THE SPORTS ADVISORS
SATURDAY, AUGUST 22
NFL PRESEASON
Tampa Bay (0-1 SU and ATS) at Jacksonville (0-1, 0-0-1 ATS)
A pair of Florida rivals clash in Week 2 preseason matchup when the Buccaneers travel to face the Jaguars at Jacksonville Municipal Stadium.
Tampa Bay fell at Tennessee 27-20 as a 4½-point underdog last Saturday, ending a 7-0 SU and ATS streak in preseason openers. Luke McCown got the start last week, but Byron Leftwich – the former starting QB for the Jags -- will open with the starters today as the two continue their battle for the No. 1 quarterback spot. Leftwich will likely play much of the first half, followed by McCown, with Josh Freeman and Josh Johnson in mop-up roles for new coach Raheem Morris.
Jacksonville lost its opener at Miami 12-9, getting a push as a three-point underdog. QB David Garrard, who took over the starting job full time when Leftwich was let go prior to the 2007 season, played three series last week, and coach Jack Del Rio said Garrard will go “a little longer” than that this week. Todd Bouman and Paul Smith will follow Garrard.
The Buccaneers, who went 3-1 SU and ATS in each of the past two preseasons under former coach Jon Gruden, had won and cashed in three straight exhibition road games before last week’s setback. Tampa is 5-6 SU and 5-4-2 ATS in road preseason play since 2004, and in that stretch, the Bucs are a middling 4-4-2 ATS as a pup.
The Jags, who went 3-1 SU in the preseason for the fourth straight year in 2008 and the fifth time in Del Rio’s six years with the team, are on an 8-4-1 ATS roll in their last 13 exhibition affairs. However, they failed to cash in either home game last year (1-1 SU), and though they are 7-3 SU in their last 10 home August contests, they are just 5-5 ATS.
Jacksonville is on a 5-0 SU and ATS roll in this rivalry in preseason play, including a 23-17 road win last August laying three points.
The over has been the play in the last four exhibition contests between the Bucs and Jags, and the over is 6-2 in Tampa’s last eight preseason games, including last week’s contest against the Titans. However, the under is on a 3-1 preseason run for Jacksonville.
ATS ADVANTAGE: JACKSONVILLE
Pittsburgh (1-0 SU and ATS) at Washington (0-1 SU and ATS)
The defending Super Bowl champion Steelers won’t have star QB Ben Roethlisberger at their disposal when they travel to FedEx Field for a meeting with the Redskins.
In a Super Bowl rematch of sorts, Pittsburgh topped Arizona 20-10 on Aug. 13, covering as a three-point home chalk in its preseason opener. Roethlisberger played two series and was to start this week, but he injured his right foot late in practice Thursday, and though he traveled with the team, he’s not expected to play tonight. Charlie Batch should get the start under center and may play the entire first half, followed by youngsters Dennis Dixon and Mike Reilly.
Washington also opened on Aug. 13, getting thumped 23-0 as a three-point pup at Baltimore. QB Jason Campbell, in for the first two possessions last week, should play much if not all of the first half this week, with Todd Collins relieving, followed by Colt Brennan.
The Steelers went 0-2 ATS (1-1 SU) on the road in the 2008 preseason, and they are 3-6 ATS in their last nine exhibition roadies dating to the 2004 season, including a 1-4 ATS mark on the highway the past three summers. That said, Pittsburgh is 8-2 SU in August since Mike Tomlin took over as coach (5-5 ATS).
The Redskins are 2-4 ATS in the preseason under coach Jim Zorn, who took over in 2008. Furthermore, Washington is 5-12 SU and ATS in its last 17 exhibition contests, including a current 1-4 ATS skid at home (0-2 ATS last year).
Dating to 2005, the under is on a 12-2 preseason tear for Pittsburgh, and the under is 4-1 in Washington’s last five August games.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Carolina (0-1 SU and ATS) at Miami (1-0, 0-0-1 ATS)
The Dolphins remain at Land Shark Stadium for a second straight week when they take on the Panthers, who are on the road for the second week in a row.
Miami eked out a 12-9 victory over Jacksonville on Monday night, getting the push as a three-point home chalk, with heavy second-half rains hindering the offenses for both teams. QB Chad Pennington, who came out after one quarter last week, should go further this time around, though the starters are expected to get their most extensive play next week. Chad Henne and rookie Patrick White will follow, though coach Tony Sparano refused to reveal the order in which his backups will enter.
Carolina lost to the Giants 24-17 Monday on a fluky 18-yard fumble return for a touchdown as time expired, failing to cover as a three-point road ‘dog. QB Jake Delhomme, in for three series last week, could go a bit longer today, though Panthers coach John Fox was mum on his plan. Josh McCown should spell Delhomme, followed by Matt Moore and Hunter Cantwell, who led an 88-yard TD drive last week that tied the game at 17.
Miami is on a 4-0 SU and ATS run in preseason play, but over the past five years, the Dolphins are a more mediocre 6-5 SU and 4-5-2 at home in August. They are also 2-4-2 ATS in their last eight as a preseason chalk.
Carolina is 17-8 SU in the preseason since 2003 (14-11 ATS), but the Panthers have lost three straight exhibition roadies (1-2 ATS), and they’re 3-6 ATS in their last nine preseason road tilts.
The over is on a 4-1 roll for Carolina in the preseason, but the under is 7-1 in Miami’s last eight exhibition games, with the last five in a row falling short of the posted price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Detroit (1-0, 0-1 ATS) at Cleveland (0-1 SU and ATS)
The Lions, hoping to build on a win last week following their record-setting 0-16 regular-season campaign last year, hit the road to face the Browns.
Detroit got a last-second Jason Hanson field goal to beat Atlanta 27-26 a week ago, though it failed to cash as a three-point home favorite. Veteran Daunte Culpepper got the start and went three possessions before giving way to No. 1 overall draft pick Matt Stafford, but that won’t be the case this week. New head coach Jim Schwartz said Stafford (7 of 14, 114 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT last week) start tonight and play into the second quarter, followed by Culpepper and Drew Stanton.
Cleveland lost at Green Bay 17-0 last Saturday as a three-point underdog, meaning the Browns’ offense hasn’t scored a touchdown since Nov. 17, in a regular-season tilt at Buffalo. Brady Quinn started at QB against the Packers and went one series, followed by Derek Anderson for the next two possessions. But new Browns coach Eric Mangini has been noncommittal all week as to whether Quinn or Anderson will lead the starting offense today. Brett Ratliff will likely be the third QB off the bench, with Richard Bartel possibly seeing mop-up duty..
As bad as their 2008 regular season was, the Lions are on a 5-0 SU run (4-1 ATS) in exhibition play. Detroit is 3-1 SU and ATS in its last four road preseason games. On the flip side, Cleveland is 0-5 SU and ATS in its last five summer affairs, including 0-3 SU and ATS at home.
The under had hit in four of five preseason games for Detroit prior to last week’s “over,” and the under for Cleveland has been the play in three straight August contests and seven of the Browns’ last 10 exhibition outings overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Buffalo (1-1 SU and ATS) at Green Bay (1-0 SU and ATS)
Aaron Rodgers and the Packers will try to build off an impressive Week 1 victory when they host the Bills at Lambeau Field.
Buffalo ended a six-game preseason home losing skid (both SU and ATS) with last week’s 27-20 win over Chicago as a three-point favorite. Coach Dick Jauron said QB Trent Edwards and the starting offense will certainly play the first quarter and into the second depending how the game goes. Look for backup QB Ryan Fitzpatrick to play through the third quarter and then it’ll be Gibran Hamdan taking the snaps in the final period.
The Packers, who are shooting for their first winning August since 2002, blanked the Browns 17-0 as a three-point home favorite in Week 1. Mike McCarthy’s QB rotation is set with starter Aaron Rodgers (102 yards and a 119.6 passer rating last week) playing into the second quarter. He’ll be followed by Matt Flynn for the rest of the second quarter and the third quarter, with Brian Brohm taking the fourth-quarter snaps.
The Bills, who pushed as a three-point underdog in a 21-18 loss to Tennessee in the Hall of Fame Game on a neutral field two weeks ago, are 6-0 ATS on the road in August under Jauron. They’re also 9-0-1 ATS as an underdog in preseason play since 2004.
Despite shutting out the Browns, the Packers are still just 5-8 SU and 6-7 ATS in three-plus years under McCarthy. Green Bay has not won or covered both exhibition home games since 2002, but it has followed up an 0-4 ATS slump in preseason play with three straight spread-covers dating to Week 3 last August.
The over is still 9-4 in Green Bay’s last 13 preseason contests (5-2 at home)s, and the Bills have topped the total in their first two exhibition games. However, Buffalo’s last eight true road games in preseason action have stayed under the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: GREEN BAY
New Orleans (1-0 SU and ATS) at Houston (1-0 SU and ATS)
The Saints and Texans clash in Week 2 of the preseason for the second straight year, this time at Reliant Stadium in Houston.
The Saints had little trouble with the Bengals in their opener, cruising 17-7 as a three-point home chalk, though they got outgained 379-316. Drew Brees and the rest of the Saints starters will play most if not all of the first half. Third-string QB Joey Harrington, who threw just three passes in the fourth quarter last week, will replace Brees and may play the remainder of the game. If backup QB Mark Brunell – who saw extensive action against Cincinnati – sees any time it will be late in the fourth quarter.
The Texans went to Kansas City last week earned a sluggish 16-10 victory as a three-point road pup. Coach Gary Kubiak said QB Matt Schaub, who went 7-for-7 for 70 yards last week, will be on the field with the rest of the starters for about 25 snaps against New Orleans, which should equate to the midpoint of the second quarter. QB Dan Orlovsky will lead the offense from there and play at least through the third quarter. If Orlosvky doesn’t finish the game, newly signed Alex Brink will, as No. 3 QB Rex Grossman injured his hamstring last week and is out for at least a month.
New Orleans has won and covered four straight preseason road games and went 4-1 ATS as an underdog the last two summers.
Houston, which is now on a 5-3 SU and 5-2-1 ATS roll in August, has won four of six preseason home games since Kubiak took over in 2006, but is just 2-2-2 ATS. The Texans have won and covered four straight years in Week 2 of the exhibition campaign – including a 31-27 win at New Orleans last year – but that was all as an underdog. As a preseason chalk, Houston is just 1-4-2 ATS since 2004.
The under is 9-3 in the Saints’ last 12 preseason affairs (4-2 on the road). Also, Houston has stayed low in its last two exhibition games after topping the total in its previous seven in August.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ORLEANS
N.Y. Giants (1-0 SU and ATS) at Chicago (0-1 SU and ATS)
Jay Cutler makes his Solider Field debut when he leads the Bears against Eli Manning and the Giants.
Cutler was shaky last week at Buffalo, going 5-for-10 for 64 yards with an interception as the Bears fell 27-20 as a three-point underdog. Bears coach Lovie Smith said Cutler and the rest of the starters will play into the second quarter in this contest. Behind Cutler are inexperienced passers Caleb Hanie and Brett Basanez.
New York got a fumble return for a touchdown on the final play of the game Monday to knock off Carolina 24-17 as a three-point favorite. While Giants’ coach Tom Coughlin didn’t come out and give specifics for tonight’s QB rotation, Eli Manning will most likely play the first quarter before giving way to backup David Carr, who has been locked in a tough duel with Andre Woodson for the No. 2 job. Look for Carr to play the second quarter and midway into the third before Woodson calls the plays the rest of the way.
Chicago is now mired in a 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS funk in preseason action, and has failed to cover in five straight exhibition home games (1-4 SU). The Bears are also 3-11-1 ATS as a preseason chalk since 2002.
The Giants are 12-8-1 ATS in preseason action since Coughlin took over in 2004, including 3-1-1 ATS since last year. However, they’re just 3-4 SU and ATS on the road in August under Coughlin and 1-4-1 ATS in their last six as a preseason pup.
The over for Chicago is on preseason streaks of 7-2 overall and 4-1 at home, but the under is 8-5 in New York’s last 13 August contests (3-1 “under” last four true road games).
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. GIANTS
Oakland (1-0 SU and ATS) at San Francisco (1-0, 0-1 ATS)
After making headlines all week for allegedly punching one of his assistant coaches, Raiders coach Tom Cable returns to the sidelines when he leads his squad across the bay for their annual preseason battle with the 49ers.
Cable’s preseason debut was a resounding success as Oakland throttled the Cowboys 31-10 as a 1½-point home favorite, finishing with a 182-yard edge in total offense. Cable said his starters will play the entire first half against the 49ers, with the exception of QB JaMarcus Russell, who will play into the second quarter before veteran Jeff Garcia takes over and plays with the first-string offense for the remainder of the half. Bruce Gradkowski will lead the offense in the third quarter, followed by Charlie Frye in the fourth.
The 49ers held off Denver 17-16, but came up short as a 1½-point home chalk in Week 1. Alex Smith and Shaun Hill, who are battling for the No. 1 quarterback job in San Francisco, will both work with the first-team offense tonight and receive about the same number of reps as last week when each played a couple of series. Smith, who relieved Hill in Week 1, will get the start. Jamie Martin, who didn’t play against the Broncos, likely will replace Hill, leaving Damon Huard as the odd man out.
The Raiders have lost five straight preseason road games (1-4 ATS). In fact, they’re 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS as a preseason visitor since 2005. Meanwhile, with the victory over the Broncos, San Francisco improved to 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS at home since the start of the 2005 exhibition campaign. However, the Niners have now failed to cover in four of their last six as a preseason favorite.
The home team is on a 4-0 SU and ATS roll in this rivalry over the last four preseasons.
The under is 13-5 in Oakland’s last 18 August contests and 8-2 in its last 10 on the highway, but the over is 5-3 in San Francisco’s last eight preseason games (3-1 at home).
ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN FRANCISCO
San Diego (0-1 SU and ATS) at Arizona (0-1 SU and ATS)
The Chargers hit the road for the first time this summer, making the short trek to Arizona to battle the Cardinals at University of Phoenix Stadium.
San Diego had little trouble moving the ball against Seattle last week, piling up 384 yards (including 329 passing), but it struggled to put points on the board and lost 20-14 as a 3½-point home chalk. Earlier this week, San Diego coach Norv Turner informed his starters to be ready to play the entire first half tonight, and the team will stick with its quarterback rotation of starter Philip Rivers, backup Billy Volek and third-stringer Charlie Whitehurst.
Chargers RB LaDainian Tomlinson, who saw his first preseason action in four years with a four-carry effort last week against Seattle, will play again tonight and see about the same about of action.
Arizona came up short in its Super Bowl rematch against the Steelers, losing 20-10 as a three-point road underdog. Cardinals coach Ken Whisenhunt said Kurt Warner will once again start under center and play the first quarter and possibly into the second along with the rest of the first-stringers. This week, though, Warner will be followed by Brian St. Pierre, who flip-flops with Matt Leinart, who is battling St. Pierre for the backup job and will be third off the bench.
The Chargers split their two preseason road games last year, but cashed in both, and they’re 3-1 SU and ATS as an August visitor since 2007, with the lone non-cover coming in a 33-31 win at Arizona as a 2½-point chalk in 2007. Also, San Diego is 6-3 ATS in its last nine games after a SU preseason defeat.
The Cardinals have lost all four preseason home games under Whisenhunt (1-3 ATS), and they’re just 2-6 ATS in their last eight as a preseason chalk (0-3 ATS last two years).
Since 2006, the over is 7-4 for San Diego in preseason action, including 4-1 on the road, and 7-4 for Arizona in exhibition play, including 4-1 at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN DIEGO and OVER
Denver (0-1, 1-0 ATS) at Seattle (1-0 SU and ATS)
The Broncos head to the West Coast for the second week in a row when they invade Qwest Field for a clash with the Seahawks, who look to continue their preseason dominance.
Denver spotted the 49ers a 9-0 lead last Friday, then battled back to get within 17-16 on Chris Simms’ 52-yard TD pass with less than two minutes to play. Rather than settle for overtime, though, the Broncos went for two and failed, but still covered as a 2½-point underdog. QB Kyle Orton, whose three series against the 49ers all ended with an interception, is slated to start this contest, though new coach Josh McDaniels didn’t reveal his plans for playing time. As was the case last week, though, Simms will replace Orton, while rookie Tom Brandstater will likely see his first NFL action late in the second half.
Seattle rallied past the Chargers 20-14 as a 3½-point underdog last week and has now covered in seven straight preseason games (6-1 SU). New Seahawks coach Jim Mora said he plans to play his starters through most, if not all, of the first half, though it’s likely that veteran quarterback Matt Hasselbeck will be among the first to leave the field. Once he does, longtime backup Seneca Wallace will take over, followed by Jeff Rowe and Mike Teel, who are dueling for the third-string job.
Going back to 2002, Denver is 10-5 SU and 11-3-1 ATS in exhibition road games, including 4-1-1 ATS in its last six on the highway (3-3 ATS). Also, the Broncos are 6-1-1 ATS as a preseason underdog since 2005.
Since the final week of the 2006 preseason, Seattle has won eight of its last 10 exhibition contests, going 9-1 ATS. During this stretch, the Seahawks are 5-0 SU and ATS at home, all as a favorite.
The over is 4-2 in the Broncos’ last six August road games (both “unders” coming in San Francisco). Also, Seattle is on preseason “over” streaks of 13-6 overall (9-3 last 12) and 4-1 at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
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