STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT
FRIDAY, JULY 11th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Friday, 7/11/14 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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MLB Betting News and Notes - Week #15
•Yanks Put Beltran On DL, Recall Solarte: The New York Yankees placed outfielder Carlos Beltran on the seven-day concussion disabled list Thursday after a batting practice mishap. The Yankees also recalled infielder Yangervis Solarte from Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre after sending him down last week. Beltran has two fractured bones in his face after being struck by a batted ball during batting practice Wednesday. A ball that Beltran hit bounced off the screen protecting the pitcher and struck his eye.
The 37-year-old has hit just .216 with nine home runs and 28 RBIs in 61 games. Solarte was immediately placed in the starting lineup at third base for Thursday night's game at Cleveland. Solarte, who opened the season hitting .336 in his first 34 games but only .187 in his last 37 games, was sent down to Triple-A on July 3. Solarte, a non-roster invitee, came out of nowhere during spring training to beat out Eduardo Nunez for the 25th spot on the team. He then won the third base job over Kelly Johnson, with six home runs and 29 RBIs over the first two months of the season.
•Astros Trade RHP Doran To White Sox: The Houston Astros traded right-handed pitcher Bobby Doran to the Chicago White Sox for a player to be named later, the teams announced Thursday. The White Sox assigned Doran to Triple-A Charlotte. He had a 5.36 ERA in 80 2/3 innings for Triple-A Oklahoma prior to the trade.
•Yadier Molina To Miss 8-12 Weeks With Torn Thumb Ligament: Cardinals catcher Yadier Molina has a torn ligament in his right thumb and will miss 8-12 weeks following surgery, the team announced. Molina exited Wednesday's game with the injury after sliding into third base, though it was a foot-first slide. Molina, 31, is one of the most durable catchers in baseball. He has started at least 128 games behind the plate every year from 2009-13, and his 1,083 games at catcher since 2006 are the most in baseball. A knee problem sent him to the disabled list last season for the first time since 2007.
In 83 games and 335 plate appearances this season, Molina is hitting .287/.341/.409 (109 OPS+) with 16 doubles and seven home runs. He hit .313/.361/.481 (130 OPS+) from 2011-13. The injury is a huge blow to the Cardinals, both offensively and defensively. With Molina out, St. Louis figures to rely on the catching tandem of Tony Cruz and Audry Perez. Cruz has hit .233/.270/.323 (63 OPS+) as Molina's backup since 2012. St. Louis has won three straight games and come into Thursday with a 50-42 record. They are two games back of the top spot in the NL Central and tied for the second wild-card spot.
•Reds' Phillips To Miss 8-12 Weeks: Cincinnati Reds second baseman Brandon Phillips will miss eight to 12 weeks following surgery for a torn thumb ligament, the team announced Thursday. Phillips suffered his injury while making a sliding catch in the eighth inning of Wednesday's game against the Chicago Cubs. He wore a splint as he left the clubhouse. Phillips, 33, has hit .272 with 19 doubles and seven home runs in 86 games this year. The Reds promoted infielder Kris Negron from Triple-A Louisville after injuries to center fielder Billy Hamilton (hamstring) and Phillips.
In Thursday's game, Reds right-hander Homer Bailey left his start against the Cubs in the sixth inning with pain in the patellar tendon of his right knee. Bailey was delivering a 1-2 pitch to Starlin Castro, but he didn't throw the ball while gingerly completing his motion. After a visit from trainer Paul Lessard and manager Bryan Price, he walked off the field and was replaced by the right-hander Sam LeCure. After the game, it was announced that Bailey has a slight knee strain and is expected to make his next start.
Negron, 28, has hit .269 with three home runs with Louisville. He appeared in four games with the Reds in 2012, but that is his only major league experience. The Reds optioned right-hander Carlos Contreras to Louisville to make room on the 25-man roster for Negron. Louisville right-hander Brett Marshall was designated for assignment to make room for Negron on the 40-man roster. Contreras appeared in three games out of the bullpen for the Reds, allowing one run in 4 1/3 innings.
•Angels Placed Struggling C.J. Wilson On 15-Day DL: The Angels have placed left-hander C.J. Wilson on the 15-day disabled list with an ankle injury, the team announced. It is his first visit to the disabled list since becoming a starter during the 2010 season. Wilson, 33, allowed six runs on eight hits in 3 2/3 innings against the Blue Jays on Wednesday. He told reporters his struggles "are not a physical issue" following the game. Wilson has pitched to a 10.26 ERA with a 2.34 WHIP in his last four starts.
Before becoming a starter a few years ago, Wilson battled numerous injury problems, including Tommy John surgery and a broken elbow. He has been incredibly durable since moving into the rotation though, throwing at least 200 innings every year from 2010-12. Wilson has gone 8-6 with a 4.33 ERA in 19 starts and 116 1/3 innings this year. He owns a 3.48 ERA in 958 1/3 innings as a starter since 2010. As a reliever from 2005-09, Wilson had a 4.30 ERA in 280 2/3 innings. In addition to placing Wilson on the DL, the Angels also optioned Cam Bedrosian to the minors and called up both Cory Rasmus and Drew Rucinski. Nick Maronde was designated for assignment as well.
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Betting Notes - Friday
National League
•Braves-Cubs - 4:05 PM
--Wood is 1-1, 2.25 in his last three starts.
--Arrieta is 4-0, 0.89 in his last six starts.
--Braves lost four of their last five games.
--Cubs lost six of their last seven games.
--Seven of ten Wood starts stayed under the total.
•Nationals-Phillies - 7:05 PM
--Zimmerman is 3-2, 1.26 in his last seven starts.
--Philly lost last three Burnett starts (0-2, 4.50).
--Washington won eight of its last eleven games.
--Phillies won their last four games, but lost last four at home.
--Six of last seven Zimmerman starts stayed under total.
•Pirates-Reds - 7:10 PM
--Pittsburgh won last five Locke starts (2-0, 2.63).
--Latos is 2-1, 1.64 in his last three starts.
--Pirates lost four of their last five road games.
--Cincinnati won five of its last six games.
--Four of five Latos starts stayed under total.
•Marlins-Mets - 7:10 PM
--Miami won last ten Alvarez starts (3-0, 1.85 in last five).
--Wheeler is 1-0, 1.42 in his last couple starts.
--Marlins are 5-8 in their last thirteen games.
--Mets won four of their last five games.
--Five of last six Alvarez road starts went over.
•Cardinals-Brewers - 8:10 PM
--Kelly was 1-1, 1.76 in three starts in April, before going on DL.
--Gallardo is 2-1, 3.00 in his last six starts.
--Cardinals won three of their last four games.
--Milwaukee lost nine of its last ten games.
--Five of last six Gallardo starts stayed under the total.
•Padres-Dodgers - 10:10 PM
--Hahn is 4-1, 1.74 in his last five starts.
--Haren is 1-1, 6.48 in his last three starts.
--Padres lost five of their last six games.
--Dodgers lost three of their last four games.
--11 of last 12 San Diego road games stayed under.
•Diamondbacks-Giants - 10:15 PM
--Bolsinger is 0-5, 5.34 in his last five starts.
--Lincecum is 3-0, 0.39 in his last three starts.
--Arizona won three of its last four games.
--Giants lost 15 of their last 19 home games.
--Ten of last thirteen Arizona games stayed under.
American League
•White Sox-Indians - 7:05 PM
--Noesi is 2-2, 5.14 in his last six starts.
--Kluber is 2-2, 1.24 in his last four starts.
--White Sox won five of last seven on road, but lost last two.
--Indians won six of their last nine games.
--Over is 7-2-1 in last ten Cleveland home games.
•Yankees-Orioles - 7:05 PM
--Kuroda is 2-3, 4.06 in his last six starts.
--Gonzalez is 1-2, 4.40 in his last five starts.
--New York won six of their last nine road games.
--Baltimore won four of its last five games.
--Nine of last twelve Bronx road games went over total.
•Blue Jays-Rays - 7:10 PM
--Buehrle is 0-5, 3.83 in his last six starts; Toronto scored 13 runs.
--Archer is 1-0, 2.35 in his last couple starts.
--Blue Jays lost eight of their last nine road games.
--Tampa Bay won 11 of its last 15 games.
--Four of last five Toronto games stayed under.
•Angels-Rangers - 8:05 PM
--Angels won last seven Richards starts (6-0, 1.45).
--Tepesch is 1-4, 5.34 in his last six starts.
--Angels won nine of their last eleven games.
--Rangers lost 11 of their last 12 games.
--14 of last 19 Texas road games went over total.
•Red Sox-Astros - 8:10 PM
--Lackey is 1-2, 10.93 in his last three starts.
--Feldman is 1-0, 3.00 in his last two starts.
--Red Sox lost six of last nine games, but won last two.
--Astros won last three games, are out of last place in AL West.
--Five of last seven Boston road games went over.
•Tigers-Royals - 8:10 PM
--Sanchez is 1-1, 7.00 in his last three starts.
--Duffy is 3-3, 2.28 in his last seven starts.
--Detroit won six of its last eight road games.
--Royals lost seven of their last ten home games.
--Five of last six Sanchez starts went over the total.
•Athletics-Mariners - 10:10 PM
--Samardzija is 1-1, 4.00 in his last three starts.
--Hernandez is 7-1, 1.72 in his last eleven starts.
--Oakland won seven of its last eight games.
--Mariners lost their last three games.
--Five of last six Hernandez starts stayed under.
Interleague
•Twins-Rockies - 8:40 PM
--Johnson threw 4.1 shutout innings (106 PT) in his only start May 1.
--De La Rosa is 3-0, 5.21 in his last three starts; Rockies scored 28 runs.
--Twins won four of their last five road games.
--Colorado is 4-9 in last 13 home games, but won last two.
--Under is 5-1-1 in last seven games at Coors Field.
•Teams' Record When This Starting Pitcher Starts
-- Wood 4-6; Arrieta 8-4
-- Zimmerman 11-7; Burnett 9-10 (0-3 last 3)
-- Locke 5-2 (5-0 last 5); Latos 2-3
-- Alvarez 13-5 (won last 10); Wheeler 7-11
-- Kelly 1-2; Gallardo 9-9 (0-3 last 3)
-- Hahn 4-2; Haren 10-8
-- Bolsinger 1-7; Lincecum 11-7
-- Noesi 6-7 (1-4 last 5); Kluber 11-8
-- Kuroda 8-10 (3-1 last 4); Gonzalez 6-8
-- Buehrle 12-6 (1-5 last 6); Archer 9-9
-- Lackey 10-8; Feldman 6-9
-- Sanchez 8-7 (4-1 last 5); Duffy 5-7
-- Samardzija (Chi 3-14/A's 1-0); Hernandez 13-6
-- Richards 14-4 (won last 7); Tepesch 4-5
-- Johnson 0-1; De La Rosa 11-6
•Incredible Stat of the Day
Rockies pitcher Jorge De La Rosa is 25-4 his last twenty-nine home team starts, and 12-2 home in his career team stars during July. De La Rosa went 2-2 with an 8.03 ERA over his previous five starts before giving up two runs and three hits in six innings of Saturday's 8-7 win over the Los Angeles Dodgers. The left-hander will get his first look at Minnesota since 2007 while opposing Kris Johnson in this contest.
Diamond Trends - Friday
•COLORADO is 1-16 (-19.7 Units) against the money line versus American League teams scoring 4.2 or less runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was COLORADO 3.3, OPPONENT 6.5.
•DETROIT is 17-4 OVER (+12.5 Units) versus good defensive catchers - allowing 0.5 or less SB's/game this season.
The average score was DETROIT 5.3, OPPONENT 5.3.
•TAMPA BAY is 11-29 (-20.4 Units) against the run line versus poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game this season.
The average score was TAMPA BAY 3.1, OPPONENT 4.4.
•DAN HAREN is 5-16 (-16.0 Units) against the money line versus teams outscored by opponent by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was HAREN 3.5, OPPONENT 5.2.
•HIROKI KURODA is 19-3 UNDER (+15.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was KURODA 2.8, OPPONENT 3.5.
•FELIX HERNANDEZ is 12-3 (+11.4 Units) against the run line versus an American League team with they batting average of .265 or worse this season.
The average score was HERNANDEZ 5.5, OPPONENT 2.7.
Situation Analysis of The Day
•Play On - All favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 (CLEVELAND) - below average hitting team (AVG <=.265) against a good starting pitcher (ERA <=4.20) - American League, with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.100 over his last 10 games.
(43-4 since 1997.) (91.5%, +35.6 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -185
The average score in these games was: Team 6.3, Opponent 2.6 (Average run differential = +3.7)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0, +2 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (6-1, +4.2 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (18-2, +14.4 units).
•Play Against - All teams against a run line of (+1.5, -155) to (-1.5, +135) (BOSTON) - poor American League hitting team (AVG <=.260) against a team with a bad bullpen (ERA >=5.00), cold hitting team - batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games.
(54-11 over the last 5 seasons.) (83.1%, +38.7 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (42-23 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average run line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 1.3, money line price: -139
The average score in these games was: Team 5.5, Opponent 4.1 (Average run differential = +1.4)
The number of games in which this system covered the run line by 1 or more runs was 41 (63.1% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (12-1, +10.8 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (24-3, +20 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (160-98, +10.7 units).
•Play Over - All teams where the total is 9 to 9.5 (BOSTON) - below average hitting team (AVG <=.265) against a good starting pitcher (ERA <=4.20) - American League, with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better on the season-AL.
(90-42 over the last 5 seasons.) (68.2%, +47.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 9.1, Money Line=-101.9
The average score in these games was: Team 5.3, Opponent 5.5 (Total runs scored = 10.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 1 or more runs was 74 (53.2% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (17-7, +10.2 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (54-27, +26.5 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (229-210, +12 units).
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