THE SPORTS ADVISORS
MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 7
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
Cincinnati at Rutgers
The Bearcats will try to make it four in a row over Big East rival Rutgers when these two open the season with a conference clash at Rutgers Stadium in New Jersey.
Cincinnati won the Big East last season thanks to six straight wins (4-2 ATS) to close the regular season. The conference crown got the Bearcats into the Orange Bowl where they fell to Virginia Tech 20-7, getting upset as 2½-point favorites
Cincy coach Brian Kelly has Tony Pike back under center, coming off a 2008 campaign that saw him throw for 2,407 yards, 19 TDs and 11 INTs. However, Pike threw four of those INTs in the Orange Bowl loss, and he missed the Rutgers contest with a broken left arm.
After a brutal 1-5 (2-3 ATS) start to 2008, the Scarlet Knights rallied to win their final seven games, including a 63-14 dismantling of Louisville in the regular-season finale to make them bowl eligible. Rutgers then beat N.C. State 29-23 in the Papajohns.com Bowl in Alabama, pushing as a six-point favorite.
Knights coach Greg Schiano has not decided on a QB replacement for longtime starter Mike Teel, who graduated and is now with the Seattle Seahawks. Schiano said he might use all three of QBs, including fifth-year seniors Dom Natlae and Jabu Lovelace as well as true freshman Tom Savage.
The Bearcats have gotten the cash in five of the last seven meetings with Rutgers, dating back to 1989. Since they became Big East rivals in 2005, Cincinnati has gone 3-1 SU (2-2 ATS), winning each of the last three, including last year’s 13-10 home win, coming up short as a seven-point chalk. The underdog has cashed in each of the last three clashes between these two and seven of the last nine.
Cincinnati is on several positive ATS streaks, including 7-2 in September, 4-1 in Big East action, 9-1-1 as a ‘dog and 5-1-1 as a road pup. Meanwhile, the Scarlet Knights failed to cover in all four September games in 2008, but they’re 5-0-1 ATS in their last six overall, including four consecutive covers in Big East action.
It’s been all “overs” lately for the Bearcats, including four straight on the road, five of six in September, eight of 11 on grass and four of five as road ‘dogs. Rutgers has gone over the posted total in four straight Big East games and four of five on grass.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Miami, Fla. at (18) Florida State
The Hurricanes make the trek to Tallahassee to take on Florida State at Doak Campbell Stadium for this annual battle between Atlantic Coast Conference rivals.
It was a season of streaks in 2008 for Miami, which opened 2-3 (2-2 ATS) before winning five straight (3-2 ATS) in the middle portion of the season, only to lose three straight (1-2 ATS) to finish the campaign. The season ended with the Hurricanes falling to California 24-17 in the Emerald Bowl in San Francisco, though they covered as 10-point underdogs.
Miami’s third-year coach Randy Shannon has sophomore QB Jacory Harris (1,195 yards, 12 TDs, 5 INTs) back after he split time with Robert Marve last season. The ‘Canes will be without four key defensive players for the opener, including ends Eric Moncur and Adewale Ojomo, as well as DBs Ryan Hill and Vaughn Telemaque.
Florida State came out of the gate strong in 2008, winning six of seven (3-2 ATS) before alternating wins and losses over the final six games (3-2-1 ATS). The season ended on a strong note, though, as the Seminoles blew out Wisconsin 42-13 as a seven point favorite in the Champs Sports Bowl, the schools’ 27th consecutive bowl appearance.
Entering his 34th season with the Seminoles, 79-year-old coach Bobby Bowden has got junior QB Christian Ponder back after a solid sophomore campaign in which he threw for 2,006 yards and while rushing for 426 yards and four scores. However, Ponder nearly matched his TD production with 13 INTs.
Ponder torched the Hurricanes for 159 yards passing and 144 rushing in Florida State’s 41-39 victory last season, cashing as a one-point road ‘dog. Miami leads the series with the Seminoles, 30-23 SU, but Florida State has won and covered three of the last four after losing six straight to start the decade (1-5 ATS). The underdog has cashed in eight of the last 10 series meetings, including seven straight (not including one pick-em in 2004). Miami has had luck at Tallahassee recently, too, cashing in four of its last five visits to Doak Campbell Stadium.
The Hurricanes are on ATS runs of 6-2 on the road and 4-1 as a ‘dog, but they are just 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 ACC games. Florida State is 4-1 ATS in its last five as a favorite and 4-1 ATS in its last five has home chalk.
The “under” has been the play in 13 of Miami’s last 18 September kickoffs and four of its last five as a pup. Conversely, FSU is on “over” streaks of 5-2 overall, 5-1 at home and 5-1 when favored. Finally, the under is on a 6-2 roll in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Tampa Bay (72-64) at N.Y. Yankees (87-49)
With its hopes of winning the A.L. wild card fading away, the freefalling Rays travel up the East Coast for a day-night doubleheader against the first-place Yankees in the Bronx. Tampa Bay’s Matt Garza (7-9, 4.01 ERA) is scheduled to oppose CC Sabathia (16-7, 3.48) in the opener, with Andy Sonnanstine (6-8, 6.62) matching up against New York’s A.J. Burnett (10-8, 4.29) in the nightcap.
Tampa Bay capped a rare losing homestand with Sunday’s 5-3 loss to the Tigers. Not only were the Rays swept in the three-game series, they blew late-inning leads in all three games, including a 3-1, ninth-inning advantage Sunday. The Rays dropped five of six on the homestand, including the last four in a row, and they’re just 3-9 in their last 12 contests to fall way off the pace in the wild-card race.
The Yankees return home following a 5-2 road trip to Baltimore and Toronto that ended with Sunday’s 14-8 loss to the Blue Jays. New York has won eight of its last 10 and is on additional surges of 49-18 overall, 39-13 at home, 23-6 against divisional foes, 11-4 against teams with a winning record, 7-3 on Monday and 30-10 against right-handed starters.
New York has won four of the last five meetings against Tampa Bay this year and is 55-24 in the last 79 series clashes in the Bronx. The visitor is 7-3 in the last 10 battles.
Garza got a no-decision in his team’s 8-5 home win over the Red Sox on Wednesday, yielding four runs on six hits in 6 2/3 innings. The veteran right-hander has allowed 10 runs in his last two starts covering 11 2/3 innings (7.71 ERA). The Rays are 5-1 in Garza’s last six outings against A.L. East foes, but just 4-8 when he pitches on the road this year, with Garza going 3-5 with a 4.89 ERA as a visitor.
Sabathia is 6-0 in his last seven trips to the mound (all Yankees victories), posting a 2.44 ERA in his last six outings, including a 1.23 ERA in his last two starts at home in which he manhandled the Red Sox (5-0 on Aug. 8) and White Sox (5-2 on Aug. 28). The hefty lefty is 8-1 in nine starts since July 18, including 3-0 with a 1.57 ERA in four games in the Bronx (all New York wins).
After getting demoted to Triple-A for more than two months, Sonnanstine returned to the big leagues on Tuesday and did not fare well against the Red Sox, allowing five runs (three earned) in four innings of an 8-4 home loss. The right-hander is 1-2 with a 6.46 ERA in his last three major-league starts going back to June, and he’s been a disaster on the road this year, going 1-7 with an 8.22 ERA (but 1-1 with a 4.40 ERA in two games at new Yankee Stadium).
Burnett squandered six runs (all earned) on 11 hits and two walks in just 5 1/3 innings at Baltimore on Tuesday, but New York rallied for a 9-6 victory, ending an 0-3 run behind the right-hander. Burnett is still 0-2 with a 9.92 ERA in his last three outings, but he’s 4-2 with a 3.47 ERA in 13 starts at new Yankee Stadium, with his squad going 10-3. In fact, with Burnett on the bump, New York is on surges of 9-4 overall, 7-1 at home and 6-1 against divisional rivals.
Garza has faced New York eight times in his career (seven starts), going 1-3 with a 3.80 ERA, including 0-1 with a 2.84 ERA in three contests this year, with Tampa Bay losing all three. In fact, the Rays are 0-5 in Garza’s last five appearances against the Yanks. Meanwhile, Sonnanstine is 2-2 with a 5.23 ERA in seven lifetime starts against the Bronx Bombers (0-1, 4.19 ERA in three starts this year).
Sabathia is 7-2 with a 2.95 ERA in 13 career starts against the Rays, but 0-1 with 5.93 ERA in two starts this year. Burnett is 9-4 with a 2.86 ERA in 19 starts versus Tampa Bay (2-0, 2.14 in three outings this season).
With Sabathia pitching, the over is 4-1 in his last five overall, but the under is 4-1-1 in his last six at home. Also, the under is 15-6-1 in Burnett’s last 22 starts overall, 6-0 in his last six at home and 7-3 in his last 10 against the A.L. East
The over is 7-3 in Sonnanstine’s last 10 starts overall, but with Garza pitching, the “under” is on streaks of 38-13-3 overall, 21-7-1 on the road, 17-5-1 when he pitches on grass and 7-1 against the A.L. East.
For Tampa Bay, the “over” is on runs of 4-1-1 overall, 5-0 on Monday, 5-1-1 against A.L. East foes and 7-0-1 in the second game of a doubleheader, but the under is 4-1 in its last five on the road. Meanwhile, New York has topped the total in five of its last six overall (all against divisional opponents) and six of its last seven against winning teams, but the under is 15-7-1 in the Yankees’ last 23 games in the Bronx and 4-1 in their last five on Monday.
Finally, in this rivalry, the under is on runs of 4-1 overall and 9-4 in New York.
ATS ADVANTAGE (GAME 1): N.Y. YANKEES and UNDER
ATS ADVANTAGE (GAME 2): N.Y. YANKEES and UNDER
Boston (79-57) at Chicago White Sox (68-70)
The Red Sox send struggling ace Josh Beckett (14-5, 3.87 ERA) back to the mound in the finale of a four-game series at US Cellular Field, with the White Sox countering with Mark Buehrle (11-7, 3.86), who will try once again to notch his first win in more than six weeks.
Chicago lost the first three meetings of the season to Boston 10 days ago at Fenway Park, getting outscored 21-13, but came back to win the series finale at Fenway and the first three games of this series by the combined tally of 26-8. However, the Red Sox put themselves in position to get a split of this series with Sunday’s 6-1 victory. Boston is 15-6 in the last 21 meetings in this rivalry.
The White Sox have followed up a five-game losing streak by going 4-1 in its last five, and they’re 11-4 in their last 15 at home against right-handed starters. On the downside, they’ve lost four of their last five on Monday, eight of 11 versus the A.L. East and 18 of 25 when closing out a four-game set.
Boston has lost three of its last five following a 7-1 uptick. Still, the Red Sox are on positive runs of 47-19 against the A.L. Central, 11-3 when facing teams with a losing record and 8-2 on Monday.
Beckett is actually coming off his best start in nearly a month, but he still gave up five runs (four earned) in six innings at Tampa Bay, getting a no-decision in his team’s 8-5 loss. Beckett is 6-4 with a 4.22 ERA in 14 road starts this season, but he’s surrendered 25 runs (24 earned) in his last four outings (two home, two road) covering 24 1/3 innings (8.88 ERA), yet remarkably Boston has managed to split those four games.
Despite Beckett’s struggles over the past month, the Red Sox are still 20-8 in his last 28 trips to the hill, 21-5 in his last 26 against losing teams, 15-3 in his last 18 against the A.L. Central and 5-0 when he closes out a four-game series. Boston has also won Beckett’s last four starts against Chicago, against whom the Texas native is 4-0 with a 3.68 ERA in five career efforts.
Buehrle has been much better in his last two starts, giving up two runs over six innings in each contest. On Thursday at Minnesota, he stood to a lose a 2-0 decision before the White Sox hit back-to-back home runs with two outs in the top of the ninth, then followed with two more runs in the inning to steal a 4-2 victory. Still, Buehrle remains winless in eight starts since his perfect game on July 23, going 0-4 with four no-decisions. He’s 7-4 with a 3.74 ERA in 16 starts this year on the South Side.
The ChiSox are an impressive 61-28 in Buehrle’s last 89 starts at US Cellular Field. Otherwise, though, Chicago behind Buehrle is in ruts of 2-6 overall, 4-10 on Monday, 2-6 when he faces Boston and 2-5 when he pitches at home against the BoSox. He’s 5-5 with a 4.71 ERA in 12 career outings against the Red Sox.
Chicago carries nothing but “under” trends, including 15-4 overall, 7-1 at home, 9-4 against the A.L. East, 7-3 on Monday, 38-18-2 against winning teams and 38-19-3 versus right-handed starters. Also, the under is 5-1 in Buehrle’s last six starts overall and 4-1 in his last five versus the A.L. East. Conversely, Boston is on “over” tears of 5-2-1 against southpaw starters and 5-0 with Beckett on the hill.
In this rivalry, the under is 7-3-1 in the last 10 meetings overall and 5-2 in the last seven battles on the South Side.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
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