Jason Storm
Free Pick Run is a Documented 93-48-1 Overall Record
Free Pick: Marlins +155 Listed Pitchers
Sometimes you got to throw the season stats out the window and ask what have you done for me lately.
Alexi Ogando started off his first season as a starting pitcher better than anyone imagine. He started the season 7-0 and with an ERA at 2.10. In his first 12 starts, he had 10 quality outings. That's all very impressive but lately he hasn't been nearly as good. In his last 3 games, he is 0-3 with a ERA around 9 and a WHIP above 2. These numbers are not just bad they are awful, which raises an interesting question. What is wrong with Ogando?
I believe I know the answer. Lets go back to the beginning of Ogando's career. When he first started in the minor leagues, he wasn't a pitcher. He was a hitter and everyday player. In 2006, he made the switch and had instant success. In his first year pitching, he went 5-0 with an ERA of 0.52. The success continued throughout the different ranks of the minor league. When it was all said and done, Ogando spent 4 seasons in the minor leagues compiling a 11-3 record, an ERA of 1.73, a WHIP under 1 and spectacular strikeout to walk numbers.
In 2010 he was called up to the majors as a relief pitcher and his success continued in the pros. Last season in 41 innings of relief work, Ogando had an ERA of 1.30 and dominated major league hitters, holding them to a BAA of .208. It's clear this guy can pitch. This season they made him a starter, and again he had great success. Like I mentioned in his first 12 starts, he was 7-0 with an ERA of 2.10. Obviously he has the tools and ability to be successful, so the question remains: What is wrong with Ogando? The answer is he has a dead arm. Now this isn't something that's been released by the Rangers, but it fits. Let me explain.
Ogando has pitched 91 innings this season. That mark is already a career high at any level. Before that, his highest was last season when he threw 72 IP between the minors and majors spread out through an entire season. Let me put this in perspective, in his 4 seasons in the minor leagues, he threw 112 innings total. That's over 4 years! In 3 months, he has pitched 91 innings. Remember this guy hasn't been a pitcher his entire life. He hasn't been building stamina throughout the years. His body is not use to this and now its shutting down.
His arm is dead and needs to be rested. It's not going to magically get better. He is not himself right now. In his last 3 starts, he has 5 combined strikeouts. In his previous 12 starts, he averaged 5 strikeouts per game. He those same 3 starts, he has allowed 10 earned runs. In his previous 12 starts, he allowed a combined 17 ER and that's over 82 IPs. In his last 3 starts, he has averaged less than 3 innings per outing. This isn't the same Ogando.
If this was the same Ogando, the Rangers being a -165 favorite would make sense. But Ogando isn't himself. That line is very inflated. To top it off, his counterpart will be the Marlins best pitcher right now in Anibal Sanchez. Sanchez has a 1.8 ERA in his last 3 starts. He has had a terrific season on a not so good team. I do think the Marlins can score enough runs off an injured Ogando to put this game away early. We are taking the big inflated underdog.