STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT
MONDAY, JUNE 2nd 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Monday, 6/2/14 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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MLB Betting News and Notes - Week #10
•Marlins A Great Bet In Interleague Play: The Miami Marlins host the Tampa Bay Rays at Marlins Park Monday and are entering the game on fire against the American League. The Fish are 8-0 in their last eight interleague ball games. Miami has been dynamite at home all season long, owning the top home record in Major League Baseball. The Rays have struggled mightily this season and are in the basement of the American League East. Chris Archer takes the mound for the Rays while Henderson Alvarez gets the start for the Marlins.
•Over A Hot Bet When Indians Face Red Sox: The Cleveland Indians host the Boston Red Sox in the opener of a three-game series Monday and Over bettors will be looking for their recent trends to continue as the two clubs meet for the first time in 2014. The clubs went 6-0-1 Over/Under in their seven meetings last seasons and have a record of 7-0-1 O/U dating back to their last meeting of 2012. Monday's scheduled starters are John Lackey for the BoSox and Justin Masterson for the Indians. They met last season in an 8-1 Red Sox triumph with a closing total of 9, finishing as a push.
•Yankees' Phelps Lights Out At Home: A pitcher's duel could be on its way to The Bronx when the New York Yankees face off against the Minnesota Twins Monday evening. David Phelps (1-2, 3.38 ERA) takes the mound for the Yanks while Felix Hernandez (7-1, 2.57 ERA) gets the call for the Mariners. In Phelps' last nine starts at Yankees stadium, the Yankees are 8-1. They'll need all the pitching help they can get against Hernandez, one of the top pitchers in the game.
•Buehrle Grabs 10th Win As Jays Top Royals: At the start of every baseball season, you can count on a few things from Mark Buehrle. His win total will be in double-digits and he will log more than 200 innings and he will do it all in a hurry. For the past 13 seasons, it has been automatic. But even Buehrle, the master of consistency could not have predicted that in this, his 14th big-league season, he would reach double-digits in wins on June 1, with still four months left in the season. We know he likes to work fast, but this is ridiculous.
In his 12th start of the 2014 season, Buehrle racked up his Major League Baseball-leading 10th win Sunday afternoon at the Rogers Centre, a 4-0 thing of simple beauty over the Kansas City Royals to earn a split of the four-game series. He worked eight innings, allowed six hits, walked one and, with help from his defense, did not allow a base-runner to reach third. In only one inning did he allow more than one runner to reach base. And he did it all in 134 minutes.
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Betting Notes - Monday
•Hot Pitchers
-- Colon is 2-0, 1.86 in his last three starts. RHernandez is 1-1, 1.85 in his last four outings.
-- FHernandez is 4-0, 2.30 in his last four starts.
-- Lackey is 2-1, 2.81 in his last four starts.
-- Gibson is 1-1, 3.00 in his last three starts.
-- Cobb is 1-1, 2.05 in his last four starts.
-- Kershaw is 1-1, 2.07 in his last two starts. Quintana is 2-2, 3.16 in his last five starts.
•Cold Pitchers
-- Morton is 1-3, 4.50 in his last four starts. Stauffer is 1-1, 11.81 in his two starts this season.
-- Phelps is 0-2, 4.85 in his last two starts.
-- Masterson is 0-3, 5.89 in his last four starts.
-- Garza is 0-1, 5.76 in his last four starts.
-- Wolf allowed six runs in five IP in his first '14 start.
-- Miller/Duffy are both 0-2, 9.90 in their last two starts.
•Totals
-- Seven of last ten Met games stayed under total.
-- Under is 8-4 in Pittsburgh's last twelve road games.
-- Eight of last nine Cleveland home games went over; last five Boston games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 5-0-1 in last six New York home games.
-- Last six games at Miller Park went over the total.
-- Eight of last eleven Tampa Bay road games stayed under.
-- Four of last five St Louis games went over the total.
-- Ten of last twelve Dodger home games went over total.
•Hot Teams
-- Mets won five of their last six games.
-- Pirates won three of its last four games.
-- Indians won its last six home games. Boston won last seven games, after losing their previous ten.
-- Mariners are 8-3 in their last eleven series openers.
-- Brewers won four of their last five games.
-- White Sox are 8-5 in their last thirteen games.
•Cold Teams
-- Phillies lost three of their last four games.
-- Padres are 5-8 in their last thirteen games.
-- Yankees lost nine of its last thirteen home games.
-- Marlins lost their last four home games. Tampa Bay lost its last eight games on foreign soil.
-- Twins lost seven of its last ten games.
-- Cardinals lost four of their last five games. Kansas City lost five of its last seven games.
-- Dodgers are 8-13 in their last 21 home games.
Diamond Trends - Monday
•LA DODGERS are 12-22 (-21.6 Units) against the money line in home games versus a bad bullpen that blows 38% or more of their save opportunities over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was LA DODGERS 3.4, OPPONENT 4.8.
•MILWAUKEE is 12-0 OVER (+12.2 Units) in home games versus an American League team with an on base percentage .320 or worse over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MILWAUKEE 6.7, OPPONENT 5.8.
•CLEVELAND is 3-13 (-15.3 Units) against the run line versus an American League starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better this season.
The average score was CLEVELAND 3.3, OPPONENT 6.6.
•MATT GARZA is 15-2 (+12.8 Units) against the money line in home games versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was GARZA 5.4, OPPONENT 3.5.
•KYLE GIBSON is 11-1 OVER (+10.0 Units) versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was GIBSON 5.4, OPPONENT 5.7.
•RANDY WOLF is 0-10 (-12.4 Units) against the run line versus American League teams scoring 4.2 or less runs/game on the season since 1997.
The average score was WOLF 3.0, OPPONENT 5.3.
Situation Analysis of The Day
•Play Against - Road teams with a money line of -100 to -150 (SEATTLE) - below average hitting team (AVG <=.265) against an excellent starting pitcher (ERA <=3.20) -American League, with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.100 over his last 10 games.
(41-11 over the last 5 seasons.) (78.8%, +28.4 units. Rating = 3*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -118.6
The average score in these games was: Team 5.1, Opponent 3.3 (Average run differential = +1.8)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0, +0 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (15-5, +8.6 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (51-20, +26.6 units).
•Play On - All teams against a run line. (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +160) (MIAMI) - average National League offensive team (4.3 to 4.8 runs/game) against a good American League starter (ERA<=4.20), with a mediocre bullpen whose WHIP is 1.450 to 1.550 on the season.
(45-16 since 1997.) (73.8%, +31.3 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (37-24)
The average run line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 0.6, money line price: +105
The average score in these games was: Team 4.7, Opponent 4.2 (Average run differential = +0.5)
The number of games in which this system covered the run line by 1 or more runs was 34 (55.7% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0, +0 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (3-0, +3 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (7-0, +8.4 units).
•Play Over - All teams where the total is 7 or less (SAN DIEGO) - horrible offensive team - scoring <=3.3 runs/game on the season (Nation League) against opponent terrible offensive team - scoring <=3.8 runs/game on the season (NL).
(55-19 since 1997.) (74.3%, +36.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The average total posted in these games was: 6.7, Money Line=+100.7
The average score in these games was: Team 4.2, Opponent 4.3 (Total runs scored = 8.6)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 1 or more runs was 40 (51.3% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (10-4, +6.5 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (43-14, +29.4 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (52-16, +36.4 units).
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w-thumbs!^
