StatSystemsSports
Inside The Huddle – Friday
#303 PITTSBURGH @ #304 BOSTON COLLEGE
TV: 7:00 PM EST, ESPN
Line: Pittsburgh -4, Total: 49
Pittsburgh and Boston College used rushing performances that connected them to their glorious pasts en route to easy season-opening wins last weekend. The former Big East rivals try to do the same Friday evening when they face each other for the first time as Atlantic Coast Conference foes as BC hosts the Panthers. Florida transfer Tyler Murphy threw for 173 yards and rushed for 118 versus Massachusetts, becoming the first Eagles quarterback since Doug Flutie in 1984 to rush for more than 100 yards.
The Eagles generated 338 of their 511 total yards on the ground in a 30-7 triumph – their first game since the graduation of Heisman Trophy finalist Andre Williams, who became only the 16th player in NCAA history to rush for more than 2,000 yards last year. Pittsburgh’s own bruising back – 250-pound James Conner – ripped FCS Delaware for 153 yards and four touchdowns in one half during a 62-0 victory, part of 409-yard rushing effort that was the most for the school since the 1976 national championship season. The Eagles and Panthers, who met every year from 1993-2004, resume their rivalry after a 10-year break.
•ABOUT PITTSBURGH (1-0): In addition to posting their biggest margin of victory since 1913, the Panthers outgained the Blue Hens 501-57 en route to their first shutout in nine years. However, not all the news was positive for Pittsburgh as receiver Tyler Boyd, who set school freshman records for receptions and receiving yards last fall, left in the second quarter after dislocating a finger on his left hand on a punt return. Boyd’s probable status for Friday means more of the offensive load could fall on sophomore quarterback Chad Voytik, who went 10-for-13 for 84 yards and two TDs in his first career start.
•ABOUT BOSTON COLLEGE (1-0): The Eagles were slightly less proficient on the ground (338 yards on 61 attempts) than the Panthers last week, but turned to Murphy as well as running backs Tyler Rouse (87 yards) and Myles Willis (57) to replace the production Williams usually accounted for last season. "We're not just one back anymore. All of us are coming and the quarterback's running, too,” Willis told the Boston Herald. Josh Bordner, who served as the backup quarterback over the last three seasons, fared well in his debut as a receiver, finishing with four catches for 81 yards and a touchdown.
•PREGAME NOTES: Pittsburgh was not dropped for a loss on any of its 56 rushes against Delaware and the Panthers did not give up a sack on 14 pass attempts.... Friday marks the first of four straight home games for Boston College, which will not leave the Massachusetts until it faces North Carolina State on Oct. 11.... Four of the last eight meetings were decided by four points or fewer and two of the last three went into overtime.
•KEY STATS
--PITTSBURGH is 33-17 UNDER (+14.3 Units) in road games against conference opponents since 1992.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 22.3, OPPONENT 25.8.
--PITTSBURGH is 12-3 UNDER (+8.7 Units) after a cover as a double digit favorite since 1992.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 23.2, OPPONENT 23.5.
--PITTSBURGH is 27-9 against the 1rst half line (+17.1 Units) in road games after outgaining opponent by 125 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 13.8, OPPONENT 12.6.
--BOSTON COLLEGE is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was BOSTON COLLEGE 28.4, OPPONENT 19.5.
--BOSTON COLLEGE is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in home games after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was BOSTON COLLEGE 30.6, OPPONENT 23.4.
--BOSTON COLLEGE is 43-22 UNDER (+18.8 Units) after playing a non-conference game since 1992.
The average score was BOSTON COLLEGE 23.3, OPPONENT 20.6.
--BOSTON COLLEGE is 40-22 UNDER (+15.8 Units) the 1rst half total after playing a non-conference game since 1992.
The average score was BOSTON COLLEGE 12.2, OPPONENT 10.3.
--BOSTON COLLEGE is 32-16 UNDER (+14.4 Units) the 1rst half total in the first month of the season since 1992.
The average score was BOSTON COLLEGE 12.6, OPPONENT 10.0.
•COACHING TRENDS
--PAUL CHRYST is 9-2 UNDER (+6.8 Units) the 1rst half total versus the 1rst half line in road games as the coach of PITTSBURGH.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 10.2, OPPONENT 12.3.
--PAUL CHRYST is 8-1 UNDER (+6.9 Units) the 1rst half total in road games after playing a game at home as the coach of PITTSBURGH.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 12.1, OPPONENT 10.8.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--BOSTON COLLEGE is 6-5 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH since 1992.
--BOSTON COLLEGE is 7-5 straight up against PITTSBURGH since 1992.
--6 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1992.
--PITTSBURGH is 6-5 versus the first half line when playing against BOSTON COLLEGE since 1992.
--6 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.
--Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.
--Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--PITT IS 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 Friday games.
--PITT is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win.
--Over is 4-1 in Pitt last 5 games in September.
--BC is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.
--BC is 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
--Under is 5-0 in BC last 5 Friday games.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the underdog covered the spread 55 times, while the favorite covered the spread 27 times. *EDGE against the spread =BOSTON COLLEGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 42 times, while the underdog won straight up 40 times. 54 games went over the total, while 48 games went under the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the underdog covered first half line 48 times, while the favorite covered first half line 32 times. *No EDGE. 50 games went under first half total, while 45 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.
•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play On - Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (BOSTON COLLEGE) - after allowing 225 or less total yards in their previous game against opponent after gaining 6.75 or more and allowing <=3.75 yards/play last game, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses.
(41-14 since 1992.) (74.5%, +25.6 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (23-32)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 6.6
The average score in these games was: Team 24, Opponent 25.3 (Average point differential = -1.3)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 23 (42.6% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (5-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (9-2).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (21-8).
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#305 WASHINGTON ST @ #306 NEVADA
TV: 10:30 PM EST, ESPN
Line: Washington St. -3.5, Total: 66.5
Passing should be the preferred method of moving the chains when Nevada hosts Washington State on Friday night. The teams combined for 835 yards through the air in their season openers last week, with Washington State quarterback Connor Halliday throwing for 532 yards and five touchdowns in a 41-38 loss to Rutgers, and Cody Fajardo leading the Wolf Pack to a 28-19 victory against visiting Southern Utah, tossing for 303 yards and a score. Each team features high-volume receivers as Jerico Richardson caught 13 passes for 177 yards in the win against Southern Utah and Vince Mayle hauled in 12 passes for 124 and a touchdown for the Cougars.
The Cougars were outscored 10 in the fourth quarter and surrendered the go-ahead touchdown with 3:24 left after River Cracraft muffed a punt at midfield while trying to secure a fair catch with about seven minutes to play. Cracraft, who caught eight passes for 83 yards and a touchdown in the opener, did not practice Monday because of an undisclosed injury. If he’s unable to play, look for senior Isiah Meyers to fill the void as he grabbed six passes for 94 yards and two touchdowns in the season opener.
•ABOUT WASHINGTON STATE (0-1): Cyrus Coen missed the season opener with an undisclosed injury but the senior linebacker and one of the Cougars’ leading tacklers the last two seasons was back at practice Monday and should be ready. In Coen’s absence, Washington State received solid contributions from Mitch Peterson, who totaled 16 tackles. Getting off to a better start will be key after the Cougars surrendered a 78-yard touchdown pass on the first play from scrimmage before they were dinged for 17 fourth-quarter points.
•ABOUT NEVADA (1-0): The Wolf Pack hope to start fast on offense after taking a 7-0 lead into halftime against Southern Utah before extending the lead to 28-6 early in the fourth quarter. Nevada has a solid ground game to lean on led by junior running back Don Jackson, who finished with 110 rushing yards and a touchdown last week. The Wolf Pack will also try to maintain their success on third down as they were 14-for-22 against Southern Utah.
•PREGAME NOTES: Washington State running backs coach Jim Mastro spent 11 seasons as an assistant at Nevada and linebacker coach Ken Wilson spent 19 seasons with the Wolf Pack. His son, Tyler, is Nevada’s long snapper.... Western Kentucky quarterback Brandon Doughty is the only player in the country who threw for more yards and touchdowns (569, six) than Halliday last weekend.... Fajardo needs 32 yards to join Colin Kaepernick and David Neill as the only Nevada quarterbacks to amass 10,000 for their career.
•KEY STATS
--WASHINGTON ST is 57-27 OVER (+27.3 Units) after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread since 1992.
The average score was WASHINGTON ST 26.6, OPPONENT 29.7.
--WASHINGTON ST is 6-0 against the 1rst half line (+6.0 Units) in road games after game with 50 or more pass attempts over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was WASHINGTON ST 17.8, OPPONENT 16.0.
--WASHINGTON ST is 8-1 against the 1rst half line (+6.9 Units) after being outrushed by 125 or more yards last game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was WASHINGTON ST 17.1, OPPONENT 16.8.
--WASHINGTON ST is 6-16 against the money line (-38.2 Units) after gaining 375 or more passing yards in last game since 1992.
The average score was WASHINGTON ST 26.2, OPPONENT 30.4.
--WASHINGTON ST is 6-15 against the money line (-11.2 Units) after allowing 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game since 1992.
The average score was WASHINGTON ST 21.0, OPPONENT 35.1.
--NEVADA is 6-1 against the money line (+7.5 Units) in September games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was NEVADA 36.6, OPPONENT 28.3.
--NEVADA is 8-2 against the money line (+8.5 Units) in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was NEVADA 35.6, OPPONENT 32.0.
•COACHING TRENDS
--MIKE LEACH is 36-19 OVER (+15.1 Units) after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was LEACH 38.1, OPPONENT 28.5.
--MIKE LEACH is 24-31 against the money line (-27.5 Units) after gaining 375 or more passing yards in last game in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was LEACH 34.4, OPPONENT 29.5.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--NEVADA is 1-1 against the spread versus WASHINGTON ST since 1992.
--WASHINGTON ST is 2-0 straight up against NEVADA since 1992.
--1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1992.
--NEVADA is 1-1 versus the first half line when playing against WASHINGTON ST since 1992.
--1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.
•RECENT TRENDS
--WSU is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 Friday games.
--WSU is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in September.
--Over is 5-0 in WSU last 5 versus MWC.
--NEV is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss.
--NEV is 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games following a SU win.
--Over is 6-1 in NEV last 7 versus Pac-12.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the underdog covered the spread 43 times, while the favorite covered the spread 15 times. *EDGE against the spread =NEVADA. In past games, the underdog won the game straight up 35 times, while the favorite won the game straight up 23 times. 6 games went over the total, while 5 games went under the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the underdog covered first half line 33 times, while the favorite covered first half line 24 times. *No EDGE. 7 games went under first half total, while 4 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.
•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play On - A home team versus the money line (NEVADA) - excellent passing team from last season - had a completion percentage of 62% or better, with an experienced QB returning as starter, in the first two weeks of the season.
(38-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (86.4%, +37.2 units. Rating = 5*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team underdog with a money line of: +113.6
The average score in these games was: Team 42.5, Opponent 17.7 (Average point differential = +24.8)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0, +3.2 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (27-5, +26.1 units).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (59-14, +21.2 units).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (73-22, +13 units).
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