STATSYSTEMS SPORTS STAT/SHEETS, 2/10/14
NCAA COLLEGE BASKETBALL
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Monday, 2/10/14 NCAACB Knowledge *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 NCAA College Basketball season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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Monday's Notebook
•Providence (even) beat Georgetown 70-52 at home Jan 8, ending 8-game series skid; Friars lost last five visits here, by 10-7-2-9-9 points. Hoyas are 2-3 as home favorites, 3-3 SU, winning by 7-17-8 points- they won last two games after a 5-game skid. Big East home favorites of more than 4 points are 16-10 versus spread. Providence lost three of its last four games; they're 2-2 as road dogs, losing away games by 30-11-6 points.
•Virginia won its last five games with Maryland, winning last two here by 27-3 points; Cavaliers are 1-1 versus spread in ACC, 4-1 as home favorites, winning home games by 23-12-15-20-10. Maryland won three of last four games; they're 0-3 as road underdogs, losing away games by 20-24-9-12 points- favorites are 5-1 versus spread in their ACC road games. ACC double digit home favorites are 5-8 versus spread.
•Iowa State swept West Virginia by 2-9 points LY; Cyclones won last three games overall but are 1-7 versus spread in last eight- they're 2-3 away from home, winning last road game in triple OT at Oklahoma State. West Virginia won last three games, covered four of last five; they won their last three home games, by 6-10-5 points. Big X home teams are 3-5 versus spread when spread was less than 4 points.
•James Madison won two of last three games with Hofstra, after losing previous 12 series games; Pride won six of last seven games here, but lost five of last six games overall- they're 3-2 as road underdogs, losing away games by 7-18-18-8 points. JMU lost three in row, seven of last nine games; they're 1-3 at home in CAA, with all four games decided by 4 or less points. CAA home favorites are 13-24 against spread.
•Western Kentucky (-5) beat Arkansas State 82-77 in double OT Jan 18, its 8th win in last 11 series games, but Hilltoppers lost last two visits to Jonesboro by 8-14 points. WKU won last six games overall, are 5-0 SU and ATS on Sun Belt road. Sun Belt home favorites of 4 or less points are 5-9 versus spread. ASU won two of three at home in Sun Belt, losing to Troy when Trojans made 14-27 from the arc.
•Florida State (-1) won 63-53 at Miami Jan 15, after being down 5 with 10:23 left; Seminoles won eight of last 11 games with Hurricanes, going 4-1 in last five played here. ACC home favorites of 6 or less points are 6-15 versus spread. FSU lost four of last five games, covered one of its last seven- they're 2-3 as home favorites. Road team is 9-1 versus spread in Miami's ACC games; six of their 10 ACC games were decided by 6 or less.
•Kansas (-11.5) pounded Kansas State 86-60 at home Jan 11- their 22nd win in last 25 series games; Jayhawks won four of last five visits to the Little Apple, but last three wins were by 2-6-4 points. Wildcats are 5-0 at home in Big X, 3-2 versus spread as Big X dog. Big X home underdogs of 5 or less points are 6-4-1 versus spread. Kansas is 3-1 as road favorite, with only conference loss in ten games at Texas.
•Western Carolina is 2-3 in its last five games, 1-5-1 versus spread in its last seven; they're 2-1-1 as home favorites, winning at home by 21-12-3-9 points, with loss to Davidson. Furman lost last four games but covered four of last five games as road underdog- their road losses are by 8-2-7-15-15 points. WCU won six of its last eight games with Furman. Southern Conference double digit home favorites are 3-11 versus spread.
•Marist won its last three games by 2-14-7 points; they're 3-3 as road underdogs, losing road games by 9-9-7-6-13 points- they got first road win at Rider Thursday. Quinnipiac won three of last four, is 3-3 as home favorites, winning home games by 4-12-5-9-14-21, with a loss to Canisius. Bobcats played on Saturday, had two less days to prepare for this. MAAC home favorites of 7+ points are 13-17 versus spread.
•Fairfield is 2-11 in MAAC but covered last three games as a road dog; Stags are 0-6 on road, losing away games by 4-19-26-9-3-8 points (4-2 as road dogs). MAAC home favorites of 7+ points are 13-17 versus spread. Patsos was ejected in Siena's loss at St Peter's Friday; Saints are 3-2 as home favorites, winning home games by 15-9-17-4 points, losing to both Iona/Quinnipiac. Stags won six of last eight series games.
•Southern Utah is 0-19 versus D-I teams, one of worst teams in country, but they've covered last seven games- they're 6-1 as Big Sky road dogs, with last four road losses by 7 or less points. Sacramento State won its last three games, covered last four; they're 1-1 as home favorites- underdogs covered four of Hornets' five Big Sky home games. Big Sky double digit home favorites are 3-11 against the spread.
•NC-Wilmington lost its last 14 games, losing at Hofstra Saturday after they blew 14-point halftime lead; Seahawks lost last four games against Towson, losing by 5-5-13-7 points. UNCW is 0-4 SU at home, but three of four losses were by 5 or less points. Towson won its last four games, is 2-1 on CAA road, with only loss at Delaware. CAA home teams are 8-16 versus spread in games where spread was 5 or less points.
•Situational Trends of The Day
-- VIRGINIA is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival this season.
The average score was VIRGINIA 67.0, OPPONENT 51.8.
-- SOUTHERN UTAH is 9-0 UNDER (+9.0 Units) after scoring 30 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games this season.
The average score was SOUTHERN UTAH 51.1, OPPONENT 66.8.
-- KANSAS ST is 12-2 (+9.8 Units) against the 1rst half line after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was KANSAS ST 32.9, OPPONENT 25.3.
-- W CAROLINA is 11-1 UNDER (+9.9 Units) the 1rst half total versus the first half line in all games this season.
The average score was W CAROLINA 31.0, OPPONENT 33.8.
-- BUZZ PETERSON is 3-17 ATS (-15.7 Units) revenging a loss where team scored less than 60 points as the coach of UNC-WILMINGTON.
The average score was PETERSON 59.5, OPPONENT 69.7.
•Matchup Trends of The Day
-- W KENTUCKY is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was W KENTUCKY 65.2, OPPONENT 72.2.
-- MIAMI is 10-1 UNDER (+8.9 Units) versus good shooting teams - making >=45% of their shots this season.
The average score was MIAMI 55.5, OPPONENT 58.6.
-- MARYLAND is 3-12 (-10.2 Units) against the 1rst half line versus teams who are called for 17 or less fouls/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MARYLAND 30.8, OPPONENT 33.0.
-- HOFSTRA is 14-0 OVER (+14.0 Units) the 1rst half total in road games versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 4+ points/game after 15+ games since 1997.
The average score was HOFSTRA 34.8, OPPONENT 31.8 - (Rating = 6*)
-- BRUCE WEBER is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) in home games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game as the coach of KANSAS ST.
The average score was WEBER 71.7, OPPONENT 59.7.
•Situation Analysis of The Day
-- Play On - Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (ARKANSAS ST) - revenging a same season loss versus opponent, after going over the total by 48 or more points total in their last seven games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team.
(66-26 since 1997.) (71.7%, +37.4 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (79-16)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 5.8
The average score in these games was: Team 77.4, Opponent 67.4 (Average point differential = +10)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 38 (40.4% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-3).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (5-7).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (17-10).
-- Play Against - Home favorites of 10 to 19.5 points (SACRAMENTO ST) - average 3PT shooting team (32-36.5%) against a poor 3PT defense (>=36.5%), good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's) against a poor pressure defense (<=14.5 TO's) after 15+ games.
(69-28 over the last 5 seasons.) (71.1%, +38.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (11-91 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 13.5
The average score in these games was: Team 62.5, Opponent 72.6 (Average point differential = -10.1)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 28 (28% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (15-5).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (42-21).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (142-93).
-- Play Against - Home favorites of 10 to 19.5 points (VIRGINIA) - average 3PT shooting team (32-36.5%) against a poor 3PT defense (>=36.5%), good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's) against a poor pressure defense (<=14.5 TO's) after 15+ games.
(69-28 over the last 5 seasons.) (71.1%, +38.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (11-91 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 13.5
The average score in these games was: Team 62.5, Opponent 72.6 (Average point differential = -10.1)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 28 (28% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (15-5).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (42-21).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (142-93).
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Monday's Match-ups
#713 PROVIDENCE @ #714 GEORGETOWN
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, Fox Sports 1 - Line: Georgetown -4.5, Total: N/A) - Two teams starting to head in opposite directions meet in a critical Big East contest when Providence visits rejuvenated Georgetown on Monday night. Senior guard Markel Starks has led the way as Georgetown rebounded from a five-game losing streak to win its last three contests, beginning with a surprising triumph over No. 8 Michigan State. The Friars, who ended an eight-game drought against Georgetown with a 70-52 victory on Jan. 8, have dropped three of their last four.
Starks has averaged 21.7 points over the previous six games, including 19 to go along with seven assists in the 71-63 win over Butler on Saturday. The Hoyas have allowed 39.6 percent shooting this season – tops in the Big East – and Providence has struggled from the field to rank last at 41.5 percent in the league. Providence point guard Bryce Cotton, who is second in the league in scoring (20.8), recorded only nine points in the 59-53 loss at Xavier on Saturday.
•ABOUT PROVIDENCE (16-8 SU, 11-12-0 ATS, 6-5 Big East): Cotton had scored at least 20 points in 12 of his previous 13 games before going 4-of-11 from the field in 40 minutes Saturday. LaDontae Henton (13.8), Tyler Harris (12) and Kadeem Batts (11.9) also average in double figures scoring for the Friars and Josh Fortune registered a team-high 17 points against Xavier. Providence coach Ed Cooley said mistakes cost his team the last two games, but he told reporters, “We’re still in a good place. I like the way my team competes and fights.”
•ABOUT GEORGETOWN (14-9 SU, 11-11-0 ATS, 5-6 Big East): Starks and fellow guard D’Vauntes Smith-Rivera both average 16.9 points and Jabril Trawick is third among active players at 7.4. Smith-Rivera must get back on track from behind the 3-point arc, where he is 0-of-16 the last four games, while Trawick has raised his game, scoring 10.3 per game over the last three. The Hoyas are allowing 60.7 points during their win streak and will try to wear down the Friars, who use only six players for substantial minutes, while improving their work on the boards (ninth in the league).
•PREGAME NOTES: Georgetown senior F Nate Lubick has hauled in at least nine rebounds in three of the last five games and averages a team-best six.... Providence leads the nation in free-throw percentage (78.5), but managed to draw only seven attempts while making five against Xavier.... The Hoyas are ninth in the league in 3-point shooting percentage (32.3) and second in defending behind the arc (30.6).... The Friars are 5-13 against the spread in road games versus good ball handling teams - committing less than 14 turnovers/game over the last two seasons.... Georgetown is 1-8 versus the spread after playing a game as a home favorite this season.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, PROVIDENCE covered the spread 517 times, while GEORGETOWN covered the spread 483 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, GEORGETOWN won the game straight up 602 times, while PROVIDENCE won 372 times. In 1000 simulated games, PROVIDENCE covered the first half line 517 times, while GEORGETOWN covered the first half line 483 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--PROVIDENCE is 11-9 against the spread versus GEORGETOWN since 1997.
--GEORGETOWN is 14-6 straight up against PROVIDENCE since 1997.
--10 of 12 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--PROVIDENCE is 13-6 versus the first half line when playing against GEORGETOWN since 1997.
--8 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Friars are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Georgetown.
--Under is 10-3 in the last 13 meetings.
--Road team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--PROV is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Monday games.
--PROV is 5-0 ATS L5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
--Under is 9-3 in PROV last 12 road games.
--GTWN is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 Monday games.
--GTWN is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
--Under is 21-6 in GTWN last 27 Mon. games.
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#715 MARYLAND @ #716 VIRGINIA
(TV: 9:00 PM EST, ESPNU - Line: Virginia -11, Total: N/A) - No. 21 Virginia is one of the hottest teams in the nation and looks to extend its winning streak to eight games when it hosts Maryland on Monday. The Cavaliers have not tasted defeat since a 69-65 setback to No. 11 Duke on Jan. 13 and are coming off a 64-45 victory over Georgia Tech. Virginia is off to its best start in ACC play since opening up the 1981-82 season at 12-1 and equaled a school record with its ninth conference double-digit win as it chases Syracuse in the race for the ACC title.
Maryland has won three of its last four games to move above .500 in conference play. The Terrapins bounced back from a 75-63 loss to North Carolina with an 83-71 triumph over Florida State as they prepare for a challenging two-game road swing versus Virginia and Duke. "We've got great opportunities this week in tough places to play," coach Mark Turgeon said. "If we can't get excited for these two games this week, then there's something wrong with us."
•ABOUT MARYLAND (14-10 SU, 10-10-0 ATS, 6-5 ACC): Seth Allen scored a career-high 32 points on 11-of-15 shooting to help the Terrapins avenge an earlier loss to Florida State on Jan. 12. Dez Wells leads the team in scoring (15.2) and has finished in double figures in 21 of his 24 games this season. Maryland has struggled from the free-throw line (66.4 percent), but went 19-for-23 from the charity stripe against the Seminoles.
•ABOUT VIRGINIA (19-5 SU, 13-7-0 ATS, 10-1 ACC): Malcolm Brogdon notched his second straight double-double by scoring 14 points and grabbing 11 rebounds against Georgia Tech. The Cavaliers are ranked first nationally in scoring defense (55.6 ppg) and have held their last 11 opponents to under 70 points. Joe Harris knocked down three triples versus the Yellow Jackets and leads all active ACC players with 233 career 3-point field goals.
•PREGAME NOTES: Virginia has won 14 consecutive conference home games.... The Cavaliers are 45-4 when scoring 70 points or more under Tony Bennett.... Maryland is 106-73 all-time versus Virginia.... The Cavaliers are 7-0 versus the spread when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.... The Terrapins are 4-12 against the spread versus teams who are called for 17 or less fouls/game after 15+ games over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, MARYLAND covered the spread 506 times, while VIRGINIA covered the spread 463 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, VIRGINIA won the game straight up 751 times, while MARYLAND won 232 times. In 1000 simulated games, MARYLAND covered the first half line 581 times, while VIRGINIA covered the first half line 419 times. *EDGE against first half line =MARYLAND.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--VIRGINIA is 17-15 against the spread versus MARYLAND since 1997.
--MARYLAND is 19-13 straight up against VIRGINIA since 1997.
--16 of 26 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--VIRGINIA is 16-15 versus the first half line when playing against MARYLAND since 1997.
--17 of 26 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Road team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
--Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Virginia.
•RECENT TRENDS
--MD is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.
--MD is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 Monday games.
--Under is 5-2 in MD last 7 Monday games.
--UVA is 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 Mon. games.
--UVA is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
--Over is 9-2 in UVA last 11 Mon. games.
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#717 IOWA ST @ #718 W VIRGINIA
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, ESPNU - Line: Iowa State -2, Total: N/A) - Iowa State coach Fred Hoiberg told reporters after his team’s last win that Melvin Ejim might not get as much credit as he deserves. Following his Big 12-record 48-point outburst Saturday against Texas Christian, Ejim figures to be the center of attention on Monday when his 17th-ranked Cyclones travel to West Virginia. Ejim, whose previous high was 23 points last season, broke the previous conference record of 44 set by two former Kansas State standouts – Michael Beasley and Denis Clemente.
As if that wasn’t enough, the conference’s leading scorer and active leader with 30 doubles-doubles collected a career-high 18 rebounds, joining Beasley and ex-Oklahoma star Blake Griffin as the only Big 12 players to post at least 40 points and 15 rebounds in the same game. Iowa State has won three straight, but figures to get tested against the Mountaineers, who snapped a similar streak by ninth-ranked Kansas over the weekend. West Virginia, which defeated No. 23 Oklahoma last week, will complete its daunting four-game stretch against top-25 foes on Wednesday against No. 18 Texas.
•ABOUT IOWA STATE (18-4 SU, 10-10-0 ATS, 6-4 Big 12): Ejim shot 20-of-24 from the field, with the 20 made field goals serving as one of nine Big 12 records he set Satuday. He is the only player in a power conference averaging at least 18 points and eight rebounds while also shooting at least 50 percent from the field and 35 percent behind the arc. Ejim, DeAndre Kane and Georges Niang give the Cyclones three players averaging at least 16 points – one of only two teams in the nation with that distinction (Virginia Military Institute).
•ABOUT WEST VIRGINIA (14-10 SU, 11-10-0 ATS, 6-5 Big 12): The Mountaineers have the firepower in their backcourt to keep pace as Juwan Staten (18.3 points) and Eron Harris (17.5) rank second and tied for third, respectively, in the league in scoring. Staten, whose 35 points on Feb. 1 against Kansas State stood as the most in Big 12 play this season before Saturday, also is among the conference leaders in assists (5.9, second), steals (1.3, fourth) and minutes played (37.5, first). Harris is second in the league with 67 3-pointers and two shy of the school’s sophomore record.
•PREGAME NOTES: Iowa State is the only team in the country to score at least 70 points in every game, although West Virginia was one of three schools to hold the Cyclones under that mark last season.... The Mountaineers rank last in the Big 12 in field-goal percentage defense (44 percent).... Hoiberg’s next victory will tie him with Tim Floyd (81) for the second-most wins by a Cyclones coach in their first four years in the program.... The Cyclones are 0-6 against the spread versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing less than 14 turnovers/game after 15+ games this season.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, W VIRGINIA covered the spread 499 times, while IOWA ST covered the spread 474 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, IOWA ST won the game straight up 525 times, while W VIRGINIA won 445 times. In 1000 simulated games, W VIRGINIA covered the first half line 493 times, while IOWA ST covered the first half line 463 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--W VIRGINIA is 1-1 against the spread versus IOWA ST since 1997.
--IOWA ST is 2-0 straight up against W VIRGINIA since 1997.
--1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--W VIRGINIA is 1-1 versus the first half line when playing against IOWA ST since 1997.
--1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
•RECENT TRENDS
--ISU is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 vs. Big 12.
--ISU is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
--Over is 20-6 in ISU last 26 vs. Big 12.
--WVU is 9-23-1 ATS in their last 33 home games.
--Over is 7-1 in WVU last 8 overall.
--Over is 13-3 in WVU last 16 vs. Big 12.
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#723 MIAMI-FLORIDA @ #724 FLORIDA ST
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, ESPN - Line: Florida State -5.5, Total: N/A) - In-state rivals Miami (Fla.) and Florida State both limp into an Atlantic Coast Conference game on Monday night in Tallahassee. The defending ACC champion Hurricanes have dropped five of their last six games with the only victory a 64-49 nonconference win at home against Norfolk State on Feb. 1 while the Seminoles have dropped four of their last five contests with the only win a 70-50 victory over ACC bottom-feeder Virginia Tech last Wednesday.
This is the second meeting between the two schools this season. Florida State, behind 10 points, six rebounds and four assists from senior guard Ian Miller, won the first one, 63-53, at Miami on Jan. 15. The Seminoles used a 13-0 run during the final four minutes to pull away for the win.
•ABOUT MIAMI (11-12 SU, 8-10-0 ATS, 2-8 ACC): Both of the Hurricanes' ACC wins have surprisingly come on the road -- at North Carolina (63-57) and at Georgia Tech (56-42). Miami, which is 0-6 at home in conference play, has lost its last three ACC games -- at Maryland and home to Pittsburgh and North Carolina State -- by a combined seven points, including a 59-55 overtime setback to the No. 22-ranked Panthers. Senior guard Rion Brown leads the Hurricanes in scoring (14.6) and rebounding (6.1).
•ABOUT FLORIDA STATE (14-9 SU, 12-9-0 ATS, 5-6 ACC): The Seminoles have split two games since Miller, tied for second on the team in scoring (12.7) and the team leader in assists (3.2), suffered an ankle injury in a 53-49 loss at Clemson on Feb. 1. The loss of Miller, also known for his clutch shooting, has forced head coach Leonard Hamilton to give players extended minutes which means the Seminoles could be a bit weary after losing at Maryland, 83-71, on Saturday. Sophomore guard Aaron Thomas, who played 38 minutes in Saturday's loss, leads the team in scoring (13.2) with Miller, who is out indefinitely, and senior forward Okaro White tied for second at 12.7.
•PREGAME NOTES: Thomas is shooting 46.7 percent (25-of-53) from 3-point range.... Brown is averaging 20.3 points over his last four games.... Florida State leads the ACC in blocked shots (5.9).... Florida State is 7-17 against the spread versus good ball handling teams - committing less than 14 turnovers/game after 15+ games over the last two seasons.... Miami is 11-3 versus the spread in road games against conference opponents over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, FLORIDA ST covered the spread 583 times, while MIAMI covered the spread 417 times. *EDGE against the spread =FLORIDA ST. In 1000 simulated games, FLORIDA ST won the game straight up 733 times, while MIAMI won 241 times. In 1000 simulated games, FLORIDA ST covered the first half line 541 times, while MIAMI covered the first half line 414 times. *EDGE against first half line =FLORIDA ST.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--FLORIDA ST is 11-7 against the spread versus MIAMI since 1997.
--FLORIDA ST is 15-7 straight up against MIAMI since 1997.
--10 of 20 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--MIAMI is 12-10 versus the first half line when playing against FLORIDA ST since 1997.
--13 of 20 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Favorite is 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Home team is 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Over is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings in Florida St.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Under is 13-3 in MIA last 16 overall.
--Under is 7-1 in MIA last 8 road games.
--Under is 8-2 in MIA last 10 vs. Atlantic Coast.
--FSU is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 Mon. games.
--FSU is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. Atlantic Coast.
--Under is 8-3 in FSU last 11 home games.
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#725 KANSAS @ #726 KANSAS ST
(TV: 9:00 PM EST, ESPN - Line: Kansas -3.5, Total: N/A) - Ninth-ranked Kansas attempts to match its recent performance against Kansas State when the Jayhawks venture west to face the Wildcats in Monday’s Big 12 contest. The first-place Jayhawks have won nine of their last 10 games and one of the victories was an 86-60 demolition of Kansas State on Jan. 11. The Wildcats are tied for fourth place in the conference race and enter the rematch on a high note after routing red-hot Texas 74-57 on Saturday.
Freshman guard Marcus Foster poured in 34 points in the victory over the Longhorns, the most by a Kansas State freshman since Michael Beasley scored 39 against the Jayhawks late in the 2007-08 campaign. Kansas shot 56.1 percent from the field and committed just seven turnovers in last month’s victory over the Wildcats, but coach Bill Self sees no carryover effect. “I’m sure that they’re doing some things a little differently than they did the first game,” Self said after Saturday’s victory over West Virginia. “I really think the score of the first game is totally irrelevant.”
•ABOUT KANSAS (18-5 SU, 12-10-1 ATS, 9-1 Big 12): The Jayhawks are expecting to see an angry bunch of Wildcats after the beatdown they delivered on Kansas State in Lawrence. “I feel like going in, we’re expecting the worst, expecting a hostile environment, expecting not to get any calls,” guard Wayne Selden Jr. told reporters. “But we’ll battle through it.” Selden scored 17 points and made five 3-pointers in the victory over West Virginia and has raised his average to 10.5, fourth on the team behind guard Andrew Wiggins (16 per game), forward Perry Ellis (13) and center Joel Embiid (10.9).
•ABOUT KANSAS STATE (16-7 SU, 13-7-1 ATS, 6-4 Big 12): Foster made 13-of-16 shots in his epic performance against Texas to raise his team-best scoring average to 14.7. That type of efficiency was pleasing to the coaching staff as well as Foster as the talented guard was shooting just 40.1 percent entering the contest. “Just going back through film, I realize I take some questionable shots,” Foster said after joining Beasley and Mike Evans (1974-75) as the only Kansas State freshmen to score 30 in a game. “I just wanted to limit the questionable shots and take better shots.”
•PREGAME NOTES: Kansas has won the last six meetings and is 22-3 against the Wildcats during 11th-year coach Bill Self’s tenure.... Kansas State has held 12 opponents to 60 or fewer points.... Embiid has blocked 60 shots, two off the Kansas freshman mark held by Eric Chenowith (1997-98).... The Jayhawks are 14-5 against the spread versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game after 15+ games over the last two seasons.... The Wildcats are 9-22 versus the spread versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game over the last three seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, KANSAS covered the spread 501 times, while KANSAS ST covered the spread 499 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, KANSAS won the game straight up 595 times, while KANSAS ST won 382 times. In 1000 simulated games, KANSAS ST covered the first half line 497 times, while KANSAS covered the first half line 464 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--KANSAS is 30-11 against the spread versus KANSAS ST since 1997.
--KANSAS is 38-3 straight up against KANSAS ST since 1997.
--17 of 30 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--KANSAS is 27-13 versus the first half line when playing against KANSAS ST since 1997.
--15 of 28 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Jayhawks are 26-8 ATS in the last 34 meetings.
--Jayhawks are 11-3 ATS in the last 14 meetings in Kansas St.
--Home team is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
--Favorite is 26-8 ATS in the last 34 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--KU is 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 vs. Big 12.
--Under is 10-4 in KU last 14 Mon. games.
--Under is 22-8-2 in KU last 32 road games.
--KSU is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 home games.
--KSU is 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games overall.
--Under is 14-2 in KSU last 16 home games.
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