STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT
MONDAY, JULY 28th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Monday, 7/28/14 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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MLB Betting News and Notes - Week #18
•Sox Consider Trade For Matt Kemp: He has had debilitating ankle and shoulder injuries that have limited his play the last two seasons, is still owed roughly $118 million on a contract that runs through 2019, and has a mixed reputation as a clubhouse presence, but the Red Sox are considering making a move for Dodgers outfielder Matt Kemp, according to a club source. With the Sox in need of more offensive production in the outfield, the right-handed-hitting Kemp could be the major piece in a trade for Red Sox left-hander Jon Lester, especially with the Dodgers reluctant to part with top outfield prospect Joc Pederson.
Kemp has had two operations on his left shoulder since 2012 and another on his left ankle in October. He was limited to 73 games in 2013, and the Dodgers determined that the loss of mobility due to his ankle injury limits him to playing one of the corner outfield positions instead of center field. Center field was the position he played in 2010, when he finished runner-up in the National League MVP voting by hitting .324 with a .399 OBP, .586 slugging percentage, 39 home runs and 40 stolen bases. He has put up much more modest numbers this season, posting a .273/.339/.429/.768 slash line, with 8 home runs and 5 stolen bases in 10 attempts. The Dodgers already have five outfielders for three spots, with Pederson knocking on the door, so it makes sense they would consider moving Kemp.
Making a trade problematic is Kemp's contract; the Dodgers would have to be willing to eat a considerable sum for the deal to make any sense for Boston to make it. They might be willing to do so for a pitcher of Lester's magnitude, though again, with no assurances that Lester would be no more than a two-month rental, that also would seem to limit how much the Dodgers would give. The Sox would almost certainly prefer a package built around Pederson. On Saturday, Dodgers general manager Ned Colletti addressed speculation that the Dodgers have some interest in Lester.
"You know what? We may not do anything," Colletti said, according to Mark Saxon of ESPNLosAngeles.com. "We've still got a club that's solid, that still has upside to it, so I think there's still more in this club. Have we won four in a row yet? I think there's still a strong run in this club as it's currently constituted. That said, we've been historically active in July and August, sometimes, and we'll continue to see what else we can do." As for the Red Sox? "It's going to be a crazy few days," Lester said.
•Holland Nears Start Of Rehab Assignment: Left-hander Derek Holland, who has been out since undergoing microfracture surgery on the left knee in January, is on the verge of beginning a 30-day minor-league injury-rehabilitation assignment. Holland rejoined the Texas Rangers on Saturday and is scheduled to throw a bullpen session on Monday. If all goes well, he will began a rehab assignment with a start at Double-A Frisco on Wednesday night against Midland of the Oakland organization.
That would put him on course to return in late August. Before the second half began, general manager Jon Daniels said the club had considered shutting down Holland until next spring but believes he can benefit from pitching again this season. “You start thinking about what’s most important,” Daniels said. “With that being said, he has worked out so hard to come back. I think there is some benefit to him from a mental standpoint to see the light at the end of the tunnel.”
•Yankees Eyeing Willingham, Other Bats, In Addition To Rotation Help: The Yankees, perhaps as concerned about their offensive issues as their rotation, are looking at outfielder Josh Willingham and some other bats. The Yankees may actually prefer Willingham to Marlon Byrd or Alex Rios, perhaps partly because of Willingham's reasonable $7 million salary and status as a free agent after the season, though Byrd and Rios haven't been ruled out. Rios makes $12 million, with a $2 million buyout of a $14 million team option, and Byrd has an $8 million salary next year. Byrd's deal does not seem overly high considering his solid production the past two years, but there may be some concern about his fit in the Bronx.
While Willingham is batting .215, he has 10 homers in only 56 games and a .777 OPS. He's always showed good power despite playing in pitchers parks, such as Target Field, and before that Oakland Coliseum and Pro Player Stadium, the football stadium the Marlins played in before moving to Marlins Park. Willingham, 35, missed 41 games earlier this year because of a fractured wrist, but seems to be healthy now.
The Yankees are known to be seeking rotation help after losing four of its original five starters, but the offense has been disappointing, sparky interest in a bat. Ichiro Suzuki, 40, wasn't supposed to be playing every day, and as we know form the leaks of the Astros notes, the Yankees had been trying to trade him previously. Suzuki wasn't the choice of GM Brian Cashman, and was instead an ownership call from the start. The Yankees may have some concernes about the ability of Carlos Beltran to hold up, as well.
•Braves Look At Andrew Miller: The Braves are believed to be looking closely at lefty Andrew Miller of the Red Sox as their prime bullpen target, with some other lefties in the mix. Atlanta has identified lefty in the pen as its biggest need, with Oliver Perez, who interested the Braves in the winter, Wesley Wright, Neal Cotts, Tony Sipp and Mike Dunn are among other accomplished pen lefties believed available in trade. Miller, a free agent after the year, is having a spectacular season in Boston's pen (64 strikeouts and only 12 walks in 39 1/3 innings to go with a 2.52 ERA), and the fading Red Sox have said they are now "listening" to trade inquiries.
The Braves in their pen currently have only one left-hander, Chasen Shreve, who was called up a week ago, in their pen. Shreve replaced Luis Avilan, who was sent down. The Braves have won more regular-season games than anyone else since 2010, but have perennially adhered to a budget of $90 million to 100 million. Since they've gone "over budget" this year with the $14 million signing of Ervin Santana in spring training following elbow injuries to young starters Kris Medlen and Brandon Beachy, they aren't expected to have room for even bigger moves. But Miller would be a big help.
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Betting Notes - Monday
National League
•Padres-Braves - 12:10 PM
--Former big league OF Lane is making first MLB start on mound; he played 499 games as an outfielder ('02-'07), has thrown 4.1 scoreless innings this year. He was 6-8, 4.67 in 19 AAA starts this year.
--Santana is 4-1, 3.41 in his last five starts.
--San Diego are 4-8 in their last dozen road games.
--Braves are 10-6 in their last sixteen home games.
--Over is 8-4-1 in last thirteen Atlanta games.
•Diamondbacks-Reds - 7:10 PM
--Anderson is 1-0, 2.25 in his last two starts.
--Bailey is 1-1, 2.25 in his last four starts.
--Arizona lost nine of its last thirteen road games.
--Reds lost eight of their last nine games.
--Under is 3-1-1 in last five Anderson starts.
•Phillies-Mets - 7:10 PM
--Burnett is 1-2, 4.01 in his last five starts.
--Colon is 1-3, 5.13 in his last five starts.
--Phillies won five of their last seven road games.
--Mets won seven of their last eight home games.
--Nine of last twelve games at Citi Field went over the total.
•Nationals-Marlins - 7:10 PM
--Zimmerman is 0-1, 8.64 in his last couple starts.
--Eovaldi is 0-3, 6.39 in his last five starts.
--Washington won eight of its last eleven games.
--Marlins won seven of their last eight games.
--Seven of last ten Miami home games went over.
•Rockies-Cubs - 8:05 PM
--Colorado is 0-4 when Flande starts (0-2, 7.20).
--Cubs lost both Wada starts (0-1, 6.00).
--Colorado lost 12 of their last 13 road games.
--Cubs lost nine of their last eleven games overall.
--Over is 9-3-1 in last thirteen games at Wrigley Field.
•Pirates-Giants - 10:15 PM
--Worley is 1-1, 5.50 in his last three starts.
--Bumgarner is 3-0, 2.21 in his last three starts.
--Pittsburgh lost eight of its last eleven road games.
--Giants lost 19 of their last 25 home games.
--Last three Worley starts went over the total.
American League
•Blue Jays-Red Sox - 7:10 PM
--Dickey is 2-6, 4.47 in his last eight starts.
--Buchholz is 3-2, 3.89 in six starts since coming off the DL.
--Blue Jays won seven of their last nine games.
--Red Sox lost five of their last six games.
--Seven of last nine Dickey starts stayed under total.
•Yankees-Texas - 8:05 PM
--Phelps is 2-0, 2.59 in his last four starts.
--Darvish is 1-2, 5.32 in his last four starts.
--New York lost three of its last four road games.
--Rangers lost 30 of their last 37 games overall.
--Under is 5-1-1 in last seven Texas games.
•Athletics-Astros - 8:10 PM
--Chavez is 2-1, 2.60 in his last three starts.
--Oberholtzer is 2-1, 3.23 in his last six starts.
--A's won four of their last five games.
--Astros lost seven of last eight home games.
--Over is 14-8 in last 22 Houston games.
Interleague
•Brewers-Rays - 7:10 PM
--Lohse is 2-0, 1.32 in his last two starts.
--Odorizzi is 3-1, 3.75 in his last four starts.
--Milwaukee won five of its last seven games.
--Tampa Bay won nine of its last ten games
--Six of last seven Milwaukee games stayed under.
•Teams' Record When This Starting Pitcher Starts
-- Lane 0-0; Santana 9-9
-- Anderson 7-4; Bailey 9-11
-- Burnett 10-11; Colon 10-9
-- Zimmerman 12-8; Eovaldi 7-13
-- Flande 0-4; Wada 0-2
-- Worley 3-3; Bumgarner 11-9
-- Dickey 10-11; Buchholz 6-9
-- Phelps 4-10; Darvish 11-7
-- Chavez 14-6; Oberholtzer 4-9
-- Lohse 14-6; Odorizzi 8-12
•Incredible Stat of the Day
Nationals Jordan Zimmermann is 44-16 against the money line in night games (73.3%) over the last three seasons. The right-hander's season against Miami has been about as trying with a 1-0 record and 6.59 ERA in three starts. That hasn't stopped the Nationals from coming away with wins in seven of his last eight outings against the Marlins, resulting in a spot-less 5-0 record and 3.33 ERA for Zimmermann.
Diamond Trends - Monday
•SAN FRANCISCO is 16-2 (+15.7 Units) against the money line versus teams who strand 7.5 or more runners on base per game this season.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 5.6, OPPONENT 2.8.
•SAN DIEGO is 37-19 UNDER (+14.7 Units) versus an National League team with an on base percentage .325 or worse this season.
The average score was SAN DIEGO 3.1, OPPONENT 3.5.
•TEXAS is 4-16 (-15.5 Units) against the run line versus an American League team with an on base percentage .330 or worse in the second half of the season this season.
The average score was TEXAS 3.2, OPPONENT 5.8.
•A.J. BURNETT is 19-45 (-28.4 Units) against the money line in road games versus an National League team with an on base percentage .325 or worse since 1997.
The average score was BURNETT 3.5, OPPONENT 4.5.
•YU DARVISH is 17-5 UNDER (+11.9 Units) in home games versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DARVISH 3.7, OPPONENT 2.5.
•BARTOLO COLON is 13-2 (+12.4 Units) against the run line versus teams outscored by opponent by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was COLON 6.6, OPPONENT 2.5.
Situation Analysis of The Day
•Play On - All favorites with a money line of -150 or more (TEXAS) - poor hitting team (AVG <=.260) against a good starting pitcher (ERA <=4.20) - American League, with a starting pitcher whose throws more than 6.5 innings per start.
(130-38 since 1997.) (77.4%, +65.7 units. Rating = 3*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -169.2
The average score in these games was: Team 5.2, Opponent 3.1 (Average run differential = +2.1)
The situation's record this season is: (25-6, +13.9 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (45-12, +23.5 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (85-24, +44 units).
•Play On - All favorites against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line =+115 to +160) (WASHINGTON) - below average hitting team (AVG <=.255) against an average starting pitcher (ERA=4.20 to 5.20) - National League, starting a pitcher who walked <=1 hitters each of his last 2 outings.
(39-16 over the last 5 seasons.) (70.9%, +31.6 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (45-10 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average run line posted in these games was: Team favored by 1.5, money line price: +120
The average score in these games was: Team 5.5, Opponent 2.7 (Average run differential = +2.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the run line by 1 or more runs was 31 (56.4% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (6-6, +1.4 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (23-13, +14.3 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (62-70, +4.7 units).
•Play Over - Road teams where the total is 8 to 8.5 (NY YANKEES) - poor hitting American League team (AVG <=.260) against a good starting pitcher (ERA <=4.20) -AL, starting a pitcher who gave up <=2 earned runs in his last 2 outings.
(141-82 since 1997.) (63.2%, +55.1 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 8.3, Money Line=-104.8
The average score in these games was: Team 4.9, Opponent 4.7 (Total runs scored = 9.6)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 1 or more runs was 112 (50.7% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (11-7, +3.6 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (51-35, +14 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (86-53, +30.2 units).
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w-thumbs!^
