STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT
MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 1st 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Monday, 9/1/14 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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MLB Betting News and Notes - Week #23
As we enter the final stretch of the Major League Baseball season, and as NCAA College Football along with the NFL crashes onto the scene, MLB pitchers take the final spotlight in hopes of leading their teams on to the playoff trail. Which ones can we count on and which ones figure to crash and burn.
Listed below are hurlers that have enjoyed a two-to-one or better success ratio in team starts the last three seasons during the month of September. On the flip side, we’ve also listed pitchers that struggle in September team starts, winning 33% percent or less of their efforts. Note: To qualify pitchers must have made a minimum of 10 starts, with at least one start each September over the last three years.
Good Month Pitchers
•Madison Bumgarner, San Francisco Giants (10-4, 71.4%) - A consistently good pitcher who can work side to side or up and down in the strike zone, with equal effectiveness. Bumgarner will set a career-high for strikeouts this season and very likely wins, while still being far below a base hit an inning.
•Doug Fister, Washington Nationals (11-3, 78.5%) - After being brilliant most of the season, Fister has been a little off his game of late. Otherwise, he’s been sparkling all season and has excelled at keeping the ball down. He is currently on pace to set best-ever WHIP number in a season.
•Yovani Gallardo, Milwaukee Brewers (11-5, 68.7%) - Gallardo has pitched much better coming into September, with a 2.86 ERA in his past 10 assignments. While not the strikeout pitcher he used to be, his command has been exemplary and should easily surrender the fewest walks in a season in his career.
•Gio Gonzalez, Washington Nationals (12-4, 75.0%) - Injuries and inconsistency has plagued the left-hander, which is why he has allowed nearly a hit an inning, unable to fully command his wide array of pitches. The Nationals needs Gonzalez to find his game like in the past this month and have him ready to be a factor for the playoffs.
•Zack Greinke, Los Angeles Dodgers (8-4, 66.6%) - The National League West leading Dodgers’ right-hander has done everything necessary as the No. 2 starter, and is as dependable as they come. If Greinke, Clayton Kershaw and Hyun-Jin Ryu stay on top of their game, Los Angeles could be headed to the World Series.
•Jeremy Guthrie, Kansas City Royals (11-4, 73.3%) - Never a great pitcher, for some reason has finished seasons strong in the final month of the year. If the Royals are to win the American League Central for the first time since 1985, Guthrie will have to do his part to contribute to their success.
•Philip Hughes, Minnesota Twins (9-3, 75.0%) - How important has Phil Hughes been to the success of Minnesota this season? When he’s started they are 17-10; when he is watching between starts they are 42-66 as August concluded. Based on the past, bettors should know how to bet on Hughes and the Twins the rest of the season.
•Ian Kennedy, San Diego Padres (14-1, 93.3%) - For an average pitcher, Kennedy has closed the season like few with this incredible record. This season, his numbers (10-11, 3.65 ERA) are around career norms, but his sinker has had more bite with two strikes, fanning more than a batter per inning.
•Matt Latos, Cincinnati Reds (11-4, 73.3%) - The 6’6 Virginia native has been battling injuries all season long and his team has floundered, which has been no fault of the right-hander. With the Reds going nowhere, good time for Latos to pad stats for his next contract.
•Cliff Lee, Philadelphia Phillies (11-5, 68.7%) - Season is over for the lanky left-hander with what is essentially a bad elbow. Lee was put on the disabled list in May for a left elbow strain and he began to throw again on June 10. He made his return from the disabled list on July 21st, only to come out of a game early on the 31st of July again experiencing elbow discomfort.
•Tommy Milone, Minnesota Twins (12-1, 92.3%) - Moving from Oakland to Minnesota is probably going to curtail Milone’s September numbers, of which reported above represent three-year career numbers. The Athletics gave Milone numerous chances. He just never came through. Subtract this month and the 6’0 left-hander has a below .500 career record.
•Max Scherzer, Detroit Tigers (10-5, 66.6%) - While not as domineering as his 2013 Cy Young season, Scherzer has been no less effective and did his part from seeing Detroit falling completely apart. Works fast, knows how to change speeds, and added another gear when it comes to getting hitters out with runners on base.
•James Shields, Kansas City Royals (12-4, 75.0%) - Shields had his worst outing in sometime on August 25th against the Yankees (allowed six runs on 10 hits over 6 2/3 innings) and knowing his bulldog determination that could be his last poor game of the regular season. Knows how to pitch and always around the plate. On pace to conceded his fewest walks in five seasons.
•Jered Weaver, Los Angeles Angels (10-4, 71.4%) - No longer having great “stuff”, Weaver as a youngster always knew how to pitch by changing speeds and working the strike zone vertically. He will give the Angels a chance to win the American League West because he knows how to win.
•C.J. Wilson, Los Angeles Angels (13-5, 72.2%) - Since coming back from injury, not the same Wilson we are used to seeing. His control has been awful, catching too much of the plate with upper zone pitches and strikeouts-to-walks nearly even. It’s time for the south-paw to elevate his game at crunch time.
Bad Month Pitchers
•Mark Buehrle, Toronto Blue Jays (5-10, 33.3%) - Unfortunately for the Blue Jays, their season has mirrored that of Buehrle. Toronto like the crafty left-hander were super early, but as the season wore on, they started to show wear and tear and have been crumbling since. Lacking velocity, the 35-year old now wears down late in the season.
•Jeff Francis, New York Yankees (3-7, 30.0%) - New York designated the left-hander for assignment after acquiring him two weeks ago. Francis, who was acquired from the Oakland Athletics on July 11th, made just two appearances for the Yankees, both in relief. He was 1-0, giving up one run in 1 2/3 innings. Francis, 33, was 0-2 with a 5.89 ERA in 10 appearances (one start) with Oakland this season.
•Aaron Harang, Atlanta Braves (4-9, 30.7%) - Though it seems Harang has pitched better this season than any time in recent years, his numbers (10-9, 3.64 ERA) are very similar to when he was with the Dodgers two years ago with fewer walks.
•Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners (2-10, 16.6%) - Having an absolutely marvelous season, batters are around the Mendoza Line (.202) hitting against the right-hander. Very curious to watch how he pitches with playoffs on the line this month, which happens infrequently for the Mariners.
•Brandon McCarthy, New York Yankees (4-8, 33.3%) - Cannot remember a pitcher having a bigger in-season turnaround after being traded. McCarthy has arguably become the ace of the Yankees staff, one decimated by injuries. Hence, would have to think McCarthy results will improve this time around.
•Bud Norris, Baltimore Orioles (3-8, 27.2%) - Having pitched on bad Houston Astros teams and ineffective last year after coming to Baltimore, Norris has been fair this year for the Orioles. Always look to play on at home and play against on the road.
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Betting Notes - Monday
National League
•Phillies-Braves - 1:10 PM
--Hamels is 4-1, 2.09 in his last eight starts.
--Teheran is 3-0, 1.47 in his last three starts.
--Phillies won seven of their last ten games.
--Atlanta won four of its last five games.
--Under is 6-1-2 in last nine Atlanta games.
•Mets-Marlins - 1:10 PM
--Wheeler is 5-1, 2.67 in his last eleven starts.
--Alvarez is 2-1, 4.66 in three starts since coming off DL.
--Mets are 10-8 in their last 18 road games.
--Marlins lost six of their last eight games.
--Under is 4-1-1 in last six Miami games.
•Pirates-Cardinals - 2:15 PM
--Cole is 1-0, 1.50 in his last three starts.
--Lynn is 3-0, 2.19 in his last four starts.
--Pirates won four of their last five games.
--St Louis won six of its last eight home games.
--Eight of last nine Cardinal home games went over.
•Brewers-Cubs - 2:20 PM
--Nelson is 0-3, 4.77 in his last four starts.
--Turner is 2-3, 7.66 in his last five starts.
--Milwaukee lost its last five games, outscored 38-11.
--Cubs lost four of last six games, allowing 39 runs.
--Five of Cubs' last six games went over total.
•Diamondbacks-Padres - 4:10 PM
--Cahill is 1-1, 6.61 in his last three starts.
--Ross is 5-2, 2.10 in his last eight starts.
--Arizona lost 10 of its last 14 games.
--Padres won four of their last five games.
--Four of last five San Diego games stayed under.
•Giants-Rockies - 5:20 PM
--Hudson is 1-0, 2.03 in his last two starts.
--Morales is 0-3, 5.34 in his last six starts.
--Giants won their last six games by combined score of 42-11.
--Colorado lost five of their last six games.
--Completion of suspended game is before scheduled game.
--Five of last seven games at Coors Field went over the total.
•Nationals-Dodgers - 8:10 PM
--Gonzalez is 0-0, 3.00 in his last three starts.
--Hernandez is 2-1, 3.91 in four starts for the Dodgers.
--Washington lost four of its last six games.
--Dodgers won three of their last four home games.
--Over is 6-2-1 in last nine Washington games.
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Major League Baseball Major Assault
StatSystemsSports.net assault (15-4-1 last twenty *5-Star releases) on the MLB diamond continues Monday, where we'll share yet another Super Situational selection loaded with a pair of powerful Awesome Angles inside the game. Best of all it's yours - if you act now!
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American League
•Red Sox-Rays - 1:10 PM
--De La Rosa is 0-1, 6.46 in his last three starts.
--Smyly is 3-0, 0.88 in his last four starts.
--Red Sox lost ten of their last fourteen games.
--Tampa Bay lost ten of its last fifteen games.
--Seven of last nine Tampa Bay home games stayed under total.
•Twins-Orioles - 1:35 PM
--Hughes is 4-1, 2.06 in his last five starts.
--Gausman is 1-3, 4.50 in his last four starts.
--Twins lost seven of their last eight games.
--Baltimore won six of their last seven games.
--Seven of last ten Minnesota games went over total.
•Tigers-Indians - 4:05 PM
--Price is 1-2, 4.68 in his last five starts.
--Kluber is 4-2, 1.62 in his last eight starts.
--Detroit won six of its last nine games.
--Cleveland won 13 of its last 18 games.
--14 of last 17 Cleveland games stayed under total.
•Mariners-Athletics - 4:05 PM
--Young is 4-0, 3.00 in his last six starts.
--Hammel is 1-1, 2.86 in his last four starts.
--Mariners lost four of their last six games.
--Oakland lost seven of its last eight games.
--Last five Young starts went over the total.
•Rangers-Royals - 8:10 PM
--Lewis is 1-3, 6.23 in his last four starts.
--Ventura is 3-1, 2.84 in his last five starts.
--Texas lost 11 of its last 17 games.
--Royals lost five of their last seven games.
--Four of last five Kansas City games stayed under.
•Incredible Stat of the Day
Miami Marlins Henderson Alvarez is 14-4 in his team starts against the money line (77.7%) versus National League teams scoring 4.3 or less runs per game on the season, along with an outstanding 13-4 mark against National League teams with an on base percentage .315 or worse this season.
Alvarez owns baseball's best home ERA at 1.46 as he matches up with New York Mets Zack Wheeler for the third time. He is 0-1 with a 6.55 ERA in those two contests but has pitched 15 1/3 scoreless innings in winning his other two 2014 starts against the Mets.
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