Jeff Scott Sports
TOP PLAYS
4 UNIT PLAY
POWER ANGLE PLAY
Texas/ Seattle Over 9: Google News Play Ok so Texas had a low scoring series at home with the White Sox. That won't continue to happen as this is the best hitting park in the Majors and I expect an explosion tonight. Last year Texas averaged over 6 rpg at home, but through their first 3 here they have not scored more than 5 runs in any game. This is a powerful offense and its just a matter of time before the explode. Tonight they get to take on Hector Noesi, who has just 2 career starts and never made it out of the 3rd inning in both starts, while posting a 9.64 ERA in the process. I can see the Ranger bats waking up here. Yu Darvish makes his major league debut and their is a lot of hype surrounding him, which should lead to some butterflies. He did have an ERA of 1.99 in his 7 seasons in Japan, but in the spring he had a 3.60 ERA, so he was hit a bit in his first stint facing major league rosters. Seattle has done well offensively so far, hitting .259 and scoring 4.8 rpg in their first 4 games and that should continue tonight in this hitters park. Another thing to consider is that the Rangers will be trying their damndest to give Yu some solid run support, which should make it easier for him to relax on the mound. Last year 6 of the 9 games played here between thes teams put up DD in runs and I see more of the same tonight. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Seattle is 11-1-2 OVER since 2005 as a road dog of +140 or more if their are off 2 wins in which they never trailed. Average runs scored 11.5 rpg.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Philadelphia/ Miami Over 7: I know that we have a Phils offense that hasn't been producing yet, but maybe at home in this hitters park with the wind blowing out will get their offense going some. This team still has some good hitters on it in Victorino, Rollins, Pence and Mayberry, so they are more than capable of putting up some runs on a Marlins staff that has a 4.46 ERA in the early going so far. Miami had a tough time hitting in their new spacious park, but they hit a bit better in a hitters park in Cincinnati. The Fish were shutout in the first game of the Cincinnati series, but they came back in the last 2 games to put up 13 runs and 23 for 74 hitting (.310). This is an offense that had promise on paper and they are waking up. Sanchez does have a 3.41 ERA in his last 5 starts vs the Phils, while Cole has a 2.27 ERA in his last 5 starts vs the Fish, but with the wind blowing out at a good clip and Miami's offense waking up and the Phils offense looking to have a better showing at home I will expect this one to go over rather easily.
LA Angels/ Minnesota Over 8: Along with Pujols, the biggest signing the Halos had in the offseason has been CJ Wilson, but this may not be the best team for him to face right off the bat. Granted the Twins are hitting just .163 on the season so far, but numbers like that won't last and they are facing a pitcher that has struggled vs them. Wilson has faced the Twins 22 times, but just 5 times as a starter and he has a 6.67 ERA in those starts, including a 6.87 ERA in 3 starts at Target Field. I expect the Minnesota bats to wake up a bit here. On the Other side we have a Halos squad that is still looking to break out offensively and that should happen tonight vs a pitcher that they have had good success vs. Nick Blackburn has not been a good pitcher for Minnesota in his career with a 4.50 career ERA, including a 4.41 ERA as a starter, and he had a terrible end to last year as he posted a 6.69 ERA in his last 7 starts, before succumbing to injury. Nick has also struggled vs the Halos in his career, as he has a 5.40 ERA in 6 starts vs them. Neither offense has had a great start to the year, but that ends today as these teams combine for 10+ runs in this one. KEY TRENDS--- LA ANGELS are 25-12 OVER in road games after a loss over the last 2 seasons, while MINNESOTA is 13-4 OVER in home games after scoring and allowing 3 runs or less over the last 2 seasons.
Milwaukee -131 over CHICAGO: Aramis Ramirez spent 8.5 yeas in Chicago and now he's going there as a member of the Brewers. Ramirez has a career .308 average and has hit 124 home runs at Wirgley, plus he has 6 hit in 12 AB vs Volstad in his career. Ryan Braun has regularly been a target of boos at Wrigley as a result of giving the Cubs fits over the years - the four-time All-Star is batting .331 with 12 home runs, 23 doubles and 57 RBIs in 73 games in the series.The Brewers offense has struggled out the game, but it should get going here. Chicago is 1-2 on the year despite an ERA of 1.61 from their starters, but they have also struggled at the plate, with a .220 average and will find the going tough tonight vs Marcum, who has a 1.93 ERA in 2 career starts vs them. Volstad has pitched well vs the Brewers as he has a 1.71 ERA in 3 career starts vs them, but this is first start in a Cubs unifor and he is 0-1 with a 4.91 ERA in 4 career starts in this park. With the addition of Ramizez and the way Braun has feasted on Cubs pitching, i feel that Milwaukee has a bit more offense and the better starter on the mound here.
Kansas City +100 over OAKLAND: The A's as a mess this year after they let go of a lot of their talent in the offseason, and it will show in the standings as they will reside in the basement all year long. The A's just dont have the offense this year (.220 so far) or the pitching (4.07 from starters) to compete in a division that has the Rangers and halos in it. The Royals offense should som promise in LA as they hit .250 in the three games, but what was more impressive is their pitching, that saw their starters post a 2.08 ERA vs a very strong LA offense. The Royals may be the most improved team in the league and they will keep on with their winning ways vs an Oakland team that is just not very good this year.
OTHER PLAYS
2 UNIT PLAYS
St Louis +105 over CINCINNATI: Albert who? Ok they may miss him some in the long run, but for right now they are proving that they don't miss him. The Cards are hitting .322 and scoring 6 rpg in the early going and now they take aim at Homer Bailey, who has a career 5.11 ERA at home and an ERA of 5.74 in 24 starts during the months of March, April, May and June. This is not a great pitcher, despite the fact the he has a 3.60 ERA in his last 5 starts vs the Cards. Jake Westbrook has a 2-1 mark with a 4.39 ERA in his career vs the Reds, while in 2 starts here he has 2 no decisions, but with a 2.31 ERA. In the Early going the Cards are looking to make a statement, that they can win without Albert and they are showing they can. I still feel the Reds will win the division in the end, but tonight vs this weak pitcher the Cards offense should continue to impress on their way to grabbing game 1 of this series.
NY Yanks -145 over BALTIMORE: The Yanks were shutout yesterday and that does not bode well for the O's in this one. Brian Matusz was just horrible last year for the )'s as he went 1-9 with a 10.89 ERA, including an 0-6 mark with a 13.83 ERA in his last 7 starts. Brian is also 2-4 with a 4.70 ERA in 7 starts vs the Yanks, including an 0-1 mark with a 14.85 ERA in 2 starts vs them last year. This is a bad pitcher and will be rocked by the Yanks in this one. NY is 0-3 on the year, while the O's are 3-0, so the AL East is a bit upside down, but tonight it will resemble the way it should be, with the yanks coming out on top, like they have done in 45 of the last 61 in this series.
1 UNIT PLAY
TEXAS -1.5 (-115) Over Seattle: I expect a lot of runs in this one. The Rangers don't like looking up at Seattle in the standings, plus I expect their offense to go all out and give Ya Darvish plenty of run support. Seattle is 3-1 on the year, but they were playing the A's and now it's time to step up to the big boys. They will not fare well here as Texas wins by at least 4 runs. Let's call it 8-4.
TOP PLAYS
4 UNIT PLAY
POWER ANGLE PLAY
Texas/ Seattle Over 9: Google News Play Ok so Texas had a low scoring series at home with the White Sox. That won't continue to happen as this is the best hitting park in the Majors and I expect an explosion tonight. Last year Texas averaged over 6 rpg at home, but through their first 3 here they have not scored more than 5 runs in any game. This is a powerful offense and its just a matter of time before the explode. Tonight they get to take on Hector Noesi, who has just 2 career starts and never made it out of the 3rd inning in both starts, while posting a 9.64 ERA in the process. I can see the Ranger bats waking up here. Yu Darvish makes his major league debut and their is a lot of hype surrounding him, which should lead to some butterflies. He did have an ERA of 1.99 in his 7 seasons in Japan, but in the spring he had a 3.60 ERA, so he was hit a bit in his first stint facing major league rosters. Seattle has done well offensively so far, hitting .259 and scoring 4.8 rpg in their first 4 games and that should continue tonight in this hitters park. Another thing to consider is that the Rangers will be trying their damndest to give Yu some solid run support, which should make it easier for him to relax on the mound. Last year 6 of the 9 games played here between thes teams put up DD in runs and I see more of the same tonight. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Seattle is 11-1-2 OVER since 2005 as a road dog of +140 or more if their are off 2 wins in which they never trailed. Average runs scored 11.5 rpg.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Philadelphia/ Miami Over 7: I know that we have a Phils offense that hasn't been producing yet, but maybe at home in this hitters park with the wind blowing out will get their offense going some. This team still has some good hitters on it in Victorino, Rollins, Pence and Mayberry, so they are more than capable of putting up some runs on a Marlins staff that has a 4.46 ERA in the early going so far. Miami had a tough time hitting in their new spacious park, but they hit a bit better in a hitters park in Cincinnati. The Fish were shutout in the first game of the Cincinnati series, but they came back in the last 2 games to put up 13 runs and 23 for 74 hitting (.310). This is an offense that had promise on paper and they are waking up. Sanchez does have a 3.41 ERA in his last 5 starts vs the Phils, while Cole has a 2.27 ERA in his last 5 starts vs the Fish, but with the wind blowing out at a good clip and Miami's offense waking up and the Phils offense looking to have a better showing at home I will expect this one to go over rather easily.
LA Angels/ Minnesota Over 8: Along with Pujols, the biggest signing the Halos had in the offseason has been CJ Wilson, but this may not be the best team for him to face right off the bat. Granted the Twins are hitting just .163 on the season so far, but numbers like that won't last and they are facing a pitcher that has struggled vs them. Wilson has faced the Twins 22 times, but just 5 times as a starter and he has a 6.67 ERA in those starts, including a 6.87 ERA in 3 starts at Target Field. I expect the Minnesota bats to wake up a bit here. On the Other side we have a Halos squad that is still looking to break out offensively and that should happen tonight vs a pitcher that they have had good success vs. Nick Blackburn has not been a good pitcher for Minnesota in his career with a 4.50 career ERA, including a 4.41 ERA as a starter, and he had a terrible end to last year as he posted a 6.69 ERA in his last 7 starts, before succumbing to injury. Nick has also struggled vs the Halos in his career, as he has a 5.40 ERA in 6 starts vs them. Neither offense has had a great start to the year, but that ends today as these teams combine for 10+ runs in this one. KEY TRENDS--- LA ANGELS are 25-12 OVER in road games after a loss over the last 2 seasons, while MINNESOTA is 13-4 OVER in home games after scoring and allowing 3 runs or less over the last 2 seasons.
Milwaukee -131 over CHICAGO: Aramis Ramirez spent 8.5 yeas in Chicago and now he's going there as a member of the Brewers. Ramirez has a career .308 average and has hit 124 home runs at Wirgley, plus he has 6 hit in 12 AB vs Volstad in his career. Ryan Braun has regularly been a target of boos at Wrigley as a result of giving the Cubs fits over the years - the four-time All-Star is batting .331 with 12 home runs, 23 doubles and 57 RBIs in 73 games in the series.The Brewers offense has struggled out the game, but it should get going here. Chicago is 1-2 on the year despite an ERA of 1.61 from their starters, but they have also struggled at the plate, with a .220 average and will find the going tough tonight vs Marcum, who has a 1.93 ERA in 2 career starts vs them. Volstad has pitched well vs the Brewers as he has a 1.71 ERA in 3 career starts vs them, but this is first start in a Cubs unifor and he is 0-1 with a 4.91 ERA in 4 career starts in this park. With the addition of Ramizez and the way Braun has feasted on Cubs pitching, i feel that Milwaukee has a bit more offense and the better starter on the mound here.
Kansas City +100 over OAKLAND: The A's as a mess this year after they let go of a lot of their talent in the offseason, and it will show in the standings as they will reside in the basement all year long. The A's just dont have the offense this year (.220 so far) or the pitching (4.07 from starters) to compete in a division that has the Rangers and halos in it. The Royals offense should som promise in LA as they hit .250 in the three games, but what was more impressive is their pitching, that saw their starters post a 2.08 ERA vs a very strong LA offense. The Royals may be the most improved team in the league and they will keep on with their winning ways vs an Oakland team that is just not very good this year.
OTHER PLAYS
2 UNIT PLAYS
St Louis +105 over CINCINNATI: Albert who? Ok they may miss him some in the long run, but for right now they are proving that they don't miss him. The Cards are hitting .322 and scoring 6 rpg in the early going and now they take aim at Homer Bailey, who has a career 5.11 ERA at home and an ERA of 5.74 in 24 starts during the months of March, April, May and June. This is not a great pitcher, despite the fact the he has a 3.60 ERA in his last 5 starts vs the Cards. Jake Westbrook has a 2-1 mark with a 4.39 ERA in his career vs the Reds, while in 2 starts here he has 2 no decisions, but with a 2.31 ERA. In the Early going the Cards are looking to make a statement, that they can win without Albert and they are showing they can. I still feel the Reds will win the division in the end, but tonight vs this weak pitcher the Cards offense should continue to impress on their way to grabbing game 1 of this series.
NY Yanks -145 over BALTIMORE: The Yanks were shutout yesterday and that does not bode well for the O's in this one. Brian Matusz was just horrible last year for the )'s as he went 1-9 with a 10.89 ERA, including an 0-6 mark with a 13.83 ERA in his last 7 starts. Brian is also 2-4 with a 4.70 ERA in 7 starts vs the Yanks, including an 0-1 mark with a 14.85 ERA in 2 starts vs them last year. This is a bad pitcher and will be rocked by the Yanks in this one. NY is 0-3 on the year, while the O's are 3-0, so the AL East is a bit upside down, but tonight it will resemble the way it should be, with the yanks coming out on top, like they have done in 45 of the last 61 in this series.
1 UNIT PLAY
TEXAS -1.5 (-115) Over Seattle: I expect a lot of runs in this one. The Rangers don't like looking up at Seattle in the standings, plus I expect their offense to go all out and give Ya Darvish plenty of run support. Seattle is 3-1 on the year, but they were playing the A's and now it's time to step up to the big boys. They will not fare well here as Texas wins by at least 4 runs. Let's call it 8-4.
