Service Plays Monday 12/07/09

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RANDLE THE HANDLE

Ravens @ Packers

Things get a bit easier down the stretch for Ravens after having to endure one of the league’s toughest schedules. A win here would do wonders for any playoff aspirations and with Green Bay being vulnerable to physical teams, the mild upset would not surprise.TAKING: Baltimore +3

 

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Leroy's contest:

Steve Fezzik selected:

3-2 WITH MINNY PENDING

Best Bet: Green Bay Packers -3

 

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NFL LONG SHEET

Week 13

Monday, December 7

BALTIMORE (6 - 5) at GREEN BAY (7 - 4) - 12/7/2009, 8:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 24-9 ATS (+14.1 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
BALTIMORE is 20-10 ATS (+9.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 20-10 ATS (+9.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

 

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NFL SHORT SHEET

Week 13

Monday, 12/7/2009

BALTIMORE at GREEN BAY, 8:35 PM ET ESPN
BALTIMORE: 4-0 Over off 2 straight home games
GREEN BAY: 11-3 ATS off cover as DD favorite

 

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NFL WRITE-UP

Week 13 NFL games

Monday, December 7

Ravens (6-5) @ Packers (7-4)-- December night game in Lambeau; Packers are 5-2 since bye, winning last three games by 10-6-22 points. Green Bay defense held seven of last eight opponents to 81 or less rushing yards. Baltimore is 0-5 when it runs ball for less than 125 yards. Ravens lost three of last four road games, with lone win at 1-10 Cleveland. After scoring 30+ points in five of its first seven games, Baltimore scored 14.5 ppg in last four, scoring four TDs on its last 43 drives. Rodgers has been sacked 44 times this year, but Ravens are sackless in last two games. NFC North home favorites are 2-7 vs spread in non-division games. AFC North clubs are 5-3 vs number.

 

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NFL ADDITIONAL

Week 13

Monday, December 7

8:30 PM
BALTIMORE vs. GREEN BAY
Baltimore is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Green Bay
Baltimore is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Green Bay
Green Bay is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
Green Bay is 3-5-1 ATS in its last 9 games at home

 

[NoPartials]

Fezzik at Hilton contest 4-0 with

<TABLE rules=groups><TBODY><TR><TD>FEZZIK .</TD><TD>36 <TD>23 <TD>1 <TD>NYJ</TD><TD>PHI</TD><TD>WAS</TD><TD>ARI</TD><TD>GB</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

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DCI
Monday, December 7, 2009
GREEN BAY 21, Baltimore 20

 

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RedZone Sports free internet play 30-6 run : Avalanche/Blues over 5.5

 

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MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK

5* BEST BET
GREEN BAY over Baltimore by 14

 

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bookies battle the point spread
week 13

josh pool fiesta rancho
ytd 115-76
gb

david snock planet hollywood
ytd 105-86
gb

al beal paris -lv
ytd 107-84
gb

aaron kessler golden nugget-laugh
ytd 105-86
gb

ken spencer riverside-laughlin
ytd 105-86
balty

consensus all hotels
ytd 98-93

out of 55 hotels

37- green bay
18- balty

 

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JOHN MORRISON NBA system 11/07

Portland (A) bet>>>>>>>> V 1.0
GS (A) bet>>>>>>>>>>> V 2.0

note denver is NOT a system bet, it already won as a V2.0 against SA other night

 

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THE SPORTS ADVISORS

MONDAY, DECEMBER 7

NFL

Baltimore (6-5 SU and ATS) at Green Bay (7-4, 6-4-1 ATS)
The Packers, who are trying to remain in the NFC playoff picture, shoot for their fourth straight victory when they welcome the Ravens to Lambeau Field.
Baltimore remains an AFC wild-card hopeful after beating Pittsburgh last week 20-17, but coming up well short as a nine-point home favorite. The Ravens have alternated wins and losses the last six weeks (3-3 ATS), but they have won two of their last three on the road (SU and ATS). Baltimore is 13th in the NFL on offense, averaging 353.4 yards per contest, and 10th in total defense (308.9 ypg) and sixth against the run (97.6 rushing ypg).
Green Bay ran its winning streak to three in a row (2-0-1 ATS) with its Thanksgiving Day 34-12 victory over the Lions, cashing as an 11-point road favorite. The defense has carried the Packers this season, ranking second in the NFL, allowing 281.5 total ypg, including just 89.1 ypg on the ground. Green Bay also ranks sixth in total offense (382 ypg), and QB Aaron Rodgers (3,136 yards, 22 TDs, 5 INTs) leads the sixth-best passing attack (262.8 ypg).
These teams haven’t squared off since 2005 when Baltimore crushed Green Bay 48-3 as a 3½-point home favorite. The Packers had won and covered the previous two regular-season contests dating back to 1998.
The Ravens are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven against teams with a winning record, but they are on positive ATS streaks of 17-8 overall, 10-4 on the road, 7-3 as road ‘dogs, 4-1 in December and 13-6 following a straight-up win. Green Bay is on several ATS slides, including 0-6 in Week 13 games, 1-5-1 after a spread-cover, 2-5-1 as a home chalk and 3-7-2 at home against teams with a winning road mark.
For Baltimore, the “under” has been the play in four of the last five overall, but the “over” is on streaks of 9-4-1 on the road, 8-2 on Monday, 8-2-1 as a ‘dog and 5-2 after a non-cover. The Packers are on a plethora of “over” runs, including 24-11-1 overall, 13-6 at home, 18-7 as a favorite, 12-4 as a home chalk and 22-5 after a spread cover.
Finally, the “over” is 19-9-1 in Monday Night Football games dating back to last season (8-5 this year). However, the last four Monday contests have stayed under the total.


ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER


NBA

San Antonio (9-8, 8-9 ATS) at Utah (11-8, 10-9 ATS)
The Jazz will try to make it three in a row over the Spurs when the two Western Conference squads square off inside EnergySolutions Arena in Salt Lake City.
San Antonio has followed a five-game winning streak (4-1 ATS) with back-to-back losses, including Saturday’s 106-99 home setback to Denver as a four-point favorite. The Spurs have not fared well on the road this season, going just 1-4 SU and ATS. They are averaging just 90.8 points a game on the highway as opposed to 99.9 overall.
Utah had its four-game winning streak snapped on Saturday in Minnesota, losing 108-101 to the Timberwolves as a 7½-point favorite. The Jazz have been dominant at home, winning eight of 11 this season while going 7-4 ATS. Most recently, they’ve won six of their last seven (5-2 ATS) in front of the home fans and average 104.2 points a game and shoot 51 percent from the floor in Salt Lake City.
The Jazz have already defeated San Antonio twice this season, winning 113-99 at home on Nov. 5 as a one-point underdog and then scoring a 90-83 road win on Nov. 19 as a 4½-point ‘dog. The favorite is 19-7 ATS in the last 26 meetings, and Utah has gotten the cash in six of the last eight in Salt Lake City.
The Spurs are on ATS runs of 4-0 on Monday and 6-2 when playing on one day of rest, but they are on pointspread slides of 1-6 on the road, 0-5 against Northwest Division teams and 5-11 against teams with a winning record. The Jazz carry several positive ATS trends, including 4-1 overall, 4-0 at home, 19-7 on Monday, 8-2 after a straight-up loss and 4-1 after getting a day off.
San Antonio has stayed below the posted total in four straight overall, four of five on the road, four of five against the Western Conference and nine of 13 on Monday. Meanwhile, Utah is on “over” streaks of 5-2 overall, 13-6 after a non-cover, four straight against the Western Conference and 5-1 after getting a day off. Also, the “over” has been the play in five of the last six overall in this rivalry.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UTAH

 

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Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports
363 - 255 run 59 %

Bonus Play Mon Utah Jazz -2

 

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NBA WRITE-UP

Monday, December 7

Hot Teams
-- Nuggets won seven of last eight games, covered last three.
-- Knicks won three of their last four games.
-- Oklahoma City is 7-1 vs spread in game following a loss.
-- Utah won four of its last five games.

Cold Teams
-- 76ers lost their last nine games, but covered six of last eight.
-- Blazers lost three of last four games, are 0-5 vs spread in last five.
-- Warriors lost five of last six games, covered three of last four.
-- Spurs lost last two games, scoring 91 ppg.

Totals
-- Three of last four Denver games stayed under the total; five of last seven Philadelphia games went over.
-- Over is 5-0-1 in New York's last six games.
-- Over is 5-0-1 in Golden State's last six games.
-- Last four San Antonio games stayed under the total.

 

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Pick 'n' Roll: Today's best NBA bets

San Antonio Spurs at Utah Jazz

It’s been a whacky season for the Spurs. The club has endured injuries to each of its three star players and newcomer Richard Jefferson still doesn’t look comfortable within the offense.

Even more unsettling for San Antonio backers, the squad has turned the ball over 37 times in its last two games, something unheard of under head coach Gregg Popovich.

“I was really pleased with the aggressiveness and hustle, but again it was the turnovers, for however many points, that was the killer,” Popovich told the San Antonio Express-News after losing to the Nuggets.

Sure, the Spurs are still hustling on defense, but if they don’t figure out their offensive awkwardness soon they might not have home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs.

Winning in Utah is too tall a task for this scattered San Antonio crew.

Pick: Jazz


Golden State Warriors at Oklahoma City Thunder

Warriors coach Don Nelson, who’s still getting over pneumonia, isn’t going on this road trip at the advice of his doctors. Someone else will be joining the team and that’s good news for G-State backers.

Center Andris Biedrins is accompanying his mates on the four-game road trip which could be a good indicator he’s close to returning to the lineup.

“We miss Andris Biedrins, our best rebounder,” guard Monta Ellis told the San Francisco Chronicle. “You forgot he was on the team, didn’t you?”

Biedrins hasn’t planned since Nov. 6 when he strained his abdominal and groin muscles. Without their starting center, the Warriors are forced to give large minutes to NBA journeymen Mikki Moore and Vladimir Radmanovic.

That won’t cut it against the up and coming Thunder. Expect Oklahoma guard Thabo Sefolosha to slow down Ellis and the Thunder to walk away with an easy cover.

Pick: Oklahoma City

 

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NCAAB WRITE-UP

Monday, December 7

Information on Monday's college hoop games........by the way, when I give W-L records for these teams, I eliminate the non-Division I games, because to me they don't mean anything, unless they lost the game.

Seton Hall is 6-0 with a 10-point win at Cornell; four of their last five wins are by 15+ points. Big East home favorites are 14-20 vs the spread. UMass is 4-2, winning four of last five games, but they're 0-3 vs spread as an underdog- they lost by 13 at home to Cornell. Atlantic 14 road underdogs are 6-16 vs spread.

Providence crushed Brown by 26 LY (was up 23 at half); Friars lost at URI 86-82 Saturday, after being up 14 at half- they're 5-3 this year, 2-3 in last five games (0-1 as favorite). Brown is 4-6 after losing 91-55 at Minnesota Saturday (down 51-20 at half). Ivy road underdogs are 8-13 vs spread. Big East home favorites are 14-20 against the spread.

North Texas is 3-2 after 63-61 win at Rice Saturday; they're 2-2 on road, losing by 14 at Oklahoma State, 6 at Boise- they're 0-1-1 as a road dog. Texas A&M is 6-1 with wins over Clemson (69-60), Minnesota (66-65) two of their six wins are by more than 12 points. Big 12 home favorites are 13-6 vs spread. Sun Belt road underdogs are 18-17.

Auburn (+4) won 58-56 at Virginia LY, after being up 11 at half; Tigers are 3-4 after getting upset at home by Troy Friday night. Virginia is 4-3, 0-1 on road, losing by 17 at South Florida. SEC home favorites are 10-16 against spread. ACC road dogs are 7-6 vs spread in non-division games.

Long Beach State is 3-3, playing tough schedule- they've lost at Notre Dame by 20, to West Va by 23, Clemson by 8 in Anaheim, but they've also won at Green Bay and beat UCLA, so they won't be scared here, in Austin against Texas team that is 6-0 (5-1 vs spread) with 78-62 win vs Pittsburgh the closest game they've played this year.

Michigan State is 6-2, losing to North Carolina/Florida (gave up 77-89 in those losses); they're 2-4 vs spread as favorite this year. SEC road faves are 4-5 vs spread. Citadel lost by 11, won by 25 in its first two SoCon games; this is their third game in five nights. SoCon underdogs are 13-19 vs spread, 2-3 at home. Big 11 road favorites are 6-6 vs spread.

Charleston won its first two SoCon games by 9-12 points; they swept NC-Greensboro three times LY, winning by 15-16-13 points; they've lost all three road games, including trips to Co. Carolina, East Tennessee. UNCG is 2-4 after winning by 33 in SoCon opener at Samford; both its wins have been on the road (76-70 at SC-Upstate).

Road team won both Appalachian State-Wofford games LY; ASU is 3-4 after being upset 85-82 by Furman in SoCon opener. Wofford is 3-5 so far, losing SoCon opener by 5 at W. Carolina and then falling by 12 at Michigan State Friday, but they've played tough schedule, losing to Pitt by 3, Bradley by 2, Illinois by 14.

Siena is 5-3 after crushing crosstown rival Albany, but they're 3-3 in last six games, losing to Temple-Ga Tech-St John's. Saints are 3-2 as a fave this year- they beat Iona twice LY, by 15 herem but only by 1 at home. Iona lost MAAC opener by hoop to St Peter's; they're 1-3 in last four games after 3-0 start, losing by 5 to Florida State, 10 in OT to Baylor.

Bradley is 4-2 this year, 1-2 vs spread as favorite, winning home games by 5 over Idaho St. (-13), 2 over Wofford (-7). MVC home favorites are 6-7 vs spread in non-league games. Western Carolina won its first two SoCon games, by 5-7 points, but they lost by 32 at Texas, while they also beat decent Duquesne team by 6. SoCon road dogs are 11-16.

 

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NHL WRITE-UP

Monday, December 7

Hot Teams
-- Sabres won four of their last five games. Devils won five of last six.
-- Thrashers won five of their last six games. Maple Leafs won four of their last six games.
-- Penguins won eight of their last eleven games.
-- Oilers won their last two games, allowing three goals.
-- Blues won four of their last six games.
-- Minnesota won its last five games, scoring 23 goals. Coyotes lost last four games, allowing seven goals.
-- Flames won five of their last six games, allowing seven goals. Kings won three of their last four games.

Cold Teams
-- Lightning lost four of their last five games.
-- Hurricanes lost five of their last six games.
-- Canadiens lost four of their last five games. Flyers lost four in a row, seven of last eight games.
-- Panthers lost seven of their last eight games.
-- Avalanche lost seven of their last ten games.

Totals
-- Over is 3-0-1 in New Jersey's last four games.
-- Five of last seven Toronto games went over the total.
-- Three of last four Washington games went over the total.
-- Six of last eight Penguin games stayed under the total.
-- Three of last four Montreal games went over the total; four of last five Philly games stayed under.
-- Under is 8-3 in Edmonton's last eleven games; over is 4-1-1 in last six Florida games.
-- Four of last five Colorado games stayed under the total. Five of last seven St Louis games went over.
-- Four of last five Minnesota games went over the total. Under is 7-1-1 in last nine Phoenix games.
-- Under is 5-1-1 in Calgary's last seven games; Kings' last three games all went over.

Series Records
-- Road team on last five Buffalo-New Jersey games.
-- Toronto won five of last seven games against the Thrashers.
-- Washington won 10 of last 11 games against Tampa Bay.
-- Penguins won five in row, nine of last 12 against Carolina.
-- Canadiens won three of last four games against Philaelphia.
-- Oilers won two of last three against Florida: 4-1/4-3/0-2.
-- Blus won four of their last five games against Colorado.
-- Minnesota won 10 of last 11 games against the Coyotes.
-- Flames won five in row, 11 of last 12 against the Kings.

 

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Ice picks: Today's best NHL bets

Philadelphia Flyers at Montreal Canadiens

If the goal of a coaching change was to shake up the players, mission accomplished for Paul Holmgren. The Flyers GM fired John Stevens and replaced him with former Hurricanes coach Peter Laviolette.

The news hit Philly captain Mike Richards the hardest. The two-way forward made big strides while under coach Stevens’ guidance.

“My heart stopped,” Richards told the Philadelphia Daily News. “John has given me a lot. He made me realize my potential as a pro and he gave me the opportunity to succeed in this league.”

The players in the locker room knew Stevens was on the hot seat. Richards called Holmgren earlier in the week and assured him that the recent slump (1-7 over the last eight games) could be fixed, but Holmgren wasn’t buying it.

“I think the older guys will understand,” Holmgren said after the switch. “For the younger guys who have been around John for a number of years, it’s probably going to be a little bit tougher for them.”

Don’t expect an inspired effort from Richards Monday against the Habs.

Pick: Montreal


Washington Capitals at Tampa Bay Lightning

Alexander Ovechkin was not happy about the two-game suspension he received after a knee-to-knee hit he had with Canes defenseman Tim Gleason. Ovechkin was the one who came away hurt from the blow, but he was ejected for the second time in three games which led to the suspension.

“It is what it is. Nothing I want to say about it,” Ovechkin told the Washington Examiner. “I’m disappointed.”

His teammates made out well without their star winger. The Caps scored 14 goals and went 2-0 in his absence.

Ovie is eligible to return to the lineup Monday and should be motivated to make a splash.

That’s bad news for the Lightning.

Pick: Washington

 

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CAPPERS ACCESS

Packers