THE SPORTS ADVISORS
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Milwaukee (44-37) at Arizona (41-41)
Right-hander Dave Bush (4-7, 4.94 ERA) leads the surging Brewers into a four-game series at Chase Field against the Diamondbacks, who will counter with left-hander Doug Davis (2-3, 3.68). On Sunday, the Brewers were dealt a 5-0 road setback against the torrid Twins. However, Milwaukee beat Minnesota 5-1 on Saturday night and is still on a 9-4 tear in its last 13 games. The Brew Crew is also 10-4 in its last 14 against the N.L. West and 7-1 in its last eight against left-handed starters.
Arizona, which has been in a tailspin for weeks, is currently in a 2-7 funk after Sunday?s 4-3 loss at Florida in which the Snakes blew a 3-2 ninth-inning lead. The DBacks are just 7-20 in their last 27 games against winning teams, but behind Davis, they are on runs of 18-5 at home and 11-5 against winning teams.
These two teams played a three-game set the first week of June in Milwaukee, with the Brewers sweeping the series by a combined tally of 21-5. Milwaukee is 8-3 in the last 11 head-to-head battles over the past two seasons and 4-0 in the last four with Bush going against Arizona.
Bush is coming off his best two-start stretch of the season, as he held the Braves and Blue Jays to a combined two runs and six hits in 15 innings, winning 4-3 at Atlanta and 8-7 over Toronto at home. Despite Tuesday?s win in Atlanta, though, the Brewers are still 7-21 in Bush?s last 28 starts on the highway.
Davis hasn?t notched a win since May 23, going 0-2 with four no-decisions, and Arizona has gone 2-4 in those contests. On Tuesday at Boston, he threw a respectable seven-plus innings, allowing three runs on seven hits, but he got his third straight no-decision as the D-Backs lost, 5-4.
Bush has struggled on the road this year, going 1-5 with a 6.92 ERA in eight appearances (seven starts). However, he is 4-0 with a 3.55 ERA in his four career starts against Arizona. Meanwhile, Davis is 1-1 with a 3.38 ERA in four home starts this year. The 32-year-old former Brewer will face his ex-team for the first time in his career.
The under for Milwaukee is on runs of 5-1 overall, 12-3-1 against lefties, 11-4-1 in series openers and 5-2-1 with Bush working on the road. For Arizona, the under has cashed in six of its last eight games and is 5-0-1 in Davis? last six Monday starts. Finally, the under is 6-3-1 in the last 10 clashes between these teams since the start of last season.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ARIZONA and UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Boston (50-34) at Tampa Bay (49-32)
With first place in the A.L. East on the line, the Red Sox will send rookie right-hander Justin Masterson (4-1, 3.43 ERA) to the mound at Tropicana Field against the Rays and James Shields (5-5, 3.76). Boston wrapped up a three-game interleague set at Houston on Sunday with a 3-2 loss, dropping Terry Francona?s team into second place, a half-game behind Tampa Bay.
The Sox have split their last eight games, and they?re just 17-35 in their last 52 contests on an artificial surface. However, they have won nine of their last 13 against winning teams.
Tampa Bay, which continues to surprise by continuing to win, held on for a 4-3 victory at Pittsburgh on Sunday to improve to 5-1 in its last six games and 9-3 in the last 12. The Rays are also on hot streaks of 13-3 in series openers and 39-19 at Tropicana Field dating to last season, including 26-6 in the last 32 at home. They are also a stunning 14-3 in their last 17 games against teams with a winning percentage above .600
These two Eastern Division rivals have already hooked up for three series this year, and Boston has swept the last six games, all at Fenway, after Tampa swept a three-game home series in April. The Red Sox are a dominant 98-43 in the last 141 clashes between these teams, but they have lost four straight at Tampa.
The Red Sox have won in five of Masterson?s seven starts in his debut season, including the last two. In Tuesday?s 5-4 home victory against Arizona, Masterson got a no-decision after allowing four runs on seven hits in six innings. The 23-year-old has gone at least six innings in six of his seven outings.
Shields finally nabbed a win in his last outing, allowing one run on four hits in seven innings as the Rays routed host Florida 15-3 Wednesday. It was Shields? first victory since May 9, a stretch that included three losses and four no-decisions. However, Tampa went on to win those four contests and is 11-1 in Shields? last 12 home starts and 6-1 when Shields starts a series opener.
Masterson is 1-1 with a 3.86 ERA in two road starts this season, and he has yet to face Tampa in his career. Shields is 3-1 in eight home starts with a solid 1.99 ERA, but he?s 1-2 against Boston this season. On April 27, he threw a two-hit, complete-game shutout in a 2-0 home victory, but he got roughed up for seven runs on 10 hits in 3 2/3 innings in a 12-4 road loss May 3 and lasted only an inning at Boston on June 5, allowing four runs on three hits before getting ejected in an eventual 7-1 loss.
The Rays are 1-6 in Shields? seven career starts against Boston, with the righthander posting a 5.66 ERA.
The under is 5-1-1 in Boston?s last seven games, 21-8-3 on Monday for the Sox and 7-3-2 in Boston?s last 12 against winning teams. The under is also 22-8-1 in Tampa?s last 31 home starts, and in this rivalry, the under has cashed the last four meetings at Tropicana Field.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TAMPA BAY and UNDER
Oakland (44-37) at L.A. Angels (49-33)
Right-hander Jon Garland (7-4, 4.05) will toe the slab for American League West-leading Angels when they open a three-game home series against the division rival Athletics and left-hander Greg Smith (4-6, 3.69). After getting shutout on back-to-back nights at Dodger Stadium ? including losing a 1-0 decision on Saturday despite not giving up a single hit in the game ? the Angels turned the tables and blanked their regional rival 1-0 on Sunday behind another strong outing from ace John Lackey.
The Halos, who halted a three-game losing skid with Sunday?s win, return home where they are 22-8 after a road trip lasting seven or more days. They?re also on streaks of 8-2 at home against left-handed starters and 16-5 overall versus southpaws.
Oakland completed a three-game interleague home set against San Francisco on Sunday by getting clobbered 11-1, this after losing 1-0 on Saturday night. The back-to-back losses for the A?s come on the heels of a 9-4 run. The A?s have won their last five series openers and are 5-2 in their last seven roadies, but they are just 9-19 in their last 28 games inside the division.
These teams have hooked up for two series so far this year, with L.A. holding a 4-3 edge after taking two of three at home and two of four on the road. Last year, the A?s held a narrow 10-9 edge in the season series.
Garland is 4-1 over his last 10 starts, with the Angels going 2-3 in his five no-decisions. On Tuesday at Washington, he allowed three runs on six hits in seven innings en route to an 8-3 victory. Los Angeles is 6-2 in Garland?s last eight starts against winning teams.
Smith is just 2-6 with three no-decisions in his last 11 starts, but the A?s have given him little run support in the losses, getting shut out three times and scoring three or less runs in Smith?s other three setbacks. On Wednesday against Philadelphia, he allowed four runs on seven hits in 5 2/3 innings as Oakland got blanked 4-0 at home. The A?s are 2-6 in his last eight starts against winning teams.
Garland is 2-3 with a 4.88 ERA in nine home outings this year, and he?s 1-1 in two starts against Oakland this season. On April 28 at home, he got lit up for seven runs on 10 hits in six innings as L.A. lost 14-2, but on June 7 at Oakland, he gave up just two runs on five hits in seven innings in a 5-3 victory.
Meanwhile, Smith is 2-3 with a 4.05 ERA in eight road starts this season, including a solid effort against the Angels on April 29 that still resulted in a loss. In that game, he yielded just two runs on three hits in eight innings but got no offensive support in a 2-0 defeat, giving him an 0-2 mark with a 3.77 ERA in two career starts versus Los Angeles.
The A?s saw a 5-0 under streak end in Sunday?s loss to San Francisco. Still, the under is 8-2 in the team?s last 10 series openers and 9-1-1 in Smith?s last 11 starts. Also, for Los Angeles, the under streaks include 7-2 overall (3-0 last three), 14-5-2 at home, 7-1-2 overall with Garland starting and 5-0-1 when Garland works at home. Finally, the under is 39-17-3 in the last 59 clashes in this rivalry and 28-10 in the last 38 meetings at Angel Stadium.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. ANGELS and UNDER
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