jeff benton monday
0-1 yesterday 20 dime loser with the MAGIC...thats coming off of his 50 dime largest play of his career LOSER saturday..overall, 37-43-3 MINUS 65 dimes.
Monday's Winner 15 DIME: L.A. LAKERS
Lakers
I’ve always said basketball, more than any other sport, is a game of matchups. Both the Suns and Lakers have proven that theory true so far in the playoffs. Start with the Suns. They knocked off the Trailblazers in six games in the opening round in large part because Portland didn’t have its best player (Brandon Roy) on the court for the first two games, and in the last four, Roy was shell of his usual self (returning way too early after knee surgery). Without Roy, who is also Portland’s best defender, at 100 percent, Phoenix was able to run its trademark pick-and-roll to near perfection with little resistance.
Then in the second round, the Suns caught a San Antonio squad that got old before our eyes. I’m not at all discrediting Phoenix for sweeping the Spurs – that was extremely impressive and something I certainly didn’t expect. But in retrospect, I should’ve recognized that San Antonio didn’t have the personnel to keep up with Phoenix’s speed, as the Suns easily moved the ball around and to wide open perimeter shooters for easy 3-point buckets, or easy pick-and-roll layups. The fact Phoenix finished the year 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS against the Spurs – the only loss was by 3 points on the road – says it all.
Now to the Lakers. Matchups have been a story of their postseason, too. In the first round, Los Angeles had a lot of trouble putting away the young, athletic upstart Thunder. And although the Lakers finished the series in six games, only one was a blowout. Then L.A. moved on to face Utah, and it was an absolute mismatch from the get-go because the Jazz could not deal with the Lakers’ size down low.
And that brings us to this series and tonight’s Game 1. Phoenix in many ways is very similar to the Jazz. They have an outstanding point guard who is one of the best floor leaders in the game, but they don’t have anyone who can defend Pau Gasol or Andrew Bynum down low – actually, that’s not entirely true. Phoenix does have one guy who CAN defend the post, and that’s Amar’e Stoudemire … he just chooses not to play defense.
When you look at the four matchups between these Pacific Division rivals, here’s what you see: The Lakers went 3-1 SU and ATS, with wins of 19, 20 and 6 points (the latter on the road). And when you look at Phoenix’s last four trips to Los Angeles, you see four losses with final scores of 115-110, 132-106, 121-102 and 108-88. Going back further, the Suns have cashed just four times in the last 13 meetings with the Lakers, and the home team is on a 5-1 ATS roll.
Finally, both these teams have enjoyed a week off leading up to this contest – and there’s no question that time off has been much more beneficial to the Lakers (and injured superstar Kobe Bryant in particular) than the Suns. In the end, I look for Bryant to be the difference-maker. He’s averaging 26.9 ppg in the playoffs, and against the Jazz he shot a whopping 52.3 percent from the field. Bryant has also been at his best this year when well-rested, putting up 26.8 ppg on 48.6 percent shooting after three or more days of rest. And in four games against the Suns, Bryant averaged 27.5 points, seven rebounds and 3.5 assists per contest.
If Kobe comes out hot, L.A. will win this game by 15-plus points, because as noted already, the Suns have no answer for Gasol and Bynum. The only way Phoenix competes is if it continues its torrid three-point shooting (the Suns have made 47.3 percent from beyond the arc in their last five games). Well, I highly doubt that will happen when you consider the Lakers hold the opposition to just 32.7 percent from three-point land – the best in the NBA.
0-1 yesterday 20 dime loser with the MAGIC...thats coming off of his 50 dime largest play of his career LOSER saturday..overall, 37-43-3 MINUS 65 dimes.
Monday's Winner 15 DIME: L.A. LAKERS
Lakers
I’ve always said basketball, more than any other sport, is a game of matchups. Both the Suns and Lakers have proven that theory true so far in the playoffs. Start with the Suns. They knocked off the Trailblazers in six games in the opening round in large part because Portland didn’t have its best player (Brandon Roy) on the court for the first two games, and in the last four, Roy was shell of his usual self (returning way too early after knee surgery). Without Roy, who is also Portland’s best defender, at 100 percent, Phoenix was able to run its trademark pick-and-roll to near perfection with little resistance.
Then in the second round, the Suns caught a San Antonio squad that got old before our eyes. I’m not at all discrediting Phoenix for sweeping the Spurs – that was extremely impressive and something I certainly didn’t expect. But in retrospect, I should’ve recognized that San Antonio didn’t have the personnel to keep up with Phoenix’s speed, as the Suns easily moved the ball around and to wide open perimeter shooters for easy 3-point buckets, or easy pick-and-roll layups. The fact Phoenix finished the year 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS against the Spurs – the only loss was by 3 points on the road – says it all.
Now to the Lakers. Matchups have been a story of their postseason, too. In the first round, Los Angeles had a lot of trouble putting away the young, athletic upstart Thunder. And although the Lakers finished the series in six games, only one was a blowout. Then L.A. moved on to face Utah, and it was an absolute mismatch from the get-go because the Jazz could not deal with the Lakers’ size down low.
And that brings us to this series and tonight’s Game 1. Phoenix in many ways is very similar to the Jazz. They have an outstanding point guard who is one of the best floor leaders in the game, but they don’t have anyone who can defend Pau Gasol or Andrew Bynum down low – actually, that’s not entirely true. Phoenix does have one guy who CAN defend the post, and that’s Amar’e Stoudemire … he just chooses not to play defense.
When you look at the four matchups between these Pacific Division rivals, here’s what you see: The Lakers went 3-1 SU and ATS, with wins of 19, 20 and 6 points (the latter on the road). And when you look at Phoenix’s last four trips to Los Angeles, you see four losses with final scores of 115-110, 132-106, 121-102 and 108-88. Going back further, the Suns have cashed just four times in the last 13 meetings with the Lakers, and the home team is on a 5-1 ATS roll.
Finally, both these teams have enjoyed a week off leading up to this contest – and there’s no question that time off has been much more beneficial to the Lakers (and injured superstar Kobe Bryant in particular) than the Suns. In the end, I look for Bryant to be the difference-maker. He’s averaging 26.9 ppg in the playoffs, and against the Jazz he shot a whopping 52.3 percent from the field. Bryant has also been at his best this year when well-rested, putting up 26.8 ppg on 48.6 percent shooting after three or more days of rest. And in four games against the Suns, Bryant averaged 27.5 points, seven rebounds and 3.5 assists per contest.
If Kobe comes out hot, L.A. will win this game by 15-plus points, because as noted already, the Suns have no answer for Gasol and Bynum. The only way Phoenix competes is if it continues its torrid three-point shooting (the Suns have made 47.3 percent from beyond the arc in their last five games). Well, I highly doubt that will happen when you consider the Lakers hold the opposition to just 32.7 percent from three-point land – the best in the NBA.
hno:
PREDICTION MACHINE
No Normal play today
Has LA by 3.8 pts so a Weak play on Phx
Against the Spread Picks (based on game played 50,000 times):
Conference ATS Pick Opponent Line Margin Win% ATS
West Phoenix Suns Los Angeles Lakers 6.5 (3.8) 54.7% Calc -->
Straight-Up Picks (based on game played 50,000 times):
Conference Favorite Underdog Points For Points Against Win% SU
West Los Angeles Lakers Phoenix Suns 107.2 103.4 53.4%
Over/Under Picks (based on game played 50,000 times):
Conference Better Seed Worse Seed Line Total Points Pick Pick%
West Los Angeles Lakers Phoenix Suns 210.5 210.6 OVER 51.0% Calc -->
Key
65%+ 3X Normal Play
62% - 65% 2X Normal Play
57% - 62% Normal Play
53% - 57% Weak Play (but playable)
< 53% No Pick
No Normal play today
Has LA by 3.8 pts so a Weak play on Phx
Against the Spread Picks (based on game played 50,000 times):
Conference ATS Pick Opponent Line Margin Win% ATS
West Phoenix Suns Los Angeles Lakers 6.5 (3.8) 54.7% Calc -->
Straight-Up Picks (based on game played 50,000 times):
Conference Favorite Underdog Points For Points Against Win% SU
West Los Angeles Lakers Phoenix Suns 107.2 103.4 53.4%
Over/Under Picks (based on game played 50,000 times):
Conference Better Seed Worse Seed Line Total Points Pick Pick%
West Los Angeles Lakers Phoenix Suns 210.5 210.6 OVER 51.0% Calc -->
Key
65%+ 3X Normal Play
62% - 65% 2X Normal Play
57% - 62% Normal Play
53% - 57% Weak Play (but playable)
< 53% No Pick
guild is on lakers
JASON JOHNSON
Astros at Dodgers
Pick: Dodgers -155
The Dodgers are on a hot streak having won seven straight and tonight they'll put rookie John Ely on the mound for his fourth career start. The righty was impressive in his last outing, allowing just two runs in six innings of an 11-3 Dodger win. He has struck out 13 batters in just 12 2/3 innings.
Wandy Rodriguez has struggled as of late in giving up five runs in each of his last two starts. The way the Astros have been hitting, he'll need more support than he's going to get.
LA gets the check mark at home.
Astros at Dodgers
Pick: Dodgers -155
The Dodgers are on a hot streak having won seven straight and tonight they'll put rookie John Ely on the mound for his fourth career start. The righty was impressive in his last outing, allowing just two runs in six innings of an 11-3 Dodger win. He has struck out 13 batters in just 12 2/3 innings.
Wandy Rodriguez has struggled as of late in giving up five runs in each of his last two starts. The way the Astros have been hitting, he'll need more support than he's going to get.
LA gets the check mark at home.
dozo games handicapping
steve "young gun" p
3* Lakers 1st Half -3.5
3* Lakers -6
2* A's -160
Free Pick: 1* Rangers -160
Premium Plays: 4-2
Bonus Plays: 1-3
steve "young gun" p
3* Lakers 1st Half -3.5
3* Lakers -6
2* A's -160
Free Pick: 1* Rangers -160
Premium Plays: 4-2
Bonus Plays: 1-3
