STATSYSTEMS SPORTS NCAAF STAT/SHEETS
FRIDAY, AUGUST 29th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** NCAA College Football Week #1 Information *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every week during the 2014 NCAA College Football season we will analyze all of your daily football action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of StatSystems Sports. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
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NCAA College Football News and Notes - Week #1
•Buckeyes' Miller Has Shoulder Surgery: Ohio State quarterback Braxton Miller underwent surgery Tuesday to repair a torn labrum in his throwing shoulder. Coach Urban Meyer said the surgery, performed by Dr. James Andrews, was a success. Miller tweeted a picture of himself and Andrews after the procedure. Miller, a senior and two-time Big Ten Player of the Year, initially injured the shoulder during an Orange Bowl loss to Clemson and had surgery in February. He sat out spring practice to rehab and then returned to fall camp before reinjuring it during a routine throw on August 18th. After the second injury, Miller said he would redshirt this year and return to the Buckeyes in 2015. On Monday, he was named a team captain for the 2014 season. With Miller sidelined, redshirt freshman J.T. Barrett will take over at quarterback and start the season opener on Saturday against Navy in Baltimore.
•Oklahoma's Bell Ready To Contribute At Tight End: Even before Trevor Knight's performance against Alabama in the Sugar Bowl, Oklahoma quarterback Blake Bell thought about switching positions -- for the good of the team and his future. Saturday against Louisiana Tech, Bell will make his debut at tight end for the No. 4 Sooners. "We expect him to play at a high level," Oklahoma co-offensive coordinator Josh Heupel said. "He's been really good in the pass game like you would expect having played quarterback, understanding space; catches the ball extremely well. He plays as big as he is at that position, but he's done a really good job in the run game as well." Bell's biggest adjustment has been with blocking, but coaches have consistently praised Bell's improvement there. "With the more he's on the field and the more opportunities he gets, that will improve," Sooners coach Bob Stoops said. Oklahoma hasn't had much production out of its tight ends since Jermaine Gresham played for the Sooners in 2006-08. With virtually no skill-position starters returning outside of Knight, a big tight end target could be something Oklahoma needs, especially early.
"It'll back some defenses up," Bell said. "Last year you saw a lot of teams just packing the box and forcing us to pass. This year with a lot of the talent and speed you've got outside, it can change a bit." Bell's days at quarterback might not be completely done though. After insisting since the move that Bell was permanently a tight end, Oklahoma's coaches said this week that they'd given Bell practice reps at quarterback after backup Cody Thomas suffered a minor injury. Then Stoops said Monday that the "Belldozer" package, which the Sooners used often in red-zone and short-yardage situations in 2011-12 when Landry Jones was the starting quarterback, could be used to take some of the wear and tear off Knight. "There's a place for it," Stoops said. "How much or not, it would maybe depend on how successful we are with some of the other stuff we are doing." Bell was certainly successful in that spot when he did it as a backup for those two seasons. Bell scored 24 rushing touchdowns in 20 games while directing the situational package behind Jones.
Roster Report
WR K.J. Young, who redshirted last season, is expected to make his first start against Louisiana Tech, playing in the slot. Young stood out among young receivers during December's bowl preparation and kept up the momentum through camp.... Sophomore Ahmad Thomas is expected to make his first start after earning the free safety spot over another sophomore, Hatari Byrd.... The Sooners are expected to play several true freshmen in the opener, including RB Samaje Perine, FB Dimitri Flowers, WR Michiah Quick and defensive backs Steven Parker and Jordan Thomas.... LG Adam Shead, who missed the last three games of last season due to injury, earned back his spot, beating out Dionte Savage.
•No Peeking For Ducks In Opener Vs. FCS School: Oregon coach Mark Helfrich said his team is not peeking ahead to a home showdown against No. 8 Michigan State, despite the Ducks being a 50-point favorite in their season opener. It's a soft opening for Oregon, which plays Saturday against the South Dakota Coyotes, an FCS school that went 4-8 last season. "It's 100 percent South Dakota," Helfrich said of the game plan this week. The Ducks will take a big jump in competition when they host Michigan State on Sept. 6 in a game that could have College Football Playoff implications. Regardless of opponent, Oregon says it is just happy to be through with fall camp and have an opponent to prepare to face.
"We're pretty excited to get going," said junior quarterback Marcus Mariota, who begins the season as one of the frontrunners for the Heisman Trophy. "I know guys are tired of hitting each other. Now that we get into a game week, we will prepare like we have every year I have been here." The Ducks had a string of four straight BCS bowls snapped last year when they finished 11-2 with a win over Texas in the Alamo Bowl. Oregon is ranked No. 3 in the Associated Press poll, making them a prime contender to reach the new four-team playoff. "That is the No. 1 goal," Mariota said. "We want to be able to come out of the conference this year, because we haven't been able to do that the last couple years, and be a part of the national playoff picture."
"We are really motivated. This was one of the best fall camps I have been part of since I got here. We are excited and anxious to get out and play." Oregon lost starting left tackle Tyler Johnstone to a torn ACL earlier this month, and wide receiver Bralon Addison will miss at least half of the season with a torn ACL suffered in spring practice. However, the Ducks still return eight starters on offense. Oregon brings back five starters on defense, including All-American cornerback Ifo Ekpre-Olomu. "We've gotten some things straightened out and a few things we still need to do, but I am really comfortable with where we are at as a defense," linebacker Rodney Hardrick said.
Roster Report
LB Johnny Ragin III was declared immediately eligible by the NCAA after transferring from California. He had two tackles in eight games as a true freshman for the Bears.... CB Dominique Harrison, a junior college transfer, suffered a knee injury in fall camp. His status for the season is unknown because Oregon does not release injury information.... Tanner Carew will be Oregon's long snapper as a true freshman.... WR Charles Nelson, a true freshman, will play on offense and special teams.
•Baylor Eager To Play In New On-Campus Digs: The most popular photos and videos in Waco these days -- outside of those from the Ice Bucket Challenge -- are the ones taken inside Baylor's new McLane Family Stadium. And much like a person dousing themselves with ice-cold water, the Baylor football team isn't exactly certainly how it will react to the rush. But the Bears have a pretty good guess. Coach Art Briles has compiled the kind of talent entering his seventh season at Baylor that will pair nicely with the fancy new on-campus stadium. "We've got guys that when you put them on the field, and there's some energy, they can be a different step, different level," Briles said.
"I've been around it a long time and I know how fast looks when it's excited." At around 45,000 seats, Baylor's new stadium is quaint compared to some of the mammoth venues across the college football landscape. But the Bears are hoping it's not the size of the crowd in the fight but the size of the fight in the crowd. "It's our job to make that the most exciting stadium in the United States of America on game day," Briles said. "Our guys got to feed off of it." The first opponent to test that theory will be SMU, which finished 5-7 last season. The Mustangs don't figure to be much of a match for No. 10-ranked Baylor as the Bears have been tabbed a four-touchdown-plus favorite.
But Briles pointed out that the first game is a bit of a roll of the dice. That's partially because college programs don't have the same preseason luxury as the NFL or other sports. There's no real dress rehearsal for the Bears as they step on their new stage. "There's nothing to relate it to," Briles said. "In the NFL, you have preseason games. In high school, you have scrimmages. In college you play. It's showtime." At least the Bears know who some of the leading players will be. Quarterback Bryce Petty has been touted as a Heisman contender. His favorite target from a year ago, Antwan Goodley, is looking to improve on his already-high draft stock.
And while Baylor lost two quality running backs in Lache Seastrunk and Glasco Martin, Shock Linwood showed last season there's not much drop-off when he gets the ball. Maybe none. And the high-powered offense isn't the only unit getting rave reviews in the preseason. Baylor is convinced its defensive front seven is as formidable as any in college football. It will take a while before Baylor's mettle is seriously tested -- until a road game at Texas on Oct. 4. Until then, expect the Bears to do plenty of dancing in their new digs.
Roster Report
Starting wide-receiver Clay Fuller is out for the first month of the season with a broken clavicle. Fuller suffered the injury in practice in early August and was expected to be sidelined for six to eight weeks.
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Teams On Upset Alert - Week #1
Systems Analyst James Vogel
Each and every year during the NCAA College Football campaign we see upsets during the first week of the season. Here are five matchups to keep on upset alert during the opening week. “Enjoy, and until next week - as always the very best of luck” –James!
•Portland State Vikings @ Oregon State Beavers (-31)
If history is any indication, then Oregon State is in trouble in their opener. Last season, the Beavers lost to Eastern Washington 49-46. In 2011, they fell to Sacramento State 29-28. Portland State lost four games last season but did play Cal close (lost 37-30) and their biggest loss from 2013 was 28 points so even if they don't pull the upset, they could cover the spread.
Likelihood Of An Upset: Small
•Rice Owls @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-20.5)
With the exception of 2012, under Brian Kelly, the Irish have been bitten by the upset bug. In 2010 it was Navy and Tulsa. In 2011 it was USF. In 2013 it was Pitt. Notre Dame is in the midst of an internal investigation into academic misconduct and you have to wonder if their attention will be elsewhere when they face off with the defending Conference USA Champions.
Likelihood Of An Upset: Medium
•California Golden Bears @ Northwestern Wildcats (-10)
In 2013, California was flat out awful. Last year, Cal lost over 50 starters to injury, they broke in a new QB and they had a coaching change so they had to adjust to a change in schemes. On the flip side, Northwestern just found out that their top receiver, Christian Jones, suffered a season-ending knee injury. Both of these teams are coming off of very disappointing 2013 seasons and it was be an interesting game to watch.
Likelihood Of An Upset: Medium
•Utah State Aggies @ Tennessee Volunteers (-6.5)
The Volunteers lost every player on their offensive and defensive line. They also just named Justin Worley their starting quarterback, which seems like a disappointment based on his past performance. Can talent at RB and WR overcome the question-marks the Vols have? Another big factor in this game will be Utah State's star quarterback Chuckie Keeton, who will be returning from injury.
Likelihood Of An Upset: XL
•Youngstown State @ Illinois (-10)
Tim Beckman's era at Illinois has been a huge disappointment through two years. The Illini have gone 6-18 overall and 1-15 in Big Ten play. In Illinois only game against an FCS opponent in 2013, they won by just eight points. Youngstown State went 8-4 last season and isn't a team to be taken lightly. Remember 2012 when the Penguins went to Pitt and came away with a 31-17 victory?
Likelihood Of An Upset: Jumbo
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Final Four Consensus Picks
The first season of the four-team playoff in college football will keep things wide-open heading into January. We polled our stable of Expert Handicappers looking for their views on who will make the inaugural “Final Four,” as defending champion Florida State and Alabama are two of the front-runners to win the National Championship. However, the Seminoles and Crimson Tide weren’t the overwhelming favorites among the panel, as Pac-12 favorites Oregon and UCLA were selected by several of our Pro's to win it all.
Who will raise the AFCA National Championship trophy in January? A handful of StatSystems Sports handicappers give their opinion on who will win the title, starting with the defending champions from Tallahassee.
Florida State
•Vegas Insider Ryan Taylor - Their ACC schedule is very manageable as they get a young Clemson team at home in week #4 and FSU is off a bye. They must play Louisville on the road on a Thursday but get a bye prior to that game as well. The ‘Noles play Florida and Notre Dame but get both those games at home and the Seminoles have the stifling defense to contain both of those mediocre offenses. FSU has a confident leader in quarterback Jameis Winston and the best combination of offensive line and defensive line in the country. They could conceivably, with their hype, high preseason ranking, and Heisman trophy candidate, lose to Notre Dame and still garner a playoff spot.
Oregon
•Expert Handicapper Jude Ravo - With the Pac-12 playing nine-conference games plus a conference championship game, even a one-loss champion in the conference appears to be a safe bet for inclusion in the four-team playoff field. Oregon has failed as the conference favorite the past two seasons, but this is an elite program that gets most of its toughest games at home this season. If Oregon beats Michigan State early in the season, they would have a big trump card in comparisons with the potential Big Ten champion if the resumes are similar and Oregon could even make a strong case for inclusion as the Pac-12 champion with two losses in some scenarios if there are few undefeated teams nationwide. The toughest road game for Oregon is at UCLA this season and a loss in that game could potentially be avenged in the conference championship which could also provide a boost for the case for the Ducks.
Alabama
•Systems Analyst Larry Hertner - Defense and running back depth are enough for the Crimson Tide. Finding another game manager to replace A.J McCarron won't be that difficult especially given the weapons Alabama has. The last time the Crimson Tide ended a season with consecutive losses under Nick Saban was 2008. The following year they went undefeated and won the national championship.
UCLA
•Systems Analyst William Stillman - Quarterback Brett Hundley might win the Heisman. They have 18 returning starters and will have one of the top offenses in the country. But most importantly, the Bruins defense could be their strongest asset. Bringing back almost the entire defensive line, opponents will have their work cut out. Also, their schedule seems very nice this year, with three of their toughest games, Oregon, USC and Stanford...all at home. I believe Jim Mora will out-coach teams in the playoffs and win the National Championship.
2015 National Championship Odds
•Florida State 18/5
•Alabama 6/1
•Oregon 7/1
•Auburn 10/1
•Oklahoma 12/1
•Georgia 13/1
•UCLA 14/1
•Ohio State 20/1
•South Carolina 23/1
•LSU 25/1
•USC 28/1
•Michigan State 30/1
•Baylor 30/1
•Wisconsin 30/1
•Florida 35/1
•Ole Miss 45/1
•Michigan 50/1
•Stanford 65/1
•Notre Dame 75/1
•Clemson 80/1
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•Friday's Matchups
--Brigham Young lost its first road game the last four years and were favored in last two; Cougars have junior quarterback with 15 career starts- they're 8-12 as road favorites since 2008, were 0-3 last season. Dogs covered 12 of their last 16 games on road. Connecticut has new head coach, three QBs back from last year who all threw 125+ passes LY- since 2004, they're 19-4 versus spread (82.6%) as home underdogs. Underdogs covered 16 of the Huskies last 20 home games.
--Bowling Green-Western Kentucky haven't met since 2007; both clubs have new head coaches. Hilltoppers are on 3rd coach in three years. WKU is 9-4 as a home underdog since 2009; they covered 12 of last 14 tries as underdogs, but lost 7 starters on defense, have senior quarterback with eleven career starts. Falcons are 12-3 as road favorites (80.0%) since 2007; they have 7 starters back on defense, 3 on offensive line and junior quarterback with 13 starts.
--Colorado won eight of last 11 games versus Colorado State; underdogs are 10-6 versus spread in series, but Buffaloes last four series victories are all by 14+ points. In last season’s matchup, Colorado outgained State by 214 yards- they're 3-0 as favorites under MacIntyre, have sophomore quarterback with 7 starts. Rams have senior QB; he has 22 starts, led State to first bowl in five years in 2013 (won 48-45). CSU lost 4 starters on offensive line, is 6-7 as an underdog under McElwain.
--Tex-San Antonio is coached by Larry Coker, old Miami Hurricanes head coach; they are 7-5 as road underdogs last two years; this is only their 4th year as team. Roadrunners have 10 starters back on both sides of ball, but their quarterback has not started yet. Houston (-2) beat UTSA 59-28 in 2013; Cougars had +5 ratio in turnovers, yardage was even. Houston is 20-7 as home favorites (74.0%) since 2007, 6-4 under Levine- their sophomore quarterback started 11 games last season.
--Arizona (-10) pounded UNLV 58-13 last year, running ball for 397 yards, but RichRod has been complaining this summer about lack of quarterback. Wildcats have four starters back on offensive line to protect whoever new QB is- they're 5-6 as home favorites under Rodriguez. Rebels got to first bowl in 13 years in 2013; they've got 13 starters back, junior QB with 15 starts, 4 starters are back on OL- they are 6-2 as road dog (75.0%) last two years.
Gridiron Trends - Saturday
•FLA ATLANTIC is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was FLA ATLANTIC 21.1, OPPONENT 29.9.
•TROY is 31-11 OVER (+18.9 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.
The average score was TROY 23.4, OPPONENT 29.0.
•MARSHALL is 1-10 against the 1rst half line (-10.0 Units) in a road game where the first half total is between 28.5 and 31.5 since 1992.
The average score was MARSHALL 11.5, OPPONENT 21.7.
•ARKANSAS is 16-30 against the 1rst half line (-17.0 Units) in road games in the first half of the season since 1992.
The average score was ARKANSAS 9.4, OPPONENT 14.9.
•W VIRGINIA is 14-4 OVER (+9.6 Units) the 1rst half total in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was W VIRGINIA 19.2, OPPONENT 20.4.
•MARK RICHT is 31-17 UNDER (+12.3 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points as the coach of GEORGIA.
The average score was RICHT 27.8, OPPONENT 19.6.
Situational Analysis of the Week
•Play On - Home favorites versus the money line (HOUSTON) - good team from last season - outscored opponents by 7 or more points/game, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning, in the first month of the season.
(72-6 since 1992.) (92.3%, +56.2 units. Rating = 5*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -264.2
The average score in these games was: Team 40.8, Opponent 15.6 (Average point differential = +25.2)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0, +0 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (5-0, +5 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (20-0, +20 units).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (33-2, +27.3 units).
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w-thumbs!^
