Service Plays Monday 3/10/14

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Long shots of 100/1 or higher that could win the NCAA tournament
by Chase Ruttig

March Madness is the time to get swept up in all the magic and momentum of Cinderella teams taking the NCAA tournament by storm.

Nothing’s better than saying “I told you so” when those underdogs pull off an improbable upset. Well, unless you tossed some money on those stunners before the tournament took off.

Here are five live long shots to win the NCAA tournament, of 100/1 or more odds. Perhaps there’s a Cinderella run in one of them.

Cincinnati Bearcats 100/1 (26-5, 13-12 ATS)

The AAC champion Bearcats have a long-standing reputation for being a tough, hardnosed basketball team and have carried that over to 2014. Possessing the fourth-best defense in the nation and holding teams to a low 58.7 points per outing, the Bearcats can stay in games on most nights just with their defense. If they can find a way to improve on its scoring, by finding support for 20.9 ppg scorer Sean Kilpatrick, Cincinnati could be a nightmare matchup for most teams in the tournament.

Oklahoma Sooners 100/1 (23-8, 18-10-1 ATS)

The Sooners shocked the Big 12 by not only being the best team in Oklahoma (sorry OSU Cowboys), but also finishing second in the conference. Pushing the pace with a strong transition game, Oklahoma is eighth in the nation in scoring. If they get hot, the Sooners don't lose and, with a matching 23-8 record with Kansas, they’re good value at 100-1.

Arizona State Sun Devils 300/1 (21-10, 14-14-1 ATS)

Arizona State cracks this list based on its outstanding 38.8 percent 3-point shooting and the talented combination of guard Jahii Carson (18.9 PPG) and post presence Jordan Bachynski (11.2 PPG, 8.4 RPG, 4.2 BPG), 55.1 FG%. With sharpshooters Jermaine Marshall and Jonathan Gilling supporting Carson and Bachynski, the Sun Devils have enough firepower to play awhile in March.

Arkansas Razorbacks 300/1 (21-10, 15-13 ATS)

The Razorbacks knocked off Kentucky on the road and gave tournament favorite Florida all it could handle in an overtime loss, possessing one of the most lethal paces in the NCAA. Up-and-down basketball at a clip of 80.6 points per game is promising, but the Razorbacks will have to improve on a poor defense and a shaky record away from home.

Oregon Ducks 200/1 (22-8, 16-10-3 ATS)

Finishing off their season with a big home win over Arizona, the Ducks have won seven straight heading into the Pac-12 tournament and are looking to continue that run heading into an almost guaranteed tournament berth. Oregon is ninth in scoring and fourth in free-throw percentage, and is another team that can be a contender if it can get the stops needed to outrun opponents in transition.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Three steps to spotting NCAAB conference tournament upsets
by Chase Ruttig

The NCAA tournament may get all the hype but for hardcore basketball bettors, the best value lies in the major conference tournaments.

With the big boys kicking off the postseason this week, we pinpoint a few key components when it comes to spotting possible upset teams in the conference tournaments.

Senior value

Schools that are loaded with upperclassmen always get a boost when it comes to March as many players will be ending their basketball careers, leading to great performances.

"Teams with veterans and several seniors often perform well in conference tournaments, especially when they are in must-win situations," Steve Merril says. "These are the type of teams that can sometimes make a run and upset some favorites, especially if the veteran team is facing a younger team that might be better, but young with freshman and sophomores."

Current teams that have large senior cores include Louisville (15-13 ATS), which has talented seniors Russ Smith and Luke Hancock, St. Louis (25-5 SU, 9-18 ATS), which has five seniors on the roster and Iowa State (22-7, 12-15 ATS), which has seniors Melvin Ejim and DeAndre Kane leading the team in scoring, assists, steals and rebounds.

3-point shooting

Like in the NCAA tournament, you can never have enough perimeter shooting. In a one-game format, it’s sometimes impossible to knock off a team that is scoring from downtown at will.

"Teams that shoot the 3-point shot well are also dangerous in conference tournaments because if they get hot during a three or four-day span, they can make a run and upset some more talented teams," says Merrill.

Creighton (23-6, 15-12) is second in the Big East and leads the country in 3-point shooting, at 41.9 percent from downtown, and makes over 10 threes a night. Other teams with strong 3-point averages include:
UCLA (40.1%)
Michigan (40%)
UConn (39.4%)
Michigan State (39.1%)
Arizona State (39%).

Peaking at the right time

Often times, a team that was slow out off the blocks to start conference play – for whatever reason (injuries, suspensions, coaching changes) – finds its form just in time for the conference tournament. These hot team can shock a higher seed that may have back into the postseason after cooling down late in the schedule.

Teams that are on streaks heading into the conference tournaments include Providence (three straight wins leading into a season finale with Creighton), Memphis (wins over SMU and Louisville this week), North Carolina (10 straight wins leading into season finale with Duke), and Oregon (six straight wins heading into season finale with Arizona).

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Louisville routs UConn, claims share of AAC title
by THE SPORTS XCHANGE

LOUISVILLE, Ky. -- In a game that was billed as a matchup between two of the top guards in the nation, Louisville forward Montrezl Harrell stole the show.

With neither Russ Smith of Louisville nor Shabazz Napier of Connecticut having a productive scoring outing, Harrell got 20 points, 11 rebounds and three assists as the No. 11 Cardinals thumped No. 19 UConn 81-48 Saturday at the KFC Yum! Center.

Louisville (26-5, 15-3) claimed a share of the American Athletic Conference championship with No. 15 Cincinnati. A postgame coin flip went to Cincinnati and left Louisville with the No. 2 seed in the conference tournament.

Perhaps feeling the pressure from being called by coach Rick Pitino during Senior Day ceremonies before the game, "Pound for pound and inch for inch the best player in America," Smith had only one point in the first half.

Napier, also a senior, had only three points in the first half. Smith did have five assists and took only one shot in the half. Napier was 0-for-6 shooting and had four turnovers.

Smith finished with three points and Napier had nine, but Smith did have a career-high 13 assists. He took just two shots. Napier made just 2 of 13 shots, including 1 of 10 from 3-point range. He also made six turnovers as opposed to just one assist

Harrell, meanwhile, scored 15 of his points in the second half, when Louisville steadily pulled away from a 30-18 halftime lead. The sophomore forward. who has played extremely well in the second half of the season, also had a block and a steal.

"Montrezl has really improved -- his passing, his dribbling, his one-on-one moves," Pitino said. "He's gone from just being a dunker to a great all-around player. I think he'll be a mid-first-round draft pick. If it was up to me, I'd make him a lottery pick because of his potential."

Senior forward Luke Hancock added 16 points for Louisville. Junior forward Wayne Blackshear had 11 and junior guard Chris Jones scored 10. Senior center Stephan Van Treese scored six points and had 13 rebounds. Smith, who was constantly double-teamed and unable to get off a shot, instead looked for and found the open man.

"Russ is a great player," said UConn coach Kevin Ollie. "He let the game play him. If everybody is loading up, he passes. That's what great players do. That's what All-Americans do. He's an All-American. I told my guys to pass. They don't pass. And that's why we ended up with a defeat like this."

Said Pitino: "Who would have thought a couple of years ago that Russ Smith would take only two shots and have 13 assists? He showed any NBA scouts that were here that he can play point guard."

Pitino was asked whether he had seen the anonymous quote by a West Coast Conference executive in Sports Illustrated that identified Smith as only a scorer who doesn't make his teammates better.

"Well, you know what I think of anonymous quotes," Pitino said. "Obviously, if he watched this game he's probably glad he was anonymous because then he would be the stupid Western Conference executive."

UConn (24-7, 12-6) was led by junior forward DeAndre Daniels with 17 points, but no other Huskies player reached double figures

"Louisville took advantage of everything we did," Ollie said. "We weren't ready to play. ... Coach Pitino coached a hell of a game, and those players played. They played like champions, and we didn't. I told the guys, 'If we play like that, then we have two games left in this season, and that's it.' Then they can go on spring break.

"I didn't see anything like this coming (the 33-point loss). And I'm glad it came because now we know how tough we have to be to be a champion. Louisville is a champion. We weren't tough enough. We weren't together enough. Louisville took advantage. That's what champions do. That's why they're champions."

Louisville, which never trailed, got way to a 13-3 lead and was ahead 30-18 at the break as Hancock had six points and Blackshear and Harrell added five each.

UConn was led by Daniels with eight in the first half, but no other Huskies player had more than three.

The Huskies drew to within 32-25 early in the second half, but Louisville went on a 12-2 run, with Jones getting five points and Harrell adding four.

UConn got no closer than 14 points thereafter.

Louisville wound up shooting 44.8 percent (26 of 58) and forced 22 turnovers, including 12 steals, four by Smith. Louisville had 12 turnovers. UConn made just 15 of 51 shots (29.4 percent). Napier and junior guard Ryan Boatwright combined to make only 4 of 24 shots, including 1 of 14 from 3-point range.

"That was our No. 1 goal -- to deny them the 3-point shot," Pitino said. "And we wanted to tire their guards out so they couldn't make shots. Our press was great.

"What a wonderful Senior Night. It was great that we played that kind of defense, and that's why we established so many great memories. The guys just played great basketball at both ends. They are a special class because for four years they totally did things for all the right reasons. They are throwback people. They are humble guys. ... The rest of the guys were all great."

Of upcoming postseason play and defending Louisville's national title, Pitino said: "I'm excited about it. With the defense playing the way we did tonight, we are a tough team. Tonight we played awesome."

NOTES: Louisville tied with Cincinnati for the AAC title but lost a coin toss and is the No, 2 seed for the conference tourney, which begins Tuesday in Memphis. The Cardinals received a bye and will play the winner of the USF-Rutgers game in the second round on Thursday. ... UConn, the No, 4 seed, also received a bye and will play No. 5 seed Memphis on Thursday. ... Of being tied with Cincinnati for the conference title, Louisville coach Rick Pitino said: "I'm delighted to be tied with Mick Cronin's team." Cronin was an assistant to Pitino at Louisville. ... It was Senior Day as Louisville honored G Russ Smith, F Luke Hancock, C Stephan VanTreese and G Tim Henderson before the game. Those four represent the winningest class in school history with 131 wins (against 30 losses) and counting.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

**Wichita St. wins MVC tourney, cover eight straight
Andrew Caley

The Wichita State Shockers improved their record to 34-0 when they won the Missouri Valley Conference tournament final 83-69 against Indiana State Sunday afternoon and in doing so the Shockers also extended their streak of cashing for their backers.

The Shockers - who were 12.5-point faves against Indiana State - have now covered the spread in eight consecutive games and are now 24-6-1 ATS on the season.

Wichita State will now have to wait until Selection Sunday on March 16 when they will most likely be named a No. 1 seed for the NCAA tournament.

**Florida goes perfect 18-0 in SEC play

The Florida Gators capped off their perfect SEC run with a dominating 84-65 win over Kentucky Saturday night, becoming the first SEC team to go 18-0 in conference play.

The No. 1 ranked Gators have now won 23 straight games and will be looking to extend that streak when the SEC tournament gets underway next weekend
in Atlanta.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

POINTWISE

NBA BASKETBALL

(7:05) CHARLOTTE BOBCATS 102 - Denver Nuggets 93 _____ _____

(7:35) MIAMI HEAT 104 - Washington Wizards 90 _____ _____

(7:35) NEW YORK KNICKS 115 - Philadelphia 76ers 110 _____ _____

(7:35) Toronto Raptors 107 - BROOKLYN NETS 98 _____ _____

(8:05) UTAH JAZZ 106 - Atlanta Hawks 95 _____ _____

(8:05) MILWAUKEE 100 - Orlando Magic 98 (NBA) _____ _____

(10:35) LA CLIPPERS 104 - Phoenix Suns 99 (NBA) _____ _____

BEST BETS
TORONTO (4)
UTAH

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA

Hot teams
-- Charlotte won its last six home games.
-- Raptors won six of their last seven games; Nets won five of six.
-- Wizards won eight of their last nine games.
-- New York won its last three games, by 12-27-10 points.
-- Clippers won/covered eight of their last ten games.

Cold Teams
-- Nuggets lost seven of their last nine games.
-- Miami lost its last three games, but won five in row at home (3-1-1 vs spread in last five home games).
-- 76ers lost their last 16 games (0-6 vs spread in last six).
-- Magic lost five of its last seven games, are 11-20-2 vs spread on road.. Milwaukee lost seven of its last nine games.
-- Hawks lost their last six games (0-5-1 vs spread), 14 of last 15. Utah lost five of its last six games.
-- Suns lost five of their last eight games.

Series records
-- Nuggets won four of last five games with Charlotte.
-- Raptors won three of their last four games with Brooklyn.
-- Heat won four of last five games with Washington.
-- Knicks won eight of last eleven games with Philly.
-- Bucks lost 10 of last 13 games with Orlando.
-- Hawks won their last five games with Utah.
-- Phoenix lost three of last four games at the Clippers.

Totals
-- Last four Denver games went over the total.
-- Five of last seven Brooklyn games stayed under.
-- Five of last six Washington games went over.
-- Four of last five Philly games stayed under.
-- Last eight Milwaukee games went over. Under is 22-11 in Orlando road games this season.
-- Four of last five Atlanta-Utah games went over total.
-- Under is 8-1-1 in last ten Clipper games. Four of last five Phoenix games went over the total.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NHL

Hot teams
-- Blue Jackets won four of their last five games. Dallas won five of last seven.
-- Avalanche won four of their last five games.
-- Kings won their last seven games, allowing ten goals. Calgary won seven of its last eight home games.


Cold teams
-- Penguins lost four of their last six games. Washington lost three of last four.
-- Predators lost seven of their last eight games. Ottawa lost four of last six.
-- Tampa Bay lost seven of its last nine games. Coyotes lost five of their last seven.
-- Winnipeg lost five of its last seven games.
-- Vancouver lost 11 of its last 13 games. Islanders lost six of their last eight.
-- Ducks lost five of their last seven home games. Toronto is 2-3 in last five games; four of the five went to OT.

Totals
-- Five of last seven Pittsburgh games went over total.
-- Last five Nashville games stayed under the total.
-- Nine of last twelve Phoenix games stayed under total.
-- Four of last five Dallas games went over the total.
-- Four of last five Winnipeg games stayed under total.
-- Four of last five Los Angeles games stayed under.
-- Six of last eight Islander games went over the total.
-- Last four Toronto-Anaheim games went over total.

Series records
-- Penguins won their last six games with Washington.
-- Senators won four of last five games with Nashville.
-- Lightning are 4-3 in their last seven games with Phoenix.
-- Blue Jackets won three of last four games with Dallas.
-- Jets are 6-5 in their last eleven games with Colorado.
-- 15 of last 17 LA-Calgary games stayed under total.
-- Islanders lost their last three games with Vancouver.
-- Maple Leafs won their last four games with Anaheim.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Players NBA *10* Monday OVER in Charlotte on 10 March
Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NBA Monday 10* (Top Play) OVER in Charlotte vs. Denver @ 7:00 p.m. ET
The Charlotte Bobcats host the Denver Nuggets Monday. “The Bulldog” breaks down his selection on OVER in Charlotte with his Three-Factor Analysis: 1. Denver has played Over in four straight games, including a 111-107 loss to New Orleans Sunday. The Nuggets defense could be a little slow to the spot Monday night. 2. Charlotte has also leaned toward the Over in recent outing, topping the total in four of its last five games. The Bobcats have cracked the century mark in points three times in that span – well above their season scoring average of 95.4 points. 3. The Nuggets offense has picked up the pace since the return of PG Ty Lawson. With Lawson leading the offense, Denver is averaging 121 points in the four games since his return.
Play on OVER in Charlotte as a 10* Top Selection Monday.
Good luck, Scott.


Players MARCH MADNESS *10* Monday on Kent State on 10 March
Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MARCH MADNESS Monday 10* (Top Play) on Kent State at Miami (Ohio) @ 7:00 p.m. ET
The Miami (Ohio) Redhawks host the Kent State Golden Flashes Monday. “The Bulldog” breaks down his selection on Kent State with his Three-Factor Analysis: 1. Kent State stumbles into the MAC tournament but has been one of the better plays away from home, boasting a 9-4 ATS record on the road this season. 2. The Flashes already have a win over the Redhawks in Miami, winning 75-63 as 2-point underdogs on Feb. 19. Kent State shot nearly 52 percent from the field and got 28 points from Kris Brewer. 3. This MAC rivalry has been a tightly contested series with the underdog covering in five of the last seven games between Kent State and Miami (Ohio). The road team won and covered in both their meetings this season.
Play on Kent State as a 10* Top Selection Monday.
Good luck, Scott.


Players NHL *8* Monday on OVER in Washington on 10 March
Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NHL Monday 8* (Regular Play) on OVER in Washington vs. Pittsburgh @ 7:05 p.m. ET
The Washington Capitals host the Pittsburgh Penguins Monday. “The Bulldog” breaks down his selection on OVER in Washington with his Three-Factor Analysis: 1. There’s no shortage of firepower on the ice Monday, with Washington and Pittsburgh featuring some of the top young scorers in the game. Players like Alex Ovechkin and Sidney Crosby are just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to the scoring prowess of these two squads. 2. Pittsburgh has played Over the total in three of its five games back from the Olympic break, totaling 15 goals in that span while giving up 19 goals against. 2. The Capitals played Over the number in four straight out of the break before two Under finishes. Washington’s offense has been on fire, totaling 20 goals in those six games. The Caps also add another dangerous weapon with Russian prospect Evgeny Kuznetsov making his NHL debut Monday. 3. The Penguins and Capitals have the top two power plays in the NHL, so any mistakes or careless calls have a good chance of manifesting themselves into goals.
Play on OVER in Washington as an 8* Regular Selection Monday.
Good luck, Scott.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Gamblers Data

Bonus Plays Monday

Bobcats -6

Knicks -15.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Bonus Play Mon 19-8 RUN OHIO -13

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAB

Monday, March 10

CAA tournament (Baltimore)
Delaware beat William & Mary twice this year, 76-71 (-6) at home, and 89-72 (+4) in rematch Jan 29; Blue Hens won last five series games, are 18-2 in last 20 games; they've played three starters 35+ minutes the last two nights. Wm & Mary, won eight of last eleven games- they had three guys play 32+ minutes Sunday, after only one played more than 27:00 Sunday. Last time the #1 seed won the CAA tourney: 2010.

WCC tournament (Las Vegas)
Gonzaga hammered St Mary's twice this year, 73-51 (-8) at home, then 75-47 (-1) in Moraga nine days ago, game that was 42-22 at half. Gaels are 22-7 in last 29 series games, but just 3-2 in this tournament the last five years. Zags snuck by Santa Clara Saturday on last-second hoop by young Stockton. St Mary's lost five of its last six games against teams in top 100. Eight of last nine St Mary's games stayed under total.

San Francisco won its last six games since losing 68-63 (+11.5) at BYU Feb 8; Dons lost 83-76 in first meeting this year, are 1-5 vs Cougars in WCC play. BYU won five in row, nine of last ten games, with last four wins by 8+ points. USF is 4-3 in this tourney last four years, with all three losses by 5 or less points. Over last decade, BYU is 3-4 in its 2nd conference tournament game. Last seven USF games stayed under total.

MAC tournament (campus sites)
Ball State lost 12 of last 13 games; they lost 71-51 (+14) at Ohio Jan 15, turning ball over 21 times (-9) in game that was only 27-21 at half. Ohio won five of last six series games, winning last two here by 4-20 points. Bobcats are 5-5 in last ten games after starting season 16-5; they've lost last three home games. Cardinals are 2-7 in first tourney games last nine years, with both wins in overtime. Last nine Ball games went over total.

Road team won both Kent-Miami games this year; Kent (+2) won 75-63 in first meeting, lost 73-61 (-6) in rematch six nights ago; Flashes won last two visits here, by 20-12 points. Kent lost four of last five games, six of last eight on road- they're 10-1 in first tourney game last 11 years, Miami is 2-3 in its last five, 3-4 in its last seven home games; Eight of last eleven Miami games stayed under the total.

Eastern Michigan beat Central Michigan twice this year, 72-59 (+3.5) at home, 64-42 (+10.5) here Feb 26, ending 1-6 series skid. Chippewas are 1-4 in this tourney last four years, losing last two games by total of five points. Eastern won two games in tourney LY after being 3-10 prior to that; Eagles won last six home games, with five wins by 12+ points. 8 of last 11 Central Michigan games went over the total.

Northern Illinois is 7-5 in last dozen games, but 10-0-2 vs spread; they are 2-0 as MAC favorites this year. Huskies (+9) won ugly 45-36 game at Bowling Green Jan 12; Falcons scored only 3 points in last 12:05 of loss, which ended 7-game series win streak. BG won its last three visits here. Over is 9-4 in last 13 Bowling Green games. These two teams are the MAC's two worst teams protecting ball (turnovers 24+% of time).

MAAC tournament (Springfield MA)
Iona played four starters 36+ minutes in tense win 75-72 over Canisius; Gaels (-2.5) beat Manhattan 85-73 in first meeting this year, then lost at Draddy Gym 80-77 (+4) in OT 10 days ago, Iona's only loss in its last 15 games. Jaspers won four in row, 10 of last 11 games- they lost 60-57 to Manhattan in this game LY. Four of last five Jasper games went under total. Last time MAAC's #1 seed won conference tourney was 2010.

Summit tournament (Sioux Falls, SD)
Denver (even) beat North Dakota State 67-63 at home, then lost 78-68 in road rematch (+10.5) nine days ago; Pioneers played seven guys last night- Olson played all 40, three other starters 30+. Bison won its last seven games, covering three of last four. Denver is 1-3 in its conference tourney games last three years, played in two other leagues. Eight of last nine ND State games stayed under the total.

South Dakota State won nine of last ten games overall, seven games in a row on this court, with lot of Jackrabbit fans in house; they lost 82-75 (+1.5) at Fort Wayne, then won rematch 79-51 (-4.5) Feb 6, Mastadons' worst loss of year. Jacks played one guy 30+ minutes in easy win; Fort Wayne played Saturday, had Sunday off. These teams are #2/#3 in pace in Summit League, so this game figures to be up-and-down.

 

[tgunn11]

Hockey Crusher
Los Angeles Kings -145 over Calgary Flames
(System Record: 71-2, won last game)
Overall Record: 71-58-1

 

[tgunn11]

Basketball Crusher
San Francisco +4.5 over BYU
(System Record: 58-7, won last 3 games)
Overall Record: 58-69-4

 

[tgunn11]

Soccer Crusher
Quilmes + All Boys UNDER 2
This match is happening in Argentina
(System Record: 536-18, won last 4 games and 4 pushes)
Overall Record: 536-456-9

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Paul Leiner

100* Suns +10

50* Northern Illinois -3

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Hockey Crusher
Los Angeles Kings -145 over Calgary Flames
(System Record: 71-2, won last game)
Overall Record: 71-58-1

Rest of the Plays
Tampa Bay Lightning -140 over Phoenix
Colorado Avalanche -160 over Winnipeg
Columbus Blue Jackets +116 over Dallas

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Basketball Crusher
San Francisco +4.5 over BYU
(System Record: 58-7, won last 3 games)
Overall Record: 58-69-4

Rest of the Plays
Northern Illinois -3.5 over Bowling Green
Ball State +13.5 over Ohio
Norfolk State -11 over Maryland-Eastern Shore

 

[jdsabre]

Cappersports
511] TOTAL o204
(ORLANDO vrs MILWAUKEE)
[510] UTAH JAZZ +2