We rate each pick 1 to 5 units with 5 being the strongest play (
read about units). Risk 1% of your bankroll per unit (never risk more than 5% of total bankroll on any pick).
Game: Indianapolis at Cleveland (Sunday 11/30 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 5 units on Cleveland +4.5 (-110) (risk 5 to win 4.6)
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Everyone is beginning to sing the praises of the Colts again as they have won four straight games and Peyton Manning and company are back in business. I'm not as sold yet. Jeff Saturday won't be on the field again this week and we have seen the Colts struggle without him (Peyton Manning himself said Saturday is the single player he most misses). The Colts are winning games, but they have had just one big win all season. They blasted the Ravens at home 31-10. The Colts' six other wins on the season were nailbiters. They beat New England at home by 3, Houston at home by 6, Minnesota on the road by 3 in a miralce finish, Houston on the road by 4 in another miracle finish, Pittsburgh by 4, and last week on the road at San Diego by 4. They have recorded exactly one win by more than 6 points, and five of their seven wins have come by 4 points or less. This team is a few plays away from a 1-10 record. That is how tight their games have been, except the losses. Three of the four Colts losses have been by double digits (10, 16 and 20 points). They sit as a 7-4 team that has only outscored the opponent by a total of 3 points the entire season. And here they enter a potential letdown game. Their confidence is likely (mistakenly) quite high and after games vs. New England, Pittsburgh, Houston and San Diego, how can they get up for the Browns? Most think of the Browns as a deficient team. But, this is a Browns team that has already defeated Pittsburgh and the Giants at home this season, and although they look ugly at times on defense, they seem to step up against the bigger teams at home. Their game against the Ravens showed them with a lead of 27-13 in the 3rd quarter before coughing it up. Only a pick-6 kept that one from ending in a 3 point loss. The Browns have shown enough to play big here in this spot, while the Colts margin of error is very small. Nine of the eleven Colts games have had them failing to cover this margin. I like the Brownies here.
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Game: Carolina at Green Bay (Sunday 11/30 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Carolina +3 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total OVER 42 -110
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The Green Bay Packers are a seductive team. Aaron Rodgers has had a Brett Favre type season, the WR core is talented, Ryan Grant is running the ball better now that he is healthy, but somehow this team keeps losing. They are now 5-6 on the season, and their playoff hopes are on life support. This is a team that won their opening two games of the season, but has gone 3-6 since. Tha Panthers come in as the least talked about 8-3 team in the league. They don't have the glamorous running back, or the high profile QB, but they keep getting it done week after week. Coming off a loss is the perfect spot for them now. This team is big-time because they have found a top flite running back in DeAngelo Williams who is pounding out over 5 ypc. He should find plenty of room running on the Packer front seven as they are allowing 4.8 ypc and 143 yards per game. Steve Smith should find a lot of room to roam in the Packer secondary that was torched time after time last week in New Orleans. The Packers have been able to move the ball well enough and score, but other than the Bears game where they played well, they have allowed 25 or more points in over half their games on defense this season. Good offense, with an exploitable defense equals losses in the NFL, and that is why the Packers find themselves at 5-6. The Packers should get their points here, but not enough to overcome their defensive deficiencies. I like the Panthers here to seal the Packers playoff fate, and for this one to go OVER the total as well.
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Game: San Francisco at Buffalo (Sunday 11/30 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 5 units on San Francisco +6.5 (-110) (risk 5 to win 4.6)
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I think by now everyone saw the meltdown by Mike Singletary after his first game taking over this team. The fact is his team was playing heartless and soft, and he called some players out, and the Niners are now playing hard for him. Buffalo is off of a big win in Kansas City, at least in the eyes of the public. But how quickly people forget. This is a team that dropped four straight before their win in Kansas City last week. What they did last week was beat a team that has been 1-19 in their last 20 regular season games, so using that game as a marker for a team to have turned things around would be a big mistake. They gave up 31 points to a team that only surpassed that mark in a game against Denver, one of the worst defensive teams in the league. The win doesn't make up for the fact that this once 5-1 team that was allowing 19.6 ppg, has now gone 1-4 allowing 26.2 ppg. They have defensive issues, and have only gotten to the QB 18 times all season. Just remember Oakland got 23 on this team, Kansas City just got 31, and Cleveland posted 29. The Niners have hung tough on the road at Arizona, who has been blowing everyone out at home. They crushed St. Louis on the road, and matched Dallas first down for first down, with 16 apiece. Buffalo should not be a hefty chalk here, and I'll back the Niners with the points.
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Game: Denver at New York Jets (Sunday 11/30 1:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Game Total UNDER 47.5 -110
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The Broncos have been thought of all season long as an offensive giant, but the reality is they only started that way, and that image has lasted all the way past Thanksgiving. The offense was excellent, averaging 38 ppg offense in the first three weeks of the season. But, it has been replaced by one that has averaged 18 ppg in the last eight weeks! The fact is, for half a seson now, the Denver offense has been below the NFL average in points per game! The Jets defense is much better than advertised. Some of the numbers, especially points allowed, are deceiving. They allowed 35 to Arizona, but led the game 34-0 and basically played soft the rest of the game. Since that game, five of seven opponents have scored 17 or less. The Jets may be all about Favre in the press, but what has gone unnoticed is that Thomas Jones has rushed for 950 yards already. And Leon Washington is an emerging star with his speed, having contributed 322 yards on 5.5 ypc. The Jets are toning down Brett Favre, and the Broncos can't stop the run. It is likely to see the Jets pound the ball all game long, and shorten the game. The Broncos offense is struggling, and the Jets defense has been big, and I expect this one to go UNDER the total.
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Game: Atlanta at San Diego (Sunday 11/30 4:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Game Total UNDER 49 -110
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The Chargers are still thought of and hearalded as a great offensive team. Their is a solid QB, big name running back and tight end, and a cast of recievers that rank right up their as one of the NFL's best. It just isn't translating on the field. The Chargers have been held to 20 points or less in five of their last seven games, averaging just 19.4 ppg in the most recent seven. Suddenly, this team has become defensive. They have held five of the last eight opponents to under 20 points a gam. Atlanta has had a lot of success pounding the ball this season. Michael Turner has rushed for over 1,000 yards already and he is complimented by Jarius Norwood who has contributed almost 400 more. While the Falcons have been highly explosive at home where they have averaged 32.2 ppg, their offense on the road has been more like a cap gun, averaging just 16.6ppg. On the surface, this game looks like one that could light up the scoreboard. But the statistical reality is, those are false signs and this number is attractively inflated.
The Consensus Group </TD><TD vAlign=top align=right>[ College Football ] </TD></TR><TR><TD align=left colSpan=2>6000* BIG 12 CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>Date: Saturday, November 29, 2008
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