STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT
FRIDAY, JUNE 20TH 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Friday, 6/20/14 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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MLB Betting News and Notes - Week #12
•Rays' DeJesus On DL With Broken Hand: The Tampa Bay Rays have placed outfielder David DeJesus on the 15-day disabled list with a broken left hand. The Rays also activated outfielder Brandon Guyer, who had been sidelined by a broken left thumb, from the 15-day DL in moves made before Thursday night's game against Houston. DeJesus was hurt on a check-swing in Wednesday's game against Baltimore. One day earlier, he ran hard into the left-field wall chasing a grand slam hit by Orioles' slugger Chris Davis. DeJesus says "you can go run full steam into a wall and not be hurt, and then something I do every day you take for granted sometimes (you get hurt)." DeJesus expects to be in a cast for three weeks. He will undergo additional tests to determine how long he will be out.
•Arizona Brings Up Stites From Minors: The Arizona Diamondbacks have selected right-hander pitcher Matt Stites from Triple-A Reno, optioned outfielder Tony Campana and transferred right-hander Daniel Hudson to the 60-day disabled list. The 24-year-old Stites is making his majors debut after going 0-1 with 15 saves and a 2.89 ERA in 29 games between Double-A Mobile and Reno this season. He didn't allow an earned run in his first 11 appearances - a span of 10 2-3 innings - and converted all 12 of his save opportunities since being promoted to Reno on May 6. Campana hit .150 in 26 games with Arizona and had his first career walk-off hit with a single in Wednesday night's 4-3 win over Milwaukee. Hudson had Tommy John surgery for the second time in 2013.
•MLB, Players' Union Team In Puerto Rico: Major League Baseball and the players' union said Thursday they are teaming to launch a new summer league in Puerto Rico to give island teenagers more chances to stay on the field during the school break. The Puerto Rico Summer League is the latest move in efforts by the MLB and the players' union to support youth baseball on the U.S. Caribbean island that has produced a long line of greats including Roberto Clemente and Orlando Cepeda. But the numbers of local players making it to the big leagues has steadily diminished in recent years. There were 11 Puerto Rican players on opening day rosters this season. In 2005, there were 34.
That's why the summer league for youngsters aged 14-17 can make a big difference, according to MLB Chief Operating Officer Rob Manfred. "We all know that Puerto Rico has a great baseball tradition. We also know that great traditions need to be tended or else they deteriorate," he said at a press conference at a San Juan hotel. The league will have two four-team divisions and will run for eight weeks in June and July in the San Juan suburb of Guaynabo and the western city of Mayaguez. Players were selected through tryouts throughout the Caribbean island.
The MLB has stepped up its drive to stop a slide in Puerto Rico's production of major leaguers through a range of initiatives including player showcases and an intensive after-school training program. It has also been a long supporter of the Puerto Rico Baseball Academy, whose graduates include slugging shortstop Carlos Correa, the No. 1 draft pick in 2012. The MLB and union officials acknowledged that the summer league and other programs won't send the number of Puerto Rican in the big leagues surging overnight. "Development takes time. We believe we have laid a solid foundation," said Kim Ng, MLB's vice president of baseball operations.
--San Diego Padres pitcher Ian Kennedy has been an poor play this season, bad enough to rank him in the bottom 20 money pitchers in baseball at $-508. Kennedy and the Padres face off against Dan Haren and their interstate rival Los Angeles Dodgers Friday at PETCO Park. San Diego is currently -106 faves.
--If you've been backing the Kansas City Royals with James Shields on the hill this season, you already know just how good of a play he's been. As of Thursday, Shields is the ninth-best money pitcher in baseball at +$634. Shields and the red-hot Royals host the Seattle Mariners Friday. Kansas City is currently -117 faves for the matchup.
--The Baltimore Orioles are struggling mightily with Ubaldo Jimenez on the hill, going just 1-6 in his last seven starts. That's a trend worth paying attention to when Jimenez gets the ball Friday versus the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium. New York is currently -123 faves for the American League East matchup.
--The Cleveland Indians have been dominant as of late with right-hander Corey Kluber on the mound, going 7-1 in his last eight assignments. Kluber will take the hill Friday evening against the Detroit Tigers. Right-hander Rick Porcello gets the start for the Tigers. The Tribe are currently -125 faves.
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Betting Notes - Friday
National League
•Pirates- Cubs - 4:05 PM
--Morton is 3-0, 2.37 in his last three starts.
--Jackson is 0-4, 9.00 in his last five starts.
--Pirates lost three of their last four games, but won six of last nine on road.
--Cubs won eight of their last ten home games.
--Four of last five Jackson starts went over the total.
•Braves-Nationals - 7:05 PM
--Minor is 0-2, 4.91 in his last five starts.
--Strasburg is 3-1, 3.51 in his last four starts.
--Braves lost six of their last nine games.
--Washington won five of its last six home games.
--Over is 5-2-1 in last eight Atlanta games.
•Mets-Marlins - 7:10 PM
--Matsuzaka is 2-0, 3.64 in four starts for the Mets.
--Miami won last five Alvarez starts (1-0, 1.08).
--Mets lost eight of their last ten road games, but won last two.
--Marlins lost nine of their last thirteen home games.
--Under is 6-2-1 in New York's last nine games.
•Phillies-Cardinals - 8:15 PM
--Burnett is 1-3, 6.11 in his last five starts.
--Garcia is 2-0, 0.64 in his last couple starts.
--Philly won eight of its last ten games.
--Cardinals won eight of their last eleven games, but lost last two.
--Under is 9-2-1 in last twelve Cardinal games.
•Brewers-Rockies - 8:40 PM
--Estrada is 0-2, 7.94 in his last three starts.
--Bergman is 0-1, 3.75 in two starts this season.
--Milwaukee won seven of its last nine road games.
--Rockies lost eight of their last eleven home games.
--Last five Estrada starts went over the total.
•Giants-Arizona - 9:40 PM
--Lincecum is 1-1, 7.16 in his last three starts.
--Collmenter is 0-2, 7.00 in his last three starts.
--Giants lost eight of their last nine games.
--Arizona lost seven of its last nine games.
--Under is 8-3 in Arizona's last eleven home games.
•Dodgers-Padres - 10:10 PM
--Haren is 2-3, 5.55 in his last six starts.
--Kennedy is 0-2, 5.84 in his last couple starts.
--Dodgers won five of their last six games.
--San Diego won three of its last four home games.
--Last six San Diego games stayed under the total.
American League
•Orioles-Yankees - 7:05 PM
--Jimenez is 0-4, 6.21 in his last six starts.
--Kuroda is 0-2, 3.44 in his last three starts.
--Orioles won six of their last eight road games.
--Yankees won its last four home games.
--Six of last seven Baltimore road games went over total.
•Tigers-Indians - 7:05 PM
--Porcello is 0-2, 5.68 in his last three starts.
--Kluber is 0-1, 6.48 in his last three starts.
--Tigers lost seven of their last eleven games.
--Cleveland won 11 of its last 12 home games.
--Six of last eight Kluber starts went over the total.
•Astros-Rays - 7:10 PM
--Cosart is 3-1, 4.01 in his last four starts.
--Price is 1-3, 4.84 in his last six starts.
--Astros lost five of their last six games.
--Tampa Bay lost eight of its last twelve home games.
--Three of last four Houston games went over total.
•Mariners-Royals - 8:10 PM
--Iwakuma is 2-1, 1.59 in his last three starts.
--Kansas City won Shields' last eight starts (2-0, 3.00 in last two).
--Mariners lost seven of their last ten games.
--Kansas City won ten of its eleven games.
--Eight of last ten Shields starts went over the total; 11 of Seattle's last 12 games stayed under the total.
•White Sox-Twins - 8:10 PM
--Noesi is 1-1, 8.68 in his last two starts.
--Nolasco is 2-2, 5.88 in his last six starts.
--White Sox lost six of their last eight road games.
--Minnesota lost five of its last six games.
--Nine of last twelve White Sox games went over total.
•Red Sox-Athletics - 10:05 PM
--Doubront was 1-2, 6.66 in his last five starts before going on DL.
--Mills is 3-3, 7.76 in 10 MLB starts, last of which was in 2012. He was 4-2 in 12 AAA starts this season, with a 1.56 ERA. A's acquired him on Tuesday to replaced the injured Pomeranz.
--Red Sox lost eight of their last ten road games.
--Oakland won eight of its last ten home games.
--Under is 10-1-1 in last twelve Boston games.
•Rangers-Angels - 10:05 PM
--Saunders is 0-1, 3.64 in his last three starts.
--Richards is 2-0, 0.43 in his last three starts.
--Texas lost three of its last four games.
--Angels lost five of last seven games, but are 11-3 in last 14 at home.
--Under is 8-2-1 in last eleven Richards starts.
Interleague
•Blue Jays-Reds - 7:10 PM
--Hendriks was 1-0, 2.31 in two spot starts last month.
--Latos threw six shutout innings in his first '14 start Sunday.
--Toronto lost four of its last five games.
--Reds won six of their last eight games.
--Under is 4-0-1 in last five Cincinnati home games.
Diamond Trends - Friday
•SEATTLE is 11-1 (+14.5 Units) against the money line in road games versus a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) this season.
The average score was SEATTLE 5.5, OPPONENT 3.2.
•PITTSBURGH is 12-1 UNDER (+11.0 Units) in road games versus a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better this season.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 3.1, OPPONENT 3.1.
•CLEVELAND is 5-20 (-22.9 Units) against the run line versus an American League starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better this season.
The average score was CLEVELAND 3.2, OPPONENT 6.2.
•DAN HAREN is 5-15 (-15.0 Units) against the money line versus teams outscored by opponent by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was HAREN 3.4, OPPONENT 5.2.
•HIROKI KURODA is 17-3 UNDER (+13.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was KURODA 2.6, OPPONENT 3.6.
•HISASHI IWAKUMA is 17-2 (+13.7 Units) against the run line as an underdog when the run line price is -190 to +165 over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was IWAKUMA 4.2, OPPONENT 2.7.
Situation Analysis of The Day
•Play Against - Road underdogs with a money line of +150 or more (TEXAS) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better on the season (American League) against opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better on the season-AL.
(79-16 over the last 5 seasons.) (83.2%, +49.6 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -187.5
The average score in these games was: Team 5.3, Opponent 2.8 (Average run differential = +2.5)
The situation's record this season is: (10-5, +0.1 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (38-11, +16.8 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (151-57, +44.6 units).
•Play On - All favorites against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line =+115 to +160) (WASHINGTON) - below average hitting team (AVG <=.255) against an average starting pitcher (ERA=4.20 to 5.20) - National League, starting a pitcher who walked <=1 hitters each of his last 2 outings.
(36-14 over the last 5 seasons.) (72.0%, +29.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (42-8 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average run line posted in these games was: Team favored by 1.5, money line price: +121
The average score in these games was: Team 5.5, Opponent 2.6 (Average run differential = +2.9)
The number of games in which this system covered the run line by 1 or more runs was 29 (58% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (3-4, -0.1 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (20-11, +12.8 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (59-68, +3.2 units).
•Play Over - All teams where the total is 7 to 8.5 (BALTIMORE) - bad offensive team (<=4.5 runs/game) against a decent starting pitcher (ERA=4.20 to 4.70) - American League, with a starting pitcher with poor control (more than 2.75 BB's/start).
(31-9 since 1997.) (77.5%, +21.7 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 8.1, Money Line=-103.9
The average score in these games was: Team 5.1, Opponent 5.2 (Total runs scored = 10.3)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 1 or more runs was 22 (55% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-1, +0.1 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (10-3, +6.9 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (15-4, +11 units).
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w-thumbs!^
