STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT
MONDAY, JUNE 15th 2015
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Monday, 6/15/15 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2015 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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Rounding The Bases – Monday
Please take note: Everything from Monday thru Thursday this week is interleague. Remember, there is a DH used in American League parks, no DH in National League parks. The AL has a slight edge over the NL in interleague matchups this season, owning a 48-41 record heading into a packed slate of IL action Monday. Here is a look at the three best interleague record in the bigs, and a look at the three worst.
•Three Best
--Los Angeles Dodgers: 3-0
--Houston Astros: 4-1
--San Francisco Giants: 4-1
•Three Worst
--Colorado Rockies: 0-2
--Cincinnati Reds: 1-7
--Pittsburgh Pirates, Baltimore Orioles, Seattle Mariners: 1-4
Interleague
•White Sox @ Pirates
--Rodon is 1-0, 1.85 in his last four starts, three of which stayed under.
--Liriano is 2-1, 1.67 in his last four starts; over is 3-1-1 in his last five.
--White Sox won eight of last nine games with Pittsburgh; last three games got over the total, but teams haven't met since 2010. Chicago lost last four away games, scoring 11 runs- four of their last six games stayed under. Pirates won last four games, allowing three runs- their last seven games stayed under.
•Reds @ Tigers
--Moscot is 1-1, 4.91 in his first two MLB starts.
--Sanchez is 1-2, 2.49 in his last three starts (under 2-0-1).
--Detroit won four of last five games with Cincinnati; four of last six series tilts went over total- teams haven't met since 2012. Reds lost three of last four games- over is 6-4 in their last ten. Detroit won five of its last seven games, with five of the seven going over the total.
•Phillies @ Orioles
--Harang is 0-4, 6.46 in his last four starts; under is 5-3-2 in his last ten.
--Chen is 2-3 3.45 in his last seven starts; under is 7-0-1 in his last eight.
--Phillies lost seven of last nine games with Baltimore; four of last five went over-- teams haven't met since '12. Philly lost its last six games, scoring total of 11 runs- their last four games stayed under. Baltimore won six of its last seven games; three of their last four went over.
•Nationals @ Rays
--Gonzalez is 0-1, 4.08 in his last three starts; five of his last seven went over.
--Ramirez is 3-0 2.03 in his last three starts; all three stayed under.
--Home side won seven of last eight Washington-Tampa Bay games; under is 5-2-1 in those eight games. Nationals won last two games, allowing two runs; four of their last five games went over. Tampa Bay won four of its last five games; three of their last four went over.
•Braves @ Red Sox
--Perez got a one-inning (9 PT) save Saturday night; he is 2-0, 2.10 in his five starts; three of his last four went over.
--Porcello is 0-4, 7.30 in his last four starts.
--Boston lost last six games, allowing 43 runs; over is 3-0-1 in their last four. Red Sox won their last six games with Atlanta; four of those six games went over total. Braves lost three of last four games; six of last seven went over.
•Blue Jays @ Mets
--Buehrle is 2-0, 2.25 in his last three starts; under is 3-1-1 in his last five.
--Syndergaard is 1-3, 5.79 in his last four starts; four of his last five went under.
--Toronto won its last 11 games, scoring 38 runs in last four; over is 5-1-2 in their last eight. Mets won three of last four games; their last five went over. Jays lost six of last nine games against the Mets; teams haven't met since '12..
•Yankees @ Marlins
--Tanaka is 4-0, 1.95 in his last five starts; his last three stayed under.
--Koehler is 1-1, 6.35 in his last three starts; under is 3-1-1 in his last five.
--Yankees-Marlins haven't played since 2009; Miami won three of last four series games. New York lost three of last four games; three of the four went over total. Marlins won three of last four games; under is 5-0-1 in their last six.
•Indians @ Cubs
--Bauer is 2-1, 1.61 in his last four road starts (under 3-0-1).
--Arriera is 2-0, 3.00 in his last two starts; three of his last four went over.
--Indians-Cubs haven't met since 2009; Cubs won last four in series, scoring a total of 29 runs. Chicago won six of their last eight games. Cleveland lost five of its last seven games- they scored 17 runs in last six games.
•Dodgers @ Rangers
--Frias is 1-1, 3.05 in his last three starts; three of his last four road starts went under the total.
--Gallardo is 2-0, 2.52 in his last four starts; four of his last six stayed under.
--Dodgers won four of last five games vs. Texas, but teams haven't met 2009; last four series games stayed under. LA won five of its last six games; six of their last nine games stayed under. Rangers are 3-4 in their last seven games; eight of their last ten stayed under.
•Rockies @ Astros
--Bettis is 2-1, 2.30 in his last four starts; six of his last nine went over.
--Keuchel is 1-1, 1.64 in his last three starts; his last five stayed under.
--Colorado lost three of last four games with Houston; three of the four games stayed under. Rockies lost four of last five games overall; their last six stayed under total. Astros lost eight of last ten; their last three all went over.
•Royals @ Brewers
--Volquez is 3-1, 2.90 in his last five starts (under 3-2).
--Lohse is 0-3, 8.14 in his last four starts, three of which went over.
--Royals won last four games with Milwaukee; last five stayed under, but teams have not met since 2012. KC won four of their last six games, allowing 13 runs; under is 10-1-1 in its last twelve games. Brewers lost last two games, scoring two runs; over is 3-1 in their last four games.
•Twins @ Cardinals
--May is 2-1, 2.77 in his last four starts, three of which stayed under.
--Lackey is 3-0, 1.63 in his last four home starts; four of his last five home starts stayed under- he got pounded in his last start, but that was in Denver.
--Minnesota lost seven of last nine games; five of last eight went under total. Cardinals won eight of last 11 games; seven of last eight stayed under- they won four of last six games with Minnesota- under is 9-0-1 in last ten series games, but teams are meeting for first time since 2009.
•Diamondbacks @ Angels
--Ray is 1-1, 1.53 in his last three starts, all of which stayed under.
--Weaver is 1-2 6.41 in his last three starts; six of his last eight stayed under.
--Angels won seven of last nine games with Arizona; four of last five stayed under- teams are meeting for the first time since 2012. LA won three of its last four games; three of the four went over total. D'backs just swept Giants in the Bay Area, allowing two runs in three games- four of their last five stayed under.
•Athletics @ Padres
--Former Padre Hahn is 2-1, 3.16 in his last four starts; his last three went over.
--Former Athletic Ross is 1-3, 4.20 in his last five starts (under 3-1-1).
--Oakland lost five of last six road games; they won five of last seven games versus San Diego- six of last eight series games went over. Padres lost four of their last six games; they scored seven runs in last three games.
•Mariners @ Giant
--Walker is 2-1, 1.64 in his last three starts; his last four road starts went over.
--Hudson is 2-1, 3.32 in his last three starts.
--Giants lost their last eight home games, scored two runs in last three games; they're 2-8 in last ten games with Seattle, all of which were played in Seattle-- five of last seven stayed under. Mariners lost three of last four games; they've been shut out in four of last nine games, but four of last five went over.
•Teams' Record When This Starting Pitcher Starts
-- CWS-Pitt-- Rodon 4-2; Liriano 3-9
-- Cin-Det-- Moscot 1-1; Sanchez 4-9
-- Phil-Balt-- Harang 5-8; Chen 7-5
-- Wsh-TB-- Gonzalez 8-4; Ramirez 6-2
-- Atl-Bos-- Perez 3-2; Porcello 6-6
-- Tor-NYM-- Buehrle 8-4; Syndergaard 2-4
-- NYY-Mia-- Tanaka 5-1; Koehler 6-6
-- Clev-Cubs-- Bauer 6-6; Arrieta 7-5
-- LA-Tex-- Frias 4-4; Gallardo 6-7
-- Col-Hst-- Bettis 5-1; Keuchel 9-4
-- KC-Mil-- Volquez 8-4; Lohse 5-8
-- Min-StL-- May 6-5; Lackey 6-6
-- Az-LAA-- Ray 1-2; Weaver 6-7
-- A's-SD-- Hahn 4-8; Ross 5-8
-- Sea-SF-- Walker 4-8; Hudson 6-6
•Times This Starting Pitcher Allowed A Run In First Inning
-- CWS-Pitt-- Rodon 1-6; Liriano 2-12
-- Cin-Det-- Moscot 1-2; Sanchez 3-13
-- Phil-Balt-- Harang 4-13; Chen 3-12
-- Wsh-TB-- Gonzalez 2-12; Ramirez 3-8
-- Atl-Bos-- Perez 2-5; Porcello 2-12
-- Tor-NYM-- Buehrle 7-12; Syndergaard 1-6
-- NYY-Mia-- Tanaka 1-6; Koehler 1-12
-- Clev-Cubs-- Bauer 1-12;Arrieta 4-12
-- LA-Tex-- Frias 3-8; Gallardo 5-13
-- Col-Hst-- Bettis 1-6; Keuchel 3-13
-- KC-Mil-- Volquez 3-12; Lohse 5-13
-- Min-StL-- May 4-11; Lackey 3-12
-- Az-LAA-- Ray 0-3; Weaver 3-13
-- A's-SD-- Hahn 5-12; Ross 4-13
-- Sea-SF-- Walker 3-12; Hudson 3-12
•Incredible Stat of the Day
Toronto Blue Jays Mark Buehrle is a spot-less 12-0 against the money line against National League East opponents since 1997, and has logged an Incredible 17-5 against the money line ledger (77.2%) after a win over the last two seasons. The 6’2” left-hander is making his third straight start against an NL East team after allowing two runs and eight hits over six innings in a no-decision against Miami on Tuesday evening. The veteran scattered six hits in a shutout of the Washington Nationals in his previous turn. Buehrle has yet to earn a win against the Mets, owning a 0-3 record with a 4.39 ERA in four starts.
New York, 24-11 at home, will face the all-time winningest pitcher in interleague play with Buehrle going 30-10 in 51 starts. He's 5-2 with a 1.97 ERA in nine starts against National League teams since joining the Blue Jays in 2013 and is 3-1 with a 1.25 ERA in his last five. Michael Cuddyer has faced Buehrle more than any other hitter, batting .318 in 110 at-bats with 11 doubles and three home runs.
Diamond Trends - Monday
•COLORADO is 4-19 (-19.3 Units) against the money line versus an American League team with a team batting average of .260 or worse over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was COLORADO 3.0, OPPONENT 4.9.
•WASHINGTON is 19-4 OVER (+14.8 Units) versus an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game this season.
The average score was WASHINGTON 6.0, OPPONENT 5.3.
•CLEVELAND is 8-24 (-25.3 Units) against the run line in road games versus an National League team with an on base percentage .315 or worse since 1997.
The average score was CLEVELAND 2.7, OPPONENT 4.9.
•EDINSON VOLQUEZ is 35-14 (+21.9 Units) against the money line versus an National League team with a team batting average of .250 or worse since 1997.
The average score was VOLQUEZ 4.6, OPPONENT 3.4.
•JAKE ARRIETA is 22-5 OVER (+17.1 Units) versus American League teams scoring 4.7 or less runs/game on the season since 1997.
The average score was ARRIETA 6.2, OPPONENT 5.3.
•MARK BUEHRLE is 45-27 (+20.6 Units) against the run line when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 54%) since 1997.
The average score was BUEHRLE 5.1, OPPONENT 3.9.
Situational Analysis of The Day
•Play On - Road underdogs with a money line of +150 or more (CHI WHITE SOX) - with a starting pitcher with poor control (more than 2.75 BB's/start) against opponent with a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start, very bad American League offensive team (<=4.2 runs/game) against a team with a very good bullpen (ERA<=3.33).
(34-19 since 1997.) (64.2%, +40.5 units. Rating = 5*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team underdog with a money line of: +174.9
The average score in these games was: Team 4.7, Opponent 4.3 (Average run differential = +0.4)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0, +1.8 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (11-7, +13.6 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (21-10, +27.1 units).
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