THE SPORTS ADVISORS
SATURDAY, AUGUST 29
NFL PRESEASON
Indianapolis (1-1 SU and ATS) at Detroit (1-1, 0-2 ATS)
Peyton Manning and the Colts hit the road for the first time this preseason when they travel to Ford Field to take on the Lions in Week 3, traditionally the week that starters see their most playing time before the regular season begins.
Indianapolis dropped Philadelphia 23-15 on Aug. 20 as a 3½-point home underdog, with Manning throwing a pair of first-quarter TDs – including a 76-yarder to Reggie Wayne – and finishing 10 of 14 for 167 yards on three possessions. First-year coach Jim Caldwell said Manning and the starters will definitely go the entire first half today and perhaps into the third quarter. Jim Sorgi (hamstring) likely will have to sit out again, meaning Curtis Painter will relieve Manning and finish out the second half.
Detroit lost to Cleveland 27-10 last Saturday as a 3½-point road pup, falling behind 20-0 in the first quarter. No. 1 overall pick Matthew Stafford, making his first start, went 5 of 13 for just 34 yards and threw an INT on his first pass. Rookie coach Jim Schwartz will send veteran Daunte Culpepper (10 of 16, 86 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs last week) out first this week, and though Stafford won’t enter until the second quarter, Schwartz said both QBs will see time with the first-string offense, including their top wideout targets.
Despite the upset win over Philadelphia, Indianapolis is still just 4-16 SU and 6-14 ATS in preseason play since 2005, going 2-6 SU and 4-4 ATS on the road during this stretch. It also has failed to cash in seven of its last 11 as a preseason pup. On a positive note, the Colts cruised to Week 3 dress-rehearsal victories over the Saints (27-14) and Lions (37-10) in 2006 and 2007, but last year they got smacked 20-7 by the Bills as a 5½-point home chalk.
The Lions cashed in all four preseason games last year, but if you take that away, they’re just 4-14 ATS in exhibition play since 2003. Last year, Detroit pummeled Cleveland 26-6 as a 2½-point home favorite in Week 3 of the preseason, ending a four-year SU and ATS losing skid in Week 3 action.
Indianapolis saw a four-game preseason “under” streak end last week, but the under is still 6-1 in its last seven August road outings. The under is also 5-2 in Detroit’s last seven preseason contests.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
New Orleans (2-0 SU and ATS) at Oakland (1-1, 2-0 ATS)
The Saints look to remain perfect in the preseason when they travel to the Oakland Coliseum to face the Raiders in a non-conference contest.
New Orleans drubbed Houston 38-14 last Saturday as a three-point road ‘dog, with QB Drew Brees leading two TD drives before exiting, and running back Mike Bell racked up 100 yards and a TD on just 10 carries. Brees and the starters should be around much longer today, playing at least the first half and perhaps into the third quarter. Backup QB Mark Brunell likely will follow Brees this week, with Joey Harrington (concussion) finishing up if he’s well enough to play.
Oakland gave up 18 fourth-quarter points in losing to San Francisco 21-20 last Saturday as a three-point road pup. JaMarcus Russell (7 of 11, 76 yards, 1 TD) played four possessions in the contest. Coach Tom Cable said Russell and the starters will play the first half and possibly into the third quarter. Jeff Garcia, who went just one possession last week, will spell Russell and play most of the second half, with Charlie Frye and Bruce Gradkowski possibly seeing mop-up time.
New Orleans has now won and covered five straight preseason road games, but it is just 3-9 ATS as a preseason chalk since 2002. However, New Orleans has been impressive in Week 3 the last two years, going 2-0 SU and ATS on the road while outscoring opponents 43-7.
Oakland crushed the Cowboys 31-10 in its preseason home opener two weeks ago, improving to 6-1 SU and ATS in summer home games since 2006. But the Raiders are just 2-4 ATS in their last six when catching points in August, and they’re 2-4 SU and ATS in dress-rehearsal battles the last six years, including a 24-0 home loss to the Cardinals last year as a three-point Week 3 home favorite.
Oakland has topped the total in each of its first two preseason contests after seeing the under go 13-4 the previous four years in summer action. The under is also 9-4 in New Orleans’ last 13 preseason affairs.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ORLEANS
Tennessee (2-1, 1-1-1 ATS) at Cleveland (1-1 SU and ATS)
The Browns aim to take steps to settle their quarterback controversy when they play host to the Titans, who are already in their fourth exhibition contest, having opened play in the Hall of Fame Game.
Cleveland coasted past Detroit 27-10 last Saturday laying 3½ points at home, putting up 20 first-quarter points, including a Josh Cribbs 84-yard punt return for a TD. QB Derek Anderson (8 of 13, 130 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT) started and played the first quarter, leading three scoring drives before giving way to Brady Quinn (3 of 5, 29 yards).
If new coach Eric Mangini continues his preseason trend, Quinn will get the nod tonight, but Mangini said both QBs will see significant time with the rest of the first-team offense, which will play into the second half. Brett Ratliff and/or Richard Bartel will finish out the game at QB.
The Titans got drilled at Dallas 30-10 as a 3½-point underdog on Aug. 21, failing to score in the second half and giving up 16 fourth-quarter points. QB Kerry Collins (8 of 11, 55 yards, 1 TD) played the entire first half, and coach Jeff Fisher said he expects his starters to play “a little bit more than last week.” Vince Young should follow Collins, with Patrick Ramsey finishing it out.
The Browns snapped an 0-5 SU and ATS preseason losing skid (0-3 SU and ATS at home) with the rout of Detroit. Cleveland is 4-1 ATS (2-3 SU) over the past five summers in Week 3.
The Titans have failed to cover in three straight preseason road games, and although they’re 8-3 SU in their last 11 exhibition games overall, they’re only 5-5-1 ATS. Also, Tennessee has lost four of its last five Week 3 contests (2-3 SU).
The over is on an 8-2 tear for Tennessee in preseason play (3-0 this year), but the Browns have stayed low in four consecutive August games, and the under is 8-3 in their last 11.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Buffalo (1-2, 1-1-1 ATS) at Pittsburgh (1-1 SU and ATS)
The defending Super Bowl-champion Steelers get their franchise quarterback back for their dress-rehearsal contest at Heinz Field, where they will face the Bills.
Minus QB Ben Roethlisberger (foot injury), Pittsburgh lost at Washington 17-13 last Saturday getting 3½ points. However, Roethlisberger will start tonight, and coach Mike Tomlin said the two-time Super Bowl winner won’t be limited in any way. Tomlin said his starters will go the entire first half, and he’ll evaluate at halftime to determine whether the first-teamers play in the third quarter. Charlie Batch will replace Roethlisberger, followed by rookie Mike Reilly. QB Dennis Dixon (shoulder) will not play.
Buffalo fell to Green Bay 31-21 last Saturday as a three-point road pup, getting shut out 24-0 in the first half. QB Trent Edwards (7 of 11, 45 yards, 1 INT) went into the second quarter and is expected to go the entire first half, if not more, tonight. He has yet to lead a TD drive in three preseason contests, as the Bills opened the summer playing in the Hall of Fame Game. Edwards should be followed by Ryan Fitzpatrick, with Gibran Hamdan in a mop-up role.
Pittsburgh is 1-3 SU (2-2 ATS) in Week 3 over the past four years, and it lost to Buffalo 24-21 as a one-point chalk in Week 2 last August in Toronto. However, the Steelers have won their last four home preseason affairs (3-1 ATS).
Buffalo snapped an 0-4 SU and ATS slide in Week 3 action last summer, hammering the Colts 20-7 as a 5½-point road underdog. The Bills are on a 6-1 ATS roll (4-3 SU) in true exhibition road games, and they are on a 10-2-2 preseason ATS tear from the underdog role.
The under is 13-2 in Pittsburgh’s last 15 preseason games (2-0 this year), but the over has hit in all three of Buffalo’s games this August, after a 6-2 “under” run the past two preseasons.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PITTSBURGH
Baltimore (2-0, 1-1 ATS) at Carolina (0-2 SU and ATS)
A pair of playoff teams from last year tune up for the regular season when the Ravens head to Bank of America Stadium to meet the Panthers.
Baltimore held off the Jets 24-23 Monday night but failed to cash as a three-point home favorite, letting first-half leads of 14-0 and 21-7 slip away in getting outscored 16-3 in the second half. Second-year QB Joe Flacco (8 of 18, 120 yards) and the rest of the starters could go all the way through the third quarter tonight, coach John Harbaugh said, with Troy Smith relieving Flacco. John Beck and/or Cleo Lemon might get some fourth-quarter snaps.
Carolina, on the road the first two weeks this month, lost at Miami 27-17 as a 2½-point ‘dog last Saturday, leading 14-10 at the half before getting outscored 17-3 in the second half. QB Jake Delhomme (5 of 7, 47 yards) was in for just three first-quarter possessions, but coach John Fox said the plan this week is for Delhomme and the starters to play into the third quarter. Josh McCown should spell Delhomme, with Matt Moore and Hunter Cantwell possibly getting a little action.
Not including a 2007 home game versus Washington that was canceled in the third quarter because of lightning, the Ravens have lost consecutive Week 3 preseason games both SU and ATS, and both were on the road. Baltimore has been a mediocre preseason unit dating to 2004, going 11-10 SU and 10-11 ATS, including 4-5 SU and ATS on the road, with this being its first road game of 2009.
Meanwhile, Carolina is on a 4-2 SU and ATS roll in Week 3, including last year’s 47-3 destruction of Washington as a three-point home favorite. The Panthers are 7-3 SU in their last 10 home exhibitions, but like Baltimore, they have been a middling unit at the betting window, going 10-12 ATS in August since 2004, including 5-5 ATS at home.
The under is 12-5 in Baltimore’s last 17 preseason contests (4-2 “under” since Harbaugh took over last season). On the flip side, the total has gone high in both of Carolina’s exhibitions this year and is on a 5-1 streak dating to the 2008 preseason opener, following a 6-2 “under” run in 2006 and 2007.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CAROLINA
N.Y. Jets (0-2, 1-1 ATS) vs. N.Y. Giants (1-1 SU and ATS)
The Jets shoot for their third consecutive preseason win over their rivals when they clash with the Giants in their annual Week 3 meeting in the Meadowlands.
Despite throwing an interception that was returned for a touchdown in Monday’s 24-23 loss at Baltimore as a three-point underdog, Mark Sanchez was named as the Jets’ starting quarterback this week. Sanchez is slated to play the first half tonight with the rest of the starters. New coach Rex Ryan said he’s promised Harvard rookie QB Chris Pizzotti the first series of the second half. Pizzotti figures to be followed by backup Kellen Clemens, with rookie Erik Ainge possibly seeing late fourth-quarter action.
The Giants offense managed just 170 yards in last week’s 17-3 loss in Chicago as a three-point road underdog. Coach Tom Coughlin said he expects his starters, including QB Eli Manning, to play into the third quarter, but added that it depends on how many snaps they get in the first half. David Carr and possibly Andre Woodson will follow Manning under center.
The Jets and Giants meet in Week 3 of the exhibition season every year. The Jets have won the last two battles, including a 10-7 victory as a three-point favorite in 2008. The last six preseason clashes have been decided by a total of 22 points, with all six by eight points or fewer, and the favorite is 3-1-1 ATS in the last five August meetings.
With Monday’s last-minute backdoor cover at Baltimore, the Jets improved to 6-3-1 ATS since the start of the 2007 preseason, including 4-0 ATS as an underdog. Meanwhile, although the Giants are just 3-4 ATS in their last seven as a preseason chalk, they’ve covered in three straight exhibition games when laying more than three points.
The under is 9-5 in the Giants’ last 14 summer affairs (1-1 this year), and the last eight Jets-Giants preseason battles have stayed below the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Seattle (2-0 SU and ATS) at Kansas City (0-2 SU and ATS)
The Seahawks look to maintain their preseason dominance when they visit the Chiefs, whose preseason struggles have continued under new coach Todd Haley.
Seattle quarterback Matt Hasselbeck tossed a pair of first-half scoring TD passes in last week’s 27-13 rout of Denver as a 3½-point home favorite, giving the Seahawks’ their eighth straight preseason spread-cover (7-1 SU). Hasselbeck will be under center to begin this game against the Chiefs and likely play into the third quarter, though new coach Jim Mora didn’t specify his playing-time plays. Behind Hasselbeck are veteran backup Seneca Wallace, third-year pro Jeff Rowe and rookie Mike Teel, all of whom threw passes against Denver.
Kansas City blew a second-half lead in Minnesota last Friday, falling 17-13 as a three-point underdog. Haley said QB Matt Cassell, who is completing 58 percent of his passes for 114 yards and one TD through two games, will play through at least the first series of the third quarter along with the rest of the first-string units. Haley didn’t reveal his quarterback rotation after Cassel departs, but Tyler Thigpen and Matt Gutierrez took snaps with the first team on Thursday, meaning Brodie Croyle will probably be the odd man out tonight.
The Chiefs have lost 13 of their last 14 games, including six in a row (regular and postseason), and they continue to be a disaster in exhibition play, going 5-17 SU and 4-18 ATS since 2004. In addition, Kansas City has failed to cover in five straight preseason home games (1-4 SU), all as a favorite. Finally, K.C. is in a 1-5 SU and ATS slump in Week 3 of the preseason, getting outscored the last two years by a combined 54-7 in losing to the Saints (home) and Dolphins (road).
In addition to its 8-0 ATS run overall in August, the Seahawks are on an 8-3 SU and 9-2 ATS roll on the road, and they’ve cashed in eight of their last 10 as a preseason pup. Also, Seattle is 5-1 SU and ATS the last six years in Week 3 action, including a pair of wins over the Chiefs (42-31 at home in 2003, 23-17 on the road in 2005).
The “over” is 14-6 in Seattle’s last 20 exhibition outings (10-3 last 13), including 6-2 in the last eight on the road. However, the Chiefs have stayed low the last two weeks after going 3-1 “over” last summer.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SEATTLE
San Francisco (2-0, 0-2 ATS) at Dallas (1-1 SU and ATS)
The Cowboys try to build off last week’s impressive showing against the Titans when they entertain the 49ers in the second game at the brand-new Cowboys Stadium.
Dallas piled up 466 total yards, including 355 through the air, in last Friday’s 30-10 rout of Tennessee as a 3 ½-point home favorite. QB Tony Romo, who was efficient against the Titans (18-for-24, 192 yards), will play into the second half in this contest, followed by veteran Jon Kitna. Either Stephen McGee or Rudy Carpenter – both rookies – will finish up.
San Francisco has stopped a last-second two-point conversion try each of the last two weeks to preserve one-point home wins, beating the Broncos 17-16 in Week 1 and the Raiders 21-20 last Saturday, but the Niners failed to cover the spread in both games.
Earlier this week, new 49ers coach Mike Singletary announced that Shaun Hill beat out former No. 1 overall pick Alex Smith for the starting quarterback job. Hill is expected to start tonight despite injuring his back this week, while Smith has been ruled out with an injury. Hill and the starters are expected to be on the field for at least the first quarter but probably not the entire first half. Once Hill departs, veteran Damon Huard and rookie Nate Davis with split the QB chores the rest of the way.
The 49ers have failed to cover in three straight August contests, and they’re 1-10 SU and 4-7 ATS in their last 11 preseason roadies. San Francisco is 4-2 ATS in Week 3 of the preseason the last six years (3-3 SU).
The Cowboys have won all five preseason home games under coach Wade Phillips (4-1 ATS), and since 2003, they’re 11-0-1 SU and 9-3 ATS at home in summer affairs. However, Dallas has failed to cash in consecutive Week 3 games, with its last dress-rehearsal win being a 17-7 home victory over the 49ers as a seven-point favorite in 2006.
The over has hit in seven of Dallas’ last nine preseason starts (2-0 this year), and the over is 6-3 in San Francisco’s last nine exhibition tilts (3-1 on the road).
ATS ADVANTAGE: DALLAS and OVER
San Diego (1-1 SU and ATS) at Atlanta (1-1, 2-0 ATS)
After starting the preseason with consecutive road games, the Falcons make their 2009 debut at the Georgia Dome when they host the Chargers, who hit the highway for the second straight week.
San Diego coach Norv Turner, whose starters played most of the first half in last week’s 17-6 upset win in Arizona as a three-point underdog, told his top units earlier this week to be prepared to play three quarters tonight. That includes QB Philip Rivers, though it’s unlikely that RB LaDainian Tomlinson – who is seeing his first preseason action since 2005 – will be on the field that long. Once Rivers departs, veteran backup Billy Volek will take over, with Charlie Whitehurst possibly seeing mop-up duty.
Atlanta bounced back from a last-second 27-26 loss at Detroit with a 20-13 win at St. Louis as a 2 ½-point road chalk, with QB Matt Ryan (7-for-8, 81 yards, 1 TD) having another fine outing. Ryan and the rest of the Falcons’ starters will play through at least the first series of the third quarter. Coach Mike Smith refused to reveal his QB rotation after Ryan departs, but expect D.J. Shockley and Chris Redman to get some action in the second half.
San Diego is now 4-1 SU and ATS as an August visitor since 2007, including cashing in three straight as a road underdog. The Chargers are 2-0 SU in Week 3 under Turner, but they failed to cover in both games (which were decided by a combined three points). Turner also went 0-2 ATS in Week 3 during his previous coaching stint with the Raiders, making his teams 0-4 ATS in his last four dress-rehearsal battles.
The Falcons, who covered as a three-point underdog in the one-point loss at Detroit in Week 1, are on an 8-2 ATS spree in August, going 3-1 SU and ATS at home during this stretch. Atlanta is also 5-0 SU and ATS in Week 3 of the preseason the last five years, outscoring the opposition 121-45.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ATLANTA
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Atlanta (67-61) at Philadelphia (74-52)
The Phillies trot out nearly untouchable left-hander Cliff Lee (5-0, 0.68 ERA in N.L.; 12-9, 2.63 ERA overall) for the second game of a three-game set at Citizens Bank Park against the division rival Braves, who will counter with right-hander Derek Lowe (12-8, 4.48).
Philadelphia pulled out a rain-delayed 4-2 victory in Friday’s series opener. The Phillies remain one of the hottest teams in baseball, having won 13 of their last 17, and they are on further streaks of 37-18 overall, 6-1 against winning teams and 20-7 at home.
The Braves are still on upticks of 5-2 on the highway and 4-2 in division play, and in this rivalry, Atlanta is on rolls of 6-3 overall and 6-3 in Philly. Additionally, the Braves are 8-5 in 13 clashes this season with the Phils.
Lee has been stellar since coming over from Cleveland before the trade deadline, winning all five starts with a suffocating ERA of 0.68, allowing no earned runs over 16 innings in his last two starts. On Monday, he went eight innings against the Mets, allowing two unearned runs on six hits with no walks and five strikeouts in a 6-2 road win.
Lee is 5-6 with a 2.57 ERA in 13 total home starts this year, but in his two outings at Citizens Bank, he’s 2-0 with a stifling 0.56 ERA. Lee, who turns 31 tomorrow, won his lone career start against Atlanta five years ago, a 4-2 victory with Cleveland.
The Braves have alternated wins and losses in Lowe’s last five starts. On Sunday, he allowed five runs (three earned) on nine hits and a walk in five innings of a 7-5 home win over Florida, and that followed a 9-4 road loss to the Mets in which he gave up eight runs on 11 hits in just 3 2/3 innings. Lowe is 6-6 with a 5.11 ERA in 13 road outings this season, but he’s 5-1 with a 2.64 ERA in 13 career appearances (nine starts) against Philadelphia.
Atlanta has won both Lowe’s starts against the Phils this season, including a 4-1 road win on Opening Night in which the 36-year-old threw eight shutout innings. The Braves are on runs of 7-2 in Lowe’s last nine starts overall and 6-1 with Lowe facing winning teams, but they are just 2-6 in his last eight outings on the highway.
The under for Philadelphia is on tears of 11-4 overall, 5-0 against winning teams, 7-1 in N.L. East action, 18-5 against righty starters and 4-1 behind Lee, and in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in five straight games. However, the over for the Braves is on road rolls of 7-3 overall and 5-2 against winning teams, and with Lowe hurling, the over is on upticks of 5-2 overall and 5-2 on the road against winning teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA and UNDER
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