STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT
FRIDAY, JULY 18th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Friday, 7/18/14 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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MLB Betting News and Notes - Week #16
The All-Star game is a wrap and as teams gear up for the unofficial second half of the season we take a look at the division odds for each team. The Detroit Tigers have the best odds to win their division (American League Central) at 1-7, while the tightest division race is in the National League Central where there are still four teams with realistic odds at the division title. Meanwhile the team with the majors best record, the Oakland Athletics, are 2-3 to win the American League West, with the Los Angeles Angels hot on their tails at 6-5.
Here is the complete list of division odds courtesy LV Superbook.
NL EAST DIVISION
•NATIONALS 5-9
•BRAVES 3-2
•METS 50/1
•MARLINS 60/1
•PHILLIES 100/1
NL CENTRAL DIVISION
•CARDINALS 11-10
•BREWERS 5-2
•REDS 7-2
•PIRATES 11-2
•CUBS 1000/1
NL WEST DIVISION
•DODGERS 2-5
•GIANTS 2/1
•DIAMONDBACKS 300/1
•PADRES 300/1
•ROCKIES 300/1
AL EAST DIVISION
•ORIOLES 11-10
•BLUE JAYS 12-5
•YANKEES 3/1
•RED SOX 15/1
•RAYS 15/1
AL CENTRAL DIVISION
•TIGERS 1-7
•INDIANS 7/1
•ROYALS 7/1
•WHITE SOX 100/1
•TWINS 100/1
AL WEST DIVISION
•ATHLETICS 2-3
•ANGELS 6-5
•MARINERS 15/1
•RANGERS 5000/1
•ASTROS 5000/1
Thursday's MLB Roundup
-- Matt Kemp isn’t asking the Dodgers to trade him. But he isn’t necessarily opposed to the idea, either. The outfielder’s agent, former major-league pitcher Dave Stewart, told FOX Sports on Wednesday that Kemp again wants to be an everyday center fielder, something that isn’t in his immediate future with the Dodgers. Kemp, 29, is again an intriguing figure as the July 31 non-waiver deadline approaches. Since May 2, he has raised his batting average from .205 to .269 and his OPS from .736 to .760. He also has started 40 of the Dodgers’ last 42 games in left field.
-- The Boston Red Sox released catcher A.J. Pierzynski on Wednesday after designating him for assignment last week. The team was unable to trade the 37-year-old, who hit .254 with four home runs and 31 RBIs in 72 games. Pierzynski signed by the Red Sox during the offseason to a one-year, $8.25 million contract. A two-time All-Star, Pierzynski played for the San Francisco Giants, Minnesota Twins, Chicago White Sox and Texas Rangers.
-- Rangers veteran reliever Jason Frasor was traded to the Kansas City Royals in exchange for minor-league relief pitcher Spencer Patton. Frasor, 36, had a 3.34 ERA in 38 games with the Rangers, including 30 strikeouts in 29 1/3 innings. Royals infielder Jimmy Paredes was designated for assignment to clear space on the 40-man roster for Frasor and right-hander Louis Coleman was optioned to Omaha.
-- The White Sox claimed right-handed pitcher Raul Fernandez off waivers from the Colorado Rockies and assigned him to Class A Winston-Salem. Fernandez, 24, was 0-1 with a 7.00 ERA, seven saves and 20 strikeouts over 29 relief appearances in 27 innings this season with Class A Modesto in the Rockies organization. He converted seven of his eight save opportunities. Fernandez, a native of Boca Chica, Dominican Republic, spent the 2008 season as a catcher before being converted to a pitcher full-time in 2009. He was originally signed by Colorado as an international free agent on Nov. 13, 2007.
-- With Bud Selig's reign as MLB commissioner set to come to an end in January, one of the games most respected figures has let it be known he would be willing to replace him: Joe Torre. The 74-year-old told New York Daily News "If the owners feel I can help baseball, I'm willing to do whatever they want me to do. I'm certainly not lobbying for it, but I want to stay involved." Torre is a baseball lifer with an impressive resume, including nine All-Star appearances as a player to go along with four World Series titles as the manager of the New York Yankees. With no successor for Selig named, it's certainly an intriguing situation worth keeping a close eye on.
-- Derek Jeter's final All-Star appearance has helped boost television ratings for the game. The American League's 5-3 win Tuesday in Minneapolis averaged more than 11.3 million viewers on Fox, up from 11 million for last year's game at the Mets' Citi Field in New York. The rating was up 9 percent for the first full half-hour, when the retiring Yankees shortstop first stepped to the plate. The network said Wednesday that the 7.0 fast national rating was the highest since 2010. The 2012 edition set a record low with a 6.8. Ratings represent the percentage of homes with televisions tuned to a program.
Five Pitchers To Watch Over The Next 2½ Months
Editor’s Note: StatSystemsSports.net Systems Analyst James Vogel has been enjoying yet another very profitable baseball season with his Huge *5-Star Over/Under selections, being 43-17-3 (71.6%), +$8,325 for the year. In addition, he’s 35-11-2 (76.0%) since mid-May with his side releases, and considering he went on that historic 169-89-11 (65.5%), +$7,092 run last year from May 6 until the end of the season (Which was the best streak in the entire country), he’s only getting started! Why would you not invest in guaranteed profits?
Here we are once again at the All-Star break, mired somewhere in the middle of yet another crazy baseball season. It’s a strange time, isn’t it? For me personally, being someone who obsessively studies and follows this stuff literally every single day and night over the course of the six-month journey, it’s the only portion of the year where time seems to be frozen, as we all collectively wait for our favorite teams and players to return to action and resume the latest installment of America’s national pastime.
Through the first three-months-and-change of the campaign, we’ve already observed some pretty wild events and performances, while being in the midst of saying one of the most emotional goodbyes to any professional athlete in recent memory, but as hard as it is to believe, we still have another two-and-a-half months to go, and that doesn’t even include the always eventful playoff slate. With only a select amount of time left, you may be looking for starting pitchers -- my specialty, and what is really the nucleus for my annual success in over/under betting -- that are on the rise to ride consistently in gambling so with that being said, I present to you five up-and-coming Starting Pitchers (In alphabetical order), whom I’ve been tracking closely for awhile, and appear to be on the hinge of breaking out into something much bigger...
•Jake Arrieta - Chicago Cubs
By now, the secret is out about Jake Arrieta, but since I was one of the few on his bandwagon when he first became a Cub last year following a once-thought-to-be meaningless acquisition, I will gladly take this opportunity to revel in it, given how hard he had fallen in Baltimore. After beginning the year on the DL, Arrieta finally arrived to the big league rotation in the beginning of May, when he actually defeated longtime Cubs nemesis Adam Wainwright, and since then, has pitched masterfully. In fact, he’s been so good that despite missing the first month of the season, he was drawing some serious All-Star consideration, something that once seemed unfathomable for a guy who struggled mightily for years while not showing many signs of hope as an Oriole.
Arrieta has transformed himself into a legitimate upper-rotation pitcher, carrying a 5-1 record, 1.95 ERA, and 1.01 WHIP into the second half of the season, but the most impressive stat of all, however, might be his K:BB ratio, which sits at a very impressive 85:22 mark in 78 innings of work. From a betting standpoint, Arrieta has been an unders machine, producing a 7-3-3 record in favor of under bets (I’m actually 5-0-2 with his unders this year), even while regularly drawing low lines. I said it early on in the year when Arrieta first made his return and I’ll say it again: This is someone that could very well be the Cubs’ Opening Day starter in 2015. I actually really like the Cubs next season and am seriously eyeing their Over Win Total as my best bet for ’15 (I said the same thing about the Marlins in this very column a year ago concerning this season, and what a terrific call that turned out to be), and Arrieta will be a big reason for that. In the meantime, his ascension should be taken seriously and bet on accordingly.
•Roenis Elias - Seattle Mariners
Oh man, if there’s one starting pitcher that has made their debut in 2014 and caught my eye more than anyone else -- while coming out of the blue to do it, as this kid was barely recognized within his club’s strong young pitching depth previously -- it’s southpaw Roenis Elias, Seattle’s sneakily-emerging rookie. While Elias’ numbers at the moment are far from desirable (7-8, 4.54 ERA, 1.27 WHIP), the 25-year old actually displayed enormous potential prior to a recent three-start stretch that has seen the left-hander yield five runs or more in each outing. In fact, entering late-June, Elias possessed a very respectable 3.74 ERA, and even though that number has since ballooned up almost a full run, I really think Elias will get back on track in the second half and ultimately become an impact player for awhile.
Pitching in a home venue like Safeco Field for half your starts certainly helps, but it’s also his strikeout potential that leads me to believe he can sustain success at the big league level. Elias has actually registered five or more strikeouts in 13 of his 19 starts, and prior to his current funk, he had also exhibited notable consistency, having surrendered three runs or less 11 times in 16 tries, including an impressive complete game shutout in Detroit on June 1 when he outdueled reigning AL Cy Young Max Scherzer. Just like his arrival onto the major league scene, most still aren’t familiar with him but it won’t be long before more people know the name Elias… Roenis Elias.
•David Hale - Atlanta Braves
The Atlanta Braves boasting a fabulous starting rotation is pretty much always a given with any baseball season (Even when they have to depend on the likes of Gavin Floyd and Aaron Harang), and it appears that will remain the case so long as David Hale is featured as a prominent part of it. I first fell in love with Hale as soon as he made his major league debut last year, when he made two starts and produced an outstanding 14:1 K:BB ratio in his 11 combined innings, while also recording a 0.82 ERA and 1.09 WHIP.
I was so excited for the right-hander that I actually tabbed him as one of my top three sleepers entering the 2014 campaign (Along with Tanner Roark and James Paxton; how many other people made that genius call on Roark besides me?), as I thought Hale would become a regular fixture on the Braves pitching staff, but alas, that would not end up happening, as the talented young right-hander only made a few starts -- and that apparently was only because of the team’s many injuries -- before being relegated to the bullpen once some of their older arms returned from the shelf. Hale made a spot start a few weeks ago and was excellent as always, and it’s only a matter of time before he resurfaces in the rotation. When that happens, look out. If you’re into fantasy baseball, you should claim Hale immediately if he’s reinstated as a starter later on this season. Just like I emphasized last September, David Hale is going to be legitimately tremendous, and for a long time.
•James Paxton - Seattle Mariners
The fact that another Seattle pitcher is being featured in this article -- and one not named Felix Hernandez or Hisashi Iwakuma -- is a main reason why the Mariners are legitimate contenders this season (And I haven’t even discussed the more-known commodity, Taijuan Walker, who is basically a guarantee to succeed). This particular hurler, James Paxton, arguably has as high a ceiling, in my opinion, as any rookie in baseball, and actually might be my favorite up-and-coming left-hander in the game. As mentioned in my David Hale analysis, Paxton was another one of my top three sleepers entering the 2014 campaign, and through his first two starts of the season, it appeared I was spot-on with that call, considering the 25-year old southpaw recorded a 13:2 K:BB ratio in 12 combined innings, while putting together a 2.25 ERA and microscopic 0.67 WHIP in the process.
Unsurprisingly, Paxton won both of those games. Unfortunately, he’s been on the DL ever since thanks to a shoulder issue -- although he is finally close to returning -- and while his sample size this year is quite small, you only have to take a look at what he did last season when he received his first call-up to conclude how dominant this kid can truly be. Paxton made his first four career starts last September, and he was phenomenal, going 3-0 with a 1.50 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, and 21:7 K:BB ratio in 24 innings. Overall, he’s racked up 36 career innings thus far, and has a 1.75 ERA and 0.83 WHIP to show for it, while opponents are batting just .164 against him. Yeah, this is someone that’s undoubtedly going to be special so make sure you ride him as soon as he makes his grand return.
•Danny Salazar - Cleveland Indians
Yes, I realize Danny Salazar is currently in the minor leagues. Yes, I realize Salazar was nothing but horrific when he was up with the big league club for the first month-and-a-half of the 2014 season. Setbacks can happen with young pitchers, especially very early on in a career when said pitcher is tagged with the pressure of having high expectations from the organization. After the Indians’ surprising break-out run of a year ago (Successfully called by this author, remember), which featured Salazar’s immediate rise towards the end thanks to his standout pitching over ten starts, including a performance that almost single-handedly carried them past the AL Wild Card play-in game, the right-hander was expected to lead the rotation from here on out for years to come with his dominant arsenal.
Instead, Salazar endured the rockiest of runs for a starting pitcher, as he struggled to the tune of a 5.53 ERA and 1.62 WHIP, and only registered two quality starts in his eight tries. Furthermore, opponents were hitting over .300 against him, and the 24-year old averaged one home run allowed per start. Even so, I still believe what we saw last year from him, albeit in a not-so-large sample size, was no fluke or flash in the pan at all, and that Danny Salazar still has monster potential to become something big for a considerable amount of time. He’ll make his return at some point so make sure you keep close tabs on him.
**Honorable Mention: Danny Duffy, Chris Archer, Kyle Gibson, Tyler Skaggs, Vance Worley (If he gets back into the Pittsburgh starting rotation), Tyler Thornburg (Just as I said last year, when he’s permanently in Milwaukee’s rotation, which should’ve been all along), Dallas Beeler.
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Betting Notes - Friday
National League
•Rockies-Pirates - 7:05 PM
--Rockies lost nine of their last ten road games.
--Pittsburgh lost five of last seven games, but is 9-2 in last 11 home games.
--Over is 13-5-1 in Colorado's last nineteen road games.
•Brewers-Nationals - 7:05 PM
--Milwaukee lost 11 of its last 13 games.
--Washington won ten of its last fourteen games.
--Five of last six Brewer games went over the total.
•Giants-Marlins - 7:10 PM
--Giants lost 13 of their last 20 games.
--Miami lost five of its last six games.
--13 of last 20 Marlin games went over the total.
•Phillies-Braves - 7:35 PM
--Phillies won five of last seven games, but lost last two.
--Atlanta won five of its last six home games.
--Eight of last eleven Philly games went over the total.
•Dodgers-Cardinals - 8:15 PM
--Dodgers are 15-10 in their last 25 road games.
--St Louis won five of its last seven games.
--Four of last five Dodger games stayed under the total.
•Cubs-Diamondbacks - 9:40 PM
--Cubs lost eight of their last ten games.
--Arizona lost 18 of its last 29 games.
--Nine of last twelve Cub games went over the total.
•Mets-Padres - 10:10 PM
--Mets won seven of their last eight games.
--San Diego lost seven of its last nine games.
--16 of last 21 San Diego games stayed under.
American League
•Rangers-Blue Jays - 7:05 PM
--Rangers lost 23 of their last 27 games.
--Toronto lost seven of its last nine games.
--Five of last six Texas road games went over the total.
•Indians-Tigers - 7:05 PM
--Indians won six of their last nine games.
--Detroit won five of its last six games.
--Six of last seven Detroit home games went over total.
•Royals-Red Sox - 7:10 PM
--Royals lost six of their last nine games.
--Boston won four of its last five games.
--Six of last eight Kansas City games stayed under.
•Rays-Twins - 8:10 PM
--Tampa Bay won eight of its last nine road games.
--Twins won five of their last six games.
--Seven of last ten Tampa Bay games went over total.
•Astros-White Sox - 8:10 PM
--Astros won last three road games, after losing 10 of previous 11.
--White Sox lost four of their last five games.
--Seven of last nine Houston games went over the total.
•Mariners-Angels - 10:05 PM
--Seattle won seven of its last nine road games.
--Angels won 12 of their last 14 games.
--Under is 8-2-1 in last eleven Mariner games.
•Orioles-Athletics - 10:05 PM
--Baltimore won five of its last six road games.
--Athletics won 11 of their last 12 home games.
--Under is 7-1-3 in last eleven Oakland games.
Interleague
•Reds-Yankees - 7:05 PM
--Cincinnati won seven of its last nine games.
--New York lost seven of its last eight home games.
--Under is 6-2-1 in last nine Yankees home games.
•Incredible Stat of the Day
Edwin Jackson of the Chicago Cubs is 3-14 his last seventeen road team starts. When the Cubs signed right-hander Edwin Jackson to a large free-agent contract prior to last season, their worst fears likely didn't include an 18-loss campaign followed by another season of disappointment. Jackson led the majors in losses in 2013 after signing a four-year, $52 million contract. He's been a disappointment so far this season as well, and he's coming off his worst start of 2014 after allowing nine runs -- including three homers -- in 3 2/3 innings of an 11-6 loss to Atlanta on Saturday.
Diamond Trends - Friday
•LA DODGERS are 29-5 (+22.6 Units) against the money line versus an National League team with an on base percentage .315 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was LA DODGERS 4.0, OPPONENT 1.6.
•LA ANGELS are 15-1 UNDER (+13.9 Units) in home games when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 54%) in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was LA ANGELS 2.8, OPPONENT 2.9.
•TEXAS is 0-11 (-13.8 Units) against the run line versus an American League team with an on base percentage .330 or worse in the second half of the season this season.
The average score was TEXAS 3.5, OPPONENT 7.9.
•JEFF SAMARDZIJA is 3-14 (-12.3 Units) against the money line versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game this season.
The average score was SAMARDZIJA 2.5, OPPONENT 4.4.
•JERED WEAVER is 37-12 UNDER (+23.6 Units) versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the second half of the season since 1997.
The average score was WEAVER 3.6, OPPONENT 3.2.
•EDWIN JACKSON is 4-19 (-20.4 Units) against the run line versus poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was JACKSON 3.7, OPPONENT 6.3.
Situation Analysis of The Day
•Play Against - Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (MIAMI) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 to 4.20 on the season (National League), after a game where the bullpen was rocked for 6 or more earned runs.
(68-26 since 1997.) (72.3%, +49.7 units. Rating = 5*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team underdog with a money line of: +110.3
The average score in these games was: Team 6, Opponent 4.3 (Average run differential = +1.7)
The situation's record this season is: (2-2, +0.2 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (6-3, +3.8 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (13-3, +11.3 units).
•Play Against - All teams against a run line of (+1.5, -155) to (-1.5, +135) (CHI WHITE SOX) - poor American League hitting team (AVG <=.260) against a team with a bad bullpen (ERA >=5.00), cold hitting team - batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games.
(55-12 over the last 5 seasons.) (82.1%, +38.3 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (43-24 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average run line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 1.3, money line price: -139
The average score in these games was: Team 5.4, Opponent 4.1 (Average run differential = +1.3)
The number of games in which this system covered the run line by 1 or more runs was 42 (62.7% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (13-2, +10.4 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (25-4, +19.7 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (161-99, +10.3 units).
•Play Under - All teams where the total is 8 to 8.5 (ARIZONA) - below average National League hitting team (AVG <=.255) against a team with a good bullpen (ERA <=3.75), starting a over rested pitcher who is working on 7 or more days rest.
(62-25 over the last 5 seasons.) (71.3%, +33.4 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 8.2, Money Line=-114.4
The average score in these games was: Team 3.7, Opponent 3.4 (Total runs scored = 7.1)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 1 or more runs was 51 (58.6% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (4-2, +1.9 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (44-15, +26.8 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (111-69, +32.7 units).
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w-thumbs!^
