Dr Bob
One Best Bet for Monday.
Rotation #520 Oklahoma State (+2 1/2) 2-Stars at +2 or more.
After a good week last week, I'm close to my high point of the season after suffering a bad stretch prior to last week. I am now 182-153-11 on a Star Basis (3-1 on 4-Stars, 38-23-3 on 3-Stars and 28-40-1 on 2-Stars) for a profit of +13.7 Stars at -1.10 odds. The 2-Stars being well below 50% is strange considering my 2-Stars have been a profitable 54% over the years and I expect the 2-Stars to be profitable going forward. Thankfully, the 3-Stars and 4-Stars have been much better than expected and overall I'm close to my normal pace on a Star Basis. I am a very profitable 55% over my career on my Basketball Best Bets for an average of close to 50 Stars of profit per season and that's still my goal for this season.
My opinions have been only 38-53-1 this season and I once again want to stress that I do not bet the opinions. If they were good enough to bet I would make them Best Bets. That being said, the opinions have actually been a profitable 53% over the years in basketball and were very good last year at 58%. I can't recall having a season in which the opinions were below 50%, so it's a bit random that they haven't done well so far. I continue to put the opinions in the emails, even though I don't bet them, because every time I stop putting the opinions in the emails I get complaints from clients that want them. If you are playing the opinions, you are doing so at your own risk, although I do expect them to win at the normal rate of 53% going forward (but even that slight profit isn't worth the additional risk).
2 Star Selection
**OKLAHOMA STATE (+2 ½) over Oklahoma
06:00 PM Pacific - Rotation 520
Both of these teams have a history of playing better at home than they do on the road and I don’t mind taking the host Cowboys tonight given that they apply to a very good 125-42-4 ATS situation. Oklahoma State has performed better at home (3-2 ATS) than they have on the road (1-2 ATS) and that has been the case over the years as the Cowboys are 105-88-4 ATS in Stillwater since 1990 and only 83-96-5 ATS on the road. Oklahoma, meanwhile, is 19-12-1 ATS at home in 3 seasons under Jeff Capel, but just 7-15-2 ATS on the road. My ratings favor Oklahoma by 2.8 points using a standard home court advantage, but the opening line of Sooners by 2 points is more fair given the additional home court value in this game. The line is more than fair and the situation is good, and I’ll take Oklahoma State in a 2-Star Best Bet at +2 points or more.
Monday College Opinion
Marquette (+3) over NOTRE DAME
Notre Dame has been exposed as nothing more than a borderline NCAA tournament team, as the Irish have gone just 3-4 in Big East play (2-5 ATS) with consecutive convincing losses to Louisville, Syracuse, and Connecticut. Marquette, meanwhile, started the season playing below expectations, but the Eagles have picked up their level of play and are riding a 9 game win streak heading into tonight’s game. Notre Dame being favored by 3 points can be justified using all games for each team, but I favor Marquette by 3 points using only games against decent competition and I’d be on the Eagles if not for the fact that the Irish are 8-0-1 ATS after 3 or more consecutive losses under coach Mike Brey.
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One Best Bet for Monday.
Rotation #520 Oklahoma State (+2 1/2) 2-Stars at +2 or more.
After a good week last week, I'm close to my high point of the season after suffering a bad stretch prior to last week. I am now 182-153-11 on a Star Basis (3-1 on 4-Stars, 38-23-3 on 3-Stars and 28-40-1 on 2-Stars) for a profit of +13.7 Stars at -1.10 odds. The 2-Stars being well below 50% is strange considering my 2-Stars have been a profitable 54% over the years and I expect the 2-Stars to be profitable going forward. Thankfully, the 3-Stars and 4-Stars have been much better than expected and overall I'm close to my normal pace on a Star Basis. I am a very profitable 55% over my career on my Basketball Best Bets for an average of close to 50 Stars of profit per season and that's still my goal for this season.
My opinions have been only 38-53-1 this season and I once again want to stress that I do not bet the opinions. If they were good enough to bet I would make them Best Bets. That being said, the opinions have actually been a profitable 53% over the years in basketball and were very good last year at 58%. I can't recall having a season in which the opinions were below 50%, so it's a bit random that they haven't done well so far. I continue to put the opinions in the emails, even though I don't bet them, because every time I stop putting the opinions in the emails I get complaints from clients that want them. If you are playing the opinions, you are doing so at your own risk, although I do expect them to win at the normal rate of 53% going forward (but even that slight profit isn't worth the additional risk).
2 Star Selection
**OKLAHOMA STATE (+2 ½) over Oklahoma
06:00 PM Pacific - Rotation 520
Both of these teams have a history of playing better at home than they do on the road and I don’t mind taking the host Cowboys tonight given that they apply to a very good 125-42-4 ATS situation. Oklahoma State has performed better at home (3-2 ATS) than they have on the road (1-2 ATS) and that has been the case over the years as the Cowboys are 105-88-4 ATS in Stillwater since 1990 and only 83-96-5 ATS on the road. Oklahoma, meanwhile, is 19-12-1 ATS at home in 3 seasons under Jeff Capel, but just 7-15-2 ATS on the road. My ratings favor Oklahoma by 2.8 points using a standard home court advantage, but the opening line of Sooners by 2 points is more fair given the additional home court value in this game. The line is more than fair and the situation is good, and I’ll take Oklahoma State in a 2-Star Best Bet at +2 points or more.
Monday College Opinion
Marquette (+3) over NOTRE DAME
Notre Dame has been exposed as nothing more than a borderline NCAA tournament team, as the Irish have gone just 3-4 in Big East play (2-5 ATS) with consecutive convincing losses to Louisville, Syracuse, and Connecticut. Marquette, meanwhile, started the season playing below expectations, but the Eagles have picked up their level of play and are riding a 9 game win streak heading into tonight’s game. Notre Dame being favored by 3 points can be justified using all games for each team, but I favor Marquette by 3 points using only games against decent competition and I’d be on the Eagles if not for the fact that the Irish are 8-0-1 ATS after 3 or more consecutive losses under coach Mike Brey.
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