Service Plays Friday 7/25/08

[BETYOURASS]

Jeff Alexander Sports

1 Unit on Twins/Indians UNDER 8.5 Runs

With two strong starters on the hill tonight, the bats will be virtually silenced in this game. The Under is 6-1 in the Twins last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. The Under is 4-0-1 in Lee's last 5 starts overall and 4-0 in Lee's last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Under is also 7-3 in the Indians last 10 home games and 9-1-1 in Indians last 11 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game. We'll take a crack at the UNDER here.


Matt Fargo

Texas Rangers vs. Oakland Athletics
Play: Oakland Athletics

The A’s are back home following a miserable road trip where they went 1-5 and they look to try and get back in the race in the American League West. They are now 10 games out and they now have to worry about the Rangers creeping up on them as Texas is just a game behind them at this point. Oakland is 31-24 at home and it all starts with the pitching. The A’s starters have a 3.01 ERA at home which is 2nd best in the league. Granted, a lot had to do with Rich Harden but the bullpen sports a 3.00 ERA as well.

Texas has had a solid season thus far as it is two games over .500 but it is now two games under .500 on the road no thanks to its 2-4 start on this roadtrip. Pitching is a real issue as the team ERA is 5.22 on the season and it just keeps going up. That ERA jumps to 7.47 over the last 10 games with 7.93 coming from the starters. Over the last 17 games, they have allowed nine runs or more 10 times and have allowed an average of 7.6 rpg over those 17 games. This includes 10 runs in two straight.

The A’s go with their acquisition from that Harden deal as Sean Gallagher makes his third start since coming to Oakland. His last start was decent as he allowed two runs in five innings against the Yankees in New York. His first one was a quality outing at home against the Angels. He is not going to go deep in games but he gives good innings which is fine with the success of the A’s pen. In 10 starts with the Cubs, he posted a respectable 4.45 ERA as he allowed three runs or less in nine of his 12 starts on the season.

The Rangers go with Vicente Padilla to try and stop the bleeding but that is not going to happen. He has been a disaster of late after a very solid start to the season. He is coming off one of his best start on the year as he allowed just three hits in seven innings against the Twins. Prior to that however, he allowed 15 runs in his previous two starts and he has been up and down the last two months. After posting a 3.67 ERA in April and May, he has a 5.75 ERA in June and July. Play Oakland A’s 1.5 Units


Tony George

LAA Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles
Play: LAA Angels

Like Joe Saunders on the mound tonight with 1.10 WHIP and a 3.00 ERA his last 3 outings as well as a 12-5 record this year for LA. LA is 7-1 their last 8 games and by far are the better team tonight. They have taken 12 out of the last 16 in this series. Baltimore has dropped 7 out of their last 10 games, and the bullpen in the last 10 games has a whopping 5.97 ERA, and we all know LA has some hitters.

PLAY on the Angels


VEGAS EXPERTS

Colorado Rockies at Cincinnati Reds

Home is where the heart is for the Reds' Edinson Volquez, who not only is MLB's ERA leader, but is 6-0 in the Queen City this year with a 2.82 ERA. The Rockies are a dreadul road team, posting a 14-36 mark away from home this season, a Major League worst, including a pathetic 5-19 if coming off an Under. A win here gets Cincinnati within two games of .500 for the first time since early June.

Play on: Cincinnati

 

[$kipper]

Dwayne Bryant 25-14 (64%) last 39 plays

<table align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff" border="0" cellpadding="5" cellspacing="0" width="600"><tbody><tr> <td bgcolor="#cccccc">8:05 PM ET
MLB
Houston Astros (Rodriguez) at Milwaukee Brewers (Parra)</td></tr> <tr> <td bgcolor="#ebebeb"> Pick: Milwaukee Brewers (Listed Pitchers) -159
</td></tr> <tr> <td bgcolor="#ebebeb">

The Brewers have been good to us lately (with the exception of last night), so I'm riding them again. These two teams are heading in opposite directions. Houston is coming off being swept at home by the Pirates, while the Brewers have won nine straight and are coming off their first-ever four-game sweep in St. Louis. As Ryan Braun said, "Right now, our confidence level is at an all-time high."
Houston sends Wandy Rodriguez to the mound to try to "stop the bleeding." Rodriguez owns a mediocre 4.50 ERA, 1.56 WHIP and .350 OOBP on the road. In the last two years, Rodriguez has started four games in Miller Park. The results? Houston is 0-4 as Rodriguez allowed 19 earned runs, 24 hits and 13 walks in just 19 2/3 innings. That's an 8.69 ERA and 1.88 WHIP.
Milwaukee's Manny Parra has been overshadowed by CC Sabathia and Ben Sheets, but he is quietly having a very solid season. Parra is 5-0 (team is 7-3) at home with a 2.87 ERA. Parra averages getting 5.8 runs of support in his starts at Miller Park. He has faced Houston three times this season. His two starts in Houston were not good, but his one start at home (6 IP, 1 ER, 6 K's) was very solid.
The only reason I did not make this a Best Bet is because I can see the Brewers having a letdown after that huge four-game sweep in St. Louis. But they're still worth a play tonight, as they swept the only three-game series at Miller Park between these two teams by a combined score of 19-3.
I'll take the hot hand with Milwaukee/Parra over Houston/Rodriguez.
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[patriots12]

JEFFERSONSPORTS 2-0 yesterday

16-5-1 last 20 plays 76%

46-23-1 last 70 plays 67%

MLB RECORD
+33.92 units (+3392 playing 100 per game)

EARLY RELEASE FOR FRI (early game)
MLB
ARIZONA-133 Haren

What a run! :aktion033

Nice hit with the Mets and Winnipeg.
Any CFL plays today (Now 3-0-1 this year)


JEFFERSONSPORTS (no plays yest)

EARLY RELEASE FOR THURS (early game)
MLB
NY METS-125

CFL 2-0-1 so far this year
WINNIPEG+7
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[patriots12]

SAPKOWSKI

Best bet:
NYY vs. Boston over 4 in 1st 5 IN

Premium:
NYM
Milwaukee

Free
1st 5 IN
NYM over 5
NYY over 4

 

[pirates]

Rocketman

Bonus Play FRIDAY

Colorado @ Cincinnati 7:10 PM EST
Play On: 3* Cincinnati -140 (Cook/Volquez) Listed

Colorado is 4-15 this year when the total is 8 to 8 1/2. Colorado is 13-35 on the road this year. Cincinnati is 42-25 last 3 years when playing in Friday. Colorado is scoring only 3.5 runs per game on the road this year and 4.1 runs per game against right handed starters this season. Cincinnati bullpen has a 3.53 ERA overall this year and a 3.08 ERA at home this season. Volquez is 12-3 with a 2.49 ERA in all games this year, 12-2 with a 2.53 ERA in all starts this year, 6-0 with a 2.82 ERA at home and 2-0 his last 3 starts. Cook has a 7.79 ERA overall vs Cincinnati since 1997. We'll play Cincinnati for 3 units tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky

 

[atl4120]

Does anyone have Tom Stryker's 5* MLB GOY, thx

 

[Randy55]

Fri, 07/25/08 - 7:05 PMStan Sharp | MLB Money Line Double-Dime Bet
969 CWS (+100) Bodog vs 970 DET

 

[Let'sHugItOut]

Hey Randy,

Do you have vegas runner yet. Was just trying to catch it today before i head to work?

Thank you for yours and everyone elses dedication to this service section!

 

[CaliDreaming]

Tom Stryker's 5* MLB Game of the Year - 36-19 L55 Releases!
#963 ARIZONA with Haren (-133) over San Francisco at 10:15 PM EST

Larry Ness' Las Vegas Insider (26-16 with MLB Insiders since May 26)
My Las Vegas Insider is on the Cin Reds at 7:10 ET
Ben Burns' Burns' Friday CFL BLOWOUT (7:00 ET) ***7-2 YTD***
I'm taking the points with HAMILTON.

 

[baseballgod]

Tom Stryker's 5* MLB Game of the Year - 36-19 L55 Releases!
#963 ARIZONA with Haren (-133) over San Francisco at 10:15 PM EST

Larry Ness' Las Vegas Insider (26-16 with MLB Insiders since May 26)
My Las Vegas Insider is on the Cin Reds at 7:10 ET
Ben Burns' Burns' Friday CFL BLOWOUT (7:00 ET) ***7-2 YTD***
I'm taking the points with HAMILTON.

Hey Cali, do you usually get Ness's 15* or 20* plays as well?

 

[CaliDreaming]

Hey Cali, do you usually get Ness's 15* or 20* plays as well?

not usually

 

[prime21]

not usually

how about burns baseball hes been doing real good lately

 

[Randy55]

Hey Randy,

Do you have vegas runner yet. Was just trying to catch it today before i head to work?

Thank you for yours and everyone elses dedication to this service section!

He doesn't post until 5:30 - 6:00 Monday thru Friday.

 

[Randy55]

Fri, 07/25/08 - 7:05 PMMarco D'Angelo | MLB Money Line Double-Dime Bet
971 NYY (+125) SportBet vs 972 BOS

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

<TABLE style="TABLE-LAYOUT: fixed" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=5 width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top width="85%" height="100%">WUNDERDOG

Los Angeles at Baltimore
Pick: Los Angeles -133

The Angels own the best record in baseball and are red hot. The Angels are winners of seven of their last eight. They also own the best road record by far at 31-18, and have been destroying LHP to the tune of a 19-6 record. The Orioles hung in their for a while, but are now on a 4-12 run and have been playing rather poorly even at home where they are now just 3-7 over their last 10 home games. Joe Saunders is on his way to a potential 20-win season, and the Angels are 14-5 in his first 19 starts as Saunders has not allowed more than three runs over his last six starts. After a good start and ERA of 3.18 into late May, Brian Burres has pitched to a 7.28 ERA over his last 10 starts and has been highly ineffective. We like the Angels to take the opener here.
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

(C&P) CASH AND PROFIT EXPERTS - COMP

FRIDAY, JULY 25

New York Yankees
J Chamberlain -R

Boston Red Sox
Action

PLAY: NY YANKEES +125

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

on a plane can't see if dupes or not. pats12 and crew on fire again!:aktion033

Stan Sharp

Double-Dime Bet

CWS (+100) vs DET

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Matty O'Shea

PICK: Chicago White Sox +105 (MLB)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

From a good buddy of the forum:

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#dddddd><TD vAlign=top>Steve Zukiel</TD><TD vAlign=top align=right>Guaranteed Selections</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top>Date: Friday, July 25, 2008
$45.00 Guaranteed: Guaranteed 60 Unit MLB Shocker Of The Month! Win Or You Pay Nothing! Backed By Another Very Extensive Report! Do Not Do A Thing Until You Read What I Have To Say! First Pitch Goes After 7:00 PM EST! </TD><TD vAlign=top noWrap align=right>7/25/2008</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2> </TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2>Major League Baseball
Seattle vs Toronto
Thursday, July 24th, 2008
7:05 pm est 4:05 pm pacific
Line: Toronto(-120)
Rating: Guaranteed 60 Unit MLB Shocker Of The Month In this contest, my money is on the Toronto Blue Jays.
These two teams are headed in opposite directions. The Jays finally got back to .500 after sweeping Baltimore yesterday, and in fact, they come into this one on a three game winning streak, and have scored 22 runs in the process. That certainly is great news for us because Seattle has given up a whopping 29 runs in their last five games, all of them losses. The pitching matchup also favors the Jays as John Parrish looks to remain perfect on the year, while Miquel Batista is looking to get just anything going. Parrish is 2-0 this season and the Jays have won all three. I like how he has looked at home, as the ERA has dipped to 2.77. Batista on the other hand, is just 3-9 on the season and his ERA is at 7.23. Ugly. The team has won just five of his 16 overall starts.
Seattle owns one of the worst records in baseball and the Jays are starting to turn things on. I think Toronto should be favored by much, much more. Take the Jays in this one.
STEVE ZUKIEL TAKES THE TORONTO BLUE JAYS OVER THE SEATTLE MARINERS AS MY GUARANTEED 60 UNIT MLB SHOCKER OF THE MONTH
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Same buddy!

Purchased Premium Picks

<DL><DT class=dtPgTop>Fri, 07/25/08 - 8:10 PMThe King Maker | MLB Money Line <DT>double-dime bet977 TAM (-120)BetUS vs 978 KAN <DD>Analysis: The Devil Rays -120 at BetUS
1-Unit (adjust upward based on the information)

We have a tentative call on the OVER as well.

Tonight we will have a very traumatic strike zone to deal with. Jerry Crawford (splits posted at the bottom of the page) is calling the game, so I was slightly worried about taking Edwin Jackson in a wager. He has had QUALITY starts in 4 of his last 5 games, including 1 earned run in almost 7 innings AT the Bronx, and an 11-2 win over these KC Royals in Tampa.

However:

His worst starts over the last 10 games have come with OVER Umpires, so I really had to take a long look at the situation before I made this call.

The simple fact of the matter is that I now have a formula for fading the Royals. I look for a crappy starter....I look to see if we will see Mahay (Set-up man), and I check to see if Soria is domanant against my team (Closer).

After reviewing those parameters I felt GREAT about fading KC!

We have a nice slot for Tampa!
Bannister is pitching: This is what Tampa did to him THIS SEASON:


<TABLE class=tablehead cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3><TBODY><TR class=stathead><TD style="BACKGROUND: rgb(0,75,127) 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial" colSpan=10>Kansas City Royals</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD align=left>Pitchers</TD><TD>IP</TD><TD> H</TD><TD> R</TD><TD>ER</TD><TD>BB</TD><TD>SO</TD><TD>HR</TD><TD noWrap>PC-ST</TD><TD>ERA</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow align=right><TD align=left>B Bannister (L, 7-8)</TD><TD>5.0</TD><TD>8</TD><TD>7</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>1</TD><TD noWrap>102-62</TD><TD>5.15</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
The final in that game was 11-2, and guess who the opposing pitcher was?


<TABLE class=tablehead cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3><TBODY><TR class=stathead><TD style="BACKGROUND: rgb(0,39,93) 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial" colSpan=10>Tampa Bay Rays</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD align=left>Pitchers</TD><TD>IP</TD><TD> H</TD><TD> R</TD><TD>ER</TD><TD>BB</TD><TD>SO</TD><TD>HR</TD><TD noWrap>PC-ST</TD><TD>ERA</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow align=right><TD align=left>E Jackson (W, 5-6)</TD><TD>8.0</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>1</TD><TD noWrap>113-74</TD><TD>4.08</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Edwin Jackson mowed them down by throwing 74 strikes on 113 total pitches! He was forcing the fly ball like crazy, and this suggests that the Royals were increasingly undisciplined at the plate when they were forced to deal with Jackson's velocity.

And this is the reason why I am having trouble with a call on the over for the game: KC may be facing a hitter's zone, but impatient hitters fall behind in EVEN the nastiest OVER zones! This is why teams like Seattle and KC continally dissapoint in OVER Zones. They are free swingers, and poorly managed from a hitting standpoint! So Edwin just needs to throw strikes and they will swing. I think he can survive the zone!

I digress: Bannister is a mess right now, and he's offering up more excuses for his bad performances. This marks the third time this year that he's come out with some technical explanation for sucking. Here's the latest excuse:

"It just took me until now to realize how dramatic the splits were with me pitching out of the windup and the stretch," Bannister said.

"You could look it up. In his 20 starts, with nobody on base he's held batters to a .245 average and four home runs. With runners on, that jumps to .344 and 12 home runs."

CLICK HERE FOR THE ENTIRE ATRICLE

In short: He was shortening his delivery, in the stretch, with runners on base. He says this elevated the ball, and led to big innings. He says he's going to stop doing that.

Whatever!

Maybe this will work for him, he a very smart kid, he can make changes and succeed, so don't get me wrong, I respect him, but this kid is a scout, as well as a pitcher, and he has the same information about the Umpire tonight, and he knows that he has trouble with Tampa in general, so LITTLE MISTER SELF ANALYST is going to go berzerk when he ponders the zone, and when he realizes that Crawford is calling the game, and he's facing 6 left handed bats he will alter his delivery once again.

The last time Banny saw this strike zone he walked 6 batters in Colorado on June 29th. He got the Win, and the stats look pretty good, but he was facing a Right Handed lineup, and he thrives against the Right. Colorado just stinks vs low ballers like Banny. He preyed on their right handers.

Tampa's Southpaws knock him out of rhythm with a line-up that can flash 6 possible lefties and only 2 natural righties at a pitcher, and this is a problem for Bannister.

Bannister is good against the Right, because he has a nice slider that he can use on them. He abandons the slider on the left handers and resorts to a change-up in it's place. That change-up can be hit!

So lefties bat .300 against him.
Restating the issue: He cannot use a strong slider on the Lefties, so he locates in the meat of the zone on the Southpaws with a change-up, and that's when he can get rocked.

He cannot settle into a rhythm, like he did with Colorado (only 2 lefties in that meeting: one of which walked twice, the other had an RBI and a walk), because the slider dissapears!

In it's place is a change-up! A weak change-up.

So how does that change-up travel on a tampa lefty?

I broke out the pitch-trajectory history and reviewed the location of his change:

Oh, by the way, I told you that he struggles VS lefty-heavy line-ups, and of course, you know that it was 11-2 in the last meeting a few weeks ago.

Look at Tampa line-up:
L, R, L, R, L, Switch, Switch, R, Switch!


Bannister is toast against a left handed line-up, he allows them to bat .300, can't throw a slider on them with effect, and he has to throw a change-up that is almost always a BALL in the Crawford zone.

I tracked the pictch location on the left handers for Colorado, in the last metting between Banny and this Ump. Banny did well against Colorado, because the Rocks only have 2 lefties. He runs that slider to the outside on the right handers and if they are lame hitters then they chase.

Even then, he managed to walk 6 Rockies in this zone.

But he really showed his colors against Hawpe and Helton. All change-ups were thrown for BALLS to the lefties, and if Hawpe didnt swing on the 6th pitch in his third at bat, they would have had 4 WALKS between them!

You could see that Banny was running into hitter's counts in the Crawford zone ON THE LEFTIES.

So what will he do if he is faced with the possibility of 6 lefties tonight?

Iwamura, Crawfor, Pena...all lefties
Aybar, Navarro, and Zobrist all Switches.

There are only 2 strictly Right Handed Bats in that Tampa order!!!!

This is why he lost the last meeting 11-2

The Lefties for Tampa against Banny on July 4th 1st inning:

Iwamura (Lefty) took him into the 6th pitch and doubled.

Crawford (Lefty) immediately singled

Pena (Lefty) Singled

All in the first inning. It was 3-0 Tampa after the first with 4 out of the first 5 batters lining up as Left Handers!

You can make your own call on the Tampa Team total, which is set at 4.5 at BetUS...They can get that, but I think we will have a better time with loading up on Tampa on the ML. Banny will walk 6 batters tonight if he stays in long enough. That means runners on the bags, and that means that he will struggle with "the Stretch wind-up".

The KC pen is in trouble:

Mahay is the guy that could hurt us in the middle innings. For those that are unfamiliar, he is a dominant set-up man.

BUT

He went out there in the last two Royal games and he pitched in a very mediocre manner, allowing 1 run, 3 hits in two appearances (2 innings), and he had to go through 6 detroit batters in 1 of those innings, so it could have been worse.

He's devastating, but slowing down, and the fact that he went in the last 2 games means that he may not go if we have a 2 run lead or more. If he does go, I can't imagine that he would be out there long. It would be foolish to waste him like that, but KC may do it...

I just think we wont see Mahay. And that's a big reason to fade KC


What about the closer, Soria:

He went last night and might come out tonight if we are losing, but the fact that Tampa loves to see him makes me VERY happy.

Soria has a 9.00 ERA VS Tampa and they ripped him again last night: He went 1 inning allowed 2 hits and 1 run, and faced 5 batters!

Nice!

We shouldn't fear this kid, especially since he got his ALl Star appearance behind him. He might be a little less dominant for a few weeks.

All-in-all: I want to write more on this game, but time is slipping away.

For KC we have a starter that is in danger of getting rocked
For KC the bullpen might be in a spot to get rocked.
Mister Crawford is calling the game: BIG OVER!

That's enough for me to lay heavy on Tampa, and when I wen't down on Tampa at BetUS with two separate accounts, the line bumped to -130, so either a bunch of guys went with me, or they got spooked but they moved it none-the-less.


Here is Crawford's numbers (Umpire)

He AVERAGES 11.53 Runs per game
He AVERAGES 60% Strikes (Heavy OVER)
He almost walks as many as he strikes out!!!!
11.8 K's and 8.2 Walks!!!!!
He is 5-2 OVER on totals set at 9.5 and 10!
He averages 306 pitches per game (Heavy OVER)

Starters alone account for 7.21 runs (innings 1-5)
Middle innings chew up 4 runs.

Suggestions:

Don't play the Under in the 1st 5 innnings.
Think OVER for Tampa Team.
Consider OVER for the Game.



Added note: As a lefty. Floyd should be the DH tonight. Navarro, a switch, lined up lefty VS Bannister in the last meeting, and it is shown that Tampa will chose to go Lefty on Banny.

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