passing).
So I was commenting above a bit about the situational set-up for this contest. Well, there are already grumbling's about the future of Colorado Head Coach Dan Hawkins this is as much a “must win” spot as there could be this early. Colorado also has the advantage of having a bye week next week, so they will likely put everything on the line to get a convincing win here, which will basically hit the reset button on their abysmal start thus far. With trips on deck to West Virginia and Texas coming up next, and with three more road games to deal with over the second half of the season, this is simply a do or die situation. Meanwhile for Wyoming, they open their conference schedule next week against UNLV, so there is a look ahead. Fundamentally, the Colorado defensive line should find success against a Cowboy offensive line that has struggled, one that allowed seven sacks in the first two games. Overall, I do not think this game is going to pretty but we should walk away with an SU & ATS win. Verdict: Colorado 34, Wyoming 17
PLAY 1* UNIT (2%) ON COLORADO -6.5
FLORIDA STATE (1-1)
7:00 EST, Versus, Saturday, September 19
I step in a few times every year to play this Florida State team and this is clearly one of the more ideal settings for that this week. Everybody seems to be asking…what is the deal with Florida State (1-1 SU & 0-1 ATS)? Well the answer is quite simple…nothing really. We are only two games into the season and they still have a potent offense with 8 starters back, led by junior quarterback Christian Ponder (2 touchdowns, 1 interception). They also have the services of a very capable running back in sophomore running Ty Jones and arguably one of the better offensive lines in the nation. They topped 400 yards in the opener, and 402 yards against Jacksonville State. People are looking at the Jacksonville State game as an indicator that this is not the same Bobby Bowdin dangerous team we are accustomed to seeing, but that was a terrible spot for them since they has a top ranked opponent on deck. What has been a little concerning is their defense that gave up 476 yards in a 38-34 loss to rival Miami. However, that was the first game of the season and we are talking about a proud and traditionally strong defense, one that was exceptional last year allowing just 20.8 points per game and one that ranked 13th nationally in total defense. Meanwhile, BYU (2-0 SU & ATS) returns senior quarterback Max Hall (35 touchdowns, 14 interceptions and 3,957 yards last fall), who led an offense that was electric, averaging 35 points, 135 yards rushing and 310 passing in 2008. They have two-year starting running back Harvey Unga (1,132 yards) and All-American senior tight end Dennis Pitta (1,083 yards). They certainly have the attention of the public as well as they opened the season with a stunning 14-13 upset of No. 3 Oklahoma, and later destroyed Tulane 54-3. Despite the success all is not right with BYU as this week they have to deal with another offensive line injury, with freshman starting left guard Braden Hansen out 1-3 weeks with a knee injury. The Cougars’ rebuilding offensive line (one starter back) has been adjusting all summer due to multiple injuries and some academic issues, which could spell disaster against the powerful Florida State pass rush.
Having been one of my favorite underdog tams to bet over the last eight season, the reality here is simple, Florida State is extremely dangerous underdog. Reports out of FSU is that Florida State players and coaches feel disrespected that they are a more than a touchdown underdog, even on the road against a top ranked opponent. Lets also be honest with ourselves here, was the Jacksonville State squeaker really all the terrible? How could Florida state possibly been up for that game when they were traveling to play a top 10 team the very next week, having to play a game in terrible weather, and knowing that a win will defiantly put them in the BCS picture (despite the loss to Miami). Meanwhile, the line is clearly artificially inflated as I had it set at -4. What happened is that BYU’s power rating when through the roof after this dismantling of lowly Tulane. Now BYU supporters will quickly point to the Oklahoma win as justification for this high line. But I am going to make a bold statement here, and listen up because it is true. The Florida State Offensive line is three times better than that of Oklahoma’s. Oklahoma came into that contest with a very inexperienced offensive line. Some people also believe the FSU will have trouble against the unbalanced defense of BYU’s 5-man secondary. But I also disagree with that as well, as the speed of the Seminole receivers with neutralize that formation. After all guys, this is still Florida State, a team that has had a top 5 recruiting class each and every year for the past three seasons and a team whos athletes are as good as anyone in the country, including BYU. Look for the Seminoles to pound the ball with their powerful and quick rushing attack to open the lane for the passing game. On defense, I look for them to completely shut down the run which will make BYU one dimensional. Its also going to be very curious to see how BYU reacts to all the attention they are getting as this game will defiantly qualify as one of the most important games in the school’s storied history. The entire nation is watching, which is something FSU is used too, not BYU. From the technical perspective we can take solace in the fact that the Seminoles are 6-0 ATS off non-conference game against a foe off win by 10 or more points, while BYU is 0-10 ATS as a home favorite of 14 or less off two road games. Don’t be surprised if Florida State wins this one outright!
Verdict: BYU 24, Florida State 28
PLAY 1* UNIT (2%) ON FLORIDA STATE +8
OPINION SELECTION ON FLORIDA STATE +$280
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THE MANHATTAN SYNDICATE PLAY
Note: To my full Season NCAA Subscribers, this play is not part of Ethan Laws premium package. Rather, each week Ethan will be releasing a few plays that were bet by the New York City betting syndicate to which he is one of the lead adviser's on. The Syndicate will likely be releasing more than one selection starting next week, but in the early going they play a very conservative approach.
Syndicate play: The first and only play the syndicate collectively bet this week in the NCAA was MARSHALL +3! The “Thundering Herd” opened as a 3 point home underdog and line has remained at 3 number despite public sentiment at an 80% clip for Bowling Green. After some considerable discussion the group decided to place a $45,000 wager on Marshall +3. Shortly after the ticket was given to the runner the books adjusted their vig on the contest but to our shock did not move the line.
Ethan’s thoughts: I am happy to report that all three advisors flagged Marshall early in the week including myself. Although it was not one of my TOP selections, I thought that the selection did have some merit as I had it as the third strongest selection on the board. I fought very hard for my top selection (Oregon State) and there was some heated debate about it, but in the end I was overridden due to the fact I was the only adviser who flagged it as a top 3 play. Getting to merit of this selection, I do agree that this a very important game for them especially after last week’s 52-10 embarrassment to Virginia Tech. But in reality, they really had no shot to win that contest, and we all felt they were looking ahead to this very winnable game. Marshall has a very capable and dangerous rushing attack behind running back Darius Marshall who put up impressive numbers (109 yards) against a very stout VirginiaTech defensive unit. That is important as we all felt that Marshall has a unit on unit fundamental match-up advantage over the Bowling Green front seven as they lost their entire defensive line from a year ago. Bowling Green might be in for a surprise considering they have played Troy and Missouri, who possess pass oriented offensive ideologies. Look for the Mean Green to exploit the Bowling Green inexperience on their front seven, which will open up the passing game that is above average but nothing to write home about. This is also not the best situational setting for Bowling Green who is playing their second straight road contest, and has a huge home game against top 10 ranked Boise St. next week.
SYNDICATE PLAY: MARSHALL +3
