KEVIN O’NEILL’S
THE MAX
The Maximum Profit Football Weekly
• Volume 9 Issue 18 December 18th, 2008 •
SELECTION: December 18th, 2008
NFL
Thursday, December 18th, 2008
@Jaguars (+6½) over Colts
Selection and Analysis by Dave Fobare
In their 31-21 win over the toothless Lions the Colts
became the first team in NFL history to reel off a 7+ game
winning streak in 6 consecutive seasons. Impressive on its
face, but the Colts are just 3-3-1 ATS over that streak, and
not one of the last 5 wins have come over opponents with
a combined record of 19-49-1. Indy is just 5-4-1 ATS in
their 10 wins as seven of those have come by less than the
touchdown Jacksonville is receiving here. And the
undermanned Lions played the Colts well despite the
travails of QB Dan Orlovsky, who made his return to the
lineup after just 4 weeks off recuperating a throwing hand
with multiple fractures.
I love playing against high scoring teams, and my database
pops a negative 32-63 ATS system based on the Colts last
2 offensive outputs of 31 and 35 points. These public
darlings have failed to cover in this spot by an average of 6
points per game and this spot is 0-2 in 2008.
As we reach the end of the season my database contains a
number of special situations for the occasion. The Colts will
finish up the 2008 campaign at home, and therefore apply
to a negative 7-30 ATS "last game lookahead" play. This
play works particularly well when our team is on an
extended winning streak. These teams are not only 0-6
ATS when entering Game 15 off four or more wins, but
have won straight up only once in that span despite an
average price of -9. Let's not forget the Jaguars either. Off
their 20-16 upset win over Green Bay they qualify in a 25-6
ATS "bad team off a win" system that won its only 2008
appearance on Cincinnati in their infamous 13-13 tie
against the Eagles.
The Colts looked disinterested against the 0-14 Lions, and
while they will not look past a 4-9 Jags outfit that beat
them 23-21 back in the third game of the season. But the
Colts have to work a bit too hard to score most of their
points. Detroit has by far the worst secondary in the league
and Peyton Manning could only go up top successfully once
all game. Indy will be able to move the chains on
Jacksonville, but with a diminished quick strike ability and a
much sexier game at home against the Titans awaiting
them next week I expect the Colts to stub their toe just
enough to let the Jags stay with them until the end.
Indianapolis by 1
THE MAX
The Maximum Profit Football Weekly
• Volume 9 Issue 18 December 18th, 2008 •
SELECTION: December 18th, 2008
NFL
Thursday, December 18th, 2008
@Jaguars (+6½) over Colts
Selection and Analysis by Dave Fobare
In their 31-21 win over the toothless Lions the Colts
became the first team in NFL history to reel off a 7+ game
winning streak in 6 consecutive seasons. Impressive on its
face, but the Colts are just 3-3-1 ATS over that streak, and
not one of the last 5 wins have come over opponents with
a combined record of 19-49-1. Indy is just 5-4-1 ATS in
their 10 wins as seven of those have come by less than the
touchdown Jacksonville is receiving here. And the
undermanned Lions played the Colts well despite the
travails of QB Dan Orlovsky, who made his return to the
lineup after just 4 weeks off recuperating a throwing hand
with multiple fractures.
I love playing against high scoring teams, and my database
pops a negative 32-63 ATS system based on the Colts last
2 offensive outputs of 31 and 35 points. These public
darlings have failed to cover in this spot by an average of 6
points per game and this spot is 0-2 in 2008.
As we reach the end of the season my database contains a
number of special situations for the occasion. The Colts will
finish up the 2008 campaign at home, and therefore apply
to a negative 7-30 ATS "last game lookahead" play. This
play works particularly well when our team is on an
extended winning streak. These teams are not only 0-6
ATS when entering Game 15 off four or more wins, but
have won straight up only once in that span despite an
average price of -9. Let's not forget the Jaguars either. Off
their 20-16 upset win over Green Bay they qualify in a 25-6
ATS "bad team off a win" system that won its only 2008
appearance on Cincinnati in their infamous 13-13 tie
against the Eagles.
The Colts looked disinterested against the 0-14 Lions, and
while they will not look past a 4-9 Jags outfit that beat
them 23-21 back in the third game of the season. But the
Colts have to work a bit too hard to score most of their
points. Detroit has by far the worst secondary in the league
and Peyton Manning could only go up top successfully once
all game. Indy will be able to move the chains on
Jacksonville, but with a diminished quick strike ability and a
much sexier game at home against the Titans awaiting
them next week I expect the Colts to stub their toe just
enough to let the Jags stay with them until the end.
Indianapolis by 1
THE GOLD SHEET
NFL
KEY RELEASES
THURSDAY, DECEMBER 18
*Indianapolis 23 - JACKSONVILLE 13—Not convinced last week’s rally
vs. Green Bay a late-season “buy” signal on banged-up, going-nowhere
Jacksonville, which was down six offensive starters as well as top CB Rashean
Mathis. Although Indy (no win by more than 4 on road) not a consistent margin
team TY, Colts (7 straight wins) better synchronized than they were when Jags
ball-controlled Indy to death at Lucas Oil Stadium Sept. 21. Colts motivated
to wrap up a wild card before closing regular season finale vs. powerful
Tennessee. TV—NFL
(08-Jack. 23-INDY 21...J.25-19 J.48/236 I.19/114 I.15/29/2/211 J.16/22/1/167 J.0 I.0)
(07-Indy 29-JACK. 7...I.24-18 I.33/141 J.27/117 I.23/37/1/243 J.17/36/2/109 I.0 J.1)
(07-INDY 28-Jack. 25...J.27-19 J.31/168 I.25/63 I.20/29/1/279 J.24/29/1/243 I.0 J.1)
(08-Jack. +4' 23-21; 07-Indy -3 29-7, INDY -6' 28-25...SR: Indianapolis 11-4)
NFL
KEY RELEASES
THURSDAY, DECEMBER 18
*Indianapolis 23 - JACKSONVILLE 13—Not convinced last week’s rally
vs. Green Bay a late-season “buy” signal on banged-up, going-nowhere
Jacksonville, which was down six offensive starters as well as top CB Rashean
Mathis. Although Indy (no win by more than 4 on road) not a consistent margin
team TY, Colts (7 straight wins) better synchronized than they were when Jags
ball-controlled Indy to death at Lucas Oil Stadium Sept. 21. Colts motivated
to wrap up a wild card before closing regular season finale vs. powerful
Tennessee. TV—NFL
(08-Jack. 23-INDY 21...J.25-19 J.48/236 I.19/114 I.15/29/2/211 J.16/22/1/167 J.0 I.0)
(07-Indy 29-JACK. 7...I.24-18 I.33/141 J.27/117 I.23/37/1/243 J.17/36/2/109 I.0 J.1)
(07-INDY 28-Jack. 25...J.27-19 J.31/168 I.25/63 I.20/29/1/279 J.24/29/1/243 I.0 J.1)
(08-Jack. +4' 23-21; 07-Indy -3 29-7, INDY -6' 28-25...SR: Indianapolis 11-4)
There is a real good handicapper from the Sportsmemo crew named Rob Veno and I never see any of his plays get posted in the Service Plays forum. Is nobody able to find out what his picks are?
He has done very well in the past couple months and he actually has a 20* play on tonight's Indy/Jacksonville NFL Thursday night game. I was just wondering if anybody has been able to find his selections because Rob Veno is another of the many good, reliable and reputable handicappers from the Sportsmemo group.
He has done very well in the past couple months and he actually has a 20* play on tonight's Indy/Jacksonville NFL Thursday night game. I was just wondering if anybody has been able to find his selections because Rob Veno is another of the many good, reliable and reputable handicappers from the Sportsmemo group.
Does anyone else utilize Stan Sharp's plays? I know it's not popular because it's only 1 play per day and everyone wants the "action". I only see a couple of other people asking for his play. I bought the winner last night that made 5 winners in a row. I don't want to continue buying if someone else can share the cost
