StatSystemsSports
Inside The Huddle Friday
NFL Preseason Betting News And Notes - Week #3
•Increased Flags Has Created Unheard Of Precedent For Bookmakers: Through two weeks of the National Football League preseason we have seen an average of 23.7 penalties per game, which is nearly double the amount we've seen last season (12.7 penalties). That has caused bookmakers to have to adjust rather quickly to the new reality of the NFL. There has been 229 flags thrown on the defense through two weeks that has resulted in first downs for the offense per the New Orleans Times-Picayune. With an increase in opportunities for offenses, an increase of points scored is to be expected and books know that. For the first time in recent memory all the NFL action this week is working off a total that is 40.0 or higher.
The first week of preseason action saw teams score an average of 36 points per game while going over in just three of the 16 confrontations. In contrast, the second week of preseason action saw the Over/Under go 10-6 (62.5%) with an average of 47.5 points per game. The total for the Thursday night matchup featuring the Pittsburgh Steelers and Philadelphia Eagles is currently 48.5. This trend may not be ending anytime soon either as NFL Vice President of Officiating Dean Blandino has said "We're not going to change how we're calling the games once the regular season starts."
•Rams Decide To Let Pead Go: In a bit of a surprise, the Rams listed running back and special teams player Isaiah Pead as waived/injured on Wednesday. Pead, a second-round draft choice (50th overall) in 2012, suffered a torn ACL to his left knee while returning a first-quarter kickoff Saturday in the team’s 21-7 loss to the visiting Green Bay Packers. At the end of a 33-yard return, it appeared Pead’s foot got caught in the turf while he attempted to make a jump-cut. There was no contact on the play. The Rams’ decision to put Pead on waivers allows any other team in the league 24 hours to claim the third-year pro. But that’s not likely given his injury status and 2014 salary ($757,100).
The 5-foot-10, 197-pound Pead starred at the University of Cincinnati, earning the Big East offensive player of the year award as a Bearcats senior. But he never reached that level in St. Louis. In two seasons with the Rams, he made one start and played in 25 games, rushing for 75 yards on 17 carries while catching 14 passes for 94 yards. In addition, he returned 14 kickoffs for 350 yards. Pead was suspended for last season’s opener for violating the NFL’s policy on substance abuse but came on last season to earn a spot as a core special teamer.
•Practice Squads Will Expand: The National Football League and the NFL Players Association have agreed to expand practice squads from eight to 10 players for the 2014 and 2015 seasons. That could be significant for a young Rams squad that appears to be deeper than it has been in past seasons. “It gives us an opportunity to develop two additional players," head coach Jeff Fisher said. “And everybody else, too. It adds players to the pool, the developmental pool, which will be good. Gives us some flexibility as far as decisions are concerned." All 32 teams in the NFL will be required to cut down to a 53-man roster on August 30th. Released players will go through waivers and may be claimed by any NFL squad. Following the waiver period, teams will be able to sign unsigned players to their practice squads. The NFL cutdown from 90 to 75 players is Tuesday, Aug. 26.
•Ball On Track For Season Opener: Montee Ball participated in practice Wednesday in a limited capacity, continuing to regain strength after an appendectomy. He won't play Saturday, but his progress suggests he's on track for the season opener. He won't know until he takes that first hit. "There was no hesitation to return because there was no pain," said Ball, who is going to experiment with playing lighter after losing weight during this process. "I am here to play football, not sit on the sideline." That's where receiver Emmanuel Sanders spent his time. He is proceeding cautiously with a right quadriceps injury.
He worked with the trainer Wednesday and is unlikely to start versus the Houston Texans on Saturday. He's looking at the big picture, and doesn't want to create a nagging injury. Top draft pick Jadeveon Clowney of the Texans didn't finish practice, leaving with a half-hour remaining with an undisclosed injury. His helmet collided with a Broncos offensive player before he exited. The Texans' linebacker watched the rest of practice from a tent, removing his shoulder pads. He has been a limited participant in the preseason as he recovers from sports hernia surgery performed in June.
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#253 JACKSONVILLE @ #254 DETROIT
Line: Lions -3, Total: 44.5
Rookie Blake Bortles will continue his push for Jacksonville's starting quarterback spot when the Jaguars visit the Detroit Lions in Week #3 of preseason action. Jacksonville coach Gus Bradley had planned to take things slowly with Bortles, the third overall pick in May's draft, by using veteran Chad Henne as a bridge until the Central Florida product is ready. And that still seems like the plan but Bortles has played so well in the preseason that he is pushing to play sooner rather than later.
The Jaguars fell in Chicago last week, 20-19, due to two late touchdowns by the Bears but Bortles excelled when he was in the game, finishing up 11-of-17 for 160 yards. Henne started under center and Jacksonville got field goals of 49 and 25 yards from Josh Scobee, while a fumble recovery on a kickoff led to the 6-yard scoring catch by Marqise Lee for a 13-0 lead after one quarter. Henne finished the game 12-for-17 for 130 yards, while Bortles came in led the Jags to a 43-yard Scobee field goal on his first drive to give the team a 16-7 lead at the break.
By Monday Bortles got a handful of reps with the first-team offense in practice and he is scheduled to get some work with the starters in Detroit. "As I was sitting back there I thought it was really good for (Blake) to go against the ones like that to get a feel for the speed, to get a feel for the rush," Bradley said. "Sitting back there and watching it, I just felt like that was good for him."
The Lions are also coming off a late-game setback last week in Oakland when Matt McGloin's 19-yard touchdown pass to Brice Butler with six seconds left lifted the Raiders to a 27-26 win. Matthew Stafford completed 9-of-10 passes for 88 yards and two touchdowns for Detroit. George Winn added a touchdown on the ground and Golden Tate caught three passes for 41 yards and a score.
The Lions and Jaguars will be squaring off for only the second time in preseason action with the lone previous meeting taking place in 1995 when Detroit defeated Jacksonville 19-3 at the Pontiac Silverdome. "As you all well know, the third week of the preseason, typically most teams will treat it as if they're preparing for a game in the regular season," Lions coach Jim Caldwell said. "You won't be able to do everything, because some of the rules dictate otherwise, but you can get as close as you possibly can. It is extremely important, because of the fact."
•KEY STAT: JACKSONVILLE is 14-1 ATS (+12.9 Units) after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better since 1993.
The average score was JACKSONVILLE 28.2, OPPONENT 15.8.
StatSystemsSports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the favorite covered the spread 22 times, while the underdog covered the spread 18 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 26 times, while the underdog won straight up 15 times. 2 games went over the total, while 2 games went under the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the favorite covered first half line 48 times, while the underdog covered first half line 35 times. *No EDGE. 4 games went under first half total, while 3 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.
•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play Over - Home teams against the 1rst half total (DETROIT) - in non-conference games, after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better against opponent after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers.
(24-7 over the last 10 seasons.) (77.4%, +16.3 units. Rating = 2*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 19.1
The average first half score in these games was: Team 14.3, Opponent 10.6 (Total first half points scored = 25)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (5-3).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (13-6).
Since 1993 the situation's record is: (30-24).
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#255 CAROLINA @ #256 NEW ENGLAND
Line: Patriots -5.5, Total: 45.5
After two straight weeks of joint practice sessions with their preseason opponent in advance of the game, the New England Patriots will go it alone this week in preparation for the all-important third preseason game with Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers. Tom Brady was 8-of-10 for 81 yards with a touchdown and an interception in his preseason debut last week as New England defeated the Philadelphia Eagles, 42-35.
Second-round draft choice Jimmy Garoppolo completed 6-of-12 passes for 72 yards and a pair of scores in relief of Brady, while Kenbrell Thompkins caught three passes for 32 yards and a touchdown for the Patriots. "(We'll) try to build off what we did and move into some situational stuff for Carolina, where we would normally be for a regular season work week," New England coach Bill Belichick said. "We're still working on a lot of things that we just need to work on."
Newton also took the field for the first time in 2014 last week and finished 4-of-9 for 65 yards as Carolina beat the Kansas City Chiefs, 28-16, in the Tar Heel State. Newton had left ankle surgery in March and was held out of his team's first exhibition game against Buffalo the prior week. Jonathan Stewart carried the ball four times for 26 yards and two touchdowns, while first-round rookie wideout Kelvin Benjamin caught two passes for 41 yards for the Panthers.
The most famous Patriots and Panthers meeting came in Super Bowl XXXVIII, when New England came out on top, 32-29. Last season, the clubs clashed on "Monday Night Football" in Carolina, with the Panthers winning 24-20.
•KEY STAT: NEW ENGLAND is 13-0 against the 1rst half line (+13.0 Units) after allowing 30 points or more last game since 1993.
The average score was NEW ENGLAND 12.7, OPPONENT 5.7.
StatSystemsSports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the favorite covered the spread 10 times, while the underdog covered the spread 8 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 16 times, while the underdog won straight up 3 times. 2 games went over the total, while 1 games went under the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the favorite covered first half line 28 times, while the underdog covered first half line 22 times. *No EDGE. 3 games went over first half total, while 0 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.
•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play Against - Road underdogs of 2 to 6 points versus the first half line (CAROLINA) - off a non-conference game, after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers against opponent after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better.
(46-21 over the last 10 seasons.) (68.7%, +22.9 units. Rating = 2*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 2.7
The average first half score in these games was: Team 14, Opponent 7.8 (Average first half point differential = +6.2)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (11-4).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (24-9).
Since 1993 the situation's record is: (104-81).
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#257 NY GIANTS @ #258 NY JETS
Line: Giants -1, Total: 43
The annual Empire State preseason battle will take place in the Garden State as usual when the New York Jets play the host against their co-tenants at MetLife Stadium, the New York Giants. This year's battle, the 46th consecutive preseason that the two teams have squared off, takes on a little added significance because both will enter unbeaten. The Giants improved to 3-0 in exhibition play when Ryan Nassib's 4-yard touchdown pass to Corey Washington with 55 seconds left capped a ferocious fourth-quarter comeback as Big Blue pulled out a 27-26 victory over the Indianapolis Colts.
The Giants put up 27 unanswered points in the final 10 1/2 minutes to erase a 26-0 deficit and stay unbeaten this preseason, with both Nassib and fellow backup quarterback Curtis Painter throwing for touchdowns during the rally. Nassib finished 11-of-15 for 158 yards to help offset another rough effort from starter Eli Manning, who hit on just 1-of-7 throws for six yards on four stalled New York possessions. "He was gutsy, he was competitive," Giants coach Tom Coughlin said of Nassib. "The way he hung in there, he moved a little bit in the pocket, which is something that normally is not associated with us. And so the threat of him coming out of there, I think, helped us. And then when he did step up in the pocket, he made some nice plays down the field."
The Jets, meanwhile, improved to 2-0 last week when Clyde Gates caught a 17- yard score from Michael Vick early in the fourth quarter as Gang Green grabbed a 25-17 win over the Cincinnati Bengals. Gates' score put the Jets on top 23-17 1 1/2 minutes into the fourth quarter, and IK Enemkpali blocked a Kevin Huber punt with the ball going out of the end zone to give the Jets a safety on Cincinnati's ensuing possession. Geno Smith played the first half of the game under center for the Jets and went 10-of-13 for 98 yards with an interception.
He also had four carries for 20 yards and a score, leading the team to two touchdowns and a field goal during his time under center. "(It's) coming together fine," Smith said when talking about his team. "We've done some good things. I really like the balance that we have showcased. We have to get better in the passing game. We have to be more precise, and a lot sharper than we have been, and then continue to fine tune things, the small things, the details, and I think we'll be fine."
The Jets lead their preseason series with the Giants, which began in 1969, 24-20-1. Last year, the Jets beat the Giants in overtime, 24-21.
StatSystemsSports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the underdog covered the spread 13 times, while the favorite covered the spread 9 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 12 times, while the underdog won straight up 11 times. 5 games went under the total, while 2 games went over the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the underdog covered first half line 20 times, while the favorite covered first half line 13 times. *No EDGE. 6 games went under first half total, while 3 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.
•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play Over - Any team versus the 1rst half total (NY JETS) - after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game against opponent after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games.
(32-11 over the last 10 seasons.) (74.4%, +19.9 units. Rating = 2*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 19.3
The average first half score in these games was: Team 12.3, Opponent 11.7 (Total first half points scored = 24)
The situation's record this season is: (0-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (9-4).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (17-4).
Since 1993 the situation's record is: (58-29).
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#259 OAKLAND @ #260 GREEN BAY
Line: Pacers -7, Total: 44
The Green Bay Packers return home to Lambeau Field for a rare preseason matchup with the Oakland Raiders. The Packers, who haven't met Oakland in exhibition play since 2001, evened their practice-game record at 1-1 last week when Aaron Rodgers completed 11- of-13 passes for 128 yards and a touchdown in his 2014 preseason debut as Green Bay defeated the St. Louis Rams, 21-7. Rodgers, along with running back Eddie Lacy and wide receiver Jordy Nelson, were healthy scratches in Green Bay's first preseason game.
Lacy returned to carry the ball five times for 25 yards and added two receptions for 22 yards, while Nelson had a touchdown catch called back due to a penalty. "We practiced our up-tempo offense and to be able to come out and execute it at this stage of the game is great," Lacy said. "It will be tough for opponents to keep up and be able to beat us." Randall Cobb caught three passes for 34 yards and a touchdown and tight end Andrew Quarless had four receptions for 58 yards in the triumph.
The Raiders also rebounded last week when Matt McGloin's 19-yard touchdown pass to Brice Butler with six seconds left lifted Oakland over the Detroit Lions 27-26. Darren McFadden had eight rushes for 27 yards and a score for the Raiders, while Matt Schaub went 8-for-13 with an interception in two series before being removed. McGloin was 7-for-15 passing for 114 yards and Butler finished with four catches for 74 yards. "There are a lot of things we have to learn from," said Oakland head coach Dennis Allen, "but it's a lot better to do that after a win."
Oakland rookie quarterback Derek Carr suffered a concussion during the game, leaving with under six minutes left after taking a hard shot from Detroit's Larry Webster on a pass attempt. The 2014 second-round pick played well prior to the injury, engineering three scoring drives and completing 9-of-16 passes for 109 yards and a touchdown. Carr, currently second on the Raiders' depth chart behind veteran Matt Schaub, will have to pass the league's concussion protocol in order to play this week.
This will be the ninth time the Packers have played the Raiders during the preseason. It will be the third time in nine contests that the two clubs have met at Lambeau Field. Three contests have taken place in Oakland, and one each in Los Angeles, Canton, Ohio and Milwaukee.
•KEY STAT: GREEN BAY is 15-5 OVER (+9.5 Units) the 1rst half total as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points versus the first half line since 1993.
The average score was GREEN BAY 12.2, OPPONENT 9.9.
StatSystemsSports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the underdog covered the spread 7 times, while the favorite covered the spread 4 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 9 times, while the underdog won straight up 2 times. 2 games went over the total, while 1 games went under the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the underdog covered first half line 13 times, while the favorite covered first half line 12 times. *No EDGE. 5 games went under first half total, while 3 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.
•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play Over - Road teams versus the 1rst half total (OAKLAND) - after playing a game at home against opponent after a 2 game road trip, after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread.
(24-4 over the last 5 seasons.) (85.7%, +19.6 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 19.1
The average first half score in these games was: Team 11.8, Opponent 13 (Total first half points scored = 24.8)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (11-2).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (40-18).
Since 1993 the situation's record is: (76-37).
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#261 CHICAGO @ #262 SEATTLE
Line: Seahawks -7, Total: 45
The Chicago Bears will play their first of two road preseason contests in just under a week's time when they travel to the Pacific Northwest to take on the defending Super Bowl Champion Seattle Seahawks (10:00 PM EST) on Friday. The Bears improved to 2-0 in the preseason last week when Senorise Perry's 5- yard touchdown run with 50 seconds left lifted Chicago to a hard-fought 20-19 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Ka'Deem Carey scored on a 1-yard run earlier in the fourth quarter and Brandon Marshall caught a 4-yard score from Jay Cutler in the second quarter for the Bears, who opened the preseason with a win against the Philadelphia Eagles. Cutler finished 7-for-9 for 75 yards during his time on the field while Jordan Palmer guided the Bears on their two fourth quarter scoring drives for the win.
The Seahawks, meanwhile, looked as dominant as ever last week as Russell Wilson ran for a pair of touchdowns during Seattle's 41-14 drubbing of the San Diego Chargers. Wilson completed 11-of-13 passes for 121 yards and added 31 yards rushing on four carries for Seattle. Robert Turbin carried the ball 12 times for 81 yards and a score and Percy Harvin caught four passes for 31 yards in the triumph.
The Bears and Seahawks will be meeting for the fourth time in the preseason with all four meetings coming in the Pacific Northwest. Seattle owns a 2-1 advantage with Chicago's lone win coming in 1976, the Seahawks' inaugural NFL season.
•KEY STATS: SEATTLE is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after a win by 21 or more points since 1993.
The average score was SEATTLE 25.5, OPPONENT 16.5.
--SEATTLE is 10-1 against the 1rst half line (+8.9 Units) in home games after allowing 14 points or less last game since 1993.
The average score was SEATTLE 15.5, OPPONENT 6.3.
StatSystemsSports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the favorite covered the spread 3 times, while the underdog covered the spread 1 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 4 times, while the underdog won straight up 0 times. 0 games went over the total, while 0 games went under the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the favorite covered first half line 13 times, while the underdog covered first half line 8 times. *No EDGE. 2 games went over first half total, while 0 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.
•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play On - Home favorites of 2 to 6 points versus the first half line (SEATTLE) - after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt last game against opponent after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins.
(31-10 over the last 10 seasons.) (75.6%, +20.7 units. Rating = 2*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 2.7
The average first half score in these games was: Team 13.8, Opponent 6.4 (Average first half point differential = +7.4)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (8-4).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (16-5).
Since 1993 the situation's record is: (71-40).
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