STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MNF REPORT
MONDAY NOVEMBER, 10th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** National Football League Information - Week #10 *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every week during the 2014-15 National Football League season we will analyze all of your daily football action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of Stat/Systems Sports. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
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#273 CAROLINA @ #274 PHILADELPHIA
TV: 8:30 PM EST, ESPN
Line: Eagles -7, Total: 48
The Philadelphia Eagles begin life without quarterback Nick Foles when they host the scuffling Carolina Panthers at Lincoln Financial Field on Monday night. Foles was injured late in the first quarter of last week's 31-21 win at Houston, giving the Eagles three quarters to acclimate Mark Sanchez to the starting role. Sanchez was solid against the Texans, and the team feels good about his chances for success against a Panthers team that has given up 30.7 points over its last seven games. "He's already ready, he's always focused and always prepared to make plays and that's part of his makeup," coach Chip Kelly said. "That's what we really liked about him."
"Mark can play, man," said Philadelphia wideout Jeremy Maclin, the reigning NFC Offensive Player of the Week. Sanchez completed a 52-yard pass to Maclin on his first play in nearly two years and finished 15 of 22 for 202 yards. "There's no question about it. He's also surrounded by a lot more talent than what he had in New York, so the sky's the limit." The Panthers, meanwhile, have only one win since September 14th but should benefit from the return of two key offensive linemen as Cam Newton looks to regain his consistency. “A lot of it is not just about him,” Carolina coach Ron Rivera said. “We can put it all on the quarterback and say it’s all about the quarterback, but this is a team game.”
•ABOUT THE PANTHERS (3-5-1 SU, 5-4-0 ATS): Left tackle Byron Bell and left guard Amini Silatolu are slated to return for Carolina, which ranks 20th in the league in passing yards and 26th in rushing yards. The Panthers have scored a total of 36 points in their last three games with Newton completing a career-worst 10 of 28 passes for 151 yards with one interception against the Saints. He's thrown one pick in each of the past five games and hasn't tossed a TD in his last two. "I've been in a race like this before, we all have," Rivera said. "It ends up being the team that comes back, that gets up and keeps fighting. The next thing you know, you're right in the thick of things." On the bright side, Luke Kuechly continues to lead the league in tackles with 97 and has an NFL-high 417 tackles since entering the league in 2012.
•ABOUT THE EAGLES (6-2 SU, 5-3-0 ATS): After Foles broke his collarbone, Sanchez threw two touchdowns and a pair of interceptions last Sunday in his first regular-season action since December 30th 2012. The focus of the offense will continue to be Maclin, who has 18 catches for 345 yards and four touchdowns in his last two games, and LeSean McCoy, whose four most productive games of the season have come in his last four outings. Philadelphia's biggest concern heading into Monday night's contest is likely how to replace linebacker DeMeco Ryans, who tore his Achilles tendon last weekend and will be replaced by a trio of relative unknowns in the middle of the Eagles' 3-4 scheme.
•PREGAME NOTES: Newton is 2-0 all-time on Monday Night Football with five touchdown passes and no interceptions, in addition to a pair of rushing scores.... The Eagles have won four of their last five meetings with the Panthers and five of seven in the all-time series.... Philadelphia's offensive line will welcome back Pro Bowl G Evan Mathis (knee), but veteran G Todd Herremans (biceps) was placed on injured reserve earlier this week.... The Eagles, fourth in both points (29.3) and total yards (409.3) per game, hope to maintain that production against a Carolina defense that has hardly resembled the unit that keyed a 12-4 finish last season. The Panthers have allowed 30.7 points per game since Week #3 - 31st in the league - while going 1-5-1. They've been particularly vulnerable against the run, allowing 134.8 per game in their last four.
•RESEARCH NOTES: Philadelphia has recorded a 12-2 ATS mark on Monday Night Football following a straight-up win when facing a team off a straight-up loss. On the flip side Carolina owns an 1-5-1 all-time ATS record in games off a loss when meeting an NFC East opponents following a win. The concern for Eagles’ fans however is the loss of Foles, but his 26th ranked 81.5 Quarterback Rating this season is not anything to lose sleep over. Not when Sanchez brings 68 National Football League career starts into the game, including a 1-0 SU and ATS mark in his only start against the Panthers. Finally, according to our database here at StatSystemsSports.net: NFL Monday Night home teams off back-to-back road games are 20-4 SU and 17-6-1 ATS since 1980 when facing an opponent off back-to-back home games, including a near-perfect 15-1 SU and ATS log versus a .666 or less opponent.
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•KEY STATS
--CAROLINA is 9-1 UNDER (+7.9 Units) in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CAROLINA 20.6, OPPONENT 17.3.
--CAROLINA is 18-3 against the 1rst half line (+14.7 Units) in road games against NFC East division opponents since 1992.
The average score was CAROLINA 12.0, OPPONENT 7.5.
--CAROLINA is 13-3 OVER (+9.7 Units) the 1rst half total against teams with a turnover margin of -1 per game or worse in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was CAROLINA 12.6, OPPONENT 13.8.
--PHILADELPHIA is 29-13 ATS (+14.6 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing >=5.65 yards/play in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 26.6, OPPONENT 20.5.
--PHILADELPHIA is 22-9 OVER (+12.1 Units) versus excellent kickoff return teams, more than 24 yards per return in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 24.1, OPPONENT 24.5.
--PHILADELPHIA is 28-13 UNDER (+13.7 Units) the 1rst half total when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 11.8, OPPONENT 6.8.
--PHILADELPHIA is 14-4 UNDER (+9.6 Units) the 1rst half total as a favorite versus the 1rst half line over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 11.8, OPPONENT 9.4.
•COACHING TRENDS
--RON RIVERA is 8-1 OVER (+6.9 Units) after a loss by 14 or more points as the coach of CAROLINA.
The average score was CAROLINA 25.9, OPPONENT 25.0.
--RON RIVERA is 8-1 OVER (+6.9 Units) in road games versus excellent kickoff return teams, more than 24 yards per return as the coach of CAROLINA.
The average score was CAROLINA 26.7, OPPONENT 27.4.
--RON RIVERA is 20-8 OVER (+11.2 Units) the 1rst half total versus poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game as the coach of CAROLINA.
The average score was CAROLINA 13.8, OPPONENT 11.0.
--RON RIVERA is 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) the 1rst half total in road games versus good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game in the second half of the season as the coach of CAROLINA.
The average score was CAROLINA 16.4, OPPONENT 16.1.
--CHIP KELLY is 6-0 UNDER (+6.0 Units) the 1rst half total in home games versus poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game as the coach of PHILADELPHIA.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 9.0, OPPONENT 5.0.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--PHILADELPHIA is 5-3 against the spread versus CAROLINA since 1992.
--PHILADELPHIA is 5-3 straight up against CAROLINA since 1992.
--5 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1992.
--PHILADELPHIA is 5-3 versus the first half line when playing against CAROLINA since 1992.
--4 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.
--Over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--CAR is 11-5 ATS in their last 16 versus the NFC.
--CAR is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in November.
--Under is 11-2 in CAR last 13 versus the NFC.
--PHI is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 Monday games.
--PHI is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in November.
--Over is 7-1-1 in PHI last 9 Monday games.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the favorite covered the spread 31 times, while the underdog covered the spread 25 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 43 times, while the underdog won straight up 13 times. 32 games went under the total, while 24 games went over the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the favorite covered first half line 66 times, while the underdog covered first half line 44 times. *No EDGE. 47 games went under first half total, while 36 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.
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