STATSYSTEMS SPORTS STAT/SHEETS, 12/1/14
NCAA COLLEGE BASKETBALL
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Monday, 12/1/14 NCAACB Knowledge *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014-15 NCAA College Basketball season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of Stat/Systems Sports. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
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Monday's Notebook
#715 SIENA @ #716 FORDHAM - 7:00 PM
•Overall Team Offense: The Fordham Rams are ranked 338 for offensive field goal percentage shooting 34.4% while attempting 56.0 shots per game. The Rams shooting percentages include 62.8% for free throw percentage and 24.0% for three point percentage so far this season. The Siena Saints are ranked 159 for offensive field goal percentage shooting 43.1% while attempting 59.8 shots per game. The Saints shooting percentages include 75.4% for free throw percentage and 36.7% for three point percentage so far this season.
•Home and Away: The Rams are 1-2 at home this season, and 0-0 against 1-4 opponents. At home the Rams are averaging 61.5 scoring, and holding teams to 68.0 points scored on defense. The Saints are 2-1 while on the road this season, 0-0 against conference opponents, and 2-2 against non-conference opponents. On the road, the Saints are averaging 80.3 scoring, and holding teams to 78.7 points scored on defense.
#719 E TENN ST @ #720 MOREHEAD ST - 7:00 PM
•Overall Team Offense: The Morehead St. Eagles are ranked 282 for offensive field goal percentage shooting 38.5% while attempting 58.5 shots per game. The Eagles shooting percentages include 63.9% for free throw percentage and 37.9% for three point percentage so far this season. The East Tennessee St. Buccaneers are ranked 186 for offensive field goal percentage shooting 42.2% while attempting 61.7 shots per game. The Buccaneers shooting percentages include 65.8% for free throw percentage and 39.3% for three point percentage so far this season.
•Home and Away: The Eagles are 2-0 at home this season, and 0-0 against 4-4 opponents. At home the Eagles are averaging 0.0 scoring, and holding teams to 0.0 points scored on defense. The Buccaneers are 1-1 while on the road this season, 0-0 against conference opponents, and 3-1 against non-conference opponents. On the road, the Buccaneers are averaging 72.5 scoring, and holding teams to 77.0 points scored on defense.
#721 ORAL ROBERTS @ #722 WEBER ST - 9:00 PM
•Overall Team Offense: The Weber St. Wildcats are ranked 213 for offensive field goal percentage shooting 41.1% while attempting 46.2 shots per game. The Wildcats shooting percentages include 76.1% for free throw percentage and 34.5% for three point percentage so far this season. The Oral Roberts Golden Eagles are ranked 344 for offensive field goal percentage shooting 33.9% while attempting 49.0 shots per game. The Golden Eagles shooting percentages include 71.6% for free throw percentage and 25.9% for three point percentage so far this season.
•Home and Away: The Wildcats are 1-0 at home this season, and 0-0 against 2-3 opponents. At home the Wildcats are averaging 0.0 scoring, and holding teams to 0.0 points scored on defense. The Golden Eagles are 0-2 while on the road this season, 0-0 against conference opponents, and 2-3 against non-conference opponents. On the road, the Golden Eagles are averaging 53.0 scoring, and holding teams to 66.5 points scored on defense.
Monday’s Week #4 Matchups
Systems Analyst Todd Smith
#709 NEBRASKA @ #710 FLORIDA ST - 7:00 PM
After a three-game losing streak, Florida State has notched back-to-back wins as it prepares to host Nebraska in the Big Ten/ACC Challenge on Monday. The Seminoles got past Charleston Southern last time out but despite the mini-resurgence, coach Leonard Hamilton knows they have a long way to go. "Right now, I think we are a work in progress," he said.
The Cornhuskers are off to a fast start, their only loss a 66-62 overtime decision at Rhode Island. Nebraska has beaten its other four opponents by an average of more than 17 points. After defeating Tennessee-Martin last time out, coach Tim Miles gave this assessment of his team: "I really liked what we were doing for a long time on offense," said Miles. "We just still turn it over a little too much."
•ABOUT NEBRASKA (4-1 SU, 0-3-0 ATS): Forward Walter Pitchford set career highs against Tennessee-Martin, draining six 3-pointers on his way to 19 points. Pitchford entered the game 1-of-14 on 3-pointers, but assistant coach Kenya Hunter helped him snap out of it. "(Hunter) saw that he was dropping the ball a little and got him to tighten up his release and his shooting pocket," Miles told the Journal Star. "We ran some stuff for him early and I thought that was critical (to get) him going."
•ABOUT FLORIDA STATE (3-3 SU, 1-4-0 ATS): Freshman guard Xavier Rathan-Mayes guided the Seminoles to their latest win, scoring 16 points in his third consecutive double-digit effort. He has averaged has averaged 21.3 points in that span as Florida State leans more on raw newcomers in the absence of veteran guards Devon Bookert (foot) and Aaron Thomas (illness). "I think they are inconsistent," Hamilton said of his underclassmen, including Rathan-Mayes, freshman Phil Cofer and sophomore Jarquez Smith. "But I see them mentally engaged and communicating with each other. Until we have a little bit more experience, I imagine we might be a little inconsistent from game to game."
#711 RUTGERS @ #712 CLEMSON - 7:00 PM
Six games into the season and Clemson is still searching for a spark as it prepares to host Rutgers on Monday as part of the ACC-Big Ten Challenge. The Tigers have struggled on offense, particularly in the last three games during which they have averaged 61.6 points. "I really think we are a team looking for somebody to be the go-to guy, but maybe we don't have him," coach Brad Brownell told the media after a victory over High Point. "When Damarcus (Harrison) and Donte (Grantham) shoot well, we're still a pretty good offensive team."
The Scarlet Knight have had their own struggles on offense, including a 50-point showing in a loss at home to Saint Peter's, but did rebound with 68 points in a win over Vanderbilt in the Barclays Center Classic over the weekend. Eddie Jordan's team followed that up with a dismal 26-point effort in the Barclays championship, although that was partly a function of playing No. 7 Virginia, which entered as the nation's second-ranked scoring defense. "We played a good team. They did things that make them a good team and they won," Jordan told reporters.
•ABOUT RUTGERS (3-3 SU, 1-3-0 ATS): Against Virginia, the Scarlet Knights were playing their fourth game in seven days and two starters were dealing with physical issues. Myles Mack, who had a season-low four points, had a toothache while Kadeem Jack was playing in his fourth game after missing the first two games with a thumb injury. "We won't use that," Jordan told reporters when asked if the duo's excessive minutes were to blame for their performance. "We want to make sure our guys in the locker room don't use that as an excuse. There's nothing to be ashamed about."
•ABOUT CLEMSON (4-2 SU, 2-1-0 ATS): Harrison and Grantham are among four players who average in double figures for the Tigers, along with leading-scorer Landry Nnoko and Jaron Blossomgame. One player Brownell can ill afford to be without is guard Rod Hall, who is questionable after injuring his ankle early in the High Point game. "We'll see if we can get him back for Monday," Brownell said of his senior, who averages nine points and three assists. "We don't have a lot of depth there, but I think Jordan (Roper) did some good things and got us in the offense well."
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#713 S CAROLINA @ #714 MARSHALL - 7:30 PM
Frank Martin left a successful Kansas State program for a rebuilding project at South Carolina. After going 28-38 in his first two years, Martin and his troops are off to an uneven start in 2013-14 and look to take a step forward Monday when they visit Marshall in their first true road contest. The Gamecocks dropped the final two games of the Charleston Classic against mid-majors Charlotte and Akron but snapped the brief skid Wednesday with an 89-75 win over UNC Asheville.
Laimonas Chatkevicius led the way against UNC Asheville with career highs of 17 points and 13 rebounds after being inserted as a starter for the first time this season. Marshall, under first-year coach Dan D'Antoni, the brother of former NBA coach Mike D'Antoni, is coming off a 29-percent shooting effort in a 68-59 loss to Cleveland State on Friday. Ryan Tyler had 19 points and nine rebounds in defeat.
•ABOUT SOUTH CAROLINA (3-3 SU, 3-3-0 ATS): Chatkevicius is averaging 9.2 points on 50-percent shooting and leads the team with seven rebounds per game. The Gamecocks are only as good as their talented group of guards, led by 6-5 Sindarius Thornwell, an All-SEC Freshman team member a season ago who leads the team in scoring (13.5) and steals (2.5), but is just 7-of-34 from the arc. Fellow starting guards Tyrone Johnson and Duane Notice combine for 17 points and 6.5 assists while freshman point guard Marcus Stroman is averaging 7.0 points and 4.3 assists in 25 minutes per game off the bench.
•ABOUT MARSHALL (3-3 SU, 2-2-0 ATS): D'Antoni's squad has dropped three straight after opening with wins over Jacksonville State, Savannah State and West Virginia Tech. The Thundering Herd will be without starting forward Shawn Smith (12.0 points) for the second straight game due to a left shoulder injury. Taylor (16.8 points, 10.3 rebounds) is one of nine players in the country averaging at least 16 points and 10 rebounds.
#717 MARIST @ #718 BOSTON COLLEGE - 7:00 PM
Boston College had little luck in the Puerto Rico Tip-Off and struggled to hold onto the ball in back-to-back losses to finish off the tournament. The Eagles will try to snap the skid when they host Marist on Monday. Boston College shot 54.3 percent from the field but turned the ball over 21 times in a loss to West Virginia before struggling from the field and turning it over 17 times in a 65-53 loss to Dayton closing out the trip.
The Eagles have yet to score 70 points in a game and are going up against a Red Foxes squad holding opponents to an average of 61.3 points in their last three games. Marist has its own issues on offense and was held to an average of 49 points in the first two games of the Gulf Cost Showcase before earning a 68-64 win over Fresno State in the seventh-place game Wednesday. The Red Foxes have been without leading scorer Khallid Hart (left foot) for the last three games and he will miss the contest with Boston College as well.
•ABOUT MARIST (1-4 SU, 1-2-0 ATS): First-year coach Mike Maker picked up his first win with the triumph over Fresno State as Chavaughn Lewis exploded for 28 points and seven rebounds. Lewis (19.4 points) is picking up some of the slack left from Hart (24.5), who is expected to miss four weeks. Junior forward Phillip Lawrence is getting a turn in the spotlight as well and recorded a career high for the second straight game with 19 points in the win over the Bulldogs.
•ABOUT BOSTON COLLEGE (2-3 SU, 2-2-0 ATS): Eagles junior guard Olivier Hanlan scored at least 17 points in each of the first five games but was limited to 10 points on 5-of-16 shooting in the loss to Dayton while going 0-of-9 from 3-point range. Hanlan is 6-of-27 from beyond the arc and Boston College is struggling to 19.8 percent from 3-point range as a team. Forward Aaron Brown, who connected at a 38-percent clip from deep last season, is 5-of-30 while Patrick Heckmann is 3-of-14.
#731 TEXAS SOUTHERN @ #732 BAYLOR - 9:00 PM
Baylor, which suffered its first loss of the season to Illinois, 62-54, on Friday night in the championship game of the Las Vegas Invitational, returns home to host Texas Southern on Monday night. The Bears have won seven straight home games dating to last season and are 25-4 against in-state opponents since 2011-12. Baylor will face a Tigers squad coming in off its lone win of the season, a 71-59 victory over Lamar on Friday.
Baylor has been one of the nation's premier defensive squads this season. The Bears are allowing 51.5 points per game, which ranks eighth nationally. Baylor held Memphis to 15 second half points in a 71-47 semifinal win in Las Vegas on Thanksgiving night, the fewest points allowed in any half in 11 seasons under coach Scott Drew.
•ABOUT TEXAS SOUTHERN (1-5 SU, 2-0-0 ATS): The Tigers return two starters from last year's team that lost to Cal Poly in the NCAA Tournament's opening round. Senior point guard Madarious Gibbs is averaging 11.3 points and 5.0 assists. Junior forward Chris Thomas, a transfer from Marshall who was dismissed from that program in June for violating team rules, is averaging a team-best 16.5 points and 6.2 rebounds.
•ABOUT BAYLOR (5-1 SU, 2-1-0 ATS): The Bears played the last two games without star point guard Kenny Chery who was sidelined with a foot injury suffered in a 67-51 win over Stephen F. Austin on Nov. 24. Drew had hoped Chery, who is averaging 10.3 points and 3.0 assists, would play in the Las Vegas Invitational title game against Illinois but he couldn't go. Junior forward Taurean Prince leads the team in scoring (13.2) and had 20 points in the win over Memphis.
Hoop Trends - Monday
•FLORIDA ST is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) in home games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was FLORIDA ST 60.5, OPPONENT 66.7.
•BOSTON COLLEGE is 14-1 OVER (+12.9 Units) versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 4+ points/game since 1997.
The average score was BOSTON COLLEGE 75.3, OPPONENT 63.5.
•CLEMSON is 14-30 (-39.7 Units) against the money line after a combined score of 125 points or less 2 straight games since 1997.
The average score was CLEMSON 66.1, OPPONENT 65.5.
•RUTGERS is 1-11 (-11.1 Units) against the 1rst half line after a game where they attempted 7 or less free throws since 1997.
The average score was RUTGERS 25.3, OPPONENT 29.8.
•MOREHEAD ST is 11-1 UNDER (+9.9 Units) the 1rst half total after having won 2 of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MOREHEAD ST 32.3, OPPONENT 31.8.
•JIMMY PATSOS is 43-16 ATS (+25.4 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record in all games he has coached since 1997.
The average score was PATSOS 70.1, OPPONENT 66.6.
Situational Analysis of The Day
•Play On - Home favorites of 10 or more points (CLEMSON) - in a game involving two excellent defensive teams (<=40%), good rebounding team (+3 to +6 reb/game) against an average rebounding team (+/-3 reb/game).
(23-3 over the last 5 seasons.) (88.5%, +19.7 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (26-0 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 13.9
The average score in these games was: Team 76.9, Opponent 54.5 (Average point differential = +22.4)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 14 (56% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (8-1).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (42-27).
•Play Against - A road team versus the 1rst half line (NEBRASKA) - poor three point shooting team (<=32%) against a poor 3PT defense (>=36.5%), off 2 home no-covers where the team won straight up as a favorite against opponent off 2 consecutive home wins by 10 points or more.
(22-3 since 1997.) (88.0%, +18.7 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 2.4
The average first half score in these games was: Team 35.8, Opponent 28.8 (Average first half point differential = +7)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (4-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (4-1).
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