STATSYSTEMS SPORTS STAT/SHEETS, 5/19/14
NATIONAL BASKETBALL ASSOCIATION
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Monday, 5/19/14 NBA Information *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 National Basketball Association season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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NBA Playoff Journal (May 18)
FIVE of the eight first-round series went the full seven games (a record since those series were expanded to the best-of-seven) but none of the four second round series made it past six games. The Heat and Spurs dispatched of the Nets and Blazers, respectively, in five games. The Pacers and Thunder needed six games to put away the Wizards and Clippers, respectively.
Home teams have struggled mightily in the 2014 playoffs but still, the two conference finals each feature the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds. Home teams are just barely winning half their games, checking in at 38-34 (.528). We don't remember a postseason when they've struggled this much. From a betting perspective, home teams have been HUGE 'money-burners,' going 27-42-3 ATS, which is a woeful 39.1 percent, leaving bettors minus-19.2 net games if playing exclusively on home teams. The 2014 playoffs have also been good to "over players," although SIX of the last seven games have gone under the total. Still, as the conference finals get underway, there have been 42 overs and 30 unders through 72 games, a 58.3% win rate favoring the over.
We've here at StatSystemsSports.net noted each postseason in recent years that playing the "Zig-Zag" theory has been like 'kissing your sister" for quite awhile now. "Zig-Zaggers" opened strong this postseason but on the eve of the conference finals, check in at 32-25-3 ATS. That's 56.1 percent or plus-4.5 net games. Let's see how it plays out these last three series.
The Eastern Conference finals is a rematch from last year, when the Heat ousted the Pacers in seven games. The Pacers and Heat spent the entire regular season hearing about a rematch, with the Pacers almost KNOWING that if they were to have any chance of dethroning the two-time defending champs, they'd have to earn the home court edge by finishing the regular season with the East's best record. While it wasn't always 'pretty,' the Pacers did just that,
Indiana finished two games better than Miami, due in large part to an NBA-best 35-6 home record plus a defense which finished second in points allowed (92.3 per) and first in opponents FG percentage (42.0%). Indiana has struggled in TY's postseason, needing seven games to get past the 38-44 Hawks and six games to slip by the Wizards, a franchise that hasn't gotten past the second round of the postseason since the 1970s!
However, in the end, these two Eastern Conference heavyweights will meet in the most intriguing 'fight' of the year, Sunday afternoon at Bankers Life Fieldhouse. There is the possibility of a head-to-head matchup between the league's "undisputed" best player (LBJ) and the NBA's next young superstar, Paul George. There are battle lines drawn between Miami's perimeter shooters and Indiana's tough inside guys. We noted Indiana's top-ranked defense (42%) and add here that Miami was the NBA's best shooting team (50.1%). This is truly strength versus strength.
Indiana has the home court edge but is a shockingly poor 3-4 straight-up at home in the 2014 playoffs, so it's no surprise the two-time defending champs are favored in this series. However, at about 4-to-1, Miami may be more of a favorite than many thought. Game #1 is at 3:30 EST on ABC and the Heat are favored by 2 1/2 points (total is 181 1/2). Join us tomorrow, when Monday's Playoff Journal recaps Game #1 of Miami/Indiana and offers a preview of the Western Conference finals between Oklahoma City and San Antonio.
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Western Conference Finals
#503 OKLAHOMA CITY @ #504 SAN ANTONIO
(TV: 9:00 PM EST, TNT - Line: Spurs -5.5, Total: 208.5) - Tony Parker will be in the lineup when the San Antonio Spurs open the Western Conference finals against the visiting Oklahoma City Thunder on Monday night. Parker suffered a hamstring injury in Wednesday’s series-clinching victory over the Portland Trail Blazers in the conference semifinals but participated in practice on Sunday and pronounced himself ready afterward. The Thunder won all four regular-season meetings with the Spurs but will be without valuable power forward Serge Ibaka (calf) for the series.
Oklahoma City standout Kevin Durant posted nine 30-point outings while averaging 31.4 points during the first two rounds of the postseason and is hoping to lead the Thunder past San Antonio in the conference finals for the second time. Oklahoma City, which is the West finals for the third time in four seasons, defeated the Spurs in six games in 2012 to reach the NBA Finals for the lone time since the franchise relocated from Seattle. San Antonio swept the Memphis Grizzlies in four games in last season’s conference finals before falling to the Miami Heat in the NBA Finals. The Spurs are hoping their vaunted veteran trio of power forward Tim Duncan, guard Manu Ginobili and Parker will hold up for another dash to the finals.
•ABOUT THE THUNDER (67-28 SU, 50-42-3 ATS): Beating the Spurs without Ibaka will be a challenge and rookie Steven Adams and veteran Nick Collison will be asked to plug the gap. It is a huge hole to fill considering Ibaka averaged 14 points, 11.5 rebounds and four blocked shots during Oklahoma City’s season sweep of San Antonio. Adams played 40 minutes in the series-clinching victory over the Los Angeles Clippers on Thursday, posting a double-double of 10 points and 11 rebounds as he displayed that he can do more than be an antagonist. Collison averaged 11.2 minutes during the first two rounds of the playoffs and could double that amount against the Spurs.
•ABOUT THE SPURS (70-24 SU, 50-44-0 ATS): Parker addressed San Antonio’s problems with the Thunder this season on Sunday and expressed that the club’s ball movement has to improve. “We need to execute a lot better, because against them you can’t go half-speed,” Parker told reporters. “You have to go full speed and we have to be perfect because they are younger than us and they’re more athletic than us, so everything has to be more perfect.” San Antonio will also be looking for another strong series from small forward Kawhi Leonard, who averaged 17 points, 7.6 rebounds, 2.8 steals and made 9-of-17 3-point attempts in the five-game series against Portland.
•PREGAME NOTES: Each of Oklahoma City’s four regular-season victories against the Spurs were by six or more points, including two double-digit wins.... San Antonio reserve SG Marco Belinelli is averaging just 5.9 points in the postseason after putting up 11.4 in the regular season.... Thunder PG Russell Westbrook is averaging 26.6 points, 8.4 assists and eight rebounds in the postseason.... San Antonio is 14-25 versus the spread (35.8%) versus good shooting teams - making more than 46% of their shots - 2nd half of the season over the last two seasons.... Oklahoma City is 13-2 against the spread (86.6%) versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game this season.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
-- In 1000 simulated games, SAN ANTONIO covered the spread 556 times, while OKLAHOMA CITY covered the spread 444 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, SAN ANTONIO won the game straight up 678 times, while OKLAHOMA CITY won 309 times. In 1000 simulated games, 546 games went under the total, while 454 games went over the total. *No EDGE.
-- In 1000 simulated games, SAN ANTONIO covered the first half line 522 times, while OKLAHOMA CITY covered the first half line 439 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 532 games went under first half total, while 441 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--OKLAHOMA CITY is 43-39 against the spread versus SAN ANTONIO since 1996.
--SAN ANTONIO is 49-35 straight up against OKLAHOMA CITY since 1996.
--41 of 79 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--SAN ANTONIO is 42-41 versus the first half line when playing against OKLAHOMA CITY since 1996.
--42 of 81 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Under is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings.
--Thunder are 10-1-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings.
--Thunder are 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in San Antonio.
--Favorite is 9-3-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings.
--Home team is 9-3-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Thunder are 4-0 ATS L4 after scoring 100 points or more LG.
--Thunder are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Conference Finals games.
--Thunder are 4-0-1 ATS L5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
--Spurs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.
--Spurs are 4-0 ATS L4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
--Under is 5-0 in Spurs last 5 Monday games.
•SITUATION ANALYSIS: Play On - Home favorites of -165 to -500 versus the money line (SAN ANTONIO) - horrible foul drawing team - attempting <=21 free throws/game, good shooting team - shooting >=46% on the season, in a game involving two average defensive teams (43.5-45.5%) after 42+ games.
(74-19 since 1996.) (79.6%, +42.6 units. Rating = 3*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -165.3
The average score in these games was: Team 97.8, Opponent 91.2 (Average point differential = +6.6)
The situation's record this season is: (1-1, -0.1 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (6-4, 0 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (16-8, +3.3 units).
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