STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT
FRIDAY, JUNE 6TH 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Friday, 6/6/14 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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MLB Betting News and Notes - Week #10
•Twins A Great Bet With Hughes Starting: Phil Hughes' comeback season with the Minnesota Twins has been nothing short of spectacular so far, evidenced by his 6-1 record and 3.12 ERA. The former Yankee managed just four wins in 29 starts last year with The Bronx Bombers. Minnesota takes on the Houston Astros (8:10 PM EST) Friday evening and are riding a high with Hughes on the mound: The Twins are 8-0 in his last eight starts. Dallas Keuchel will counter for the Astros (6-3, 2.70 ERA). Minnesota is presently -116 favorites.
•Orioles Cashing In As Home Dogs With Chen On Mound: The Oakland A's and the Baltimore Orioles renew acquaintances at Oriole Park at Camden Yards Friday, and early odds are suggesting the opening game is a tossup. With both teams playing great baseball as of late, the moneyline for the matchup is currently a pick 'em at -104. Tommy Milone gets the ball for the Athletics while the Orioles will counter with Wei-Yin Chen. If the line moves The Birds to underdog status, keep this in mind: Baltimore is 7-0 in Chen's last seven starts as home dogs.
•Trends Say Tigers Losing Streak Likely To Continue: What has happened to the Detroit Tigers? Losers of five straight, Detroit begins their three-game series against the Boston Red Sox at Comerica Park Friday night (7:05 PM EST) but recent trends are pointing to the headaches to continue for Tigers bettors. Drew Smyly takes the mound for Detroit, which doesn't bode well for their chances: the Tigers are just 2-8 in his last 10 outings. Rubby De La Rosa gets his second start of the season for the Red Sox. The Tigers are currently -121 favorites for the matchup.
•Astros Select High School LHP Aiken First Overall: Becoming the first team to make the first overall pick a third consecutive year, the Houston Astros chose left-hander Brady Aiken to open the baseball draft Thursday. Aiken, from Cathedral Catholic High School in San Diego, is a 6-foot-4, 205-pounder who is committed to UCLA. Considered advanced relative to the command of his three-pitch repertoire given his age, 17, Aiken features a fastball that touches 94 mph in addition to an exceptional breaking ball and changeup. He drew comparisons to both Dodgers left-hander Clayton Kershaw and Phillies lefty Cole Hamels. Aiken told MLB Network he models his game after Tampa Bay Rays left-hander David Price.
Thursday's MLB Roundup
-- Carlos Beltran was back in the New York Yankees' lineup Thursday, activated from the disabled list before the matinee with the Oakland Athletics. Beltran returned from an elbow injury that landed him on the 15-day disabled list. To create room on the roster, the Yankees designated utility man Scott Sizemore for assignment. Beltran is not 100 percent. He is still experiencing some soreness in his elbow and bone chips are likely to be a problem all season, he said Thursday morning. Beltran, 36, signed a three-year, $45 million contract with the Yankees as a free agent on Dec. 6.
-- Angels designated hitter Mike Trout returned to the lineup after sitting out Wednesday night with back inflammation. Trout missed two games last weekend and departed in the second inning Tuesday night with mid-back discomfort, but after a rigorous workout Thursday was declared fit to play. A determination on when Trout returns to the field was to be made based upon a postgame evaluation.
-- Toronto Blue Jays first baseman Edwin Encarnacion missed Thursday's game against Detroit with back stiffness. Encarnacion, who is second in the American League with 19 home runs, felt tightness during the late innings of the Blue Jays' 8-2 victory over Detroit on Wednesday night. Manager John Gibbons is hopeful Encarnacion can return on Friday against St. Louis.
-- Detroit Tigers rookie shortstop Eugenio Suarez had his first major league start delayed by a sore left knee. Suarez, 22, was promoted from Triple A Toledo on Wednesday and expected to be in the lineup Thursday. He injured himself sliding into second base while playing the final three innings Wednesday. Suarez underwent an MRI which showed no structural damage.
-- Cincinnati Reds right-hander Mat Latos left his third Triple-A rehab start in the fifth inning on Wednesday with cramping in his calf. Reds manager Bryan Price said it wasn't deemed serious and Latos was to be evaluated further in Cincinnati on Thursday.
-- The Texas Rangers activated right-hander Tanner Scheppers from the disabled list before the game and announced that right-hander Alexi Ogando will not pitch for three weeks. An MRI showed "acute inflammation" and "existing wear and tear" in Ogando's right elbow.
-- The New York Mets officially recalled outfielder Andrew Brown from Triple-A Las Vegas on Thursday. He hit .359 with 12 doubles, 13 home runs and 36 games in the minors. In turn, New York designated right-hander Buddy Carlyle for assignment.
-- The Chicago Cubs officially announced a seven-year agreement that moves radio broadcasts from longtime home WGN-AM to WBBM-AM beginning in 2015. The deal also includes promotional initiatives across seven CBS stations in Chicago.
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Betting Notes - Friday
•Hot Pitchers
-- Hammel is 2-1, 1.96 in his last three starts. Eovaldi is 2-0, 3.10 in his last three outings.
-- Hamels is 1-1, 2.83 in his last five starts.
-- Lohse is 3-0, 2.35 in his last four starts.
-- Ryu is 3-0, 3.26 in his last three starts.
-- Teheran is 3-0, 0.81 in his last three starts.
-- Ross is 3-1, 2.81 in his last five starts. Roark has a 2.48 RA in his last five.
-- Mets won last three Niese starts (1-0, 3.05).
-- Milone is 3-0, 1.67 in his last five starts. Chen is 3-0, 4.30 in his last five.
-- De La Rosa won his first '14 start, throwing seven shutout innings.
-- Young is 2-0, 2.19 in his last two starts.
-- Darvish is 4-1, 1.66 in his last five starts.
-- Whitley is 0-0, 2.37 in four starts. Guthrie has a 1.80 RA in his last three starts; Royals were shut out in three of his last four starts.
-- Minnesota won last eight Hughes starts (6-0, 2.31). Keuchel is 4-1, 1.79 in his last five starts.
-- Stroman won his first MLB start, allowing one run in six IP.
•Cold Pitchers
-- Cumpton is 0-2, 7.66 in four starts this season.
-- Cueto is 1-2, 5.68 in his last three starts.
-- Butler is making first MLB start; he was 4-4, 2.49 in 11 AAA starts.
-- McCarthy is 0-2, 5.97 in his last five starts.
-- Cain had a 5.40 RA in his last four starts before going on DL.
-- Smyly is 0-2, 7.71 in his last three starts.
-- Bedard is 0-3, 9.00 in his last three starts.
-- Bauer is 1-2, 4.03 in four starts this season.
-- Weaver is 1-1, 6.75 in his last two starts. Rienzo is 0-2, 8.64 in his last two.
-- Lynn is 2-2, 4.31 in his last five starts.
•Totals
-- Five of last six Cub games went over total.
-- Over is 4-1-1 in last six Milwaukee road games.
-- Under is 5-2-1 in last eight Cincinnati games.
-- Seven of last nine Colorado games went over.
-- Under is 17-7 in Arizona's last 24 games.
-- Five of last six San Diego games stayed under.
-- Five of Mets' last seven games went over total.
-- 13 of last 17 Baltimore games went over total.
-- Seven of last eight Boston games stayed under; six of last seven Detroit home games went over.
-- Last four Tampa Bay home games went over.
-- Last four Cleveland road games stayed under. Six of last seven Texas games went over the total.
-- Under is 14-6-1 in last 21 Yankees games.
-- Three of last four Houston games went over total.
-- Eight of last nine White Sox games stayed under; six of last seven Angel tilts went over.
-- Over is 10-5-1 in last sixteen St Louis games.
•Hot Teams
-- Marlins won six of its last seven road games; Chicago won six of their last seven home games.
-- Pirates won four of last five home games. Milwaukee won six of its last nine games overall.
-- Diamondbacks won its last three games, scoring 32 runs.
-- Nationals won five of its last six games.
-- Giants won seven of their last nine games.
-- Orioles won four of their last five games.
-- Mariners won five of their last six games.
-- Indians won its last six games, but lost five of last six on road.
-- Astros won their last five road games.
-- White Sox won six of their last nine games.
-- Blue Jays won 17 of its last 20 games.
•Cold Teams
-- Phillies lost six in a row. Cincinnati lost four of its last five home games.
-- Rockies lost its last seven games. Los Angeles lost five of last seven.
-- Braves lost six of their last nine games.
-- Padres are 6-10 in its last sixteen games.
-- Mets lost their last three games.
-- Tigers lost six of last eight at home. Boston lost their last three games.
-- Rays lost its last ten games.
-- Royals lost four of its last five home games. New York lost four of its last five games.
-- Twins lost nine of its last thirteen games.
-- Angels lost five of their last six games.
-- Cardinals lost seven of their last nine games.
Diamond Trends - Friday
•KANSAS CITY is 27-9 (+18.4 Units) against the money line with an on base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 15 games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was KANSAS CITY 4.7, OPPONENT 2.8.
•TORONTO is 24-8 OVER (+15.6 Units) in home games versus an average bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 to 4.50 over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TORONTO 4.9, OPPONENT 6.5.
•MIAMI is 39-12 (+24.7 Units) against the run line versus a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MIAMI 3.8, OPPONENT 3.6.
•BRANDON MCCARTHY is 6-18 (-15.4 Units) against the money line versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MCCARTHY 3.0, OPPONENT 4.8.
•JUAN NICASIO is 14-2 OVER (+12.1 Units) in home games versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was NICASIO 7.5, OPPONENT 5.7.
•KYLE LOHSE is 22-6 (+19.8 Units) against the run line versus an National League team with they batting average of .255 or worse over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was LOHSE 4.4, OPPONENT 2.6.
Situation Analysis of The Day
•Play Against - Road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (HOUSTON) - below average hitting team (AVG <=.265) against an excellent starting pitcher (ERA <=3.20) -American League, with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.100 over his last 10 games.
(43-12 over the last 5 seasons.) (78.2%, +29.2 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -115.4
The average score in these games was: Team 5.1, Opponent 3.4 (Average run differential = +1.7)
The situation's record this season is: (2-1, +1.2 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (17-6, +9.8 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (53-21, +27.8 units).
•Play Against - All teams against a run line of (+1.5, -155) to (-1.5, +135) (SAN DIEGO) - below average hitting team (AVG <=.255) against a good starting pitcher (ERA <=3.70) -National League, with an excellent bullpen whose WHIP is 1.150 or better on the season.
(65-18 over the last 5 seasons.) (78.3%, +39.4 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (46-37 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average run line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 1.3, money line price: -142
The average score in these games was: Team 4, Opponent 3.6 (Average run differential = +0.5)
The number of games in which this system covered the run line by 1 or more runs was 43 (51.8% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (12-3, +7.6 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (42-13, +23 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (93-55, +9.9 units).
•Play Over - Road teams where the total is 8 to 8.5 (NY YANKEES) - poor American League power team (<=0.9 HR's/game) against a starting pitcher who gives up 1 or more HR's/start, with an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game.
(82-40 since 1997.) (67.2%, +40.5 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 8.3, Money Line=-103.8
The average score in these games was: Team 4.8, Opponent 5.3 (Total runs scored = 10.2)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 1 or more runs was 63 (51.2% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-2, +0.1 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (16-6, +10.3 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (26-10, +15.9 units).
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w-thumbs!^
