STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT
MONDAY, JULY 7th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Monday, 7/7/14 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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MLB Betting News and Notes - Week #15
•Leake, Reds Owning Cubs As Of Late: In Cincinnati Reds left-hander pitcher Mike Leake's previous six outings against the Chicago Cubs, the Reds are a spotless 6-0. Leake will take the mound when the Reds host the lowly Chicago Cubs at Great American Ball Park (7:10 PM EST) on Monday evening. According to BetOnline.com, Cincinnati is currently -172 favorites with a total of eight.
•Braves Sizzling Hot As Favorites: Major League Baseball bettors backing the Atlanta Braves as favorites have been cashing in a big way lately. In Atlanta's last 12 when listed as a favorite, the Braves are a lights out 11-1 through Sunday. BetOnline.com currently lists them as -126 road favorites against the New York Mets (7:10 PM EST) Monday. The Over/Under is presently set at 7.5.
•Trend You Need To Know For White Sox/BoSox: The Chicago White Sox have been struggling against teams with losing records on the road recently, posting a 0-7 record in their last seven games through Sunday. The Southsiders face off against the Boston Red Sox (owners of a sub .500 record) 7:10 PM EST Monday night at Fenway Park. BetOnline.com currently has posted the Red Sox as -175 favorites with a total of 10.
•Two Worst Money Pitchers In Baseball Traded: To say Brandon McCarthy and Jeff Samardzija were in need of a change of scenery would be a massive understatement. Through Sunday, the two starters ranked as the worst money pitchers in the majors (Samardzija $-1204, McCarthy $-1115). Samardzija is on the move from the Chicago Cubs to the AL-West leading Oakland Athletics, while McCarthy leaves the Arizona Diamondbacks to join the Bronx Bombers in New York. Considering their struggles this year bettors have good reason to be wary of the two pitchers, but the move to a new league combined with the opportunity to play in front of much better teams could make them an attractive play for the rest of the season.
•Mets Place Niese On DL: The New York Mets placed left-handed starter Jonathon Niese on the 15-day disabled list Sunday with a left shoulder strain, though he does not appear to be injured. The club recalled right-handed reliever Buddy Carlyle from Triple-A Las Vegas to take Niese's spot on the 25-man roster. Niese's spot in the rotation will go to right-hander Dillon Gee, who is ready to come off the DL. He will pitch Wednesday against the Atlanta Braves.
Niese, 27, was taken out of his last start Friday after just 12 pitches when he got tagged on the left side by a line drive hit by Texas Rangers outfielder Alex Rios. Niese said after that game that he felt fine. The Mets want to give Niese a couple weeks of rest after noticing a decrease in velocity on his fastball. "There's no discomfort, no pain," manager Terry Collins said before Sunday's game. "We're just seeing a decrease in stuff. You don't need radar guns to tell you there's something going on here." Niese's ERA is 2.96, which is the best among the team's starters. Niese would not speak with reporters on Saturday night and was not available before Sunday's game.
•Marlins' Alvarez Picks Up Fourth Win In A Row: When Miami lost Jose Fernandez to Tommy John surgery in May, it needed someone to fill his role as the ace of the starting rotation. Enter Henderson Alvarez, who validated his season-ending no-hitter in 2013 with a stretch rivaling the game's best starters. Alvarez checked St. Louis on five hits and one run in seven innings Sunday as the Marlins won just their second series in nine years at Busch Stadium with an 8-4 verdict. In winning his fourth straight start, Alvarez (6-3) walked one and struck out three, throwing 62 of his 92 pitches for strikes and working at speeds from 61 mph to 93 mph.
In his last nine outings, dating to May 22, Alvarez allowed only seven earned runs in 60 1/3 innings for an ERA of just over 1.00. Only Clayton Kershaw of the Los Angeles Dodgers has a better ERA during that stretch at 0.97. "He's very consistent and very athletic," Miami manager Mike Redmond said of Alvarez. "We've needed guys to step up (since Fernandez's injury) and Henderson's been that guy to come to the forefront to give us innings and consistency." In improving to 43-45 and moving within six games of first-place Atlanta in the National League East, the Marlins won for the 10th straight time in an Alvarez start, a franchise record.
They did so not only because of his pitching but because of his hitting. Alvarez rapped three singles, the second of which started a three-run rally in the sixth inning that gave him breathing room. Center fielder Marcell Ozuna's two-out, two-run single off reliever Nick Greenwood made it 3-0 and first baseman Jeff Baker added the first of his two RBI singles three pitches later. In the eighth, catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia followed Baker's second run-scoring hit with a towering three-run homer to the seats in right off reliever Jason Motte. That made the score 8-1 and sent many in a crowd of 42,160 racing for the exits on a broiling hot summer day. "We've been putting good at-bats together, not trying to do too much," said third baseman Casey McGehee, whose RBI single in the first inning gave him a career-high 13-game hitting streak.
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Betting Notes - Monday
National League
•Braves-Mets - 7:10 PM
--Minor is 0-1, 7.52 in his last five starts.
--Matsuzaka is 0-3, 6.06 in his last three starts.
--Braves won nine of their last ten games.
--Mets lost eight of their last eleven games.
--Four of last five Minor starts went over total.
•Cubs-Reds - 7:10 PM
--Jackson is 1-3, 6.33 in his last five starts.
--Leake is 3-1, 3.04 in his last four starts.
--Cubs are 0-2 since Samardzija trade, scoring one run; overall, they're 7-3 in last ten road games, but lost last two. .
--Cincinnati won four of its last five home games.
Six of last seven Cincinnati games stayed under total.
•Phillies-Brewers - 8:10 PM
--Hamels is 0-2, 4.19 in his last three starts.
--Estrada is 1-1, 2.92 in his last couple starts.
--Philly lost ten of its last twelve games.
--Milwaukee lost five of its last six games.
--Seven of last eight Estrada starts went over total.
•Pirates-Cardinals - 8:15 PM
--Morton is 4-2, 3.55 in his last six starts.
--Wainwright is 3-1, 0.93 in his last five starts.
--Pirates won 12 of their last 15 games.
--St Louis is 5-7 in its last twelve games.
--Under is 6-2-1 in Cardinals' last nine home games.
•Padres-Rockies - 8:40 PM
--Kennedy is 1-3, 5.46 in his last five starts.
--Colorado lost last four Matzek starts (0-2, 4.76).
--Padres won five of last seven games, but lost last two.
--Colorado lost 17 of its last 20 games.
--Under is 12-5-1 in Kennedy starts this season.
•Marlins-Diamondbacks - 9:40 PM
--Koehler (6-6, 3.48 ERA) struck out seven over six innings Wednesday, improving to 1-1 with a 1.89 ERA over his last three starts.
--Anderson is 5-4, 3.91, but after winning his first five starts has dropped his fourth straight.
--Miami has won two straight after losing six of its previous eight.
--Arizona has taken 12 of 17 from the Marlins.
--Diamondbacks are 1-8 in their last 9 games following a win.
American League
•Yankees-Indians - 7:05 PM
--Greene is making first MLB start; he is 5-2, 4.61 in 13 AAA starts this year. He allowed three unearned runs in 1/3 of an inning in his MLB debut.
--Masterson is 0-1, 7.88 in his last four starts.
--New York won four of their last five road games.
--Indians won four of their last five games.
--Under is 6-3-1 in last ten Cleveland games.
•Royals-Rays - 7:10 PM
--Former Ray Shields is 0-1, 6.63 in his last three starts.
--Former Royal Odorizzi is 2-2, 2.05 in his last five starts.
--Royals won 12 of their last 15 road games, but lost last two.
--Tampa Bay won 10 of its last 12 games.
--Over is 6-2-1 in last nine Tampa Bay games.
•White Sox-Red Sox - 7:10 PM
--Carroll is 0-5, 9.60 in his last six starts.
--Buchholz is 1-0, 3.29 in two starts since coming off DL.
--White Sox won three of their last four games.
--Red Sox lost 11 of their last 16 games.
--14 of last 18 games at Fenway Park stayed under.
•Astros-Rangers - 8:05 PM
--Cosart is 4-1, 3.48 in his last five starts.
--Mikolas allowed three runs in 5.1 IP in his first MLB start.
--Houston lost 15 of its last 19 games.
--Rangers lost seven of their last eight games.
--Five of last six Cosart road starts stayed under.
•Blue Jays-Angels - 10:05 PM
--Happ is 1-0, 2.45 in his last couple starts.
--Angels won last three Weaver starts (2-0, 3.05).
--Blue Jays lost nine of their last ten road games.
--Angels won 12 of their last 15 games.
--Ten of last eleven Toronto games stayed under.
•Twins-Mariners - 10:10 PM
--Correia is 2-3, 2.70 in his last five starts.
--Iwakuma is 1-1, 6.60 in his last three starts.
--Minnesota lost five of its last six games.
--Mariners won seven of their last nine games.
--Last five Correia starts stayed under the total.
Interleague
•Orioles-Nationals - 7:05 PM
--Tillman is 2-0, 2.18 in his last three starts.
--Strasburg is 1-2, 5.40 in his last four starts.
--Orioles won six of their last seven games.
--Washington won seven of its last eight games.
--Eight of last eleven Washington games went over.
•Giants-Athletics - 10:05 PM
--Vogelsong is 0-2, 2.07 in his last two starts; Giants scored one run for him.
--Chavez is 2-1, 2.00 in his last four home starts.
--Giants won four of their last five road games.
--Oakland won nine of its last ten home games.
--Over is 9-4-1 in Giants' last fourteen games.
•Incredible Stat of the Day
Right-hander Jerred Weaver of the Angels is 19-1 his last twenty home team starts during the month of July. Weaver (9-6, 3.56 ERA) is looking to keep pace with Garrett Richards for the team lead in wins by continuing his success against Toronto. The 31-year-old is 9-2 with a 3.48 ERA in 11 career starts against the Blue Jays - including a 6 1/3-inning outing on May 11 in which he gave up just one run.
Diamond Trends - Monday
•NY YANKEES are 12-1 (+12.5 Units) against the money line in road games after batting .240 or worse over a 10 game span this season.
The average score was NY YANKEES 5.2, OPPONENT 3.2.
•LA ANGELS are 13-0 UNDER (+13.1 Units) in home games when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 54%) in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was LA ANGELS 2.5, OPPONENT 2.6.
•MINNESOTA is 1-14 (-15.8 Units) against the run line versus an American League starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.200 or better this season.
The average score was MINNESOTA 3.8, OPPONENT 6.9.
•MIKE LEAKE is 20-3 (+14.9 Units) against the money line in home games versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the second half of the season since 1997.
The average score was LEAKE 5.2, OPPONENT 3.6.
•JERED WEAVER is 35-12 UNDER (+21.6 Units) versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the second half of the season since 1997.
The average score was WEAVER 3.5, OPPONENT 3.2.
•EDWIN JACKSON is 4-17 (-17.5 Units) against the run line versus poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was JACKSON 3.6, OPPONENT 6.0.
Situation Analysis of The Day
•Play On - Any team (TAMPA BAY) - team with a poor on base percentage (<=.320) against a good starting pitcher (WHIP=1.300 to 1.350) - American League, with a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start.
(68-30 over the last 5 seasons.) (69.4%, +47.5 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team underdog with a money line of: +114
The average score in these games was: Team 4.6, Opponent 3.1 (Average run differential = +1.5)
The situation's record this season is: (5-4, +1 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (40-20, +27.2 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (106-74, +44.5 units).
•Play On - Road teams against a run line. (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +160) (MIAMI) - average hitting team (AVG = .255 to .269) against a decent starting pitcher (ERA=3.70 to 4.20) - National League, starting a pitcher who gave up no earned runs last outing.
(44-14 since 1997.) (75.9%, +30.8 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (35-23)
The average run line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 0.2, money line price: +102
The average score in these games was: Team 5.2, Opponent 3.7 (Average run differential = +1.4)
The number of games in which this system covered the run line by 1 or more runs was 27 (46.6% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0, +1 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (7-1, +6.2 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (9-2, +7.8 units).
•Play Over - Home teams where the total is 8.5 to 10 (ARIZONA) - below average hitting team (AVG <=.255) against a good starting pitcher (ERA <=3.70) - National League, with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.350 to 1.450 on the season-NL.
(75-32 since 1997.) (70.1%, +41.1 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 8.8, Money Line=-105.8
The average score in these games was: Team 4.5, Opponent 5.9 (Total runs scored = 10.4)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 1 or more runs was 68 (61.8% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-1, -1.1 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (6-2, +3.7 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (18-6, +11.5 units).
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w-thumbs!^
