STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MNF REPORT
MONDAY OCTOBER, 27th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** National Football League Information - Week #8 *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every week during the 2014-15 National Football League season we will analyze all of your daily football action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of Stat/Systems Sports. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
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#277 WASHINGTON @ #278 DALLAS
TV: 8:30 PM EST, ESPN
Line: Cowboys -9.5, Total: 49.5
A season-opening loss to San Francisco seems like a lifetime ago for the Dallas Cowboys, who will go for their seventh consecutive victory when they host the Washington Redskins on Monday Night Football. The Cowboys have surged to the top of the NFC East behind an offense featuring DeMarco Murray, the first running back in league history to open a season with seven straight 100-yard games. Dallas has won seven of the last 10 versus Washington, including a season sweep a year ago.
The Redskins snapped a four-game skid last week when coach Jay Gruden benched quarterback Kirk Cousins in favor of third-stringer Colt McCoy, who is expected to make his first start since December 2011. However, Gruden employed some gamesmanship by refusing to rule out Robert Griffin III, who has been sidelined since suffering a dislocated ankle in Week #2. "Colt's the starter. We're preparing for Colt to be the starter," Gruden said. "But we're trying to get Robert some reps, get him ready."
•ABOUT THE REDSKINS (2-5 SU, 2-5-0 ATS): With Washington in dire need of a victory last week, Gruden made a surprise move by inserting McCoy, who wound up completing 11-of-12 for 128 yards and a touchdown in his first action since attempting one pass last season as a member of the 49ers. While McCoy is keeping the seat warm until Griffin returns, a major concern is the running game. Alfred Morris, who rushed for nearly 2,900 yards in his first two seasons, has managed only 124 over the past three games while averaging a meager 2.8 yards per carry. Washington's defense, which ranks sixth with 321.9 yards allowed but has surrendered an average of 26.1 points, absorbed a big loss when linebacker Brian Orapko (torn pectoral) was lost for the season.
•ABOUT THE COWBOYS (6-1 SU, 5-2-0 ATS): Murray rumbled for 128 yards and a touchdown in last Sunday's 31-21 victory over the New York Giants to push his league-leading total to 913 while breaking Hall of Famer Jim Brown's record of six straight 100-yard outings to open a season. “I think we did this as a group, so it’s hard for me to accept this individually,” Murray said. “The offensive line is a huge part of this.... I definitely give a lot of credit to those guys." Quarterback Tony Romo has multiple touchdowns in five straight games after throwing for 279 yards and three scores during Week #7, with Dez Bryant hauling in nine balls for 151 yards. Dallas ranked last in total defense last season with an average of 415.3 yards but has cut that number to 343.9 through seven games.
•PREGAME NOTES: The Redskins have dropped 15 of their last 19 on Monday night and have lost seven straight in prime time.... Bryant has four touchdown catches in the last five meetings for the Cowboys, who last won seven in a row in 2007.... Morris has rushed for six touchdowns and an average of 120.5 yards in his past four versus Dallas.... Bryant enters Week #8 in eighth place in the league with 590 yards and the Redskins' DeSean Jackson is ninth with 528. Jackson, however, had one receiving touchdown in 10 games against the Cowboys with NFC East rival Philadelphia.... The Redskins have dropped eight straight to NFC East foes for their longest skid in the division since a 15-game slide from 1993-94.
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•KEY STATS
--WASHINGTON is 33-15 UNDER (+16.5 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game since 1992.
The average score was WASHINGTON 15.5, OPPONENT 24.4.
--WASHINGTON is 29-12 UNDER (+15.8 Units) in road games versus good teams - outscoring opponents by 6+ PPG on the season since 1992.
The average score was WASHINGTON 14.6, OPPONENT 23.4.
--WASHINGTON is 9-0 UNDER (+9.0 Units) in road games when playing on Monday night since 1992.
The average score was WASHINGTON 12.2, OPPONENT 18.8.
--WASHINGTON is 17-4 UNDER (+12.6 Units) the 1rst half total in road games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging >=375 yards/game since 1992.
The average score was WASHINGTON 6.5, OPPONENT 11.6.
--WASHINGTON is 13-3 OVER (+9.7 Units) the 1rst half total after playing a game at home over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was WASHINGTON 14.2, OPPONENT 13.0.
--DALLAS is 31-14 OVER (+15.6 Units) in home games versus good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game since 1992.
The average score was DALLAS 26.5, OPPONENT 24.7.
--DALLAS is 18-6 OVER (+11.4 Units) in home games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging >=375 yards/game since 1992.
The average score was DALLAS 28.7, OPPONENT 29.7.
--DALLAS is 11-25 against the 1rst half line (-16.5 Units) in home games versus mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game since 1992.
The average score was DALLAS 10.5, OPPONENT 10.1.
--DALLAS is 17-4 OVER (+12.6 Units) the 1rst half total in home games versus excellent passing teams averaging 260 or more passing yards/game since 1992.
The average score was DALLAS 16.0, OPPONENT 13.6.
•COACHING TRENDS
--JASON GARRETT is 14-4 OVER (+9.6 Units) versus excellent passing teams with a completion percentage of 64% or better as the coach of DALLAS.
The average score was DALLAS 28.8, OPPONENT 28.9.
--JASON GARRETT is 12-3 OVER (+8.7 Units) in home games versus good offensive teams - averaging >=350 yards/game as the coach of DALLAS.
The average score was DALLAS 31.2, OPPONENT 29.1.
--JASON GARRETT is 12-3 OVER (+8.7 Units) in home games versus good offensive teams - averaging >=5.65 yards/play as the coach of DALLAS.
The average score was DALLAS 30.9, OPPONENT 28.9.
--JASON GARRETT is 8-17 against the 1rst half line (-10.7 Units) in home games against conference opponents as the coach of DALLAS.
The average score was DALLAS 11.7, OPPONENT 11.8.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--DALLAS is 23-21 against the spread versus WASHINGTON since 1992.
--DALLAS is 29-15 straight up against WASHINGTON since 1992.
--24 of 42 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1992.
--DALLAS is 24-19 versus the first half line when playing against WASHINGTON since 1992.
--24 of 43 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.
--Under is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings.
--Redskins are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
--Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
--Underdog is 24-8 ATS in their last 32 meetings.
--Redskins are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Dallas.
•RECENT TRENDS
--WAS is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 Monday games.
--WAS is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in Week #8.
--Over is 11-3-1 in WAS last 15 games in Week #8.
--DAL is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games in October.
--DAL is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 versus the NFC East.
--Over is 10-4-1 in DAL last 15 Monday games.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the underdog covered the spread 10 times, while the favorite covered the spread 8 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 15 times, while the underdog won straight up 4 times. 18 games went over the total, while 11 games went under the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the favorite covered first half line 21 times, while the underdog covered first half line 20 times. *No EDGE. 25 games went over first half total, while 21 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.
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