Service Plays Friday 7/1/11

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

WNBA Basketball Picks

Seattle at Connecticut

The Sun look to take advantage of a Seattle team that is 2-7 ATS in the last 9 meetings between the two teams. Connecticut is the pick (- 4 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Sun favored by 6 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (-4 1/2). Here are all of today's picks.
<table cellpadding="4" cellspacing="4"><tbody><tr> <td style="height: 12.75pt; width: 206pt;" width="274" height="17">FRIDAY, JULY 1
Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST</td> </tr> <tr> <td style="height: 12.75pt;" width="564" height="17">Game 601-602: San Antonio at New York (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 113.279; New York 113.622
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 168
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 2; 164 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New York (+2); Over</td> </tr> <tr> <td style="height: 12.75pt;" width="564" height="17">Game 603-604: Seattle at Connecticut (7:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 111.471; Connecticut 118.023
Dunkel Line & Total: Connecticut by 6 1/2; 144
Vegas Line & Total: Connecticut by 4 1/2; 149 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (-4 1/2); Under</td> </tr> <tr> <td style="height: 12.75pt;" width="564" height="17">Game 605-606: Chicago at Phoenix (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 111.464; Phoenix 113.357
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 2; 171
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 5 1/2; 175
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+5 1/2); Under</td> </tr> <tr> <td style="height: 5px;" width="566">
</td></tr></tbody></table>

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Baseball Crusher
Play of the Day:

Nationals -140 over Pirates

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Soccer Crusher
Play of the Day:

Boa + Salgueiro UNDER 2.5
This match is happening in Brazil

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sportsbook Investing
Play of the Day:

Nationals -140 over Pirates

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

ultimate

is passing

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Baseball Prophet

Marlins/Rangers over 8.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Insider Sports Report

4* Chicago White Sox (Jackson) -115 over Chicago Cubs (Wells)
Range: +100 to -135

3* Cleveland (Masterson)/Cincinnati (Arroyo) UNDER 9
Range: 9.5 to 8.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Vegas wise guy


Milwaukee(Gallardo) @ Twins(Liriano): Minnesota +106

Again, I always look for a way to back a home underdog and in this spot, there are ingredients which tell me to do just that. First, and most glaring, is the Brewers 15-27 road record. They are coming into this series losers of 3 in a row after getting swept at Yankee Stadium. Secondly, we have a revenge situation between these two pitchers. Gallardo was masterful in beating Liriano just last Saturday in Milwaukee 11-1, a game where Liriano got absolutely pounded. Pundents will point to Liriano’s less than stellar home success and ask how I could possibly back a guy with those horrible home numbers. Well, advanced stats give me the answer. Liriano has a .338 BABIP on his home field indicating that he has been a tremendously unlucky pitcher in his home park. His Home ERA is a whopping 7.62. Yet when we look at his advanced ERA’s, it paints an entirely different story. Yes he does have a 1.42 WHIP. But his xFIP is a remarkable 3.12 at home, his tERA is a measly 2.75, and his QERA is a very good 3.59. Lets compare those advanced stats to Gallardo when he pitches on the road. Gallardo, like Liriano, has been unlucky on the road with a .328 BABIP. He also has a high 1.51 WHIP. He also has a remarkable 3.3 xFIP. But his tERA of 4.39 and his 3.78 QERA are higher than Liriano. I would argue that based on advanced statistics, Liriano is JUST AS GOOD AS Gallardo. Recreational bettors will look at that 11-1 thrashing the Twins took last Saturday, and for that matter the entire series because the Twins got swept by the Brewers. So, we have starting pitching revenge as well as team revenge entering this series, subjective factors that are extremely important in EVERY sport you care to invest in. Also, since H/A Offensive Power Ratings are within 5% of each other when looking at these teams, I would argue that the subjective factors are most important here. Consider this as well before you fade this Twins team off into the sunset for the rest of this season: As bad as this team has been and with the terrible start they had, they sit just 8.5 games out of the lead in the AL Central. This team will be extremely motivated from now up until the All Star break to position themselves for a second half run in this division, a run that noone including myself, deemed possible about 4 weeks ago.

Take Minnesota +106

LA Dodgers(Kuroda) @ LA Angels(Chatwood): LA Angels -107

Same situation as the Brewers/Twins game. You have pitching revenge and team revenge. Chatwood beat Kuroda last weekend and the Angels took 2 of 3 from the Dodgers. So, I should be backing the Dodgers right? Nope, I am grabbing the Halos here at a bargain price. This Dodger team has all kinds of turmoil in their organization. They filed bankruptcy last week. They sit in last place in the NL West. This team just shows absolutely no motivation to speak of. They beat the Twins 15-0 early this week, then followed that up with 2 nonchalent losses to them. Also factor in that the Angels just own this Dodger team. While Kuroda has been great, the Dodgers for whatever reason just do not hit when he is on the mound. Kuroda hasn’t won a game in nearly 6 weeks. Chatwood, on the other hand, is seemingly turning the corner after each start. He has allowed just one earned run in his last 14 innings of work and has gone at least 7 innings in 4 of his last 5 starts. But I believe this game, nor this series, will be about pitching. It will be about one team being in a pennant race and the other planning off season golfing vacations. And with each passing day, there is nothing that the Halos would rather do than put nails in their SoCal rivals coffin.

Take LA Angels -107

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CAPPERS ACCESS

W.Sox
D'Backs

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

JOE WIZ DAILY FREE PICK

Under 7 runs bet. Seattle and San Diego

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB
Write-Up


Friday, July 1

Remember as interleague play starts, there are DHs used in games in the American League ballparks; pitchers bat in National League parks.

AL teams are 106-102 vs NL teams so far in interleague play.
Over is 44-46-9 with a DH, 43-60-7 without one, 87-106-15 overall.

Hot pitchers
-- Romero is 2-1, 1.13 in his last three starts. Kendrick has a 3.21 RA in his last three starts.
-- EJackson has a 2.81 RA in his last four starts.
-- Bumgarner is 3-0, 2.11 in his last three road starts.
-- Masterson has a 3.12 RA in his last four starts, but no wins in his last ten outings. Reds won last three Arroyo starts (3-0, 4.09) scoring 18 runs.
-- Niese is 4-1, 3.11 in his last six starts; he did have an issue in his last start with a rapid heartbeat, but was checked out and is OK. Bronx won last four Nova starts (3-0, 3.71).
-- WDavis is 3-0, 3.32 in his last three starts. Westbrook is 2-0, 1.83 in his last five starts.
-- Jurrjens is 2-0, 1.59 in his last couple starts.
-- Norris has a 1.73 RA in his last four starts.
-- ASanchez is 0-0, 1.80 in his last three starts.
-- Chatwood is 2-0, 0.64 in his last two starts. Kuroda has a 2.63 RA in his last four starts, but is winless in his last seven outings, with LA giving him total of 11 runs.
-- Vargas is 2-1, 1.80 in his last three starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Washington lost last five Gorzelanny starts (0-3, 6.33). Morton is 1-2, 13.91 in his last three starts.
-- Wells is 0-2, 7.50 in his last six starts.
-- Penny is 0-2, 4.30 in his last four starts.
-- Guthrie is 1-3, 5.65 in his last seven starts.
-- Gallardo is 1-2, 6.00 in his last four starts. Liriano is 1-2, 4.18 in his last four outings.
-- Wakefield is 2-2, 5.13 in his last four starts.
-- Ogando is 0-3, 13.50 in his last three starts.
-- Nicasio has a 6.86 RA in his last four starts. Duffy is 1-2, 4.83 in his last six outings.
-- Collmenter is 0-3, 7.00 in his last three starts.
-- Moseley is 0-1, 4.76 in his last three starts.

Totals
-- Five of Pirates' last six road games stayed under the total.
-- Phillies' last six games stayed under the total.
-- Six of last eight White Sox road games stayed under total.
-- Under is 6-1-2 in last nine San Francisco road games.
-- Six of last seven Cincinnati home games stayed under total.
-- Four of Mets' last five games went over the total.
-- Over is 4-1-1 in Cardinals' last six road games.
-- Last four Atlanta home games stayed under the total.
-- Eight of last nine Boston road games stayed under the total.
-- Six of last seven Florida road games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 11-5 in last sixteen games at Coors field.
-- Eight of last twelve Milwaukee road games went over the total.
-- Four of last five Oakland home games stayed under the total.
-- Six of last seven Dodger road games went over the total.
-- Over is 4-1-1 in San Diego's last six road games.

Hot Teams
-- Pittsburgh won six of its last eight games.
-- Phillies won six of their last nine games.
-- White Sox won four of their last five road games.
-- Giants won seven of last nine games, but lost last two, scoring a total of three runs. Detroit is 12-6 in its last 18 home games.
-- Bronx won its last five games, scoring 36 runs. Mets won six of their last eight games.
-- Cardinals won their last three games, scoring 20 runs. Tampa Bay won five of its last seven games.
-- Braves won eight of their last ten games.
-- Minnesota won nine of its last ten home games.
-- Angels won six of their last seven games.
-- Padres won their last four games, allowing six runs.

Cold Teams
-- Washington lost its last three games, scoring eight runs.
-- Toronto lost three of its last four games.
-- Cubs lost six of their last nine games overall, 13 of 17 on road.
-- Cincinnati lost five of its last seven home games. Indians are 4-9 in their last thirteen road games.
-- Orioles lost 12 of their last 16 road games.
-- Astros lost eight of their last nine home games. Red Sox lost six of their last eight games overall. Texas lost three of last four home games.
-- Brewers lost eight of their last ten road games.
-- Marlins lost 11 of their last 14 road games, but won last two.
-- Colorado lost five of its last six games. Royals lost seven of their last eight road games.
-- Arizona lost four of its last five games.
-- Oakland lost six of its last eight games.
-- Dodgers lost five of their last seven games.
-- Mariners lost seven of their last nine games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Free Silver Key Pick for Friday ML Baseball

ATLANTA JURRJENS -R -165 over Baltimore

 

[tinfw17]

Sports Wagers aka Randall the Handle




Pittsburgh +125 over WASHINGTON Pinnacle
If nothing else, the Nats are an interesting team to pay attention to. They’re streaky as hell, their manager just walked out on them, they have some outstanding young talent in Danny Espinoza, Michael Morse, Jordan Zimmerman and Stephen Strasburgh (on DL) among others, yet they’re a pretty ugly favorite to bet on and you can double that when they’re going bad like they are now. Davey Johnson is 0-3 since taking over for Riggleman, who should’ve left some Wiggleroom. Over its last eight games, Washington is batting .197 and at one point last week they went 32 straight innings without scoring a run against the opposition’s starting pitcher. Throw out the 9-5 extra inning game against the White Sox in which the Nats scored no runs going to the eighth inning and this team has scored 13 runs in seven games and overall, the Nats have been held to two runs or less in five of its last eight games. By contrast, the Bucs are hitting .275 over that same eight-game stretch. They’ve won six of eight and that’s with a whole slew of regulars on the rack. They might be getting some healthy bodies back tonight but regardless of that, the Pirates are feeling a whole lot better than the Nats. Charlie Morton vs Tom Gorzelanny is an intriguing matchup because they’re so similar. Both have had some surprisingly outstanding starts and both have imploded too. Morton has had some extra days rest leading up to this one due to “fatigue” but don’t buy that. He needed to get his head on straight after a couple of rough starts. Anyway, let’s call the pitching match-up a wash, although we prefer Morton over Gorzelanny all day. Give the Pirates a big edge at the plate, in momentum and most importantly, in value. Play: Pittsburgh +125 (Risking 2 units).

Kansas City +150 over COLORADO Pinnacle
Danny Duffy doesn’t have the greatest surface stats and he’s a long way off from being an upper echelon chucker but there are some good signs that he’s settling in. The first thing you might notice about him is the 23 walks he’s issued in just 41 innings and at this park walking folks is not good strategy. However, Duffy had absolutely elite command in the minors the past two years and he’s only walked two batters over his last two starts. Duffy has considerable talent and he’s more relaxed out there now than when he first came up. He’s still whiffed 31 in 41 innings and he’ll be facing a Rockies team that has scored four runs or less in nine straight games. We mentioned last time Juan Nicasio pitched against the Yankees that he’s a hard throwing rightie that doesn’t do much of anything else but throw hard. It’s fastball after fastball after fastball and most of them are right down the heart of the dish. The Royals have been one of the most consistently good offenses in the league. They lose more than they win because they don’t have a single front line starter, not because of a lack of offense. The Royals are coming off a three game sweep in San Diego and have now lost nine of 12. However, the Rockies are also cold, having lost five of six and in this game, we prefer Duffy over Nicasio and the Royals offense over the laboring Rockies. Throw in this sweet tag and it seals the deal. Play: Kansas City +150 (Risking 2 units).

Florida +154 over TEXAS Pinnacle
The Marlins offense has been in neutral for almost a month but winning the past two games in Oakland and scoring eight times might just get them going. Alexi Ogando is a converted outfielder that came up in June last season and has been dealing it ever since...well, sort of. This is a guy that’s never pitched more than 85 innings in a single season and this year he’s already up to 90. Remember, those 80 or so innings he’s pitched before came over the course of a whole year while the 91 he’s thrown already this year has come over a half a season. It’s no mystery as to why he’s been absolutely rocked in three straight starts and it’s not likely to get better. Ron Washington would put a dying dog out there if he thought it could help him win a ball game and has been known to burn out pitchers before. Over his last three starts, Ogando has whiffed just five batters and that’s another sign of a guy running on fumes. His confidence is also shot and we also see the decline in his GB/LD/FB profile, which has gone from acceptable to an unacceptable 35%/26%/39% over the past month. Meanwhile, Anibal Sanchez is ready to join the elite. He’s the only pitcher in the najors since ’06 to throw a no-hitter and two one-hitters. At just 27 years of age, Sanchez is thriving on a low-90s fastball with a nasty slider and change that he can throw with confidence regardless of the count. Sanchez has a four-year decline in WHIP and his xERA is also trending the right way, He’s struck out 107 batters in 105 innings while walking just 29. Put it all together and what we have is a pitcher that is ready to be included in any conversation about elite starting pitchers in the league. Big overlay. Play: Florida +154 (Risking 2 units).

 

[tinfw17]

RAS

602 San Antonio/New York under 164

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

FANTASY SPORTS GAMETIME

MLB Baseball Friday
Play Atlanta (-165) over Baltimore (Top Play of the Day)
Starts at 7:30 PM EST

Baltimore has lost 6 of the last 8 games and they have also lost 39 of the last 53 games after allowing nine runs or more in their last game. Baltimore has lost 16 of the last 20 road games when the total posted is between 7 and 7.5 runs and they have also lost 15 of the last 22 games as an underdog of +125 to +175.

Play Texas (-165) over Florida (Top Play of the Day)
Starts at 8:00 PM EST

Florida has lost 7 of the last 9 games as an underdog of +150 or higher and they have also lost 7 of the last 10 road games when the total posted is between 8.5 and 10 runs. Texas pitcher, Alexi Ogando has won 5 of the last 6 games as a favorite of -150 or higher and he is 5-1 in home games this season with an ERA of 2.34.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Play Toronto (-155) over Philadelphia (Bonus)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPORTS PROFIT

$100 on Philadelphia Phillies UNDER 9 Please list Romero and Kendrick.
$100 on Baltimore Orioles UNDER 7.5 Please list Jurrjens and Guthrie
$100 on Boston Red Sox UNDER 9 Please list Norris and Wakefield.
$100 on San Diego Padres UNDER 6.5 Please list Vargas and Moseley

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Benjamin lee Eckstein

"Mr Chalk" 2011 MLB Regular Season

Ben lee lost on Wednesday with the Mariners -$142/Braves and had Np on Thursday.

For Friday "Mr Chalk" likes the early game, the Blue Jays -$152/Phillies.

"Mr Chalk" is 50-38 -$1061 for the 2011 MLB regular season.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Keith Glantz

50* MLB Seattle Mariners
100* MLB Cincinnati Reds.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

JIMMY BOYD

5* Friday MLB BEST BET
Detroit Tigers ML

3* MLB Crunch Time Bailout
Arizona Diamondbacks ML

3* In-state Rivalry Interleague SMASH!
Cincinnati Reds ML

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

JR Tips

angels ml
red sox und
orioles ml