Service Plays Monday 08/31/09

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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NFL DUNKEL

Week 3

MONDAY, AUGUST 31

Game 281-282: Minnesota at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 120.194; Houston 120.290
Dunkel Line: Even; 39
Vegas Line: Houston by 3; 41
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+3); Under

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL LONG SHEET

Week 3

Monday, August 31

MINNESOTA (2 - 0) at HOUSTON (1 - 1) - 8/31/2009, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL SHORT SHEET

Week 3

Monday, 8/31/2009

MINNESOTA at HOUSTON, 8:00 PM ET ESPN
MINNESOTA: 5-0 ATS in non-conf games
HOUSTON: 1-5 ATS as a favorite

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

THE SPORTS ADVISORS

MONDAY, AUGUST 31

NFL PRESEASON


Minnesota (2-0 SU and ATS) at Houston (1-1 SU and ATS)

Brett Favre is slated to see extensive action under center as he leads the Vikings against the Texans in a nationally televised contest from Reliant Stadium in Houston.

Minnesota rallied past the Chiefs 17-13, barely cashing as a three-point home chalk last week as Favre played just two series and went 1-for-4 for 4 yards. Minnesota coach Brad Childress has said the veteran QB will play the first half tonight with the rest of the offensive starters. The second half will be a battle between Tarvaris Jackson and Sage Rosenfels who are now competing for the backup QB spot. Expect Jackson, who threw two TD passes last week, to take over in the third quarter with Rosenfels playing the fourth quarter.

The Vikings will have all 11 defensive starters in the game for the entire first half, including DE Jared Allen, who missed last week’s win over Kansas City, and DL Pat Williams, who has missed both exhibition contests.

Houston got roughed up by the Saints last Saturday, falling 38-14 as a three-point home favorite. Starting QB Matt Schaub gave the Texans a 7-0 lead in the contest with an 8-yard TD pass in the first quarter. Gary Kubiak’s QB rotation will be simple tonight as Schaub will play into the third quarter with the rest of the starting offense. He’ll be relieved by backup QB Dan Orlovsky, who will finish the contest as Rex Grossman remains sidelined with a hamstring injury.

Minnesota is 4-1 ATS in its last five exhibition games, including a 13-3 road win at the Colts as a 2 ½-point favorite in Week 1. Since Childress took over in 2006, the Vikings are 5-2 ATS (4-2-1 SU) in exhibition road games, 5-2 ATS as an underdog and 2-1 ATS (1-2 SU) in Week 3 action.

Houston has cashed in all three dress-rehearsal Week 3 games under Kubiak, but all three were as an underdog as the Texans lost two of those contests straight-up. In fact, Houston is just 1-5 SU in Week 3 action since 2003 and 1-5-2 ATS as a favorite since 2004.

The over is 8-2 in Houston’s last 10 preseason contests (4-1 at home), while the Vikings have followed up an 8-4 “over” run in exhibition play by staying below the posted price in its last three summer outings.

ATS ADVANTAGE: MINNESOTA


NATIONAL LEAGUE

Atlanta (68-62) at Florida (68-62)

Braves rookie Kenshin Kawakami (6-10, 4.08 ERA) makes what is likely his final start before being bumped to the bullpen as Atlanta travels to Land Shark Stadium to face the Marlins and ace Josh Johnson (13-3, 3.04).

Atlanta dropped two of three in Philadelphia over the weekend, including Sunday night’s 3-2 loss. The Braves are still on runs of 6-3 on the road, 4-2 against right-handed starters and 5-3 against the N.L. East, however they have lost four straight series openers and they’re 5-12 in their last 17 Monday games.

Florida ended a three-game losing streak with a 6-4 win Sunday over the Padres. The Marlins are riding positive streaks of 7-1 on Mondays, 7-1 in series openers, and a slew of positives with Johnson on the hill, including 36-16 overall, 19-7 at home, 23-6 against the N.L. East and 12-1 at home against teams with winning records.

The Marlins hold a slim 6-5 edge in the season series between these rivals, with the visitor winning seven of the 11 contests.

Kawakami, who will lose his spot in the rotation Tuesday when Atlanta activates Tim Hudson, gave up four runs on seven hits over 5 1/3 innings on Wednesday, losing 12-5 at home to the Padres. Prior to that outing, the right-hander had given up just four runs in 20 1/3 innings in his previous three starts, all Atlanta wins. Kawakami is 4-5 with a 4.54 ERA in 12 road starts this year and 0-2 with an 8.44 ERA in two starts against Florida, losing 6-2 at home and 6-3 in South Beach.

In Wednesday’s home outing against the Mets, Johnson allowed three runs in six innings, beating the Mets 5-3 while improving to 7-1 with a 2.26 ERA in 13 home outings, 11 of which Florida has won. In his lone start against Atlanta this season he allowed three runs on eight hits in six innings but scored a 6-3 victory at home. The Marlins are 7-3 with Johnson on the hill against the Braves, with the right-hander going 4-1 with a 2.67 ERA in those 10 contests.

The under is 7-2 in Kawakami’s last nine starts (4-1 on the road), but as a team the Braves are on “over” runs of 8-4 on the road and 9-4 on the road against winning teams. Florida is on a plethora of “over” streaks, including 7-1 with Johnson pitching, 13-3-2 when he pitches a series opener, 21-8-1 as a team overall and 15-3 at Land Shark Stadium.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER


AMERICAN LEAGUE

L.A. Angels (77-52) at Seattle (68-63)

It’s a battle of southpaws at Safeco Field, as the Angels’ send Joe Saunders (10-7, 5.27 ERA) to the mound to open a three-game set against the Mariners and Lucas French (4-3, 3.92).

The Angels had dropped seven of 10 before crushing the A’s 9-1 on Sunday behind the pitching of John Lackey, who allowed just one run on five hits over eight innings. Los Angeles has dropped four of its last five series openers, but otherwise it is on several positive runs, including 48-23 overall, 23-9 on the road, 25-9 against left-handed starters and 17-4 on the road against southpaws.

Seattle got one-hit by Royals ace Zack Greinke on Sunday, losing 3-0, falling for just the second time in its last seven games. The Mariners are riding positive runs of 6-2 at home, 4-1 against the A.L. West and 4-1 in French’s five starts since being traded to the team from Detroit. The Mariners are also 7-6 against the Angels this year, with five of the wins coming as an underdog.

Despite tailing Seattle in the season series this year, the Angels are still 41-20 in the last 61 clashes over the past three-plus years.

Saunders is 2-1 with a 7.82 ERA in his last three starts, but he was solid in Wednesday’s 4-2 home win over the Tigers, giving up two runs on four hits in five innings in his first start after returning from a stint on the disabled list. Saunders has been brutal on the road recently, giving up 22 earned runs in his last 21 1/3 innings on the highway, and he’s 5-4 with a 6.12 ERA in 11 road starts.

The Halos have won seven straight games against Seattle with Saunders on the hill, with two of those wins coming this year. For his career, Saunders is 6-1 with a 3.40 ERA in nine starts against the Mariners, including a 1.61 ERA in his last four games versus Seattle and 4-0 with a 3.18 ERA in five starts at Safeco.

French is making his sixth start in a Mariners’ uniform and coming off Wednesday’s 5-3 home win over the A’s when he gave up three runs in 5 2/3 innings. The Mariners’ lone loss with French on the mound was Aug. 15 when he allowed four runs (none earned) in six innings of a 5-2 loss to the Yankees. Tonight, he’s making his first start against Los Angeles.

With Saunders on the hill, L.A. is on several “over” runs, including 16-5 overall, 6-0 on the road, 6-0 in series openers and 9-1 when he faces a team with a winning record. Meanwhile as a team, the Angels have topped the total in 37 of 55 overall, 13 of 19 on the road, five straight on Mondays and 15 of 23 against teams with winning records. Meanwhile, Seattle has gone “over” the total in six of eight series openers, but it has stayed “under” the number in 17 of 22 against division rivals.

Finally, the over is 13-6 in the last 19 series clashes in Seattle, but the under is 4-1 in the last five Angels-Mariners battles overall.

ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. ANGELS

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB DUNKEL


Houston at Chicago Cubs
The Cubs look to take advantage of a Houston team that is 1-5 in its last 6 games as an underdog. Chicago is the pick (-150) according to Dunkel, which has the Cubs favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-150). Here are all of today's picks.

MONDAY, AUGUST 31

Game 901-902: Pittsburgh at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (McCutchen) 15.030; Cincinnati (Wells) 14.086
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1; 10
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 903-904: Pittsburgh at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Maholm) 14.431; Cincinnati (Cueto) 14.872
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 905-906: Atlanta at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Kawakami) 14.622; Florida (Johnson) 14.920
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Florida (-165); 8
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-165); Under

Game 907-908: Houston at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Oswalt) 14.287; Cubs (Harden) 14.668
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-150); No Run Line
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-150); N/A

Game 909-910: Washington at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Hernandez) 14.188; San Diego (Stauffer) 14.618
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: San Diego (-145); 8
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-145); Over

Game 911-912: Arizona at LA Dodgers
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Davis) 15.932; LA Dodgers (Wolf) 16.442
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-180); 8
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-180); Over

Game 913-914: Tampa Bay at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Shields) 15.110; Detroit (Washburn) 16.168
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Detroit (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-115); Under

Game 915-916: NY Yankees at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Pettitte) 16.990; Baltimore (Guthrie) 16.132
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-180); 10
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-180); Over

Game 917-918: Toronto at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Cecil) 13.798; Texas (Holland) 16.165
Dunkel Line: Texas by 2 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Texas (-165); 10
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-165); Under

Game 919-920: Chicago White Sox at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Floyd) 14.663; Minnesota (Blackburn) 15.575
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-110); 9
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-110); Over

Game 921-922: Kansas City at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Hochevar) 14.334; Oakland (Gonzalez) 15.129
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Oakland (-130); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-130); Under

Game 923-924: LA Angels at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Saunders) 15.456; Seattle (French) 15.073
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-140); 9
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-140); Under

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Hondo

August 31, 2009

Hondo was unable to sustain any momentum from his split Saturday, dropping two yesterday with the Blue Jays and Pirates to increase the IOUs to 905 aparicios.

Today, he'll test the loyalty of a couple of short 'dogs named Washburn and Floyd -- 10 units apiece on the Tigers and White Sox.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Arthur Ralph Sports
317 - 212 run 60 % on free selections

Texas -160

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Scott Ferrall

MLB FREE PICKS FOR MONDAY
PICKS ARE IN ALL CAPS AND RANKED IN ORDER OF CONFIDENCE ( )


Atlanta (Kawakami)

FLORIDA (JOHNSON) -155 (1)


Arizona (Davis)

DODGERS (WOLF) -180 (2)


YANKEES (PETTITTE) -180 (3)

Baltimore (Guthrie)


Run Totals

Arizona / Dodgers UNDER 8

Yankees / Baltimore OVER 9 ½

Tampa Bay / Detroit UNDER 8 ½

Toronto / Texas OVER 10

 

[mp5070]

John Morrison

[A] bet on WhiteSOX RL official

[A] bet on Oriols RL unofficial

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Joe wiz Bonus Plays

rays
cws/minn under
sea/laa under

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Cappers access

Texans
Rays

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Wunderdog Horse Selection

SARATOGA Race #2 at 1:30 PM Eastern

Top pick: #6 (FOR LOVE ALONE) - He just missed (by a nose) here earlier in the meet in the best effort of her career. Speed/stalker draws outside of her main rivals and she has many "options" from there. The top pick.​

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2nd pick: #1 (A Smart Judge) - Has some speed and earlier this season she finished second at Belmont at this condition and distance. Filly tired in her local debut after racing within range while wide. Has the rail and is a win candidate.​

3rd pick: #3 (Won Token) - Daughter of "Gold Token" moves back to the dirt after competing in five straight grass races. Filly was competitive in a pair on the dirt earlier this year. Working well and she's a contender.​

4th pick: #2 (Laylaben) - Nicely-bred filly ("Not For Love") debuts for a barn that has quietly had a solid meet here (16-4-4-1). Works are about average and trainer hasn't won (0 for 22) with a first-time-starter the past 18 months. Field is a weak one for the level.​

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Gina

Monday, August 31st, 2009 7:05 p.m. est.

New York Yankees (82-48) at Baltimore Orioles (54-77)
(L) Andy Pettitte (11-6) vs. (R) Jeremy Guthrie (9-12)

Take the Yankees with veteran left-hander Andy Pettitte (11-6, 4.18 ERA) on the hill. New York has won the last seven meetings versus Baltimore and Pettitte's last six starts against them. The right-hander is 25-6 with a 3.65 ERA in his career against the Orioles. Meanwhile, Baltimore has dropped five of its last 7 home games and counters with Jeremy Guthrie (9-12, 5.26). The right-hander is 2-0 with a 4.12 ERA in his last three starts, but 1-2 with a 5.21 ERA in three outings against the Yankees this year, 3-4 with a 4.82 ERA in nine career starts. The Orioles are 2-5 in Guthrie’s last 7 starts against the Yankees. New York is 7-2 in Pettitte's last 9 starts versus Orioles at Camden Yards.

New York Yankees -185

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB Computer Picks

Texas Rangers -170
Los Angeles Angels -140
Los Angeles Dodgers -180

NFL
Minnesota Vikings +3½

 

[mp5070]

Bryan Leonard's Monday Afternoon Delight

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati

The Pirates are bringing up their top minor league pitching prospect Daniel McCutchen to make his major league debut today against the Reds. The young righty came over in the offseason in the Xavier Nady deal. The team really likes his competitive spirit and his numbers have been solid this year in Triple A. He was 13-6 with a 3.47 ERA pitching in Indianapolis. The Reds have never faced him which gives a big edge to the youngster.


On the other side of the spectrum the Reds are starting rehashed veteran Kip Wells. The former Cardinal and Rockie has been in and out of the league for the past few seasons, and for good reason. In his last seven starts at the major league level he has allowed 35 earned runs in only 34.2 innings of work. The last time he faced the Pirates was in 2007 and he permitted 6 earned runs on 10 hits in 3.1 innings of work.

The Pirates are still playing with a fire even after trading away all their better known players. This has given the young kids a chance to shine and they are taking full advantage. The wrong team is favored here and we swoop in with gusto.

PLAY PITTSBURGH

 

[mp5070]

Hot lines: Monday's best MLB bets


Houston Astros at Chicago Cubs (-140, NL)

Rich Harden may be headed to the Minnesota Twins. Milton Bradley may be talking his way out of town. But both are still helping the Cubs.

The Twins reportedly were awarded a waiver claim on Harden, who has not allowed more than two earned runs in his last eight starts. The Cubs have until noon Monday to let him go, pull him back or swing a trade, and Minnesota appears serious about acquiring the righthander and signing him to a long-term deal.

Bradley said last week he is "never comfortable" at Wrigley Field, accusing the fans of being verbally abusive and racist, then blaming the media for "twisted" his words. He has been booed for poor play for much of the season but is batting .545 (12-for-22) with nine runs, five walks and five RBI in his last five games.

The Cubs are 4-2 at home vs. the Astros this season, including a win over Wandy Rodriguez on July 27.

Pick: Chicago

New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles (+165, 10)

It's no shame to lose to the powerhouse Yankees, but the Orioles seem to do it with alarming regularity.

Since July 30, 2008, Baltimore has lost 16 of its last 19 meetings with New York. In those games, the Yankees are averaging 6.4 runs and have scored at least nine runs five times. The Orioles are averaging 3.9 runs and have scored two runs or less six times.

The Yankees have won the last seven meetings, averaging 6.6 runs while holding the Orioles to an average of three runs.

Baltimore also has lost its last eight games on Monday.

Pick: New York

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dave Malinsky

Top of the Ticket - Total

UNDER 7.5 RUNS,CHICAGO CUBS (Harden)-vs- Houston Astros (Oswalt)

4* #908 CHICAGO CUBS/HOUSTON Under

On a cool August evening in Wrigley with the wind blowing in, Rich Harden and Roy Oswalt have a chance to dominate the proceedings. Our key is that with Oswalt showing a 7-5/3.86 and Harden an 8-7/3.99 for the full season we are getting much more to work with than we should in terms of this Total. Injuries were factors for each of these veteran starters, and as such the numbers lag behind their form. Oswalt?s season has been interrupted a couple of times, but in his last two starts we saw the clear indications that he is getting his full strength back, not walking a single batter in holding the Diamondbacks and Cardinals to three runs over 13 innings. Meanwhile Harden has been as good as any pitcher in the game since the All Star break, sporting a 3-1/1.80 that only tells part of the story ? a commanding ratio of 60 strikeouts vs. only 25 hits allowed is about as good as it gets over that length of time (eight starts). The offenses do not get in the way here ? the Astros are averaging 2.7 runs per game on this road trip through the first six outings, while the Cubs are forced to step way up in class after facing the likes of Garrett Mock, Livan Hernandez, J. D. Martin, Patrick Misch, Bobby Parnell and Nelson Figueroa the past six games, a group that they did not distinguish themselves against anyway. And with no fatigue issues for either bullpen, the limited amount needed from them will be in good hands.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Randall the Handle

Washington +130 over SAN DIEGO PINNACLE

This one is pretty much a no-brainer and it goes something like this. The Nats aren’t that bad, they’re just having a brutal year after a horrific start. The Padres are bad, as they can’t hit, nor can they do much of anything else. If they played in a different park, its pitching staff would be as gassed as anyone’s. Player for player, the Nats are superior and not many could make an argument otherwise. So, when the Padres are favored, and because their chances of losing is greater than its chances of winning, the dog is always the right play against them and this one is no exception. The Padres –1.40 or thereabouts is simply ludicrous.

Play: Washington +1.30 (Risking 2 units).

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

FantasySportsGametime


Monday MLB Plays


MLB Baseball

50* Play NY Yankees (-170) over Baltimore (MLB PLAY)

New York has won 4 of the last 5 games and they have also won 9 of the last 12 games vs. Baltimore. Andy Pettitte has won 5 consecutive games when playing in the month of August and he is also 20-6 vs. Baltimore over his career with an ERA of 3.69.

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50* Play Texas (-160) over Toronto (MLB PLAY)

Toronto has lost 5 of the last 6 games and they have also lost 12 of the last 15 road games as an underdog of +150 or higher. Brett Cecil has lost 3 consecutive games as an underdog of +125 to +175 and he is also 0-2 over the last 3 starts with an ERA of 8.26.