hno:
Mark Lawrence
4* (3-5)
5* (4-5)
5* Best Bet New England over Denver by 14
Don’t think for a moment that last Sunday night’s performance is
indicative of the Patriots’ talents. There were in a buzz saw situation
with the Chargers off an embarrassing loss and seeking playoff
revenge. To further complicate matters they were landlocked on the
West Coast for consecutive games. The shoe is on the other foot in
this game – sort of. The Broncos take to the Monday night road off
back-to-back home games knowing they are 3-14 ATS on Mondays
against an opponent off a loss, including 0-5 when Denver is also off
a loss. The kicker, though, are the numbers Bill Belichick brings to
the table. For openers, he is 12-1-1 ATS in his head coaching career
when playing with revenge against an opponent off a SU favorite loss,
including 6-0 when his team is off a loss. In addition, the Pats are 19-6
ATS under Belichick when playing off one-loss exact, including 10-0
if they allowed more than 28 points in that loss. Now that just about
sizes things up,wouldn't you say?
4* BEST BET Baltimore over Miami by 10
The Miami Wildcats, err Dolphins, return to South Beach off last week’s
gut-wrenching loss at Houston, a game in which they allowed the
Texans to march down the fi eld during the fi nal minute of play to turn
a win into a crushing loss on Houston’s fi nal possession. When last we
saw them at home they benefi ted from an aforementioned WAKE UP
CALL in a 17-10 win over the Chargers. They’ll dress up today as favorites
for the fi rst time in the Tony Sparano era, a role in which they’ve failed
miserably the past two years (0-4 SU and ATS). It fi ts nicely into a scenario
that fi nds home favorites just 1-9 ATS since 1990 who were road dogs
in their previous game and SU home dog winners as +6 or more two
games ago. Meanwhile, the Ravens bring their top-ranked defense into
the fray off three straight losses knowing they are 13-4 ATS in games
off 3 L’s and back-to-back spread losses, including 9-1 against a foe off a
spread win. Welcome to the world of NFL chalk, Tony
3* BEST BET Detroit over Houston by 6
The Texans did everything they could to lose last week’s game but in the
end they couldn’t. They dominated the Dolphins from start to fi nish yet
continually kept the Fish in the game with turnovers and penalties…
all signs of a team certainly struggling to gain an identity. On the other
side of the fi eld the Lions put together their most complete effort of
the season, albeit a 5th consecutive loss. The bottom line here is the
Texans are off a one-point maiden victory and fi nd themselves laying
more than a touchdown to a hungry Lion. Given Houston’s 4-9 ATS
mark in its expansion career as a favorite of 2 or more points, and the
fact that 1-4 teams off their fi rst win of the season are a wallet burning
0-7 ATS in Game Six against a foe off back-to-back losses, there is only
one thing to do here… roar
4* (3-5)
5* (4-5)
5* Best Bet New England over Denver by 14
Don’t think for a moment that last Sunday night’s performance is
indicative of the Patriots’ talents. There were in a buzz saw situation
with the Chargers off an embarrassing loss and seeking playoff
revenge. To further complicate matters they were landlocked on the
West Coast for consecutive games. The shoe is on the other foot in
this game – sort of. The Broncos take to the Monday night road off
back-to-back home games knowing they are 3-14 ATS on Mondays
against an opponent off a loss, including 0-5 when Denver is also off
a loss. The kicker, though, are the numbers Bill Belichick brings to
the table. For openers, he is 12-1-1 ATS in his head coaching career
when playing with revenge against an opponent off a SU favorite loss,
including 6-0 when his team is off a loss. In addition, the Pats are 19-6
ATS under Belichick when playing off one-loss exact, including 10-0
if they allowed more than 28 points in that loss. Now that just about
sizes things up,wouldn't you say?
4* BEST BET Baltimore over Miami by 10
The Miami Wildcats, err Dolphins, return to South Beach off last week’s
gut-wrenching loss at Houston, a game in which they allowed the
Texans to march down the fi eld during the fi nal minute of play to turn
a win into a crushing loss on Houston’s fi nal possession. When last we
saw them at home they benefi ted from an aforementioned WAKE UP
CALL in a 17-10 win over the Chargers. They’ll dress up today as favorites
for the fi rst time in the Tony Sparano era, a role in which they’ve failed
miserably the past two years (0-4 SU and ATS). It fi ts nicely into a scenario
that fi nds home favorites just 1-9 ATS since 1990 who were road dogs
in their previous game and SU home dog winners as +6 or more two
games ago. Meanwhile, the Ravens bring their top-ranked defense into
the fray off three straight losses knowing they are 13-4 ATS in games
off 3 L’s and back-to-back spread losses, including 9-1 against a foe off a
spread win. Welcome to the world of NFL chalk, Tony
3* BEST BET Detroit over Houston by 6
The Texans did everything they could to lose last week’s game but in the
end they couldn’t. They dominated the Dolphins from start to fi nish yet
continually kept the Fish in the game with turnovers and penalties…
all signs of a team certainly struggling to gain an identity. On the other
side of the fi eld the Lions put together their most complete effort of
the season, albeit a 5th consecutive loss. The bottom line here is the
Texans are off a one-point maiden victory and fi nd themselves laying
more than a touchdown to a hungry Lion. Given Houston’s 4-9 ATS
mark in its expansion career as a favorite of 2 or more points, and the
fact that 1-4 teams off their fi rst win of the season are a wallet burning
0-7 ATS in Game Six against a foe off back-to-back losses, there is only
one thing to do here… roar
