Vegas Wise Guy Sports
09/14 NFL NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -10.5
Bills are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 meetings in New England.
Bills are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Bills are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
Bills are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. AFC East.
Favorite is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Patriots are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Monday games.
Patriots are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 vs. AFC.
Patriots are 36-16-1 ATS in their last 53 vs. AFC East.
09/14 NFL NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -10.5
Bills are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 meetings in New England.
Bills are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Bills are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
Bills are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. AFC East.
Favorite is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Patriots are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Monday games.
Patriots are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 vs. AFC.
Patriots are 36-16-1 ATS in their last 53 vs. AFC East.
KILLER SPORTS W/ Mti
Buffalo at New England—New England has defeated Buffalo in 11
straight games, covering in the last five. Teams that have won 11
straight vs an opponent are 8-2 SU and 6-4 ATS (last active date was
in 1999.) New England defeated Buffalo, 20-10, in week 10 and
13-0 in week 17. The Bills have only averaged 227 yards per game in
their last six meetings with the Patriots. The Bills are 0-8 ATS (-11.9
ppg) since November 25, 2001 as a dog vs a divisional opponent with
non-divisional opponents in each of the next two weeks. The Bills
have gone 4-0 ATS the past four opening days. The Bills are 0-7 OU
(-10.5 ppg) since November 11, 2001 as a road dog vs a divisional
opponent before playing at home against a non-divisional opponent.
The Patriots are 1-9 OU (-5.6 ppg) since December 26, 1999 at home
versus the Bills. Teams that have won seven games the previous season
are 6-0 ATS (+11.7 ppg) in week one when getting more than a TD.
Sad Diego at Oakland—San Diego has defeated Oakland in 11
straight games, covering in the last four and 11 of the last 12. Teams
that have won 11 straight vs an opponent are 8-2 SU and 6-4 ATS
(last active date was in 1999.) The Raiders are 1-5 ATS and 0-6 SU
in their last six opening days. San Diego defeated Oakland, 28-18 in
week four and 34-7 in week 14. The two teams opened the season on
Monday night in 2006, a 27-0 Charger victory. The Raiders are 0-9
ATS (-13.1 ppg) since September 20, 1998 as a home dog when facing
a divisional opponent for the first time of the season. The Chargers are
7-0 OU (17.9 ppg) since October 22, 2006 vs a divisional opponent
before playing at home.
Buffalo at New England—New England has defeated Buffalo in 11
straight games, covering in the last five. Teams that have won 11
straight vs an opponent are 8-2 SU and 6-4 ATS (last active date was
in 1999.) New England defeated Buffalo, 20-10, in week 10 and
13-0 in week 17. The Bills have only averaged 227 yards per game in
their last six meetings with the Patriots. The Bills are 0-8 ATS (-11.9
ppg) since November 25, 2001 as a dog vs a divisional opponent with
non-divisional opponents in each of the next two weeks. The Bills
have gone 4-0 ATS the past four opening days. The Bills are 0-7 OU
(-10.5 ppg) since November 11, 2001 as a road dog vs a divisional
opponent before playing at home against a non-divisional opponent.
The Patriots are 1-9 OU (-5.6 ppg) since December 26, 1999 at home
versus the Bills. Teams that have won seven games the previous season
are 6-0 ATS (+11.7 ppg) in week one when getting more than a TD.
Sad Diego at Oakland—San Diego has defeated Oakland in 11
straight games, covering in the last four and 11 of the last 12. Teams
that have won 11 straight vs an opponent are 8-2 SU and 6-4 ATS
(last active date was in 1999.) The Raiders are 1-5 ATS and 0-6 SU
in their last six opening days. San Diego defeated Oakland, 28-18 in
week four and 34-7 in week 14. The two teams opened the season on
Monday night in 2006, a 27-0 Charger victory. The Raiders are 0-9
ATS (-13.1 ppg) since September 20, 1998 as a home dog when facing
a divisional opponent for the first time of the season. The Chargers are
7-0 OU (17.9 ppg) since October 22, 2006 vs a divisional opponent
before playing at home.
Scott Ferrall
MLB FREE PICKS FOR MONDAY
PICKS ARE IN ALL CAPS AND RANKED IN ORDER OF CONFIDENCE ( )
Pittsburgh (McCutchen)
DODGERS (GARLAND) -250 (1)
Oakland (Tomko)
TEXAS (MCCARTHY) -210 (2)
Run Totals
Florida / St. Louis OVER 9
Angels / Yankees UNDER 9 ½
Houston / Cincinnati UNDER 7 ½
Milwaukee / Cubs OVER (NO EARLY NUMBER)
MLB FREE PICKS FOR MONDAY
PICKS ARE IN ALL CAPS AND RANKED IN ORDER OF CONFIDENCE ( )
Pittsburgh (McCutchen)
DODGERS (GARLAND) -250 (1)
Oakland (Tomko)
TEXAS (MCCARTHY) -210 (2)
Run Totals
Florida / St. Louis OVER 9
Angels / Yankees UNDER 9 ½
Houston / Cincinnati UNDER 7 ½
Milwaukee / Cubs OVER (NO EARLY NUMBER)
Randall the Handle MLB
Pittsburgh +2.22 over LOS ANGELES PINNACLE[/FONT][/B]
The tag has heavy influence on this choice, as Jon Garland should never be this big a favorite over anyone. The Pirates may not win here but these huge pups have been hitting all year at a decent rate and this one is as possible as any of those. Also consider that the Dodgers are coming off a weekend in San Fran, it’s biggest rival and a letdown is a distinct possibility against the enthusiastic Pirates. Daniel McCutchen has looked decent enough in his only two starts, going six innings in his first start in Cinci and following that up with a seven-inning stint against the Cubbies. His BAA in those two games was .269 and he also whiffed 10 batters in those 13 innings combined, not to mention inducing 23 groundouts. So yeah, I’ll take my chances against Garland because he’s about as hittable as any pitcher in baseball. Play: Pittsburgh +2.22 (Risking 2 units).
Toronto +2.30 over DETROIT PINNACLE
David Purcey returns to the Jays rotation after a four-month stint in the minors and hopefully he’s learned something. One thing is certain; Purcey has the talent and is very capable of doing well at this level. He’s struck out 84 batters in his 90 major-league innings and he’s thrown a few gems as well. He has done an outstanding job against the Tigers, going 1-0 in three starts against them with an ERA of 1.56. Furthermore, the Tigers are laboring with one win in its last six games and that includes being swept by the Royals and losing the first two games of this series being pulling out a win yesterday. Justin Verlander is tough for sure but the Jays know him well and this intruder has a good history of beating good pitchers and losing to poor one’s. At this price, the Jays are definitely worthy of a bet. Play: Toronto +2.30 (Risking 2 units).
Pittsburgh +2.22 over LOS ANGELES PINNACLE[/FONT][/B]
The tag has heavy influence on this choice, as Jon Garland should never be this big a favorite over anyone. The Pirates may not win here but these huge pups have been hitting all year at a decent rate and this one is as possible as any of those. Also consider that the Dodgers are coming off a weekend in San Fran, it’s biggest rival and a letdown is a distinct possibility against the enthusiastic Pirates. Daniel McCutchen has looked decent enough in his only two starts, going six innings in his first start in Cinci and following that up with a seven-inning stint against the Cubbies. His BAA in those two games was .269 and he also whiffed 10 batters in those 13 innings combined, not to mention inducing 23 groundouts. So yeah, I’ll take my chances against Garland because he’s about as hittable as any pitcher in baseball. Play: Pittsburgh +2.22 (Risking 2 units).
Toronto +2.30 over DETROIT PINNACLE
David Purcey returns to the Jays rotation after a four-month stint in the minors and hopefully he’s learned something. One thing is certain; Purcey has the talent and is very capable of doing well at this level. He’s struck out 84 batters in his 90 major-league innings and he’s thrown a few gems as well. He has done an outstanding job against the Tigers, going 1-0 in three starts against them with an ERA of 1.56. Furthermore, the Tigers are laboring with one win in its last six games and that includes being swept by the Royals and losing the first two games of this series being pulling out a win yesterday. Justin Verlander is tough for sure but the Jays know him well and this intruder has a good history of beating good pitchers and losing to poor one’s. At this price, the Jays are definitely worthy of a bet. Play: Toronto +2.30 (Risking 2 units).
Randall the Handle NFL
NFL NEW ENGLAND -10½ over Buffalo PINNACLE
With Tom Brady back in the fold and after missing the playoffs last season despite an 11-5 record, one has to figure the Patriots to come out blazing and they couldn’t have handpicked a more ripe opponent. The Pats may not be as strong as everyone thinks and they’ll get exposed at some point, especially on defense but it’s not going to happen here. The Bills might be the worst the NFL has to offer. They have an inexperienced and very vulnerable offensive line and that means the Patriots will be coming at Trent Edwards all night long. Edwards won’t have the luxury of handing the ball off to Marshawn Lynch, who is serving a three-game suspension. This is an offense that couldn’t move five yards in the preseason and subsequently fired its offensive coordinator about a week ago. This is also a team that lost eight of its last 10 a year ago, they have not won here since 2000 and they’ve lost by an average of 20 points per game to the Pats over that stretch. One has to wonder how on earth are the Bills going to score any points, let alone enough to cover. This one could get ugly. Play: New England -10½ (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).
NFL NEW ENGLAND -10½ over Buffalo PINNACLE
With Tom Brady back in the fold and after missing the playoffs last season despite an 11-5 record, one has to figure the Patriots to come out blazing and they couldn’t have handpicked a more ripe opponent. The Pats may not be as strong as everyone thinks and they’ll get exposed at some point, especially on defense but it’s not going to happen here. The Bills might be the worst the NFL has to offer. They have an inexperienced and very vulnerable offensive line and that means the Patriots will be coming at Trent Edwards all night long. Edwards won’t have the luxury of handing the ball off to Marshawn Lynch, who is serving a three-game suspension. This is an offense that couldn’t move five yards in the preseason and subsequently fired its offensive coordinator about a week ago. This is also a team that lost eight of its last 10 a year ago, they have not won here since 2000 and they’ve lost by an average of 20 points per game to the Pats over that stretch. One has to wonder how on earth are the Bills going to score any points, let alone enough to cover. This one could get ugly. Play: New England -10½ (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).
Kelso's Highrollers Baseball
15 UnitsTigers {J.Verlander} (-1½ Runs, -130) over Bluejays {D.Purcey}
7:05 PM -- Comerica Park
DETROIT TIGERS (76-66) -1 ½ Runs -130 over Toronto Blue Jays Pitching for Detroit: RH Justin Verlander (16-8, 3.24) Pitching for Toronto: LH David Purcey (0-2, 7.01) Starting Time: 7:05 TV: RSN Canada, Fox Sports Detroit
Mostly clear. Winds blowing out to right field at 10-15 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 75.
15 UnitsTigers {J.Verlander} (-1½ Runs, -130) over Bluejays {D.Purcey}
7:05 PM -- Comerica Park
DETROIT TIGERS (76-66) -1 ½ Runs -130 over Toronto Blue Jays Pitching for Detroit: RH Justin Verlander (16-8, 3.24) Pitching for Toronto: LH David Purcey (0-2, 7.01) Starting Time: 7:05 TV: RSN Canada, Fox Sports Detroit
Mostly clear. Winds blowing out to right field at 10-15 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 75.
FantasySportsGametime
Monday MLB Plays
MLB Baseball
25* Play Chicago Cubs (-155) over Milwaukee (MLB PLAY)
Chicago has won 5 of the last 6 games and they have also won 18 of the last 26 games as a home favorite of -150 to -200. Ryan Dempster has won 7 of the last 9 games as a home favorite of -150 to -200 and he is also 10-2 vs. Milwaukee over his career with an ERA of 3.33.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
25* Play Minnesota (-155) over Cleveland (MLB PLAY)
Cleveland has lost 10 of the last 13 games and they have also lost 9 of the last 13 games coming off seven or more home games. Jeremy Sowers has lost 17 of the last 22 games as a road underdog of +100 or higher and he has also lost 7 of the last 8 games when working on seven or more days of rest.
Monday MLB Plays
MLB Baseball
25* Play Chicago Cubs (-155) over Milwaukee (MLB PLAY)
Chicago has won 5 of the last 6 games and they have also won 18 of the last 26 games as a home favorite of -150 to -200. Ryan Dempster has won 7 of the last 9 games as a home favorite of -150 to -200 and he is also 10-2 vs. Milwaukee over his career with an ERA of 3.33.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
25* Play Minnesota (-155) over Cleveland (MLB PLAY)
Cleveland has lost 10 of the last 13 games and they have also lost 9 of the last 13 games coming off seven or more home games. Jeremy Sowers has lost 17 of the last 22 games as a road underdog of +100 or higher and he has also lost 7 of the last 8 games when working on seven or more days of rest.
Dave Malinsky
Dave Malinsky Top of the Ticket - Total
UNDER 7.5 RUNS,CINCINNATI REDS (Arroyo)-vs- Houston Astros (Rodriguez)
4* #901 HOUSTON/CINCINNATI Under
If you are looking for two hitter pitchers right now than Wandy Rodriguez or Bronson Arroyo, you have to look long and hard. But because neither pitches for a contender, and because Arrroyo in particular is being anchored down by full-season statistics that carry a lot of unnecessary clutter, we are afforded more than fair value here, especially with all key arms in both bullpens rested and ready. Rodriguez has held the opposition to one run or less in 11 of his last 13 starts, and absolutely brilliant run. But we also get a bonus here, as he only threw 85 pitches in his last outing, and that means more than the usual freshness for this time of the season. Meanwhile Arroyo battled with carpal tunnel syndrome earlier in the season, and it led to a couple of disastrous outings that inflated his ERA. But he is at full health now, and also full confidence, working to a sparkling 1.39 over his last six starts, a span in which he has worked at least seven full innings each time. And in his last three starts from this mound he has allowed only three runs over 24.1 frames. But because he was only credited with two wins over those six games the markets paid little attention, instead using his full-season numbers as an anchor to weigh him down. Neither Jose Valverde nor Francisco Cordero worked yesterday, as was the case with the prime set-up men. That means quality pitching from both sides in every inning of this one, and two struggling offenses will be hard-pressed to make anything happen.
Dave Malinsky Top of the Ticket - Total
UNDER 7.5 RUNS,CINCINNATI REDS (Arroyo)-vs- Houston Astros (Rodriguez)
4* #901 HOUSTON/CINCINNATI Under
If you are looking for two hitter pitchers right now than Wandy Rodriguez or Bronson Arroyo, you have to look long and hard. But because neither pitches for a contender, and because Arrroyo in particular is being anchored down by full-season statistics that carry a lot of unnecessary clutter, we are afforded more than fair value here, especially with all key arms in both bullpens rested and ready. Rodriguez has held the opposition to one run or less in 11 of his last 13 starts, and absolutely brilliant run. But we also get a bonus here, as he only threw 85 pitches in his last outing, and that means more than the usual freshness for this time of the season. Meanwhile Arroyo battled with carpal tunnel syndrome earlier in the season, and it led to a couple of disastrous outings that inflated his ERA. But he is at full health now, and also full confidence, working to a sparkling 1.39 over his last six starts, a span in which he has worked at least seven full innings each time. And in his last three starts from this mound he has allowed only three runs over 24.1 frames. But because he was only credited with two wins over those six games the markets paid little attention, instead using his full-season numbers as an anchor to weigh him down. Neither Jose Valverde nor Francisco Cordero worked yesterday, as was the case with the prime set-up men. That means quality pitching from both sides in every inning of this one, and two struggling offenses will be hard-pressed to make anything happen.
