GATOR REPORT
MLB 70% Super Situations:
MLB Monday: Play On MLB (AL) favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 with a team batting average <=.265 against a starting pitcher whose ERA <=4.20, in the second half of the season, 40-3 SU since 1997 (93%)
PLAY: Toronto -190
_____________________________________________________________
MLB Top Angles:
MLB Monday: MILWAUKEE is 11-1 against the money line in road games in the second half of the season this season.
MLB Monday: TAMPA BAY is 10-0 against the money line in home games versus a starting pitcher who throws more than 6.5 innings per start this season.
MLB Monday: HALLADAY is 11-0 against the money line vs. AL teams scoring 4.2 or less runs per game on the season over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
MLB 70% Super Situations:
MLB Monday: Play On MLB (AL) favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 with a team batting average <=.265 against a starting pitcher whose ERA <=4.20, in the second half of the season, 40-3 SU since 1997 (93%)
PLAY: Toronto -190
_____________________________________________________________
MLB Top Angles:
MLB Monday: MILWAUKEE is 11-1 against the money line in road games in the second half of the season this season.
MLB Monday: TAMPA BAY is 10-0 against the money line in home games versus a starting pitcher who throws more than 6.5 innings per start this season.
MLB Monday: HALLADAY is 11-0 against the money line vs. AL teams scoring 4.2 or less runs per game on the season over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
WUNDERDOG
Game: Cleveland at Tampa Bay (7:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: Cleveland +115 (moneyline)
Something has to give in this one. The Rays have been lethal at home all season, but Cliff Lee has been lethal period. Lee has not produced back-to-back bad starts all season. He gave up six runs in his last start, and only three other times has he allowed four runs or more in a game this season. He has followed those three bad starts with a 3-0 mark and 2.04 ERA. On the season, Lee has won 87.5% of his decisions, so getting plus odds is too hard to ignore. Lee has allowed no runs in four road starts and two runs or less in eight of 12. When your 14-2, 12 games over .500, pitching for a team that is 34-60 otherwise, at plus odds, you have to see the value in this one. Cleveland gets the call here.
Game: Cleveland at Tampa Bay (7:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: Cleveland +115 (moneyline)
Something has to give in this one. The Rays have been lethal at home all season, but Cliff Lee has been lethal period. Lee has not produced back-to-back bad starts all season. He gave up six runs in his last start, and only three other times has he allowed four runs or more in a game this season. He has followed those three bad starts with a 3-0 mark and 2.04 ERA. On the season, Lee has won 87.5% of his decisions, so getting plus odds is too hard to ignore. Lee has allowed no runs in four road starts and two runs or less in eight of 12. When your 14-2, 12 games over .500, pitching for a team that is 34-60 otherwise, at plus odds, you have to see the value in this one. Cleveland gets the call here.
<TABLE style="TABLE-LAYOUT: fixed" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=5 width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top width="85%" height="100%">*** EZ WINNERS MLB ***
1 STAR: (952) CINCINNATI (+$111) over Milwaukee
(Listing Arroyo and Parra)
(Risking $100 to win $111)
6:10PM Central Time
1 STAR: (966) TEXAS (+$144) over NY Yankees
(Listing Padilla only)
(Risking $100 to win $144)
7:05PM Central Time
1 STAR: (955) WASHINGTON (+$190) over Colorado
(Action)
(Risking $100 to win $190)
8:05PM Central Time
1 STAR: (957) PITTSBURGH (+$245) over Arizona
(Aciton)
(Risking $100 to win $245)
8:40PM Central Time
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=smalltext vAlign=bottom width="85%"><TABLE style="TABLE-LAYOUT: fixed" width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=smalltext width="100%" colSpan=2></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
1 STAR: (952) CINCINNATI (+$111) over Milwaukee
(Listing Arroyo and Parra)
(Risking $100 to win $111)
6:10PM Central Time
1 STAR: (966) TEXAS (+$144) over NY Yankees
(Listing Padilla only)
(Risking $100 to win $144)
7:05PM Central Time
1 STAR: (955) WASHINGTON (+$190) over Colorado
(Action)
(Risking $100 to win $190)
8:05PM Central Time
1 STAR: (957) PITTSBURGH (+$245) over Arizona
(Aciton)
(Risking $100 to win $245)
8:40PM Central Time
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=smalltext vAlign=bottom width="85%"><TABLE style="TABLE-LAYOUT: fixed" width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=smalltext width="100%" colSpan=2></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<TABLE style="TABLE-LAYOUT: fixed" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=5 width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top width="85%" height="100%">FRANK ROSENTHAL
952 REDS OVER 9 SB
954 CUBS OVER 9.5 SB+
957 PIRATES OVER 8.5 SB+
960 GIANTS-110 SB
UNDER 7 SB
964 RAYS-120 SB
UNDER 7.5 SB
965 YANKS-155 SB
UNDER 10 SB+
968 KC EVEN SB
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=smalltext vAlign=bottom width="85%"></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
952 REDS OVER 9 SB
954 CUBS OVER 9.5 SB+
957 PIRATES OVER 8.5 SB+
960 GIANTS-110 SB
UNDER 7 SB
964 RAYS-120 SB
UNDER 7.5 SB
965 YANKS-155 SB
UNDER 10 SB+
968 KC EVEN SB
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=smalltext vAlign=bottom width="85%"></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
SPORTS ADVISORS
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Houston (53-57) at Chicago Cubs (67-45)
Two teams playing some outstanding baseball of late square off at Wrigley Field in Chicago when the Astros send Brian Moehler (6-4, 4.23 ERA) to the mound to oppose the Cubs? Ryan Dempster (12-4, 2.90).
Houston has won six of its last seven and just swept the Mets in a three-game weekend set in Houston, capped off by Sunday?s 4-0 victory. The Astros have fared well against the Cubs lately, winning four of the last five, and they lead the season series 5-4. However, Chicago has won eight of the last 10 meetings in the Windy City.
Chicago has won seven of its last eight games and beat the Pirates 8-5 on Sunday to improve to 41-15 at Wrigley Field this season. The Cubs are 53-24 in their last 77 games as a favorite and 21-7 in their last 28 at home against right-handed starters.
The Astros have won five of Moehler?s last seven starts, including Tuesday when he went 8 2/3 innings against the Reds, allowing two runs on seven hits in a 6-2 victory. He beat the Cubs back on July 18 when he held them to one run on four hits over seven innings of a 2-1 win. Moehler is 1-1 with a 3.60 ERA in eight career appearances against Chicago.
Dempster has been nearly unbeatable at Wrigley, going 10-1 with a 2.72 ERA in 13 starts this season. In his last three outings overall, he?s given up just two runs in 21 innings, including eight innings of shutout work against Houston on July 20 in a 9-0 victory. In his career, Dempster is 4-8 with a 4.58 ERA in 39 appearances against the Astros.
The are 16-7 in Dempster?s last 23 starts overall and 8-2 in his last 10 versus N.L. Central rivals.
The under is 13-3-1 in Moehler?s last 17 starts and 5-0-1 in his last six on the road. The under is also on streaks of 7-1 with Dempster pitching at Wrigley and 8-3 when he takes the hill as a favorite. As a team, the Astros have stayed under the total in 25 of their last 37 games as a road ?dog. Finally, in this rivalry, the under is 36-15-1 in the last 52 clashes overall and 11-4-1 in the last 16 meetings in Chicago.
ATS ADVANTAGE:CHICAGO CUBS and UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
N.Y. Yankees (61-50) at Texas (58-54)
The Yankees go for their third straight win when they send young phenom Joba Chamberlain (4-3, 2.24) to the hill to take on the Rangers? Vicente Padilla (12-5, 4.52) at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington.
New York used a six-run eighth inning to beat the Angels 14-9 on Sunday and split a four-game set against the team with baseball?s best record, however the Yankees went just 3-4 on its homestand. The Yankees have dominated the Rangers the last two-plus seasons, going 21-6 overall, and they are 29-10 in their last 39 in Texas.
Texas beat the Blue Jays 8-4 on Sunday. The Rangers hit .303 at home, and they are 14-6 in their last 20 in front of the home fans against right-handed starters.
Chamberlain has been magnificent lately, going 2-0 with a 0.95 ERA in his last three starts, giving up just two earned runs in his last 19 innings. The Yankees are 8-2 in his last 10 starts and he hasn?t allowed more than three runs in any of those 10 outings. Back on July 1, Chamberlain gave up two runs on five hits in four innings of a 3-2 loss to the Rangers.
The Rangers have won Padilla?s last three starts and the offense usually gives him plenty of support, averaging 6.8 runs a game when he toes the rubber. He hasn?t seen the Yankees in two years, but in two career starts he has allowed six earned runs in 10 1/3 innings and split the two games.
New York is 14-3 in its last 17 games against teams with a winning record, 16-5 in its last 21 when facing a squad from the A.L. West and 7-1 in Chamberlain?s last eight outings as a favorite. Meanwhile, Texas is 23-8 in Padilla?s last 31 starts overall and 9-3 in his last 12 at home.
The under is 4-1-1 in Chamberlain?s last six starts and 5-2-1 in the last eight head-to-head matchups between these squads. However, the over is 8-1 in the Yankees? last nine overall and 7-1 in their last eight against right-handed starters. The over is 8-3 in Padilla?s last 11 starts, 9-2-1 in the Rangers last 12 overall and 22-10-1 in their last 33 series openers.
ATS ADVANTAGE:N.Y. YANKEES
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Houston (53-57) at Chicago Cubs (67-45)
Two teams playing some outstanding baseball of late square off at Wrigley Field in Chicago when the Astros send Brian Moehler (6-4, 4.23 ERA) to the mound to oppose the Cubs? Ryan Dempster (12-4, 2.90).
Houston has won six of its last seven and just swept the Mets in a three-game weekend set in Houston, capped off by Sunday?s 4-0 victory. The Astros have fared well against the Cubs lately, winning four of the last five, and they lead the season series 5-4. However, Chicago has won eight of the last 10 meetings in the Windy City.
Chicago has won seven of its last eight games and beat the Pirates 8-5 on Sunday to improve to 41-15 at Wrigley Field this season. The Cubs are 53-24 in their last 77 games as a favorite and 21-7 in their last 28 at home against right-handed starters.
The Astros have won five of Moehler?s last seven starts, including Tuesday when he went 8 2/3 innings against the Reds, allowing two runs on seven hits in a 6-2 victory. He beat the Cubs back on July 18 when he held them to one run on four hits over seven innings of a 2-1 win. Moehler is 1-1 with a 3.60 ERA in eight career appearances against Chicago.
Dempster has been nearly unbeatable at Wrigley, going 10-1 with a 2.72 ERA in 13 starts this season. In his last three outings overall, he?s given up just two runs in 21 innings, including eight innings of shutout work against Houston on July 20 in a 9-0 victory. In his career, Dempster is 4-8 with a 4.58 ERA in 39 appearances against the Astros.
The are 16-7 in Dempster?s last 23 starts overall and 8-2 in his last 10 versus N.L. Central rivals.
The under is 13-3-1 in Moehler?s last 17 starts and 5-0-1 in his last six on the road. The under is also on streaks of 7-1 with Dempster pitching at Wrigley and 8-3 when he takes the hill as a favorite. As a team, the Astros have stayed under the total in 25 of their last 37 games as a road ?dog. Finally, in this rivalry, the under is 36-15-1 in the last 52 clashes overall and 11-4-1 in the last 16 meetings in Chicago.
ATS ADVANTAGE:CHICAGO CUBS and UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
N.Y. Yankees (61-50) at Texas (58-54)
The Yankees go for their third straight win when they send young phenom Joba Chamberlain (4-3, 2.24) to the hill to take on the Rangers? Vicente Padilla (12-5, 4.52) at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington.
New York used a six-run eighth inning to beat the Angels 14-9 on Sunday and split a four-game set against the team with baseball?s best record, however the Yankees went just 3-4 on its homestand. The Yankees have dominated the Rangers the last two-plus seasons, going 21-6 overall, and they are 29-10 in their last 39 in Texas.
Texas beat the Blue Jays 8-4 on Sunday. The Rangers hit .303 at home, and they are 14-6 in their last 20 in front of the home fans against right-handed starters.
Chamberlain has been magnificent lately, going 2-0 with a 0.95 ERA in his last three starts, giving up just two earned runs in his last 19 innings. The Yankees are 8-2 in his last 10 starts and he hasn?t allowed more than three runs in any of those 10 outings. Back on July 1, Chamberlain gave up two runs on five hits in four innings of a 3-2 loss to the Rangers.
The Rangers have won Padilla?s last three starts and the offense usually gives him plenty of support, averaging 6.8 runs a game when he toes the rubber. He hasn?t seen the Yankees in two years, but in two career starts he has allowed six earned runs in 10 1/3 innings and split the two games.
New York is 14-3 in its last 17 games against teams with a winning record, 16-5 in its last 21 when facing a squad from the A.L. West and 7-1 in Chamberlain?s last eight outings as a favorite. Meanwhile, Texas is 23-8 in Padilla?s last 31 starts overall and 9-3 in his last 12 at home.
The under is 4-1-1 in Chamberlain?s last six starts and 5-2-1 in the last eight head-to-head matchups between these squads. However, the over is 8-1 in the Yankees? last nine overall and 7-1 in their last eight against right-handed starters. The over is 8-3 in Padilla?s last 11 starts, 9-2-1 in the Rangers last 12 overall and 22-10-1 in their last 33 series openers.
ATS ADVANTAGE:N.Y. YANKEES
Matty O'Shea
MLB Total Double-Dime Bet
954 CHC / 953 HOU Under 10 BetUS
Analysis: The UNDER is 10-2 in the last 12 meetings between the Cubs and Astros, with more than nine runs scored just once in those games. The UNDER is also 13-3-1 in Houston starter Brian Moehler's last 17 starts on grass and 7-1 in Chicago starter Ryan Dempster's last eight starts at home. Both of these pitchers combined to give up just one run in a combined 15 innings between them in their last meetings, and I expect more of the same tonight. Bet the UNDER as my Double Dime NL Total Play O' the Week.
MLB Total Double-Dime Bet
954 CHC / 953 HOU Under 10 BetUS
Analysis: The UNDER is 10-2 in the last 12 meetings between the Cubs and Astros, with more than nine runs scored just once in those games. The UNDER is also 13-3-1 in Houston starter Brian Moehler's last 17 starts on grass and 7-1 in Chicago starter Ryan Dempster's last eight starts at home. Both of these pitchers combined to give up just one run in a combined 15 innings between them in their last meetings, and I expect more of the same tonight. Bet the UNDER as my Double Dime NL Total Play O' the Week.
