STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT
FRIDAY, JULY 25th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Friday, 7/25/14 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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MLB Betting News and Notes - Week #17
•Mariners Trade For Twins' Morales: The Seattle Mariners acquired first baseman/designated hitter Kendrys Morales from the Minnesota Twins on Thursday in exchange for right-handed relief pitcher Stephen Pryor. Morales, 31, is scheduled to report to the Mariners on Friday, at which time a 25-man roster move will be made. Morales rejoins Seattle after a brief stint with the Twins. Morales, who signed as a free agent with Minnesota on June 8, appeared in 39 games and batted .234 with 11 doubles, one home run and 18 RBIs. He had a 12-game hitting streak snapped on Wednesday when he went 0-for-4 in the Twins' 3-1 win over the Cleveland Indians.
In 156 games with the Mariners last season, Morales led the team in batting average (.277), hits (167), doubles (34), RBIs (80), multi-hit games (46) and extra-base hits (57). The 23 home runs established a club record for a switch-hitter. The Cuban native is a career .277 hitter with 141 doubles, 103 home runs and 363 RBIs in 659 games with the Angels (2006-2012), Mariners (2013) and Twins (2014). Pryor, 25, made one appearance for the Mariners this season after opening the season on the disabled list due to surgery to repair right latissimus dorsi muscle. He appeared in 34 games with the Mariners from 2012-14, recording a 2.81 ERA. He was originally selected by the Mariners in the fifth round of the 2010 draft out of Tennessee Tech University.
•Phillies Considering Releasing Ryan Howard: A few years ago Ryan Howard was one of the most feared hitters in baseball, and now he’s on the verge of being out of the game altogether. On Wednesday a report surfaced claiming that the Philadelphia Phillies are considering paying the rest of Howard’s contract and releasing him after the season. Howard is owed $25 million this season and a total of $60 million over the next two seasons, but he has been so bad over the past few years that he’s basically wasting a roster spot. Howard is a three-time All-Star, won the National League Rookie of the Year in 2005 and was the 2006 National League MVP. But since 2011 he has dealt with serious injury problems and has been awful when healthy.
In the past three seasons, Howard has played in just 248 of a possible 486 games. He has posted a .236 batting average, .306 on-base percentage and a woeful .724 OPS. In 914 at-bats he has struck out an incredible 312 times, and his WAR has been a ridiculously bad -0.8. The 34-year-old is clearly not the player he once was, and it has gotten so bad that he has even been benched on an awful team. After a loss on Wednesday, the Phillies are 43-58 and given the age of their roster, they are not going to compete any time soon. They are in the process of trying to unload some of their bigger contracts, but there are absolutely no takers for Howard, and with good reason.
While Cliff Lee and Jonathan Papelbon could actually be moved before next week’s trade deadline, Howard isn’t going anywhere. The Phillies are going to have to pay him anyway and they clearly have no use for him on the roster anymore. Releasing him and eating his massive contract will hurt, but it’s probably the right move for the future of the franchise. No one should be shocked if this is Howard’s final season in Philadelphia.
•Callaspo Could Be Activated From DL By Sunday: Second baseman Alberto Callaspo is getting closer to coming off the disabled list, with A’s manager Bob Melvin suggesting he might be activated as early as Sunday. Recovering from a strained right hamstring, Callaspo took batting practice and fielded grounders before Wednesday’s game against the Houston Astros, as did first baseman Kyle Blanks, who is covering from a torn calf muscle. “He’ll probably do a couple more days of this and maybe we’ll send him out somewhere” on a rehab assignment, Melvin said of Callaspo. “There’s a chance he’ll be ready by Sunday.”
Callaspo is hitting .234 with three home runs and 31 RBI. Not eye-popping numbers, but Melvin would like to have Callaspo at his disposal as a regular option at second base, or as a switch-hitting option off the bench. When he does return, the A’s have a decision to make as far as who to send out to clear a roster spot. Eric Sogard’s defensive ability alone makes him an asset, but can the A’s afford to keep him, Callaspo and Nick Punto on the roster at the same time? It’s possible that with Callaspo available as a right-handed hitting first base option, Nate Freiman could be the odd man out. That decision will eventually play itself out. Eventually, the A’s hope to get Blanks back too. Melvin said he’s a little bit behind Callaspo in his recovery, but when Blanks is able to run full speed with no discomfort, he figures to go out on a minor league rehab assignment.
Thursday's MLB Roundup
If the Rays are inclined, they can make the biggest deal before next Thursday's non-waiver trading deadline by sending left-hander David Price to another contender. The St. Louis Cardinals are reportedly pushing to be at the front of the line if indeed the team parts with Price. Price is eligible for arbitration for the final time at the end of this season --- the 2012 American League Cy Young Award winner could easily wind up with a $20 million salary for 2015 through the process -- and free agency at the end of next season. The Rays would get maximum value if they traded Prince this week, when a team would have him for the rest of this season and all of next.
The Rays are 4 1/2 games out in the AL wildcard race and 7 1/2 games back in the AL East standings after winning 25 of their last 36 games. What president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman is weighing is whether to keep Price and go for what would be the franchise's first World Series title or trade him and get enough in return to set themselves up for a number of future runs at a championship. While Friedman figures it out, here are five players who should be changing uniforms before the non-waiver deadline next Thursday:
•Bartolo Colon, RHP, Mets --- Colon is signed through next season and is still a very effective starting pitcher despite 41 years old and quite rotund However, the rebuilding Mets could use the young talent he could fetch in a trade. Colon is 9-8 with a 4.03 ERA and a fine 100/19 strikeout-walk ratio in 134 innings. He surely impressed scouts Wednesday when he retired the first 20 batters he faced in his start at Seattle.
•Jorge De La Rosa, LHP, Rockies --- Eligible for free agency at the end of the season, De La Rosa would make a nice rental starter for a contender. The 33-year-old is 11-6 with a 4.19 ERA in 21 starts, including an impressive 6-2 with a 3.49 ERA in 10 home starts in the thin air of Denver. He also opened scouts' eyes Wednesday by holding the National League-East leading Washington Nationals to two runs in 7 1/3 innings while out striking out 11.
•Jonathan Papelbon, RHP, Phillies --- Interest has been surprisingly light in a closer who has converted 23 of 26 save opportunities with a 1.96 ERA in 41 games. Furthermore, he has 309 saves in his 10-year career. However, Papelbon's personality rubs many people raw. He has been so vocal about wanting out of Philadelphia that the Phillies will absorb almost all of the remaining $31 million left on his contract to get rid of him.
•Alexei Ramirez, SS, White Sox --- Despite appearing in his first All-Star Game last week and hitting .280 with eight home runs and 17 stolen bases in 101 games, Ramirez is a goner in Chicago. He is 32, becomes a free agent at the end of the season and the White Sox have a ready-made replacement at Triple-A Charlotte in Carlos Sanchez.
•Kurt Suzuki, C, Twins --- Suzuki has been a great bargain for Minnesota after being signed to a one-year, $2.75-million contact as a free agent in the offseason as he has hit .312 in 84 games. He is outstanding handler of pitchers and a clubhouse favorite. However, Suzuki is also 30 and the foundering Twins need to find out if rookie Josmil Pinto is the long-term answer at catcher.
Around The League
-- Dodgers manager Don Mattingly has been trying to fit four starting outfielders into three spots for more than a year and the situation is ready to come to a head --- and become a potential distraction in the midst of a tight NL West race with the San Francisco Giants. Mattingly believes his best alignment is Andre Ethier in left field, Yasiel Puig in center fielder and Matt Kemp in right field. Nothing wrong with that on the surface. Beneath the surface, though, it is going to cause plenty of problems.
Kemp still believes he can be a Gold Glove center fielder and says if he has to play on a corner then he wants it to be left field. The gifted Puig would easily make the transition from right field to center field but he is a bone-breaking collision waiting to happen every time he chases a fly ball because of his propensity to not call off the other outfielders. Then there is the case of Carl Crawford winding up as a $20.25-million fourth outfielder. He won't be happy about that.
-- The Colorado Rockies are on their way to not only a fifth consecutive losing season but oblivion as they are 41-60, last in the NL West with this yeas NL batting leader (Troy Tulowitzki) and last year's NL batting champion (Michael Cuddyer) on the disabled list. That's only part of the Rockies' problems. Their unusual --- to be kind --- front office structure just doesn't work. General manager Dan O'Dowd is a figurehead while assistant GM Bill Geivett runs the major league operation.
Geivett is also the only executive in the big leagues with an office in his team's clubhouse, adjoining manager Walt Weiss' office at Coos Field. That is far too close for comfort for Weiss, who is chafing at the arrangement. Owner Dick Monfort has always been loyal to a fault to his employees and it's long past time for him to put sentimentality on the shelf and blow the operation up.
-- The Hall of Fame inductions ceremonies are this weekend in Cooperstown and a star-studded cast will receive baseball's ultimate honor -- Tom Glavine, Greg Maddux, Frank Thomas, Bobby Cox, Tony La Russa and Joe Torre. That is truly a six pack of greatness.
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Betting Notes - Friday
National League
•Cardinals-Cubs - 4:05 PM
--Kelly is 2-1, 3.55 in five starts this season.
--Wood is 0-3, 9.72 in his last three starts.
--St Louis lost its last three games.
--Cubs lost seven of their last eight games.
--Eight of last ten games at Wrigley Field went over total.
•Diamondbacks-Phillies - 7:05 PM
--Miley is 3-0, 1.74 in his last three starts.
--Kendrick is 1-2, 9.92 in his last three starts.
--Arizona lost seven of its last ten road games.
--Phillies lost seven of their last nine games.
--Last four Kendrick starts went over the total.
•Nationals-Reds - 7:10 PM
--Roark is 6-2, 2.45 in his last eight starts.
--Simon is 2-1, 2.43 in his last five starts.
--Washington won six of its last eight games.
--Reds are off 0-6 road trip; they're 7-2 in last nine home games.
--Last six Washington road games went over the total.
•Padres-Braves - 7:35 PM
--Hahn is 5-1, 1.70 in his last six starts.
--Wood is 2-1, 2.87 in his last five starts.
--San Diego won four of its last five games.
--Braves won nine of their last thirteen home games.
--13 of last 17 San Diego road games stayed under.
•Mets-Brewers - 8:10 PM
--Wheeler is 1-0, 1.42 in his last four starts.
--Brewers lost last five Gallardo starts (0-1, 7.33 in last four).
--Mets lost 10 of their last 14 road games.
--Milwaukee won its last five home games.
--Four of Mets' last five road games stayed under.
•Pirates-Rockies - 8:40 PM
--Morton is 1-0, 2.77 in his last four starts.
--Anderson is 0-3, 5.33 in five starts this season.
--Pittsburgh won five of its last six games.
--Rockies lost seven of their last eight games.
--Five of last six Pittsburgh road games went over.
•Dodgers-Giants - 10:15 PM
--Greinke is 2-3, 4.05 in his last five starts.
--Lincecum is 4-1, 0.96 in his last five starts; he had a save Tuesday.
--Dodgers lost six of their last eight road games.
--Giants won six of their last eight games.
--Six of last eight Dodger games stayed under total.
American League
•Blue Jays-Yankees - 7:05 PM
--Buehrle is 0-5, 4.24 in his last eight starts.
--Kuroda is 0-0, 1.98 in his last couple starts.
--Blue Jays won five of last six games, but are 3-13 in last 16 road games.
--New York won seven of its last nine games.
--Under is 11-2-2 in last fifteen Yankees home games.
•Red Sox-Rays - 7:10 PM
--Boston won last seven Lester starts (4-0, 1.70).
--Price is 5-0, 1.13 in his last five starts.
--Boston won eight of its last twelve games.
--Tampa Bay won its last seven games.
--Six of last eight Boston road games went over total.
•Athletics-Rangers - 8:05 PM
--Hammel is 0-2, 10.29 in two starts for Oakland.
--Williams was 1-4, 6.04 in 26 relief stints for Houston this year; he is 43-51 in his MLB career, making 117 career starts (9-10, 4.57 in 25 starts LY).
--Oakland won five of its last seven games.
--Rangers lost 28 of their last 34 games.
--Six of last eight A's games went over the total.
•White Sox-Twins - 8:10 PM
--Danks is 2-1, 5.30 in his last six starts.
--Correia is 1-4, 4.03 in his last five starts.
--White Sox lost three of their last five games.
--Minnesota lost five of its last seven games.
--12 of last 16 White Sox games stayed under.
•Indians-Royals - 8:10 PM
--Tomlin is 0-2, 6.88 in his last three starts.
--Ventura is 1-3, 4.71 in his last five starts.
--Cleveland lost four of its last five games.
--Kansas City won its last three games.
--Five of last six Indian games stayed under total.
•Tigers-Angels - 10:05 PM
--Smyly is 3-4, 4.02 in his last seven starts.
--Skaggs is 1-4, 5.93 in his last seven starts.
--Detroit won four of its last five games.
--Angels lost three of their last four games.
--Seven of last ten Angel games stayed under total.
•Orioles-Mariners - 10:10 PM
--Gausman is 1-2, 5.59 in his last four starts.
--Hernandez is 3-0, 1.60 in his last six starts.
--Orioles won 11 of their last 16 road games.
--Seattle lost six of its last eight games.
--12 of last 14 Seattle home games stayed under.
Interleague
•Marlins-Astros - 8:10 PM
--Hand is 1-2, 5.34 in six starts this season.
--Keuchel is 1-3, 6.67 in his last five starts.
--Miami won four of its last five games.
--Astros lost five of last six home games.
--Over is 13-7 in last 20 Houston games.
•Teams' Record When This Starting Pitcher Starts
-- Kelly 3-2; Wood 10-10
-- Miley 11-10; Kendrick 8-11
-- Roark 10-9; Simon 15-4
-- Hahn 5-2; Wood 5-7
-- Wheeler 8-12; Gallardo 9-11
-- Morton 10-10; Anderson 6-4
-- Greinke 11-9; Lincecum 13-7
-- Buehrle 14-6; Kuroda 9-11
-- Lester 13-7; Price 13-8
-- Hammel 10-7/0-2; Williams 0-0
-- Danks 9-11; Correia 6-14
-- Tomlin 5-8; Ventura 8-10
-- Smyly 6-10; Skaggs 9-6
-- Gausman 5-3; Hernandez 15-6
-- Hand 2-4; Keuchel 10-8
•Incredible Stat of the Day
Boston’s Jon Lester is a spot-less 7-0 with a 0.85 earned-run average during his last seven teams starts, and also 5-0 with a 0.75 ERA his last five team starts during July. Lester (10-7, 2.50) has had to endure ongoing trade rumors with the defending World Series champs at the bottom of the American League East following three straight losses in Toronto.
The left-hander allowed an earned run in three of his last four after surrendering four hits over eight innings in Sunday's 6-0 home win over Kansas City. Now Lester will make his first start since principal owner John Henry announced Wednesday that the club would table contract talks with him until the offseason. Lester has won his last three starts versus Tampa Bay, including Game #1 of last year's playoff series. In his only meeting this season, he allowed four hits with 12 strikeouts in seven innings of a 4-0 home win June 1.
Diamond Trends - Friday
•TEXAS is 13-2 (+14.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 62%) over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TEXAS 5.3, OPPONENT 3.0.
•SAN DIEGO is 22-6 UNDER (+15.4 Units) versus a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start this season.
The average score was SAN DIEGO 3.2, OPPONENT 2.8.
•MIAMI is 16-3 (+15.6 Units) against the run line versus American League teams scoring 4.7 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MIAMI 4.3, OPPONENT 3.2.
•ALFREDO SIMON is 14-0 (+15.2 Units) against the money line versus an National League team with a team batting average of .255 or worse this season.
The average score was SIMON 4.1, OPPONENT 1.8.
•HIROKI KURODA is 21-3 UNDER (+17.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was KURODA 2.8, OPPONENT 3.4.
•WADE MILEY is 14-2 (+13.4 Units) against the run line versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MILEY 4.7, OPPONENT 2.2.
Situation Analysis of The Day
•Play On - Home teams (KANSAS CITY) - team with a poor on base percentage (<=.320) against a very good starting pitcher (WHIP<=1.300) - American League, starting a pitcher who walked 4+ hitters each of his last 2 outings.
(38-12 since 1997.) (76.0%, +37.5 units. Rating = 5*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team underdog with a money line of: +130.1
The average score in these games was: Team 4.5, Opponent 3.3 (Average run differential = +1.2)
The situation's record this season is: (2-1, +1 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (7-3, +4.7 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (21-5, +20 units).
•Play On - Home teams against a run line. (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +160) (CINCINNATI) - bad offensive team (<=4.1 runs/game) against a very good starting pitcher (ERA<=3.00) (National League), after a loss by 4 runs or more.
(52-15 since 1997.) (77.6%, +41.5 units. Rating = 5*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (46-21)
The average run line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 0.6, money line price: +109
The average score in these games was: Team 4.5, Opponent 3.3 (Average run differential = +1.2)
The number of games in which this system covered the run line by 1 or more runs was 41 (61.2% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (4-1, +4 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (26-5, +22.8 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (33-7, +28.7 units).
•Play Under - Home teams where the total is 8.5 to 10 (HOUSTON) - below average American League hitting team (AVG <=.265) against a team with a good bullpen (ERA <=3.75), with a cold starting pitcher- WHIP >= 2.000 over his last 5 starts.
(35-10 since 1997.) (77.8%, +24.4 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 9.1, Money Line=-106
The average score in these games was: Team 3.4, Opponent 4.1 (Total runs scored = 7.6)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 1 or more runs was 30 (63.8% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-1, +0 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (9-4, +4.7 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (19-6, +12.4 units).
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w-thumbs!^
